Online Betting Pro, Author at Free Bets And Sports News.

Super Bowl contestants’ strengths, weaknesses and recent history analysed

Posted on 2017-02-01 by Online Betting Pro

The countdown is on to Super Bowl LI and the bookmakers have made the New England Patriots clear favourites to beat the Atlanta Falcons. But this should prove to be a ferocious battle between the league’s best offence and its best defence and it really could go either way. It promises to be a great game, and we have compiled some essential information to arm yourself with before placing your wager:

Form

Without a doubt, New England has been the best team in the league this season. They were without Tom Brady for the first four games due to suspension but still went on to finish 14-2 in the regular season. New England simply breezed the playoffs, winning by 18 points in the Divisional Round and 19 points in the Conference Championship. Atlanta won their final four games of the regular season to finish 11-5 and qualify as second seeds to the playoffs. They also annihilated the competition, winning by 16 points and then 23 points despite facing two very tricky opponents.

Strengths

The Falcons have had by far and away the best offence in the league this season. In fact, their regular season offensive record is the eighth best in the history of the NFL, with 33.8 points per game. In the playoffs they kept it going, beating the Seahawks 36-20 and the Packers 44-21. New England has the league’s best defence by a considerable distance. They gave up just 15.6 points per game in the regular season, so it really is a case of unstoppable force meets immovable object.

Weaknesses

Atlanta’s defence has not been great this season. It caused them to lose five games in the regular season, and even when they were winning they were conceding a lot of points and scraping victories thanks to the strength of their offence. But their defensive form improved considerably in the playoffs and they kept two excellent offences relatively quiet. For the Patriots, there are no real weaknesses. Their defence is superb, but so is their offence. The only worry for Pats fans might be the absence of Rob Gronkowski, the record-breaking tight end who misses the game through injury.

Star Players

Leading the charge for New England is Brady, widely accepted as the best quarterback of all time. He has the experience, having led his team to seven Super Bowls, winning three of them, and he has the skill to take this questionable Falcons defence apart. Defensively, Malcolm Butler and Ron Ninkovich will make life extremely difficult for the Falcons. Atlanta’s star is undoubtedly Matt Ryan. He led the Falcons to 580 regular season points, putting them 71 clear of the second best team offensively, the Saints, and he did it with exceptional consistency and stats that lead all QBs in the league this season. But he has a lot of help from Julio Jones, who is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL and a key part of this offence.

Key clashes

The obvious clash is between the league’s two outstanding QBs. Ryan leads Brady in passing yards, passing touchdowns and pass completion this season, but Brady has that vital experience and has a higher all-time passer rating. The clash that determines it could be Butler v Jones. Butler has shut down many of the league’s best wide receivers this season and if he does a similar job on Jones the Super Bowl is New England’s. This is old hat for Pats coach Bill Belichick, coaching his seventh Super Bowl, and he has great tactical nous, but Falcons coach Dan Quinn will come at him, and that is the best way to take on New England, so it should prove a tremendous tactical battle.

History

What can the history books tell us about who might win this game? While Atlanta is the league’s hottest team right now, the Pats are historically the best team in the business. Belichick and Brady can be trusted in the big games, while there are more question marks over Ryan and Quinn. In four previous games, Brady has never lost to the Falcons, so he goes in with the perfect record. The Pats should win but expect a tight game. The favourite failed to cover the spread in five of Brady-Belichick’s six previous Super Bowls, and if you are looking at spread betting history is with Atlanta (who are -3), as the underdog has covered the spread in 13 of the past 16 Super Bowls.

NFL Super Bowl: Early Lines Make Patriots Favourites

Posted on 2017-02-01 by Online Betting Pro

Super Bowl LI is looming and bookmakers have released early lines on the biggest sporting event in the American calendar. The New England Patriots are early favourites to win it for a fifth time, but face stern competition from the Atlanta Falcons and there is plenty of value to be had for NFL fans ahead of what promises to be a ferocious battle.

