Paddy Power Cheltenham money-back offer

Paddy Power have come unstuck in previous years with their generous money-back offers at Cheltenham and they are at it again this year!

In 2012 they offered refunds on all losing bets in the Arkle Chase if odds-on favourite Sprinter Sacre won. Nicky Henderson’s star chaser made short work of his rivals and the following year is was Hurricane Fly in the Champion Hurdle. Last season Vautour romped to victory in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle with Paddy Power refunding bets on the placed horses.

The firm are to refund all losing bets as a free bet on two races at this year’s festival. Willie Mullins is responsible for the favourite in each with Douvan in the Supreme and Un De Sceaux in the Arkle. With the former currently 7-4 favourite and Un De Sceaux the shortest priced favourite of the meeting at 4-7, it is probably a way of generating some interest in the other runners. The offer applies to all bets up to £50/€50 per customer per race.

The offer will be of particular interest to punters who fancy those closest to the favourites in each race. There is a lot of confidence behind Nicky Henderson’s L’Ami Serge in the Supreme and he is currently trading at 9-2 with the Irish firm. The French import remains unbeaten and was particularly impressive when winning the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time out.

The market is similarly lopsided in the Arkle Chase with Vibrato Valtat offered at 5-1 with 10-1 bar. Paul Nicholls trains the grey who has won his last three races over fences culminating in the Kingmaker Chase at Warwick earlier this month. He cruised clear to beat Top Gamble by four and a half lengths to follow up his win at Kempton in December.

He is available at 11-2 elsewhere but the 5-1 with the refund offer should Un De Sceaux fluff his lines is well worth considering. L’Ami Serge is generally 4-1 with other firms so the 9-2 will make plenty of appeal to supporters of Nicky Henderson’s star novice. There does not appear to be much depth to the field for the Supreme and the market currently revolves around the two horses. With non-runner – no bet also applying, it could be a good time to get on the second favourites.

L’Ami Serge @9-2 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Vibrato Valtat @5-1 Arkle Chase

*Paddy Power special terms apply

Cricket World Cup: Day 10 Recap

England finally got out of the World Cup dungeon but plenty of cobwebs remain after a comfortable win over Scotland in Christchurch on Day 10.  Facing the embarrassing indignity of bowing out before the knockout round after two opening defeats (including a remarkably one sided one to New Zealand on Friday), England just about managed to turn their campaign around thanks to Moeen Ali’s powerful hundred.  England are now all but assured a quarter-final spot if they can get passed Afghanistan and Bangladesh.  Here’s what transpired:

Day 10 Results

England v Scotland

The overcast Hagely Oval conditions encouraged Scotland to bowl first, but they were soon made to regret that decision as England’s openers Ian Bell and Ali piled on a rapid partnership of 172.  The partnership was completely dominated by Ali, who had brought up his second one day hundred just one ball after Bell had fifty to his name.  Ali’s leg side dominant masterclass outlined just how free his mind is compared to those of his colleagues.  He played with confidence, belief and a lack of fear that resulted in quick scoring domination of the opposition attack.  The difference in approach was on display a short time later, after Bell and Ali had both been removed.  Root, Ballance, Morgan and Taylor all struggled for momentum in the powerplay – presumably, fear of being subject to media scrutiny again getting in the way of their natural games (as did the cobwebs).  England did manage to get to 300, Jos Buttler, who should have been promoted once Bell was out, was crucial in helping them get there.

The bowlers did what they needed to.  They didn’t bowl particularly well, but Scotland’s batting efforts have been the most disappointing of the associate nations in this World Cup so far given their strong warm up form. Scotland were all out for 184.  The wickets were share amongst all of the bowlers, with Moeen Ali showing off his all round prowess with a useful two wickets to complete his man of the match display.

Steven Finn’s display will probably ease some concerns over his form.  His three wickets will help block the memories of the two overs he bowled to Brendon McCullum (0-49 if you need reminding).

England 303 for 8 (Moeen 128, Bell 54, Davey 4-68) beat Scotland 184 (Coetzer 71, Finn 3-26, Moeen 2-47) by 119 runs

Champions League Preview 24th February

Chelsea managed to cling on to a 1-1 draw at PSG last week in the Champions League and it is now the turn of Premiership rivals Man City to re-start their European campaign.

City’s inexperience in Europe has cost them dearly in previous seasons but they managed to qualify from the group stages despite a miserable start to their campaign. Manuel Pellegrini will have emphasised the need for discipline to his players after City finished both legs of last season’s clash with Barcelona a man short.

A 5-0 win over Newcastle helped City close to within five points of Chelsea in the title race and will have given them the perfect tonic for Tuesday night’s game.  The return of Yaya Toure from the African Cup of Nations was a key factor in Saturday’s impressive victory but he is suspended from this match. They do at least have a fit front-line with Sergio Aguero and Edin Dzeko both on the mark against Newcastle and new signing Wilfried Bony waiting in the wings.

