Author: Online Betting Pro

I am a punter that loves to follow the horse both in Australia and the United Kingdom. I enjoy writing about sports betting and also casino, poker and bingo. In my spare time I like to keep fit by playing football and going for long bike rides. I also like to travel the world and see amazing place s and meet wonderful people along the way.

Benfica vs. Dortmund – Goal Fest on the Cards?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Champions League returns this Tuesday with a raft of exciting match-ups. While we have seen teams like Bayern and Arsenal play each other almost too frequently in recent years, this is the first time we have seen these two titans of European football coming together in a UEFA Champions League game. An intense, high-scoring game seems likely.

Dortmund

Despite a challenging ongoing domestic campaign, fourth in the Bundesliga, Dortmund were successful in powering through a group seemingly dominated by champions Real Madrid. A brace of 2:2 draws against the Spanish Giants, 14 goals in two games against Legia Warsaw and a double over Sporting Lisbon saw them top their group by away goal differential. Unlike some, Dortmund was actually rewarded for finishing top of their group with a draw against an opposition who they will feel they have every chance of progressing against.

Dortmund will again be looking to frontman Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to provide the impetus for a win against the Portuguese champions. With 15 goals 13 matches, Aubameyang is one of the form strikers currently playing in Europe; his combination of speed, strength and skill is proving to be all but unstoppable. Any chance of a result for Benfica will rely on their ability to frustrate him.

While Aubameyang will almost certainly start next Tuesday, Borussia will potentially have to deal with a number of key absences: Sven Bender, Lukasz Piszczek, Marco Reus, Marcel Schmelzer and Mario Gotze are all in doubt, while Nuri Sahin may be fit to make a return.

Benfica

Currently sitting top of Primeira Liga and looking to defend their title, Benfica has been enjoying some quality form this season. Unlucky to be pipped to top of Group B by Napoli in a group that could have gone any number of different ways, they will likely be thankful to not be facing Real Madrid, a prospect the Italians are no doubt relishing.

In squad with a number of established goal scorers and playmakers, Benfica will be looking to Konstantinos Mitroglou and Pizzi to provide the spark and ability needed to put their team past Dortmund’s quality. Benfica’s injury list is small, compared to Borussia, with Lisandro Lopez and Eduardo Salvio the only players in doubt for Tuesday.

The value

Picking apart the value here was always going to be a challenge, with no head to head data to speak of, and with erratic Dortmund so capable of both scoring and conceding with gusto. The Germans did, however, play Sporting twice in the group phase, winning both games 2:1. This gives us a slight idea how Dortmund fair against Portuguese opponents, although Benfica is a different animal to their bitter rivals.

While the instinct would be to predict goals here, the first leg of CL knockouts so often involves both teams playing conservatively, seeking each other out and trying to minimise the scoreline. Despite this, I think Dortmund will prioritise getting an away goal, potentially at the risk of conceding: BTTS is at 7/10 with Bet 365, Dortmund Win & BTTS/Yes at 10/3, and 5/1 for Benfica all seem like good value, depending on your view. Considering the injuries Dortmund may be facing, it could well be worth backing the slight underdogs at home.

 

Will PSG Topple the Mighty Barcelona?

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The Champions League is set to return after its traditional Christmas and New Year break. We have now reached the knockout stages. The pick of the last-16 ties is clearly between Paris St Germain and Barcelona. With the departure of several key players, PSG is no longer the force they have been in recent seasons.

Their league position sees them tied with Nice and three points behind Monaco. In recent seasons with the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic leading the line, they have been catering to the French title. Those days appear to have gone and this leaves this current PSG team as significant underdogs against Barcelona.

Spanish Clubs are Dominating

The big three of Spanish football of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have been dominating the Champions League in recent seasons. Madrid lifted the trophy in 2014 and 2016 with Barcelona winning in 2006, 2009, 2011 and again in 2015. Meanwhile, Atletico has been beaten finalists in 2014 and 2016. There have been two all-Spanish finals in the past three seasons and only a fool would back against that again.

Barcelona with their triple strike force of Suarez, Messi and Neymar have proved tough to stop. However, they are struggling to keep pace with rivals Real Madrid in the league. So both Barcelona and PSG have dropped a level since last season. The first leg between PSG and Barcelona will be held in Paris. PSG must at least go back to the Nou Camp with a draw to have any chance.

Looking for the Best Bets

So just why do Barcelona win so many matches? The answer is obvious. Looking back through their matches this season and with the odd exception, they always score. Even in defeat they still manage to score. The basic fact of a football match is that if you can score, your opponents must score at least twice to beat you. This is why Messi, Neymar and Suarez have been such powerful acquisitions for Barcelona.

