Author: Online Betting Pro

I am a punter that loves to follow the horse both in Australia and the United Kingdom. I enjoy writing about sports betting and also casino, poker and bingo. In my spare time I like to keep fit by playing football and going for long bike rides. I also like to travel the world and see amazing place s and meet wonderful people along the way.

Patriots to Beat Steelers but Pittsburgh to Beat the Spread

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The New England Patriots have breezed to a record sixth consecutive AFC Championship game and now just the Pittsburgh Steelers stand between them and the Super Bowl. It will be a really tall order for Pittsburgh to win this one as the Pats have looked the best team in the league by some distance this season and are 11/8 favourites to win the Super Bowl (Sky Bet).

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers closed the regular season with seven straight wins to finish 11-5, winning the NFC North and qualifying as third seeds for the playoffs. They destroyed the Miami Dolphins in the Wildcard Round and then went on to face second-seeded Kansas City in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs were favourites and we tipped it to be a very close game but said the Steelers would steal it, and that is exactly what happened as they ran out 18-16 winners in a tense affair. Steelers kicker set a postseason record by scoring six field goals to edge it for Pittsburgh by the slenderest of margins. They go into the championship game as underdogs, but they will be emboldened by their recent form.

New England Patriots

New England has had the clearest run to the championship game than any of the other teams still left in the playoffs. QB Tom Brady was suspended for the first four games of the season over his role in the Deflategate fiasco, but it mattered little as the Pats powered to a 14-2 record, the best in the league. It left them as first seed in the AFC – a valuable position they squandered last season – and they sat out the Wildcard Round before securing an easy home game against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round.

Houston finished 9-7 and only scraped through thanks to an injury crisis at Oakland, and Brady duly picked them off. New England ran out 34-16 winners, covering the largest point spread in playoff history, as we suggested they would. Patriots RB Dion Lewis looked sensational as he used his lightning pace to become the first player to score on a rush, a catch and a kick return in a postseason game. With him and Brady firing on all cylinders, the Pats look invincible at present.

Projections

The Patriots beat the Steelers 27-16 in October in the regular season, but you should not read too much into that as Pittsburgh were missing QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is now back at full strength, and the Pats were blessed with the talents of star receiver Rob Gronkowski, who is now injured. The Steelers finished the regular season with the 12th best defence and have conceded just 28 points in two playoff games. Offensively they are superb as Roethlisberger has lots of great passing options, which creates gaps of space all over the field. In Le’Veon Bell they also have one of the league’s best RBs, and he has been sensational in the postseason. New England will need to shut him down to have any chance of winning.

The Steelers, meanwhile, will have to do their best to make Brady uncomfortable, as he is on a roll and has proven himself time and time again in the postseason. It looks like being a really close encounter that the Pats should just about shade, so the 5/12 on offer at Paddy Power on a New England win in front of their home crowd looks a decent bet, despite not providing a great deal of value. To get more bang for your buck, you will have to consider spread betting, and then it gets more complicated. It is not hard to imagine the Pats winning this by around three points, so they might not cover the spread and the 7/10 Bet365 has on Pittsburgh +6.5 looks a really good option as they are a competitive, battling team.

Packers v Falcons Looks Set to be a High-scoring Thriller

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There are just four teams left standing in the NFL playoffs and they are only one game away from the Super Bowl. On Sunday the NFC and AFC champions will be crowned before they go on to meet at Super Bowl LI in Houston, Texas, on February 5. Both conference championship bouts promise to be enthralling contests and first up is the NFC Conference game, which sees the Green Bay Packers travel to the Atlanta Falcons.

Green Bay Packers

The big story of the divisional round was Green Bay’s stunning win on the road against NFC top seeds the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas had by far and away the best record in the NFC and were overwhelming favourites to win the conference. But they came up against a Green Bay side that had become the league’s form team, closing out the regular season with a six-game winning streak to finish 10-6 and qualify for the playoffs as fourth seeds at the top of their division, before thumping the heavily fancied New York Giants 38-13 in the Wildcard Round. Their clash with Dallas was epic, tied at 31-31 with 12 seconds to go when Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers threw a 36-yard pass to Jared Cook, who tapped both feet on the ground before falling out of bounds, leaving Mason Crosby to step up for a 51-yard field goal to seal a 34-31 win. Rodgers played out of his skin, leaving his teammates and the opposition in awe with that final pass. Green Bay will be a formidable opponent for the Falcons on Sunday.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has had a more straightforward route to the conference final. They finished the regular season on 11-6 to end up as second seed and get a bye for the Wildcard Round. They faced a difficult divisional game against the Seahawks but benefited from home advantage – Seattle to Atlanta is a long old trip – and won it comfortably. The 36-20 highlighted the supreme talents of Falcons QB Matt Ryan, and it will be a fascinating clash between him and Rodgers.