Barcelona are obviously not short of talent themselves with the daunting prospect of Messi, Neymar and Suarez in a side that has scored 22 goals in their last five away games. A shock 1-0 defeat to Malaga at the weekend dented their La Liga hopes but it was surely no more than a blip.

In Tuesday’s other game, Juventus meet Borussia Dortmund in Turin, a repeat of the 1997 UEFA Champions League final. Massimiliano Allegri’s team are unbeaten in ten home games in Europe and 45 in all competitions. Paul Pogba has been in outstanding form and they look a good bet to take a decisive advantage from the first leg.

Dortmund finished above Arsenal in Group D but got off to a terrible start in the Bundesliga. Two successive victories have helped them out of the relegation zone but it is hardly Champions League form.

There are plenty of special offers floating about on this one. Bet365 are a free in-play bet of up to £50 on the game for anyone betting pre-match. This is only available to customers in the UK and the Republic of Ireland.

New customers to Betfair can have odds of 5-1 about a Barcelona victory or 9-1 if you fancy Man City to triumph in the first leg. This applies up to a maximum stake of £10. New Unibet customers can have 6-1 against a City victory up to £10.

Best Bet

Juventus to beat Dortmund @11-10 Paddy Power

Cricket World Cup: Day 10 Preview

The minnows have all held their own in World Cup matches thus far without quite getting over the line (aside from Ireland against the West Indies, which was arguably predicted).  Today, Scotland are the minnow trying to overcome a more senior test playing side.  However, the English are reeling, so this could be the magic minnow moment of the 2015 Cricket World Cup.

Today’s Matchup

England v Scotland, Hagley Oval (Christchurch – fine but cloudy), starts 11:00am local time

England – $1.06

Scotland – $9.30

“Of all the feeble World Cup displays that England have turned on – a whole raft since 1992 – this defeat by New Zealand, who knocked off their target in 12.2 overs, has to be the most ignominious” – Scyld Berry writing for The Telegraph.

Berry’s phrase pretty much sums up the shambolic England performance that dominated Twitter on Friday night.  England were woefully inept against New Zealand and now need to find the inspiration, the belief and the right team mix that will deliver a much needed win – and with it, a chance of making the World Cup quarter finals – when the play Scotland today.

England would never have expected this much pressure on a game against Scotland, but thankfully, the bookies still have them as unbackable favourites.  England are expected to make changes to the side that crumbled to Tim Southee, with Ravi Bopara and Alex Hales the ones likely to slot in.

Scotland bowled nicely against New Zealand when defending their paltry 162.  Thus, therein lies their main chance of sneaking a win against their more heavily fancied neighbours.  Wardlaw and Davey both swing it, and with Christchurch already looking overcast at the time of writing, England could be in for another test against the swinging ball.

Today’s Bet

We don’t even know if he’ll play, but he should, and because he should we’re backing him no matter what.  Even if he doesn’t play he’ll still score the same amount of runs as some that do.

Therefore, we’re on Alex Hales to top score at $6.00.

Hales was left out…again.  New bet needed.  England batting first so runs on offer if they get past the new ball.  Odds are not worthwhile on Root or Bell.  We’re going against the grain.  Morgan (if he continues to bat 5) to top score at the great odds of $8.50.

Odds from Palmerbet.

Cricket World Cup: Weekend Recap

A bumper weekend of quality cricket has seen a number of teams rip up the form book and reemerge as genuine World Cup threats.  India and the West Indies both scored unexpected wins to again confuse punters as to who will make up the crucial semi-final spots of the lucrative tournament.

Although Cyclone Marcia prevented the favourites Australia from playing, New Zealand and Melbourne stayed dry to allow some cricket.  Check out the weekend results below:

Day 8 Results

1. West Indies v Pakistan

The enigma that is West Indies cricket got the better the woefulness that is Pakistan cricket in a one-sided encounter in Christchurch.  Fans wanting a more interesting World Cup will hope that the win will prompt a change in fortune for the men from the Caribbean, whereas fans supporting Pakistan will be drastically worried.  The West Indies posted 300 batting first for the second game in succession.  Handy contributions from most of their men precluded a dazzling Andre Russell finish who slammed 42 from just 13 balls.  Earlier, Dinesh Ramdin and Lendl Simmons both scored fifties in a crucial middle over partnership that solidified a precious position of 152/3, which could have initiated a wobble.

A middle order wobble may not have mattered anyway as Pakistan crumbled to just 160 in reply.  Jerome Taylor’s fast start reduced Pakistan to a remarkable 1/4.  Just to be clear, that is, 4 wickets down for a solitary run.  There was no way back.  Pakistan did get to 160 – Umar Akmal scored an overdue half centre as did Maqsood, but there was never a contest.  Andre Russell also picked up three wickets to take man of the match honours.

The West Indies will be satisfied with their day’s work but await anxiously news on Darren Bravo’s injured hamstring.

West Indies 310 for 6 (Ramdin 51, Simmons 50, Russell 42) beat Pakistan 160 (Akmal 59, Maqsood 50, Taylor 3-15, Russell 3-33) by 150 runs

2. Australia v Bangladesh

Day 9 Results

1. Afghanistan v Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka overcame another minnow led scare in the Cricket World Cup on Sunday.  Not for the first time, an associate nation looked to be getting the better of test playing nation before class, luck and composure got the Sri Lankans (in this case) home.

