In theory, picking winners at Aintree is a lot easier than picking winners at Cheltenham. The fields tend to be smaller and the Cheltenham festival form ought to stand up. Of course it is not always that simple but it is a reasonable place to start.
The opening race of the meeting Liverpool’s version of the Triumph Hurdle. There is no Our Conor on show here but disappointing favourite Rolling Star bids to redeem his reputation. Nicky Henderson’s French import was sent off 5-2 favourite for the Triumph but never really looked like justifying the plunge. Even allowing for the exceptional winner, it was surprising that he could do no better than sixth place. On his previous outing he had beaten the Paul Nicholls-trained Irish Saint by two and a quarter lengths and that horse has been saved for this meeting. Nicholls had been considering going for a 2 ½ mile novice event with him and I just wonder whether he will have enough pace for Aintree’s flat two miles. although there is a question mark about whether he will be fast enough over 2 miles here. Flaxen Flare won the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle decisively but had been well beaten on his two previous starts.
Silviniaco Conti looks like nap material in the Betfred Bowl (2.30). He looked certain to be involved in the finish of the Gold Cup before he fell at the third last and he also has winning form at Aintree. Nicholls had been quite bullish about his prospects before the race and had always emphasised that he would come on a great deal for his victory at Newbury. Had he stood up, I’m sure he would have finished ahead of The Giant Bolster and Cape Tribulation at the festival. Mouse Morris wanted to run First Lieutenant in the Gold Cup and the horse was left flat footed by Cue Card in the Ryanair. He may again have to settle for second place.
The Aintree Hurdle (3.05) looks like being a classic but I’m staying loyal to Champion Hurdle form with Countrywide Flame. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner ran a fine third at the festival and holds Zarkandar on that form. Nicholls is applying blinkers to the latter whilst Grandouet is difficult to weigh up after an early fall in the Champion. I am surprised that The New One is the ante-post favourite and am yet to be convinced that he is a Champion hurdler. I still think that anything over 4-1 is a steal for Countrywide Flame.
I don’t usually bet on Hunter Chase races and I’ll be giving The Foxhunters Chase (3.40) a swerve. Nicky Henderson has chances in the last three races with Kid Cassidy (4.15), Captain Conan (4.50) and Ericht (5.25). Kid Cassidy finished second to Alderwood in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham but has to carry top weight here. I haven’t previously been a fan of Captain Conan but I thought he ran a good race behind Benefficient whilst Ericht finished fifth in a huge field in the Coral Hurdle. It could be worth putting them together with Rolling Star in the hope that the Henderson team has a field day. Stranger things have happened!
Silviniaco Conti (Nap) Even money with Totesport
Countrywide Flame (n.b.) 9-2 with Paddy Power
Henderson Super Yankee:
Rolling Star 5-2 with Bet Victor
Kid Cassidy 13-2 with Totesport
Captain Conan 15-8 with William Hill
Ericht 14-1 with Bet365
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
