Author: Online Betting Pro

I am a punter that loves to follow the horse both in Australia and the United Kingdom. I enjoy writing about sports betting and also casino, poker and bingo. In my spare time I like to keep fit by playing football and going for long bike rides. I also like to travel the world and see amazing place s and meet wonderful people along the way.

West Brom vs. Watford – Mid Season, Mid Table Battle

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This Saturday Watford travels to the Hawthorns to take on rival high-flyers West Brom. Both teams are sitting pretty in the top half of the Premier League table, Watford with 18 points and West Brom with 17. Each will be looking to take vital points against a team they will likely be vying against in May, possibly for a place in Europe.

A look at each team’s recent record shows remarkably similar form in the season so far, with both having a fairly even spread of wins, draws and losses. Ahead of a tight game at 15:00 on Saturday, we are taking an in-depth look at the two squads to try and unpick the football betting value.

A Solid Start

West Brom has made an impressive start to the season. Tony Pulis is well regarded a safe pair of hands, having helped steer the course for Stoke and Crystal Palace in becoming established Premier League clubs. His cautious, consistent approach to management has worked well for the Baggies, who are clearly flourishing under his leadership.

West Brom’s form is solid; they perform strongly against mid and lower table teams and have scored in all but three games this season. With four 1:1 draws so far, they have an ability to scrap for points when it counts. A 2:1 home win against Champions Leicester is a high point for the team.

With few injuries, Albion will be able to field a strong squad on Saturday. Saido Berahino hasn’t played a key part in the season this far, so his absence won’t be too keenly felt. Pulis will hope to draw on goals from Salomon Rondon and Nacer Chadli.

Watford has been a surprise package since rejoining the Prem last season. A promising 2015-16 season ended with a mid table finish, an FA cup semi final and the somewhat bemusing sacking of Quique Flores. Gino Pozzo, their Italian owner, appointed his compatriot Walter Mazzarri as manager in the summer. Untested in the jungle of the Premier League, Mazzarri is a manager with some pedigree in his home nation looking to prove himself on this new stage.

Watford is quickly proving themselves to be an exciting team capable of playing open, high scoring football on their day. A surprise 3:1 home victory against Man United, and, like West Brom, a 2:1 win against Leicester has shown that Watford is a team capable and willing to try to outplay more established clubs. This approach has come back to bite them; a 6:1 thrashing by the increasingly terrifying Liverpool has taught a lesson to any club thinking they can play open, progressive football at Anfield.

A match day squad could quite likely be missing two regular defensive starters in Younes Kaboul and Jose Holebas. Aside from them, Mazzarri will be able to pick from his regular starters. Captain Troy Deeney should start, a player who is a challenge for any defence to cope with.

Finding the value in a close game

It would be wise to expect a fairly even game, with both teams probing each other to find weakness in the first half. The fixtures from last season saw only one goal, resulting in a 0:1 away win for Watford, so we shouldn’t expect a high scoring game. While picking a winner between the two is tough, West Brom could edge it due to the home advantage. Paddy Power is offering 6/5 on West Brom win, and 23/10 on a draw.

However, with West Brom having recording four 1:1 draws so far this season, and both teams with an exactly 61.54% BTTS rate, a score draw seems like it could come through. Bet 365 have 1:1 at 11/2 and BTTS and draw at 7/2.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Can Klopps Red Army March On

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Liverpool hasn’t been league champions since 1990. That is far too long for a club of this standing. They have sat back and watched a multitude of teams lift the trophy since then. Teams like Arsenal, Leeds United, Blackburn Rovers, Chelsea, Manchester City and of course their fierce rivals Manchester United. This season could just see the end of that barren run because Jürgen Klopp is building something special this season.

They reached yet another semi-final this week by beating Leeds United 2-0 in the EFL Cup. Jürgen Klopp would love to win the EFL Cup, but it’s the league title that they all covet. It’s going to be very difficult for any team to win the league this term. The competition is very hot. Pep Guardiola and Manchester City are going to be there or thereabouts come May. It is also becoming apparent that Chelsea will come very close too.