Afghanistan were at one stage 128/2 and looking good for a handsome first innings total.  But before they could build any real momentum, Matthews, Malinga and Lakmal removed their key men before they could make the big scores that win games.  Mohammad Stanikzai was Afghanistan’s best with a well made 54, but his wicket was the catalyst of the slide.

Sri Lanka made very hard work of the gettable total.  At 18/3, with Dilshan, Thirimanne and Sangakkara all back in the pavilion, an upset looked possible.  It looked likely even when Karunaratne also fell, in a wicket that had the Afghan’s doing cartwheels (literally).  The fairytale wasn’t forthcoming mind you.  The guile of Mahlea Jayawardene and the power of Thisara Perera steering Sri Lanka home to win by 4 wickets.  Jayawardene scored an even hundred, while Perara made a brutal unbeaten 47 to wrap things up with 10 balls to spare.

Sri Lanka 236 for 6 (Jayawardene 100, Perera 47*, Hamid 3-45) beat Afghanistan 232 (Stanikzai 54) by four wickets

2. India v South Africa

Wow! We didn’t see this one coming.  India gave a huge MCG crowd every reason to cheer by knocking over a strong South Africa in emphatic fashion.  Cast aside at the start of the tournament after a disappointing tour down under, the Indians are now emerging as genuine title contenders after a pair of excellent wins.  Led by Shikhar Dhawan, who scored a well-paced 137, full of hooks and pulls, India cruised along to 307.  Virat Kohli contributed too, he scored 46, but Ajinkya Rahane’s 60 ball 79 was the real supporting act gem at the tail the innings.

South Africa struggled; they’ll be talk of the dreaded ‘choke’ term entering their minds / becoming a possibility.  The case never really got going, and surprisingly, none of their big game players Amla, du Plessis or de Villiers have managed to score the expected big runs.  Certainly not on the Dhawan scale.  The scale that put bowlers under pressures and becomes the difference between 200 scores and 300 scores.  Dhawan was the difference, and South Africa need confidence.  (They’ll also monitor an injury to Vernon Philander.)

South Africa have gone out to $5.00 to win the World Cup at Bet365.

India 307 for 7 (Dhawan 137, Rahane 79) beat South Africa 177 (Du Plessis 55, Ashwin 3-41) by 130 runs

Premiership Preview Feb 21st – 22nd

After last week’s FA Cup matches, the Premiership returns this weekend as Chelsea and Man City renew their chase for the title.

The Blues maintained a 7-point advantage thanks to Willian’s 89th minute winner against a stubborn Everton side last week. They are at home to struggling Burnley while City welcome Newcastle to the Etihad in the late kick-off. Chelsea will be eager to apply the pressure on Manuel Pellegrini’s side by stretching their advantage to ten points.

Chelsea fought out a 1-1 draw in Paris on Tuesday, albeit with a rather negative display. Diego Costa looked a bit rusty after his three-match ban for the stamping incident against Liverpool and will be looking to improve on his performance on Saturday. Burnley have been playing well without much reward in recent weeks. Even if they do break the Chelsea back line, the chances are that the Clarets will concede. The value may be in the goalscorer market with Juan Cuadrado impressing in his limited playing time so far. This could be the ideal platform for the Colombian to open his account for the Blues in a comfortable home win.

City should beat Newcastle, especially now that Sergio Aguero has rediscovered his shooting boots. Two goals against Stoke should have cleared away any cobwebs and he can hit the target again so ensure that City hang on to Chelsea’s coat tails.

There are two cracking games on Sunday with Tottenham facing West Ham and Southampton at home to Liverpool. The Hammers took a beating at West Brom in the Cup while Spurs spluttered to a 1-1 draw against Fiorentina in the Europa League. Sam Allardyce’s side have been suffering with injuries recently and could be on the receiving end of another hiding at White Hart Lane. Mauricio Pochettino tried to rest Harry Kane on Thursday, ironic considering he was a regular starter in Europe at the start of the season before forcing his way into the side. No prizes for imagination but Kane can score in another home win.

Liverpool have scraped a couple of nervous victories with goals from Mario Balotelli recently and it will be interesting to see whether he makes the line-up on Sunday. He did himself no favours with his insistence on jumping the queue to take the penalty. Southampton were unlucky not to get a result at Anfield at the start of the season and can make amends here.

Juan Cuadrado (Chelsea) to score at any time @9-4 Betfred

Chelsea 3 Burnley 1 @12-1 Bet365

Sergio Aguero (Man City) to score first @7-2 Betfair

Sergio Aguero to score 2 or more goals @19-5 Boylesports

Man City 4 Newcastle 2 @50-1 Betfred

Tottenham 3 West Ham 1 @14-1 Coral

Harry Kane (Spurs) to score first @7-2 Coral

Southampton to beat Liverpool at 8-5 Paddy Power