It is tough to see how PSG can stop Barcelona from scoring but two bets stand out above all others. The first one is the 11-10 offered by BetVictor for a Barcelona victory. Even as the away team these are good odds. The second bet is for Barcelona to be ahead at half time and at full time. Bet365 are quoting 9-4 for that bet.

The fact of the matter is that while both teams have slipped this season, PSG has slipped further. Barcelona has had several key losses this season and have been very un-Barcelona like at times. They will still have far too much for PSG and will comfortably go through over two legs.

City to Keep Winning in a Goal Fest

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ME and odds-on favourites away from home in the Premier League don’t usually go hand in hand but there is a lot to like about Manchester City this week when they make the long journey down to the south coast to face struggling Bournemouth.

It’s a Premier League coupon that’s littered with heavy odds-on pokes but the 1.50 that is available with Stan James on City for this one looks one of the better of the short prices.

It’s very rare that I would suggest a play on any side that is odds-on away from home in still the most competitive league in the world, but I am expecting totally different ends to the season for this two and it’s hard not to get involved.

Last weekend City left it late to beat Swansea 2-1 at the Etihad with two goals from wonder kid Gabriel Jesus, and despite what’s been a disappointing Premier League campaign, they still remain in third position in the table and arrive on the south coast with three successive wins under their belt.

In recent weeks, manager Pep Guardiola has let his star-studded side off the shackles and City games for the remainder of the season will be good ones to watch.

In their last three wins City has scored an impressive nine goals and getting with goals certainly looks the way to profit at the Vitality.

Nine of City’s last ten matches have seen over 2.5 goals feature and at 1.57 with Stan James again that looks the banker in the match for me as it’s also been a winner in 11 of Bournemouth’s last 13.

Bournemouth is 7.00 with William Hill to win this game, and despite a win at home to Liverpool and an impressive home draw with Arsenal, that is not a price that I would go anywhere near with their current form.

The Cherries are in real danger of being dragged into a relegation battle. With no wins in their last six matches and a staggering 19 goals conceded in those matches, this is certainly worrying times for Eddie Howe.

At the weekend Bournemouth defended like school kids in the 6-3 defeat against Everton, and another freaky result looks on the cards but with the majority of goals for the visitors, so I also like City -1.5 goals on the Asian handicap at 2.20 with Bet365.

City have to go all out and win every remaining game now in Premier League, something that they are more than capable of doing since the arrival of new Jesus; he could be the answer to their prayers and Bournemouth need to stop the rot or they will be in the Championship, something I am not sure they can do.

Global Tens Rugby Betting Guide

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After the controversy (in New Zealand anyway) surrounding the Wellington Sevens (poor crowd) and the NRL Nines (poor crowd), another reduced rugby tournament was hoping to fly under the radar of controversy. However, it hasn’t played out that way for the Global Tens being held in Brisbane this weekend. Instead, the promoters have been criticised for the lack of international players (particularly All Blacks) on show.

Despite the negative publicity, the Tens shapes as an excellent day out for punters. Let’s take a look at the teams involved and their chances:

Blue Bulls

Odds: $17

Players to Watch: The Bulls bring a raw but talented side to Brisbane, led by the superb Springbok flanker Jacques Potgeiter. But don’t expect to recognise many other names in the team sheet.

Chances: Getting out of a pool that includes the highly fancied Brumbies and New Zealand’s Highlanders is going to be pretty tricky. Will not be a factor.

Blues

Odds: $13

Players to Watch: Auckland has called upon former All Black Rene Ranger to lead the side. He’s joined by current ABs outside back, George Moala, and former Kiwis rugby league international Matt Duffie.

Chances: While they have some experience in the faster format thanks to their Sevens recruits, we feel as though they lack the x-factor to win close games (sorry Rene, your x-factor is too old). Don’t discount, but maybe just short of the top tier.

Brumbies

Odds: $10

Players to Watch: The Brumbies have gone with just the eight Wallabies (or ex-Wallabies) in their side. Tevita Kuridrani is the best of them, but Henry Speight and Scott Sio are also handy additions. Head coach, Stephen Larkham is also suiting up as a wildcard pick with former dual international, Andrew Walker.

Chances: Part of a trio of Australian sides all given the same chances by the bookies, the Brumbies have a talented side and could be the dark horses in the competition. Keep in your consideration.

Chiefs

Odds: $7

Players to Watch: Liam Messam, Hikawera Elliott, Brad Weber all have AB experience while Tim Nanai-Williams should thrive in the format.

Chances: Look very good on paper and could feature in the finals of the fledgeling tournament. A well-structured squad and set to be expertly led by double Commonwealth Games gold medalist, Messam.