Early Lines

Leading bookmakers have made the New England Patriots the favourites and understandably so as they have been the most impressive team in the league this season. They breezed through the regular season with the league’s best record, despite missing QB Tom Brady for the first four games through suspension over the Deflategate fiasco, and have been untroubled in reaching the Super Bowl. They are expected to win it and the prices being touted are pretty good: Bet365, Ladbrokes and Boyle Sports are offering 20/31, Sky Bet, Coral and Betfred have 8/13 and William Hill has 5/8. You can make a healthy margin by jumping on the Patriots if you think they have what it takes. Atlanta is serious underdogs here and William Hill is offering the best price: 7/5 on a win for the Falcons.

Las Vegas has set the point spread at +3 for the Pats (-3 for the Falcons) and many bookmakers, including Bet365, have 10/11 on both outcomes. Sky Bet, Paddy Power and William Hill are all offering 5/6 on the Falcons +3 and even money on New England -3. Vegas expects it to be an exceptionally high-scoring game and has set one of the highest points totals lines in recent memory at 58 points. Sky Bet has the best odds on over 58.5 (evens), while Betfred and William Hill have the best price for under 58.5 (10/11).

Projections

If you take the season averages of the Pats and Falcons, they are on 61 points combined per game. But while the Falcons have the league’s highest scoring offence (and the Pats are not far behind on 27.6 points per game), the Patriots have the best defensive record, having given away just 15.6 points per game in the regular season. The Falcons’ defence has also hit form at just the right time, conceding far fewer points in recent weeks than they did earlier in the season. For that reason, the under 58.5 points looks good with Betfred and William Hill.

It promises to be a fantastic game, with two great offences going up against one another, and solid defences making life difficult for them. In Tom Brady and Matt Ryan, it pits two genuine superstars up against one another. They have been two of the best quarterbacks in the league this season and both deserve a Super Bowl berth. It is likely to be a close game. But when push comes to shove, the Patriots should have just a bit too much offensively for the Falcons and can outscore them.

Brady and co took apart a very strong Steelers defence in such a clinical fashion in the Conference Championship game, and it augurs well going into the Super Bowl for them. Atlanta’s defence has improved in recent weeks but has still been allowing some high points scores (21 against the Packers, 20 against the Seahawks, 32 against the Saints) and New England are better offensively than those teams. The Pats have been superb defensively, giving away just three points against the Broncos and then against the Jets towards the close of the regular season. They will concede more points against a formidable Falcons offence – containing Ryan, Julio Jones, Tevin Coleman and Devont Freeman – but the team with the better defence usually wins the Super Bowl and this year that is New England. Either way, it should prove to be a tight game decided by a slender margin, so it looks better to play New England outright rather than on the spread right now as 20/31 still offers good value.

NBA Betting: Washington Wizards Offer Great Value in Southeast Division

Posted on 2017-01-29 by Online Betting Pro

The Golden State Warriors have maintained their dominance in the NBA over the past week and are now 9-1 in their last 10 games. But the real surprise is the form of the Washington Wizards, who have gone 8-2 in their last 10 to become the second hottest team in the league, ahead of the Spurs, Cavaliers and many more excellent teams. It has thrust a spotlight on the Southeast Division, where the Wizards are battling the Atlanta Falcons for supremacy, and right now there is plenty of value to be had in backing the Wizards to win it.

Southeast Division

There are three teams in the running to win this competitive division: the Hawks, the Wizards and the Charlotte Hornets. A couple of weeks ago we said the Hornets looked a poor option at 9/4. That has borne out, with Charlotte going out to 9/2 on the back of a very poor run of form that has left them 3-7 in their last 10. It now looks like a straight fight between the Hawks and the Wizards. If you agree, you are guaranteed a profit by backing both. Bet Victor has 11/8 on the Hawks and 13/8 on the Wizards, so if you back the pair of them with an equal stake, you are guaranteed a healthy margin regardless of which one wins. You just have to hope the Hornets do not enjoy a resurgence, and that is not looking likely right now. Charlotte started the season well and went 20-14 to be in contention, but are 3-9 in their last 12. That leaves them on 23-25 and they are 0-7 on the road in January, so this away form is likely to cost them. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 27-20 and the Wizards are 26-20. Washington is really on a roll right now, so if you only want to back one team, they are the best option as they offer greater value and are soaring.