Projections

Atlanta will have expected a trip to Dallas to take on the conference favourites, but instead they have home field advantage and host a banged up Green Bay team. It is, however, full of danger and surging with confidence after eight straight wins. It looks set to be a classic. During the regular season, Rodgers and Ryan were ranked one and two for the most touchdown passes, with 40 and 38 respectively, and they are arguably the two most in-form quarterbacks in the NFL at present. These teams met in week eight, when Rodgers and Ryan combined for seven touchdown passes and 534 yards, so it should be a thriller. On that day, the Falcons won 33-32, and it could prove equally close here.

Green Bay are much improved since then and did fantastically well to beat Dallas without Jordy Nelson. But the Falcons are also improving and have the league’s best offence. Both of them are poor defensively and superb in offence, so it should be a high scoring game and the 4/6 Sky Bet is offering on over 57.5 points looks good. If Nelson returns it will provide a great boost for the Packers, but even if he does not get over his injury (cracked ribs) Rodgers has proved that he can throw to anyone and he has the postseason experience to lead the Packers to a victory against the odds.

The Packers are real outsiders here, at 15/8 with Sky Bet and Paddy Power, while the Falcons are 1/2 with Stan James. In all likelihood, it will be a lot closer than that and the Packers could well spring a surprise. If they do lose, it should only be by a slender margin and that makes them look good to cover the spread, so the 5/6 Bet365 is offering on Green Bay +5.5 looks fantastic.

Big Data A Big Hit With Australian Open Followers

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The amount of statistical information that should be released to fans (and, by extension, punters) is vigorously debated in the boardrooms of the major sports. Tennis had lagged behind many of those who’d embraced the concept of empowering their followers with a taste of ‘big data’.

However, the trickle of information from past Australian Opens has turned into a drought-breaking flood thanks to Tennis Australia’s creation of the Game Insight Group (GIG). Among GIG’s findings, based on data collected from the seven primary courts at the past three Australian Opens, Andy Murray had the highest work rate per shot in the men’s game and Gilles Simon the highest work rate per point.

But the stat that shone above all others was that young American star Madison Keys’ average forehand speed ranked first among the women, and ahead of all men except Tomas Berdych. Keys’ average backhand speed was also higher than any of the men. The collection and availability of such data is a huge step in the right direction for the game.
Big guns loaded for second round

The top seeds Angelique Kerber and Andy Murray, as well as Australia’s leading men, return to play on day three of the Australian Open in Melbourne. Bernard Tomic and Nick Kyrgios will close play with late second-round matches on Margaret Court Arena and Hisense Arena respectively. Tomic looks too strong for clay courter Victor Estrella Burgos, likewise Kyrgios in his match-up with Italian Andreas Seppi (a straight-sets win for Kyrgios is worth taking at $1.80 on William Hill).

Stan Wawrinka looked dead and buried down a break in the fifth set before prevailing over Martin Klizan and could face a similar grind against Steve Johnson today (take the +37.5-game total at $1.83 on Sportsbet). For our best of the day, American Ryan Harrison represents terrific value in his second-round showdown against Tomas Berdych. Berdych’s hold/break statistics have slumped dramatically over the past 12 months – today he faces a player who held serve more than 80 per cent in 2016. Harrison can keep this well inside the +5.5 game-line on offer ($1.83 with Luxbet).

Genie’s out of the bottle

The tour’s most experienced woman, Venus Williams, has been given the honour of opening play on centre court today. Williams, playing in her 73rd grand slam (an all-time record) will take on Swiss world no.112 Stefanie Voegele at Rod Laver Arena. This could turn into a real grind – Voegele has now played four successive three-set matches dating back to the qualifiers, winning all of them (take three sets at $2.75 on Ladbrokes). World no.1 Angelique Kerber’s meeting with Carina Witthoeft follows that match. Garbine Muguruza plays US hope Samantha Crawford in the night session on Melbourne Park’s main stadium court. It’s been a low-key start to the Australian Open for glamour girl Eugenie Bouchard. She made an ominous start to her tournament on Monday night with a crushing win over Louisa Chirico. Her opponent today, veteran Shuai Peng, has played little tennis on the main tour over the past two years. The Canadian should get this done fairly comfortably (a straight sets win is $2.10 with Crownbet).

The Bookies Have Got it Wrong at the Etihad

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IT’S a huge match at the Etihad this weekend involving faltering giants Manchester City and fast improving Tottenham Hotspur.

This is as big as it gets for both sides as defeat for the home side would virtually see them unthinkably out of the title race in January, and a win for Spurs will see them as major title contenders if they aren’t already.

On the evidence of what we’ve seen in recent weeks, I am staggered by the prices on offer with the bookies.

