Can the Tigers tame the Toffees?

Hull City vs Everton may not be a fixture to arouse the passion except if you come from Hull or Liverpool. However, there are a few interesting bets on offer and is the reason why we are previewing this game. Hull have had a tough season so far. They are clearly going to be one of the teams that will either get relegated or escape by the skin of their teeth. Losing Steve Bruce was a blow and they no longer look the same team without his guidance. Mike Phelan came in to steady the boat but his lack of managerial experience as a number one is proving to be costly.

Time to Make a Move

Hull dare not risk a gap developing at the bottom of the table. History tells us that teams that sit bottom of the league on New Years’ Day rarely survive. Hull City host Everton in what will be a vital festive programme for the Tigers. Everton has been inconsistent of late and the injury time loss to close rivals Liverpool didn’t help.

There are several interesting bets on offer that represent value. Firstly we can see odds of 19-5 from BetVictor for a Hull City victory. Everton has certainly been stronger than Hull this season. The key question is does that really convert to such poor odds for the home team in this fixture? To find odds of almost 4-1 for a home team to win a Premier League fixture is a rarity.

Everton is certainly well below the level of the top clubs and odds of 19-5 do seem like value. The problem with taking such a bet is that Hull is not playing well enough to win many games. You can also get odds of 13-5 on the draw with BetVictor which is another great value bet in our opinion.

Can Everton be backed for Value?

If there is value in backing Hull and the draw then you clearly cannot have it all ways. Something has to give. By sheer definition, backing Everton cannot be value. You can get odds of 4-5 for an Everton victory with Ladbrokes. Those odds are too short given the inconsistency of Everton’s season and the fact that they are the away team.

Even if Everton should prevail and take all three points, those odds are still too short. Betting is about finding the best value bets and not just identifying which team is likely to win. Mike Phelan must realise that his team clearly needs to push on after Christmas and start picking up regular points.

Hull will need to reach at least 35pts to have a realistic chance of surviving. Their current points per game total leave them short of that figure. If Mike Phelan cannot get an increased effort from his players then he could well be the next Premier League manager to get the sack.

Patriots and Raiders battling it out for AFC top spot

The final chapter in the regular NFL season begins on New Year’s Day and fans can look forward to an action-packed schedule full of intrigue. In the AFC the New England Patriots and the Oakland Raiders are locked in a fierce battle to emerge as number one seed and enjoy the home-field advantage that comes with it. If New England beat the Miami Dolphins, they will clinch that valuable status, but it will be easier said than done. The Raiders travel to the Denver Broncos, knowing they could end up as number one seed or fall to number five, so that is another crucial game.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

The Pats are on a six-game winning streak and have the best record in the league, leading the bookmakers to install them as favourites for the Super Bowl. William Hill has the best price, 15/8, with the Cowboys back on 4/1. New England is huge favourites to win the AFC, odds-on with all bookmakers, with 8/11 about the best price you can find with the likes of Bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes. But the path to the Super Bowl will be made a lot easier for them if they earn top seed spot. Last season they blew number one spot with back-to-back losses in their last two games, against the Jets and Dolphins. The result was a tricky playoff schedule that saw them crash out to eventual Super Bowl champions the Denver Broncos.

They will be desperate to not make the same mistake this season and they know that a win over the Dolphins in their final game will clinch it. The Dolphins laboured badly against the Buffalo Bills in their last game but won it in overtime to secure a playoff berth. They are currently sixth seeds and will face the most difficult schedule, but if they win and the Chiefs lose, they move up to fifth and will avoid the Steelers in the playoffs, securing an easier tie against the Texans. They will be well up for this game, and it should prove to be a thriller. Many expect it to be close, but Dolphins’ quarterback Matt Moore is likely to struggle against the Pats’ outstanding defence, and New England can cover a -7 spread at 8/13 with Sky Bet after easily covering a record spread against the Jets last week.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Raiders are in the postseason for the first time since 2002 and went 12-3 with a 33-25 win over the Colts in week 16, but it came at a huge cost. Derek Carr’s broken fibula is a brutal blow for Oakland fans, who have waited so long for a return to the playoffs and rightly had Super Bowl dreams with Carr leading the charge. Now they have to make do with fourth-year pro Matt McGloin as his replacement and the odds on them winning the Super Bowl went out sharply. They are now as long as 28/1 to win it with Ladbrokes and nobody is giving them much of a chance. But a win at the already eliminated Broncos, whose Super Bowl defence went out with a whimper with a 33-10 defeat in Kansas City, would give McGloin confidence, and it is essential for the Raiders to get the win as the Chiefs are still in with a great chance of pipping them to the AFC West. William Hill has 4/5 on them covering a -3 spread and that looks a good bet as the Broncos are on a three-game losing streak and playing poorly.