Atlantic Division

The other division offering a bit of value is the Atlantic, where the Toronto Raptors and the Boston Celtics have the identical record of 28-19. The Celtics are in marginally better form, 10-6 compared to the Raptors’ 5-5, but Toronto is odds-on favourites to win it. Sky Bet, William Hill, Paddy Power and Bet Victor all have 4/6 on the Raptors, while the Celtics are best priced at 6/5 with Coral. Both are interesting options, but the greater value is on the Celtics, and if they can get their defence playing as well as it was last season they can take this division, so they might make a nice double with the Wizards.

Upcoming Games

Wednesday sees the Wizards host a struggling New York Knicks team and they should keep the good form going there with a win. On the same day, a huge game sees the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the San Antonio Spurs. Both are 7/3 in their last 10 and the Spurs are second in the Western Conference behind only the all-conquering Warriors, while the Thunder are sixth but really knocking on the door of the top four places. It should prove an interesting game and the Spurs will have a tough job containing Oklahoma City’s MVP contender Russell Westbrook, but San Antonio has been in excellent form of late, beating the Cavaliers and the Raptors, and should win this one. On Thursday, the struggling Hornets travel to California to play the Warriors, and you can expect Golden State to crush them, covering a reasonable large spread in the process. On the same day, the in-form Utah Jazz should have too much for the Milwaukee Bucks, who are on a dreadful run, and should also cover a heavy spread there.

Roger And Rafa Return To Game’s Greatest Stage

Posted on 2017-01-29 by Online Betting Pro

Serena Williams is the 2017 Australian Open women’s champion after defeating older sister Venus in last night’s final at Melbourne Park. Tonight, it’s another battle of veteran rivals as Roger Federer resumes his Grand Slam rivalry with Spanish great Rafael Nadal.

Men’s Final: #17 Roger Federer (Switzerland) v #9 Rafael Nadal (Spain)

It seemed unthinkable at the start of the Australian Open that the last two men standing would be a pair of thirty-somethings who dominated the Grand Slam scene in the previous decade. With Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray dispatched in the earlier rounds, great rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal grabbed the opportunity to face-off in their first major final since 2009. On that night, Nadal prevailed and finished the night consoling an emotional Federer in scenes that cemented the legacy of their historic battles. But it’s not as if the pair completely disappeared from the rankings. Rafa was ranked no. 1 as recently as 2014, while Roger finished 2015 at no. 2 and reached the finals of Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. They arrived in Melbourne this year as the no. 9 (Nadal) and no. 17 (Federer) seeds after injury-interrupted 2016 campaigns.

A rich history of rivalry

From the French Open in 2005 to the US Open in 2010, Federer and Nadal shared a staggering 21 Slam titles between them of the 23 available to win (Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro were the only other winners in that period). But in an era where Federer was the sport’s Superman, Nadal was his Kryptonite. The Spaniard owns a strong 23-11 edge in their matches, including going 6-2 against Federer in their eight Grand Slam finals matches. The last time the pair met in a Grand Slam final was at the 2011 French Open, where Nadal won his sixth title. Federer holds the record for the most men’s Grand Slam singles titles with 17, while a win tonight would be Nadal’s 15th, and would break a tie with Pete Sampras for second all-time. Should Nadal win the title here, he will become the first man in the Open Era to win every Grand Slam title twice or more. Federer did win their last match, on indoor hard courts in Basel in 2015, but their dynamic has always favoured Rafa.