Healing the Scars

Steven Gerrard may soon be back at Anfield in a coaching role. His recent retirement marks the end for perhaps the greatest player ever to wear a Liverpool shirt. Gerrard was also at the centre for what was one of the most memorable slips in football history. His slip that let in Chelsea to score, which gifted the title to Manchester City in 2014 will be remembered for years.

It is on a par with John Terrys’ famous penalty shootout slip in the 2008 Champions League final that would have won the cup for Chelsea. The scars from the Chelsea game still haunt the Liverpool fans. If Klopp could end that hurt, then he would surely go down in Anfield folklore. The next leg of their title challenge sees them travel to Bournemouth.

A Tough Place to Visit

The Vitality Stadium is becoming a tough place to visit for any team. Both Everton and Tottenham have gone there this season and failed to score. Eddie Howe has built an impressive team on the south coast. Once again they have made a solid start to the season and have 15pts so far. The bookies have Bournemouth at 4/1 to beat Liverpool with Coral and William Hill quoting those odds.

You can also get 16/5 on the draw with William Hill too, while the best odds for Liverpool are 8/11 with Boyle Sports. It is difficult to oppose Liverpool when they travel to any club in the bottom half of the table. The Premier League is the toughest league in Europe by none. There are no easy fixtures and Sunderland frustrated the Reds for long periods last week before conceding late goals. Liverpool only managed a 0-0 draw against Southampton recently at St Marys, and so the value seems to be either in backing Bournemouth or the draw.

Manchester City vs Chelsea: The Title Decider?

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It’s certainly too early to call this weekends’ showdown between Manchester City and Chelsea a “title decider”. Despite this, we will still be able to gain some important indicators from this match as to who the likely champions will be. We have a lot more data to go on when it comes to predicting the champions than we had back in August. For example, Manchester United will clearly not be champions this season, and we don’t need to wait until it is mathematically certain to see why.

When Statistics Reveal the Answers

Quite often, statistics get to the very heart of the matter and reveal the truth. The league champions usually finish with a total of around 85pts. The points’ totals of City, Chelsea and Liverpool so far clearly indicate that this figure will be reached this season. United have 20pts from 13 games. Clearly, given their current level of performance, they will not amass 65pts from their remaining 25 matches. So what do the statistics reveal for the Manchester City vs Chelsea encounter?

Chelsea made a solid start to the season in August. They won all three of their league games. Looking back on these three games and how they played out revealed that all wasn’t well with the Chelsea system. All three of Chelsea’s opponents were relatively weak and this papered over the cracks. This led to a poor September where Chelsea only took one point from a possible nine. A home defeat to Liverpool and a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal highlighted the shortcomings in the Chelsea team.

The Trend is up

Analysing form in football betting usually means looking at trends. Chelsea had a total of 10pts from six matches after September. Since then they have taken maximum points from seven matches. This includes wins over Manchester United, Everton and Tottenham. Antonio Conte has turned things around very rapidly. They are becoming very difficult to score against and should they win at the Etihad this weekend, they will become serious title challengers and favourites.

The current trend is favouring Chelsea, and Manchester City’s recent form has been patchy. If we take away the great start to the season by City and the mediocre one by Chelsea then the difference in their recent form clearly gives the Blues a significant edge. Manchester City can be backed at 11/10 with Bet365.

Their recent home draws to Southampton, Everton and Middlesbrough seem to indicate that 11/10 is too short. Far too short when you consider that the visitors are possible champions elect. Stan James offers 13/5 on the draw with Betfred quoting 5/2 for a Chelsea win. Both teams may be happy with a point and so the value bet seems to indicate the draw at 13/5.

Scott the Overwhelming PGA Favourite Despite Being “Just Average”

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Tournament number two in Australia’s prestigious Triple Crown is upon us this week and hosted on the Gold Coast again for the fourth straight year.

Let’s take a look at the course, the contenders and the odds for the Australian PGA Championship starting Thursday:

The Course

RACV Royal Pines Resort on the Gold Coast is home to tight fairways, undulating greens and immaculately manicured swales. 27 holes mean the course can be played in three different ways, with all of them having its own distinctive challenges. It will play longish at 6,690 metres, with six par 4s that measure more than 400 metres, four par 5s that are over 500 metres long, and a 201-metre par 3. And will be covered in bunkers (which won’t be new to those that played on the Melbourne sandbelt).