Tottenham Looking to End Poor Away Form Against Southampton

Southampton and Tottenham return to Premier League business on Wednesday evening when they clash at St. Mary’s following a welcome 10-day break from action for both clubs.

The match does, however, signal the start of a busy festive period in the top division as Saints prepare for three matches in just six days while Spurs contemplate three fixtures in a slightly more favourable eight days.

Claude Puel’s team will be looking to extend their impressive home form which has seen them lose just once in eight matches on home soil in the league this season to Premier League pacesetters Chelsea.

Tottenham, lying fifth in the table meanwhile, will be seeking to end a poor run of away form which has seen them collect just three points on the road from their last five league matches.

Mauricio Pochettino returns to the south coast for only the second time since his acrimonious departure from Southampton for White Hart Lane in the summer of 2014. And the Argentine will be hoping his team can close the gap on the teams above them in the table with all three points, just as he did on his maiden return to his former employers last December.

Southampton boss Puel will be without top goalscorer Charlie Austin who has gone under the knife for surgery on a shoulder injury which is likely to keep him sidelined for anything up to four months. Austin’s absence could give Jay Rodriguez another opportunity to start after his brace of goals last time out inspired Southampton to a 3-1 win over local rivals Bournemouth.

Spurs, on the other hand, go into the match boasting an almost full strength squad with former Saints defender Toby Alderweireld and Dutch forward Vincent Janssen back to fitness, leaving just Erik Lamela still unavailable as he nurses a long-term hip injury.

Despite their iffy away form, Spurs will go into the match boasting a strong recent record at St. Mary’s. Three wins and a draw from their last four trips to the south coast should give Pochettino confidence that his team can finally turn around their dismal recent away form. Southampton though has to go all the way back to 2005 for their last home victory over Spurs.

Southampton with eight goals in eight home matches this season, and Spurs, who despite their poor recent record have still notched 10 goals on their travels, gives great value to the both teams to score market at Yes 1.80 on Betway.

Elsewhere, with Harry Kane starting to find the net with increasing regularity for the North London outfit recently, the England international is tempting at 9/2 with bet365 to net first on Wednesday evening.

New Zealand Vow to be Aggressive Against Bangladesh Tourists

Hagley Park in Christchurch is set to be bathed in sunshine for the opening one-day international between New Zealand and Bangladesh on Boxing Day. The rebuilt venue is a glorious sight on a summer’s day and the perfect place to celebrate the start of a long Bangladesh tour and the holiday season.

We preview the opening one-day international, the first of three matches between the two countries in Christchurch this summer, below:

The Last Time These Two Met

The Black Caps didn’t have it all their own way in the 2015 World Cup with the men in the pool stages. Bangladesh made 288 batting first in Hamilton but was overrun by Martin Guptil, the tournament’s leading run scorer as New Zealand registered a win by three wickets. New Zealand will field a vastly different side to the team that made the World Cup final, meaning the Bangladesh are a real chance to get an upset or two in this series.

The Teams

New Zealand (probable)

1 Martin Guptill, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Neil Broom, 5 Colin Munro, 6 Luke Ronchi (wk), 7 Colin de Grandhomme, 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Lockie Ferguson, 11 Trent Boult

Matt Henry and James Neesham may not find a place if New Zealand decides to go with an attack similar to the one they employed against Australia in Melbourne. Neil Broom is likely to take Henry Nicholls’ place at No. 4, and Luke Ronchi will certainly be replacing BJ Watling behind the stumps.