Proven performers over five sets

Federer defeated top-10 players Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka on his way to the final, with the latter two going the distance. Two of Nadal’s matches both went to five sets – his third-round battle with young gun Alexander Zverev before requiring almost five hours to dispatch Grigor Dimitrov in the semis. The Spaniard enjoyed two particularly impressive wins against top-10 players Gael Monfils and Milos Raonic where he gave neither a sniff. It’s worth noting that Federer has enjoyed an extra 24 hours of rest since KO-ing Wawrinka but it could be argued that, with a five-year age gap between the Swiss and Nadal, he needs it. An analysis of their Grand Slam head-to-head matches away from clay reveals that this duo has played six best-of-five set matches on hard courts or grass, and four have gone the distance, one decided in four sets, and just one in straight sets. We’ll be taking Nadal straight up ($1.80 with William Hill) and the +41 game-total ($1.85 with Crownbet).

Williams Sisters Face-off in the Ultimate Test of Sibling Rivalry

Posted on 2017-01-28 by Online Betting Pro

The fairytale air surrounding the 2017 Australian Open will continue until the final point on Sunday night with two singles finals for the ages. Tonight (Saturday AEDT), the Williams’ sisters turn back the clock as Serena battles older sister Venus for the crown. On Sunday night, the dream final of Roger Federer v Rafael Nadal will decide the men’s singles titles after both veterans prevailed in five-set semi-finals.

Women’s Final: #13 Venus Williams (USA) v #2 Serena Williams (USA)

Eight years after their last major final, at ages 36 and 35, respectively, Venus and Serena Williams will meet in the Australian Open women’s final. A fortnight ago, it seemed ridiculous to expect such a scenario as Venus hadn’t reached the final at Melbourne Park in 14 years. But Rod Laver Arena is an appropriate venue for the sisters to renew their on-court rivalry at the highest level as it was on this court that they first faced each other in a professional match, way back in 1998. Venus emerged victorious in that second-round match in straight sets, but Serena has long left her pioneering sister in the proverbial dust. In their 27 tour meetings, Serena leads the head-to-head count 16-11 including seven of the past eight.

The rare occasions they’ve met are psychologically painful for both women, and their knowledge of each other’s game is almost total. Their most recent meeting, in the 2015 U.S. Open quarter-finals, was a three-setter. Indeed, more than half of their previous meetings have gone the distance, which is far higher than the three-set average for the WTA tour. Serena typically bulldozed her way through the tournament, without dropping a single set while improving with each match. After a relatively sub-par performance against Barbora Strycova, where she still won in straight sets, Williams roared back to thump arguably the most in-form player in the world right now, Johanna Konta.

Smoother path for Venus

She went to the next level to end the dream run of Mirjana Lucic-Baroni, winning 6-2 6-1. Venus fought back impressively to defeat Coco Vandeweghe, who had previously dumped Garbine Muguruza and defending champion Angelique Kerber out the tournament but had an easier path to the final, playing just two top 40 opponents, and only one seed (Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, 24). Venus took Vandeweghe’s best punches, adjusted to her pace and improving as the match progressed and used her serve and forehand to shut the door. In reality, the 36-year-old is freerolling here and can play with abandon in a match no-one expected see her competing.

In contrast, Serena is a red-hot ($1.80) favourite, she’s playing her least preferred opponent, and she’s desperate for that 23rd major title to leave Steffi Graf behind on the all-time list. The last time she won a Slam, at Wimbledon last year, she dominated her semi against Elena Vesnina and edged Angelique Kerber in the final two days later. It could go the same way in Australia if Serena plays as well as she has throughout this fortnight. She has a slightly worse return game than her older sister, breaking opponents 40.1 per cent in the past 12 months on hard courts, compared to Venus’ 44.7 per cent, but Serena has an immensely better serve, holding 82.5 per cent with Venus at just 67.4 per cent. Serena wins, with three sets the best value (one unit @ $2.90 on Sportsbet).

Man United vs. Hull: Could Mourinho’s Denial Prove Fatal?

Posted on 2017-01-27 by Online Betting Pro

Hull might have edged out Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United side in their recent EFL Cup semi-final, but it was the Red Devils that ultimately progressed to the final.

However, although United are now one step closer to winning their first trophy under Mourinho, their route to finale was less than impressive. What’s more, with Hull set to reappear like a bad dream on February 1 for United’s next Premier League clash, it could be another long night for the Old Trafford faithful.