The Defending Champion

Nathan Holman defied the odds to win last year. In doing so, he secured a European Tour card but really struggled to find his footing in the competitive tour. His recent form doesn’t bode that well for a successful defence. In fact, he withdrew from the recent Nedbank Golf Challenge with a bad back. Holman’s at $51 to go back to back.

The Contenders*

Adam Scott $4.50 – The World number 7 is the obvious drawcard for the second premier event of the Australian season, and the clear favourite with the bookies to take out the lion’s share of the $1.5 million purse. Scott’s in okay form; he described himself as “just average” recently. A T14th at the Australian Open was followed up with some decent golf with Marc Leishman in the World Cup of Gold teams format tournament.

Ian Poulter $34 – The Englishman is probably better known for his Twitter exploits than his golf game these days, but could still surprise in a relatively lean field. Once the European’s team clutch man on the greens during Ryder Cups, Poulter has been without a win since 2012.

Marc Leishman $15 – The other half of Australia’s World Cup team, Leishman hits the ball long and could really light up the Royal Ones lay out if at his best. However, he’s probably not near it at the moment and probably has one eye on a break. The PGA will be his last tournament before a long break.

Cameron Smith $15 – The young Australian lost the Australian Open in a playoff to Jordan Spieth. He rocketed into contention with a final round 66. At the same time illustrating the type of form that’s seen him compete regularly in the States in 2016. He’ll contend again here this week and looks at nice odds.

Harold Varner III $34 – Varner’s a little powerhouse. Relatively small but hits it a mile. The Ohio-born 26-year-old hasn’t enjoyed the best of starts in 2016/17 but enjoyed three top tens last season on the PGA Tour. One thing is a certainty, though; he’ll thrive with the boisterous Aussie crowds.

Danny Lee $23 – New Zealand’s number one golfer is making his Australian PGA Championship debut this week. The PGA Tour winner and current world number 58 is backing up after combining with Ryan Fox to finish T11 in the IPSA Hands World Cup of Golf last week. He looks a good prospect because of a previous win in Australia in the 2009 Johnnie Walker Classic, achieved as an amateur.

Ryan Fox $23 – The Kiwi’s built more like a rugby player than a golfer – it’s likely due to his genes (his dad Grant played for the All Blacks for a long time). But, he’s still got an incredible touch around the greens and could really challenge here after a good few weeks in Australia. He’ll be better for his experience in the final groups challenging for the Stonehaven and by being surrounded by the quality golfers at the World Cup.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

Although I labelled the group above, “contenders” I don’t actually think many of them will challenge for the title. Some of them are just famous names in the field, who are likely to struggle. I like Lee and Smith.

Tiger Returns to Competitive Golf With Question Marks Over Mind

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Tiger Woods’s withdraw from the Safeway Open and the Turkish Open were curious decisions, if not unsurprising. Unsurprising, because we’ve got used to Tiger missing golf tournaments over the last four years, but curious because Tiger pulled out because of doubts over the mental aspect of his game.

He admitted he was healthy. He admitted his game (read mind) wasn’t.

He was worried he couldn’t be competitive over four rounds of golf. Most assumed the mental doubts were chipping related after former coach Hank Haney commented that he had witnesses reporting he was flubbing most chips in practice.

Whatever the cause, Woods’s admission was new territory. Woods never gave an inch. He exerted his dominance over every other player and instilled fear in anyone unlucky enough to get him in a Sunday battle down the stretch.

But now, with his own belief waning, and players no longer fearful, Tiger’s prospect is entirely different. Tiger’s teeing it up in his own tournament, the Hero World Challenge. The media aren’t waiting for him to do something superlative. They’re waiting for mistakes. Every putt, every chip will be analysed like never before. Any mistake will be jumped on, and with it will come an article writing off his chances of catching Jack Nicklaus’s major record.

Tiger last played in the tournament here in 2014 opening with a 77, and ultimately settling for a tie in last place at even par. Tiger did close with a nice 69, but his appearance will be remembered for all of the fluffed chips that are still popular on YouTube.

How he goes this year will be riveting. Sportsbet has him at $34 to win, the longest odds in the field.

Here’s my take on the tournament and the contenders.

