The Group 1 Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp is the big International race this weekend with a field of 20 set to go to post.
Many of the big names are missing including Derby winner Australia but there is a string of classic winners and Group 1 performers lining up. Taghrooda is almost favourite by default and there is a feeling that she may have peaked in mid-summer with her convincing King George win. That followed a comfortable success in the Epsom Oaks but she wasn’t her usual self when beaten by Tapestry in the Yorkshire Oaks.
Gosden will be hoping that the forecast for good ground is correct as the going has often turned soft at Longchamp in recent Arcs. That wouldn’t suit Taghrooda who has shown all of her form on good ground.
Prix Niel winner Ectot seems to be carrying plenty of confidence after winning on his first start for five months. If you are on at 50-1 that’s great but I wouldn’t be tempted at a miserly 6-1. I like French Oaks winner Avenir Certain who was an easy winner at Deauville last time out but this will be her first race at a mile and a half. Her dam did not really stay beyond seven furlongs and that just puts me off, especially if she is to be held up in such a big field.
I can’t have Treve at any price after a couple of mulish performances and I don’t believe that Ruler Of The World is any better than last year when seventh in the Arc de Triomphe. Frankie Dettori had things his own way in the Trial but this looks a lot tougher.
Surprisingly, the Japanese are yet to win this race but they have three fancied runners. I’m going to side with two of them. Just A Way was breath-taking when winning at Dubai in the spring and has had one warm-up race over a mile in soft ground. Connections admit that he is at his best over a mile and a quarter but he would certainly have stayed another couple of furlongs at Meydan.
Harp Star beat Gold Ship last time out and should defeat the grey again here. She was runner-up in the Japanese Oaks in May when she was given a ridiculous amount of ground to make up in the straight. I am worried about the tactics with her but hopefully they will keep her closer to the pace. The draw is always fascinating for the Arc and that could change the picture but I’m siding with the Japanese duo at the current prices.
Just A Way @7-1 Bet365
Harp Star @8-1 Bet365
Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3 (non-runner no bet applies)
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