Crusaders

Odds: $7

Players to Watch: Scott Robertson has got current AB Seta Tamanivalu at his disposal, who will play alongside a largely inexperienced setup. There will however, be plenty of interest in one signing, former Wallaby, Digby Ioane.

Chances: We don’t have them as high up on the list of contenders as some do, but should still make the knockout phases.

Highlanders

Odds: $9

Players to Watch: The challenge is not to highlight players to watch, it’s to find players that you recognise, especially in the backline. Tevita Li and Matt Faddes are speed merchants, they should entertain, even if you haven’t heard of them.

Chances: At $9 the bookies give them a chance but we don’t. They’ll struggle against all.

Hurricanes

Odds: $5.50

Players to Watch: Nehe Milner-Skudder and Cory Jane are rugby royalty and could set alight the festival tournament. While Jane’s reaching the end of his career, Milner-Skudder is just getting started (albeit returning from injury).

Chances: Rightly the strong favourites and will be there or thereabouts come Sunday.

Melbourne Rebels

Odds: $21

Players to Watch: The Rebels have five Wallabies but none of them particularly good. More pleasing is the inclusion of Twitter expert and former Australian vice-captain Morgan Turinui.

Chances: About as good as their chances in the regular Super Rugby season – they were eighth of ten in the Australasian conference last year.

RC Toulonnais (Toulon)

Odds: $11

Players to Watch: Australian’s Drew Mitchell and James O’Connor return to lead a side that also features pacific powerhouses, Alesana Tuilaga and Josua Tuisova and Japan test fullback Ayumu Goromaru.

Chances: Higher than most are giving them credit for if they can overcome the travel.

Reds

Odds: $10

Players to Watch: Chris Latham was born for this format, but just ten years too late. The legendary fullback is the wildcard inclusion and will help players like Karmichael Hunt, rising sensation Taniela Tupou (Tongan Thor) and key new NRL recruit Lachlan Maranta adjust to the game.

Chances: Not bad at all. At their Suncorp home, the Reds should definitely factor into your picks.

Tama Samoa

Odds: $26

Players to Watch: The Tama Samoa squad features eight Manu Samoa players and two from the Manu Samoa Sevens, including Sevens captain Tila Mealoi and try scoring machine Samoa Toloa

Chances: Mainly in the tournament for experience rather than for competitiveness, but might surprise some teams with their Athleticism which is well suited for a Sevens style of game.

Waratahs

Odds: $10

Players to Watch: Australia’s best Israel Falou headlines a Waratahs side that the bookies are giving half a chance. The lanky ball runner is ideally suited to the open fields Tens and will call upon his league and AFL experience in ripping teams apart.

Chances: They’ll make the finals but could be too reliant on Falou. Worth a punt.

Western Force

Odds: $26

Players to Watch: Wallabies Tatafu Polota-Nau and Luke Morahan are the mainstays, while Brisbane fans will get a first look at NRL sensation Curtis Rona as he makes his Force debut. Isi Naisarani is one to watch too.

Chances: Next to none. Even club legend Mat Hodgson won’t pull them out of the depths of pool play.

Wild Knights

Odds: $51

Players to Watch: Former Wallabies playmaker Berrick Barnes and emerging talent Ben Gunter are the overseas stars, and try-scoring machine Akihito Yamada is the local star.

Chances: Robbie Dean’s Wild Knights side are the rank outsiders with bookmakers giving them no chance of imitating their national team’s epic run during the 2015 World Cup (they beat South Africa remember). We agree with the bookies.

Swansea v Leicester: Basement Battle of the Two Cities

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It is widely lauded by all and sundry as being the greatest league in the world. But while at the top end of the table Chelsea Football Club looks to be cantering towards a sixth title, it is at the foot of the Premier League table where all the real drama and excitement seems to be currently being generated.

And at 1600 hours GMT on Sunday afternoon, the drama doesn’t get much more tense as reigning Premier League champions Leicester City travel to South Wales to face fellow relegation-threatened Swansea City in a hugely significant match for both teams. It promises to be a real nail-biter for both sets of supporters with the clubs equal on 21 points and sitting uncomfortably just a single point clear of the dreaded drop zone.

Swans searching for home comforts

New Swansea boss Paul Clement, who has spent much of his coaching career to date looking down on the rest of the league table as Carlo Ancelotti’s assistant at Chelsea, PSG, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, has taken to management at the wrong end of the table like a duck to water.

Three wins from four league matches in January including a thrilling first ever away victory over Liverpool at Anfield has breathed new life into a Swansea team who had looked doomed to relegation under Clement’s predecessors Francesco Guidolin and Bob Bradley. And the Swans were desperately unlucky not to emerge from last Sunday’s visit to Manchester City with a potentially precious point, Gabriel Jesus’ injury time winner cruelly denying them at the last.