Bangladesh (probable)

1 Tamim Iqbal, 2 Imrul Kayes, 3 Sabbir Rahman, 4 Mushfiqur Rahim (wk), 5 Shakib Al Hasan, 6 Mahmudullah, 7 Mosaddek Hossain, 8 Tanbir Hayder/Mehedi Hasan, 9 Mashrafe Mortaza (capt), 10 Mustafizur Rahman, 11 Taskin Ahmed

Mustafizur proved his match fitness during Bangladesh’s warm-up game in Whangerei, so if the team management is confident that he can manage himself on the field, it will be a straight swap for the injured Shafiul Islam from Bangladesh’s last ODI in October. Nasir Hossain isn’t in the ODI squad too, so a call between the uncapped Mehedi Hasan and Tanbir Hayder will have to be made.

The Key Players

New Zealand

Martin Guptill is one of the world’s most destructive one-day players and he enters this series – having been pretty consistent at home over the last few years – in destructive form. Guptil lead the run-scoring charts for NZ in their recent Chappell-Hadlee series loss to Australia and will be tasked with setting the tone for NZ in terms of aggression against a clever bowler in the man below.

Bangladesh

After sitting out much of the season, Mustafizur returns to the line-up desperately hoping he can stay fit and build on his efforts in the IPL and for Sussex in the English County Season. The 21-year old proved his fitness in the warm up loss in Whangarei, taking two wickets (although one was a strangle down the leg side) and showing he’ll be a worry for the New Zealand batsman in the Boxing Day opener. Mustafizur was also recently named ICC’s Emerging Player of the Year.

The Match Odds*

New Zealand – $1.22

Bangladesh – $4.25

*All odds from Unibet.

The Prediction

New Zealand has struggled with Bangladesh in recent years. A 4-0 series loss in 2010 was comical and further losses in 2013 seem to suggest they could cause an upset on this tour. However, the trend is not enough to call Bangladesh a bogey team for New Zealand and we can’t see a shock in the series opener. We expect Bangladesh to take some time to ease themselves into this series. New Zealand to win by 40 runs or 5 wickets.

The Best Bets

Guptill to score over 37 is paying a generous $1.87. We can’t see him missing out here.

Shakib is paying the same to score just 24. That looks good money too. $4.15 if he makes it all the way to 50.

And what about a cheeky look at Lockie Ferguson to be the top bowler at $5. His pace could scare a few of the tourist batsman and he could get some cheapies.

 

 

Liverpool vs. Stoke: Can PMA Upset Liverpool?

With an extra day to sleep off the Christmas turkey, Liverpool’s finest will be looking to move a few steps closer to Chelsea in the Premier League race when they welcome Stoke on December 27.

With a hard-fought win over Everton in their last outing, Jurgen Klopp’s men will be hoping for more of the same against Stoke and the stats suggest that could be the case. If we look back through time, Liverpool has dominated Stoke at home. Although away trips haven’t been quite as bountiful, Liverpool has managed to win 48 of their last 65 ties against The Potters.

That sort of home form, combined with Liverpool’s recent run in the Premier League has naturally led Sun Bets’ odds makers to price the Merseyside as the heavy favourites ahead of the match. Currently priced at 2/7, the odds would suggest this will be one of the most one-sided festive matches this season.

It’s About More than Numbers for Hughes

However, do the numbers really tell the whole story? Well, according to manager Mark Hughes, last January’s League Cup exploits could be just the confidence boost his players need. Although Stoke ultimately lost on penalties in the semi-final, they did “win” the match 1-0 during normal time. Had it not been for aggregate goals from the previous leg, Hughes’ men might have made it to the final.

Unfortunately, fate would have it that they fell just short, but Hughes believes that his players can replicate that performance on the 27th. Speaking to the local press, Hughes claimed it was “belief” that helped clinch that match and that his team will be heading to Anfield without any pressure.

“We went there with a real determination and a key element to our performance was belief. We will go there with a positive mindset, not apprehension, and give it a go. There’s no pressure on us and we never go there with the intention of protecting what we’ve got,” Hughes told the Stoke Sentinel.

If PMA (positive mental attitude) can overcome the skill gap, then a tenner on Stoke at 9/1 with bet365 would make a nice late Christmas present. But, with news that referee Michael Oliver will be taking charge of the game, that positive mindset could be in danger of fading fast by the time the two teams kickoff.