City was dreadful in last weeks 4-0 hammering at Goodison Park at the hands of Everton, a defeat which was the biggest ever handed to manager Pep Guardiola, and I just can’t fathom why they are just 2.20 to bounce back with a win at the weekend.

Questionable Guardiola Moves vs. Pochettino’s Young Guns

Guardiola, despite his glowing CV, really hasn’t got to grips with the Premier League at all and his decision to dump England goalkeeper Joe Hart out of the Etihad in favour of Claudio Bravo looks more and more bizarre each and every week.

The former Barcelona and Bayern Munich manager looks a shadow of the suave and confident coach that rocked into Manchester in the summer, and I believe he’s got big problems making the Champions League, yet alone win the title.

Mauricio Pochettino is for me the best coach in the Premier League and his young Tottenham side are getting better and better each week and why they are 3.60 to win this match with Bet365 is anyone’s guess.

The Londoners are in superb form and scoring goals for fun having won their last SEVEN matches and scoring 21 goals in the process; with them also boasting a rock-solid defence, they are crying out to be backed at the prices on offer to add more misery to Pep.

Previous Form

When the two met in October the Spurs came out comfortable winners 2-0, which was only the second time in the last 11 matches between the two where over 2.5 goals wasn’t a winner. With so much at stake, especially for the home side, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score look good at 1.75 and 1.62 respectively.

It’s no surprise that Tottenham’s form has been on the up since the return of England international Harry Kane from injury, and after a hat-trick last week the Hurri-Kane is a good bet at 6.00 with Paddy Power to upstage Sergio Aguero in the goal scoring race with the opener in a match that promises goals.

Confident Pakistan Sniff Series Upset Against Frail Australia

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The WACA in Perth has at times suited the Pakistan cricket team. Offering pace and bounce, the West Australian surface was right up the alley of Khan, Akram and Younis. Now, however, the pace and bounce are likely to trouble the Pakistan batsman and work against the slow bowlers that were so successful for them in the first two games of the series. The end result, favourable conditions for the home side as they seek to overturn the surprise defeat in game two and wrestle back the initiative in the five-game series.

The Series So Far

Australia’s familiar fragilities were again exposed in their shock game two loss. Too reliant on Smith and Warner, and an inability to rotate the strike against Pakistan’s trio of slow bowlers, the Australians made just 220 which was easily chased down by Pakistans top 6. The successful chase was the first win by Pakistan against Australia in any format since 2005 and added renewed interest to a ODI series that had the potential to lose appeal if the hosts ran out to a 2-0 series win.

The game two loss offsets a win in Brisbane by 92 runs, despite Australia not scoring as many as they would’ve liked there too. So a series tied at 1-1, with plenty to play for in Perth.

The Teams

Australia (probable)

1 David Warner, 2 Usman Khawaja, 3 Steven Smith (capt), 4 Travis Head, 5 Glenn Maxwell, 6 Matthew Wade (wk), 7 Marcus Stonis, 8 James Faulkner, 9 Pat Cummins, 10 Billy Stanlake, 11 Josh Hazlewood.

Marcus Stonis has joined the squad from the Melbourne Stars to replace the injured Mitchell Marsh but might miss out if Peter Handscomb is picked and Smith relies on Maxwell and Head to get through their share of overs. Billy Stanlake may also get a second crack because of Mitchell Starc being rested ahead of a busy upcoming schedule. Adam Zappa is the other addition to the squad and could get a run.

Pakistan (probable)

1 Mohammad Hafeez (capt), 2 Sharjeel Khan, 3 Babar Azam, 4 Shoaib Malik, 5 Asad Shafiq, 6 Umar Akmal, 7 Mohammad Rizwan (wk), 8 Imad Wasim 9 Mohammad Amir, 10 Hasan Ali, 11 Junaid Khan.

Unless Pakistan gives Amir a rest, we can’t see them making too many changes to the side that broke a 12-year drought in Australia by winning game two.

The Key Players

Australia

Glenn Maxwell has made useful contributions in the first two games of the series and remains the most dangerous player in the middle order. He’s dangerous because he scores all around the ground, 360 degrees, including behind the wicketkeeper. The unique trait and the fact that he plays so freely against spin has resulted in him being included in the touring squad to India.

Pakistan

Mohammad Hafeez was good with both bat and ball in game two. The stand-in captain, who is getting to the end of his career, will take great pride from the game two win and will be desperate to continue the upsets and maybe even sneak a series win against Australia, in Australia, before he retires. Expect Hafeez to have a big impact in both his disciplines in Perth.

The Match Odds*

Australia– $1.28

Pakistan – $3.75

*All odds from Bet365.