Before Clement’s arrival, Swansea’s home form had made for uneasy reading with just eight points taken at the Liberty Stadium, a poor return given their record of just five home defeats the previous season. The in-form club is now 6/4 with Coral for the drop while Sunday’s opponents Leicester are slightly longer odds at 2/1 with William Hill to complete a rapid fall from grace and finish in the bottom three just 12 months after topping the pile so thrillingly.

Foxes in desperate need of first away win

The last time Leicester won a Premier League match away from home, against Sunderland last April, the club was motoring towards a first ever top division title win. Now just 10 months on, the deposed champions have yet to register a league win on their travels all season, after boasting a record of just two losses on the road in 2015-16.

To say it has been a disappointing defence of their trophy would be bordering on the understatement of the millennium. And despite Foxes boss Claudio Ranieri getting the dreaded vote of confidence earlier this week, he remains the favourite ahead of Middlesbrough’s Aitor Karanka to be the next top-flight manager to lose his job, registering as short as 6/4 with BetVictor.

On current form, Swansea should go into his match as overwhelming favourites for victory given their recent promising results and Leicester’s continuing awful form. Yet, Bet365 are still offering tasty odds of 6/4 for a home win while Leicester is 21/10 with BetVictor to finally register a first away win of the campaign.

And talking of decent odds, how about this for a potential money maker? With Leicester having lost four matches in succession on the road with no goals scored and 10 conceded, serious consideration should be given to having a small flutter on Swansea keeping a clean sheet on Sunday, with odds of 9/4 on offer from Bet365.

With some difficult matches lying in wait for both clubs, a defeat for either would significantly deepen relegation worries. It promises to be a close but nervy encounter.

Blue Army to Breach Claret Fortress: Betting Preview

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Hopeless (and winless) away from home, Burnley have already won at Turf Moor on nine occasions in this league campaign. As a result, the Clarets occupy a respectable mid-table spot as the 2016/17 season approaches its final third.

Home comforts will be an important asset for Burnley this weekend, with league leaders Chelsea imminently coming to town.

One step closer for Conte

Antonio Conte has forged a Chelsea side that looks unstoppable at present. Already, most pundits agree that Chelsea will be runaway champions, with the West London club boasting an at-times unplayable front three. Chelsea also possesses a fantastic Premier League record against Burnley, conceding just one point to the Lancashire side since 2009/10.

With momentum firmly in favour of the visitors, most respected bookmakers are offering nothing better than 2/5 for a Chelsea win. Meanwhile, a braver bettor can back a not unthinkable draw at 15/4 with Bet Victor.

A trip down Memory Lane?

With Burnley fired up, Sunday’s match could easily see a repeat of 2014/15’s opening weekend emerge.

On the evening of 18 August 2014, Burnley made a blazing start against Chelsea. Scottish-Canadian midfielder Scott Arfield opened the scoring on just 14 minutes and Turf Moor erupted. Sadly for the Clarets, the good times were short-lived.

The visitors roared back to win 3-1 that night. However, this Burnley side is eminently stronger than the relegated rabble of two seasons ago. With that in mind, the smart money is on Burnley’s top goalscorer Andre Gray to be the man who lets Chelsea know they have a real game on their hands. Gray is currently 11/1 with Betfred in the First Goalscorer market.

Burnout for the Burnley boys

Odds of up to 17/5 (Bet Victor) are available for a level half time score, followed by a Chelsea win. Chelsea’s superior fitness will be the telling factor where stamina is concerned. That noted, bettors should respect the fact that this Burnley squad has a sufficient team ethic to remain level with Chelsea until half time.

Such a bet could also combine potently with the 2+ Goalscorer market, as the league’s most improved player prepares to take centre stage once again.

Healthy Hazard

Eden Hazard is flourishing in his new role. Under Conte’s system, he has used his athleticism and ball control to more efficiently turn midfield play into all-out attack. This should work extremely well against a Burnley defence which rode its luck in the last home game against Leicester.

On paper at least, it is a farce of a matchup between Hazard and his likeliest personal opponents – Michael Keane and Matt Lowton. This is reflected in unusually short (yet tempting) odds of 17/2 with Bet 365 for Hazard to enjoy a two-goal Sunday salvo.

Predicting the unpredictable

Sky-subscribing Chelsea acolytes, from Quito to Queenstown, should enjoy a fascinating encounter on the big screen. It will be a sign of true championship credentials if Chelsea can break down a resolute Burnley side on hostile turf.

Burnley will surely put up a fight, so the official Betcirca prediction for this encounter is Burnley 2-3 Chelsea (available at 33/1 with Stan James).

Picture Source: Wikipedia Commons / Credit: Aleksandr Osipov