When PMA Isn’t Enough

Oliver became something of a pantomime villain at Stoke after a dodgy penalty decision allowed Everton to score from the spot and earn a narrow victory. Although that incident took place on the other side of Liverpool, it’s something many travelling Stoke fans will remember and that could easily create the sort of negative vibes manager Hughes wants to avoid.

Of course, the players will have slightly more pressing issues on their minds when the game starts, but there’s always a chance Oliver’s presence could leave a lingering doubt in their minds. If that’s the case and Hughes’ only saving grace is a positive mindset, then Stoke could really be in trouble on the 27th.

Taking the outright odds out of the equation as they’re simply too short to offer much value, the bets of the day looks to be Liverpool win by one of the following score lines:

2-0 = 6/1 at Ladbrokes

3-0 = 7/1 at Ladbrokes

3-1 = 9/1 at Ladbrokes

Liverpool has already scored 41 this season and conceded just 20 which suggests they’ve got plenty of firepower in the tank. Although Stoke has only conceded 24, their strike rate is just 19 Premier League goals. Taking this into account, it looks unlikely the Potters will get a sniff of the net at Anfield. Yes, Liverpool might not have it all their own way, but once the floodgates open this one could turn into a riot.

For the most value, 2-0 looks to be a wise investment, but if you’re looking for something a little juicier and believe we might get a Christmas cracker, 3-1 at the price is a great shout.

Key Boxing Day Match for Arsenal

This Boxing Day we see West Brom travel to the Emirates to take on an Arsenal side reeling for 2 consecutive league defeats. Having taken the lead in both games, Wenger will be furious that he has allowed a 9 point gap to open between his team and Chelsea. West Brom comes into this game on the back of decent form, and having lost to both Chelsea and Man United in recent games, they will be looking to Arsenal to take a scalp against one of the top teams in the league.

Getting back on track

The game against City was a real chance to keep up with the leaders while doing damage to an immediate rival, but it wasn’t to be; as against Everton in their previous game, Arsenal fell to another disappointing defeat. Their second half capitulation at the Etihad has led to some serious soul-searching, with Mesut Ozil coming under focus for a lacklustre display, and Wenger deflecting that criticism onto others in his team. Arsenal fans are looking for results rather than excuses, and a home game against West Brom seems to be the opportunity to regroup.

Looking at the head to head records we can see Arsenal have a strong pedigree of beating Albion: 14 victories, 3 draws and 3 losses for Wenger’s team, and West Brom haven’t beaten them away since 2010.

Arsenal can add Alex Oxlade Chamberlain and Shkodan Mustafi to a growing list of first team players out with injuries. In-form Alexis Sanchez and Theo Walcott will be available, and the focus will be on Ozil, Granit Xhaka and Francis Coquelin to make big improvements on their performances in Manchester.

Tony Pulis looking for one up against an old rival

The bitter feud between these two managers has cooled in recent years, but no doubt will Pulis be hoping to take some valuable points away against a man of whom he once said “I’ve got nothing against foreign managers, they are very nice people. Apart from Arsene Wenger.”

West Brom have been in solid form this far, sitting pretty in 8th place, they have had a tough run of games leading up to Christmas, and while there is no shame in their losses to Chelsea and United, Pulis will be looking to improve on those performances to take at least a point in North London.

West Brom has a mostly fit squad, with only Jonny Evans and James Morrison of their regular starters in doubt.

Where is the value?

It’s likely that we will see another rearguard display from Pulis’ boys. While West Brom has been fairly free-scoring against teams they are more confident of a result against, we have seen a much more cautious, organised approach against the bigger club. It’s likely that they will allow Arsenal the majority of possession while hoping to do some damage in the air from set pieces.

Arsenal to win is at 1/3 with Bet365, so it might be worth enhancing these odds, and seeing as West Brom failed to score against either Chelsea or United it could be worth taking Arsenal to Win BTTS/No at 6/5. I think this game will really depend on how Arsenal turn out on the day; if they can fire themselves up to get a result they desperately need, then they should be able to take all the points with minimal fuss. But should the flaky, unreliable Arsenal we have seen all too much of in recent times turn up, then there could be value in backing West Brom on a double chance at 2/1 with William Hill, but this is definitely an outside chance.