The Prediction

It’s hard to see the Australian’s struggling to post 300 for the third straight game, although we expressed our view that it was unlikely they would get less than 260 in the series after game one and were well wrong. Expect a strong bounce back this time and a big Australian win.

The Best Bets

For one of the best players in the world in all three formats David Warner has had a mediocre start to the series. The swing of Mohammed Amir has had him in all sorts of trouble, but it wasn’t long ago he smashed a century before lunch in the Sydney test. Warner’s well and truly due a score, and at $3.75 he’s nicely priced.

It’s clear after two games that the bowlers who bowl the death overs will pick up some cheap wickets. And after the Australians would have decided to give Imad Wasim more respect, Junaid Khan now looks like a good option to be the top bowler for the tourists. He’s at $4.50.

Michelson Uncertain but Field Still Strong for CareerBuilder Challenge

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Most golfing eyes will be on Abu Dhabi this week as the biggest names tee off in the European Tour. All the other golfing eyes are still probably stretched apart in shock still, reeling at the impressive Justin Thomas and his dismantling of Hawaiian golf courses and fellow PGA Tour pros over the last two weeks.

If you can look away from the European action for a second, or recover from the surprise of Thomas, the CareerBuilder Challenge still has an excellent field to follow. Let’s check out the key talking points from this week’s PGA Tour action:

The Course

The PGA West TPC Stadium course is an absolute brute. Long, difficult and once described by golf columnist Jim Murray as needing “a camel, a canoe, a priest and a tourniquet to get through”. The Pete Dye-designed golf course is over 7300 yards from the championship tees and is often ranked as one of the best courses in America. It often also features in lists of the most difficult courses in America. A stadium course because of the naturally sculpted spectator seating, the course is used to grandstand finishes as the venue for PGA Tour qualifying school tournaments every other year. The reason for the excitement? The island green on the 17th, nicknamed Alcatraz, and the difficult water-logged 18th.

The event’s pro-am format also will utilise PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament course (7,159/72) and La Quinta Country Club (7,060/72) in the first three rounds.

The Defending Champion

Jason Dufner ended a victory drought of nearly 2 ½ years and notched his fourth career victory (and first since winning his sole major at the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill) when he won here last year. His win is largely remembered for the miraculous par he made on 17, known now as an escape from Alcatraz.

Dufner tugged his 8-iron right and instead of having his ball bounce hard off the rocks protecting the green, his ball nestled into a sandy area from which he was able to save par from (almost made two as his chip shot lipped out).

In the end, Dufner won on the second playoff hole, beating Sweden’s David Lingmerth who caught a bad break on the second playoff hole. Dufner’s at $34 to go back-to-back.

The Contenders*

Phil Mickelson $21

Lefty makes his traditional start of the year after a three-month layoff. Phil’s last tournament was the Safeway Open in October, where he earned a share of eighth. Mickelson has both familiarity and history on his side at this course, he’s won the tournament twice and he managed to tie for third here last year. He looks a great option in a relatively weak field. Note, Phil is still recovering from a sports hernia injury and could be in doubt to tee up.

Patrick Reed $12

Reed hasn’t hit anywhere near the form that made him become a Ryder Cup icon late last year – quite simply the putts have stopped rolling in for the feisty American. However, he’s still a threat at a tournament he’s won before (in 2014). Shared sixth place at Kapalua recently despite admitting to feeling “80 percent” after a recent illness.

Hudson Swafford $54

Tied for 13th last week after an opening 62 but a disappointing closing 71. Hits it long and has a nice touch to be able to cope with less than perfect ball striking. Hasn’t missed a cut this season and seems to be popping up on the first page of the leaderboard more often than not recently.

Zach Johnson $21

A 61 in the second round in Hawaii showed he’s on the right track, where he ultimately finished 6th. Johnson has four top-25 finishes in the tournament amongst two missed cuts. Doesn’t need much to get himself going, so his inclusion here is essentially down to the confidence boosting 61 at the Sony Open.

Bill Haas $21

A compelling record at the CareerBuilder, two-time champion (2010, 2015) and the tournament’s all-time money leader, puts Haas near the top of the rankings this week. Boasts an unbelievable thirty-nine consecutive red numbers here since 2008. Record here is also well supported by his start to the season that has seen him go T20-T4-T13-T13.Ready to win this week – a big chance.

Jaime Lovemark $34

Lovemark has picked up in 2017 where he left off in 2016. A tie of fourth last week at Sony followed up a tie for 6th in the RSM late last year. Was leading this tournament last year after round two (ultimately finishing 6th) but has become a much more complete golfer since then. Good all round game suited to the new layout of the CareerBuilder.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

We really like Haas this week. An exemplary record at the CareerBuilder and despite a change in venue has the consistency behind him this season to manage the unsettling layout changes.