Normally when i write a preview with Sprinter Sacre in it, the preview usually goes along the lines of:
“Sprinter Sacre, jumps and he wins.”
Not in this preview however. Don’t get me wrong, hes a class animal, the most gifted of the Melling Chase field and a potential legendary superstar in the not to distant future. He’s unbeaten over fences at 2miles. He was beaten over hurdles at 2m 3f a few years ago, and the distance in the Melling Chase is 2m 4f. When you look at the sorts of horses he’s beaten over the past 2 years, you can ask yourself, what has he actually beaten? Sure, he beat Cue Card by 7lengths at Cheltenham last year, but after that he beat Toubab, Kumbeshwar, Mad Moose and Sizing Europe.
Now, i’m not knocking the horse in any way, he can only beat whats put in front of him. Henderson recently told Channel 4 that the horses parents both have 3m pedigree, and that they’re desperate to try further distances. The Melling Chase will be his biggest task to date. Flemenstar(4-1 Stanjames) and Cue Card come here in top form. Flemenstar has won multiple group 1s between at distances over 2 miles, including over the 2m 4f distance (when he got the better of Sir Des Champs by 5 lengths over Christmas). He took the step up to 3 miles as prep for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but was beaten twice, by small margins. Had he won both those races, he could of quite easily placed at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
One major concern for Flemenstar is the fact he hates to travel. He gets himself so worked up it effectives him mentally. This is why he hasnt left ireland yet, currently trips across ireland to race cause much distress. This isn’t a good sign. No one will know whether he’ll travel soundly to the UK, if he does, he has a great chance of challenging Sprinter Sacre, if he doesn’t, he could even be withdrawn as to not distress the animal. It’s entirely possible they may not even try to travel him over if he shows signs of distress. Hmm.
Cue Card (6-1 Paddy Power) is interesting. He’s beaten all of the horses in the lineup apart from Sprinter Sacre and Flemenstar, obviously. He beat First Lieutenant over 2m 5f last time by 9lengths in the Ryanair at Cheltenham. First Lieutenant prior to that beat Sir Des Champes and Flemenstar in the Gold Cup Trial over 3 miles. Read into that what you will. We know Cue Card handles the ground, the trip and has course form, finishing 2nd in the Mersey Novices Hurdle in 2011. He’s really matured well and is turning into an exciting individual.
What’s the bet? Well, the equation to work out this race is:
If Sprinter Sacre stays 2m4f he wins
If Sprinter Sacre doesn’t stay 2m4f as well as two horses with distance form, he loses.
The fate of the race is in Sprinter Sacres hoofs. He’s currently 1/3 to win and rightly so on reputation alone. This is his toughest test and i could see Sprinter Sacre -> Flemenstar/Cue Card forecasts being the way to play here. I’ve already done an antepost wager on Cue Card on Coral, at 8-1 in a Sprinter Sacre, Flemenstar & Cue Card match bet.
It’s not a race to put your house on, my heart tells me Cue Card can beat Sprinter Sacre, but my head keeps on telling me Sprinter Sacre has pedigree to run over further and can progress yet again. Caution is advised.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