Of course, if you’ve read or heard anything from Mr Mourinho following his side’s 2-1 defeat to Hull in the second leg of the EFL Cup semi-final, you’ll know that he has a slightly different take on reality. Yes, we know he’s been prone to self-absorbed, fantasy-filled rants in his time, but his latest comments suggest he may be losing touch with reality.

Has Mourinho Lost the Plot?

Speaking after the match, Mourinho insisted that he “only saw two goals” and “it was 1-1”. Now, for anyone with two eyes on the match, it was clearly a 2-1 for Hull. Not only that, but Hull actually had control of the game for large periods of play. Some tactical changes by Marco Silva, plus a goal from loan striker Oumar Niasse, meant Hull looked stronger than they have for much of the season.

In fact, it was some canny substitutions just after half-time that really produced some inspiring performances. Abel Hernandez didn’t get too much time to shine in the 20 minutes he was on the pitch, but his presence certainly gave Hull more attacking impetus. Similarly, Evandro Goebel was able to show some flashes of brilliance, especially with his deliveries into the box. Although Hull still has a lot of work to do if they’re going to pull themselves out the relegation zone, the fact Silva was able to change things up and get a result against United is encouraging.

Teams Can Drown Living in Denial

Now, back to Mourinho. Maybe it was the fact he’d had a few drinks to celebrate his birthday before the match or maybe he just couldn’t believe it was Hull that snapped a 17-game unbeaten streak, either way, his reaction was strange (even by his standards). While it’s fair to say his comments may have been manufactured for the media, denial is a slippery slope. If the man in charge of Man United’s fortunes isn’t willing to acknowledge his team weren’t good enough to beat Hull, then it could lead to issues in the future.

Failing to plug leaks or change tactics just because you “think” they’re good enough is a recipe for disaster. Of course, we all know Mourinho is an accomplished manager. However, if he’s unable to separate his personal pride from any sort of objective reason then United could easily find themselves in trouble. Indeed, when Hull comes to town on February 1 the players will certainly take some confidence from their recent 2-1 win.

Naturally, if United want to play the “past results” game, then there will only be one winner. Of the 11 meetings between the two clubs, United have won nine, drawn once and lost once. With that sort of record, the home side should be practically brimming with confidence. However, we all know that football can be fickle and if the likes of Paul Pogba, Juan Mata and Zlatan Ibrahimovic fall into Mourinho’s trap, things could easily turn sour on Wednesday.

United are Still the Favourites

OK, so what does all this mean? Well, in reality, it might not mean very much. If we look at the facts, United are clearly the better side and they’ve proved that numerous times this season. Subscribing to this philosophy should, therefore, lead us towards a United win. If that’s the case then we have to be prepared to take some fairly uninspiring odds from the top bookies. Sun Bets currently has a win for Mourinho’s men priced at 2/13, while 888sport has a slightly more attractive 2/11.

Of course, if you want slightly more bang for your buck as a United fan, 1-0 or 2-0 with William Hill can be had for 7/1 and 5/1 respectively. However, for our money, there’s a lot of value in backing Hull on this occasion. Does this mean we’re telling you Hull will definitely win? No, what we mean is that the current prices don’t seem to reflect the team’s actual chances of winning.

Don’t be Afraid to Take a Punt

For example, Sun Bets currently has Hull priced at 16/1 for the win. Even under normal circumstances, this is a huge price for a two-team match. So, when you factor in the recent result and a possible mental meltdown from Mourinho, this betting line starts to look even more attractive.

If you like to be a little more cautious, 11/2 (William Hill) on a draw still has a healthy amount of value to it. However, we’ll repeat it again: this doesn’t mean Hull will realistically start the match as favourites. Sports betting is all about finding situations where the odds don’t necessarily reflect reality.

In this situation, it’s clear Silva’s men will be buoyed by their recent success and up for the match in a way they otherwise might not have been. With this being the case, it could pay dividends to go against the grain and take a punt on the underdog when Hull travel to United on Wednesday.

Author: Online Betting Pro