The Course

Albany’s 18-hole links style championship golf course was designed by Ernie Els. It boasts exquisite links and desert features with windswept dunes and a handful of tactically positioned water features. The par-72 course plays 7,400-yards and has a course record of 63, shot by Bubba Watson. A score of around 25-under is probably needed again to win it.

The Defending Champion

Bubba Watson held off Patrick Reed to win by three strokes last year. His 263 total was one worse than Jordan Spieth’s tournament record achieved the year before. Bubba hasn’t played for some time, so might be short of a gallop, but he’s plenty long enough to tame Albany again.

The Contenders*

This is awfully tricky given the quality of the invitation-only 18-man field, but here goes:

Dustin Johnson $6 – The player who was unbeatable at the end of last year is the favourite in the Bahamas. Three wins last year, including the US Open, prove Johnson was at his enigmatic best. His drive-wedge-missed putt formula has turnaround recently as the putts started to drop. He’s a massive threat for the field.

Jordan Spieth $7 – Coming off a win in Australia and playing at a course he’s won at before, Spieth is rightfully liked by the bookies. His win in Australia was professional rather than dominant – he sprayed his driver everywhere but was still good enough to win. You can never discount someone that putts as well as he does from 20 feet.

Hideki Matsuyama $9 – Three wins in his last four events(not including the World Cup) Matsuyama is the hottest player on the planet. So good with an iron in his hand, if he can make putts he will push the tournament record on the Albany course. Still played pretty nicely last week in tying for 6th with partner Ryo Ishikawa.

*Odds from Sportsbet.

The Winner

I’m picking Spieth to win, but if you’re looking for other betting options, get on Reed and Fowler to finish within the top 4. The two have been consistent in the event and will be there or thereabouts this week too.

Quakes, Snow Shake-up Field for 2016 Japan Cup

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To say the lead-up to the 2016 Japan Cup has been dramatic would be an understatement. The Fukushima prefecture, which faced the brunt of the 2011 tsunami that killed nearly 16,000 people, was again struck by a series of earthquakes – thankfully, without injury or damage. Then on Thursday, a freak snowstorm ahead of forecast weekend rain had punters scurrying for their formguides ahead of Sunday’s 36th running of the Japan Cup at Tokyo Racecourse. It was the first measurable November snowfall in Tokyo in 54 years.

This is without a doubt one of the most prestigious races on the face of the planet. The Japan Racing Association established the Japan Cup (2400 metres) as an international invitational race in order for local racehorses to have the opportunity to compete against horses of an international calibre. That philosophy has been franked time and time again with winners from the host nation, North America, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, France, Germany and Italy.

However, it’s been a decade since the internationals have emerged successful (Alkaased in 2005), a period during which Gentildonna became the only multiple winner of the race (2012-13). The prize money isn’t too shabby either, with a staggering purse of ¥624 million (about USD $5.5 million) on offer. The race starts in front of the main grandstand at Fuchu which, on a clear day, also affords a stunning view of Mount Fuji. The sweeping course includes an uphill climb in the long stretch run, which has helped produce some thrilling finishes over the past 35 years.
Wet conditions favour internationals

The prospect of heavy rain appears a dream come true for the connections of German invitee Iquitos, one of three foreign entrants in the 17-horse field. Two of Iquitos’ best performances have come on wet tracks. The four-year-old Adlerflug colt won the Grosser Preis von Baden (GI) on soft going on September 4, defeating one of Sunday’s rivals, Nightflower, by 2.75 lengths. Two races earlier he finished second behind 2014 Melbourne Cup (G1) winner Protectionist in the Grosser Hansa Preis (G2) at Hamburg on heavy turf. He’s still a tasty 33-1 with Paddy Power.

Nightflower, a four-year-old filly by Dylan Thomas, faces the prospect of rain and barrier 15. Trainer Peter Schiergen said his filly would prefer firm ground and a starting position better than last year’s No. 18, which produced an 11th-place finish. Also back for another shot at the region’s richest race is the French-trained four-year-old Dubawi colt Erupt. He finished sixth in last year’s Japan Cup and comes to this race fresh after a victory in the Pattison Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine on October 16 for trainer Francis-Henri Graffard. However, all of Erupt’s best performances have also been on good to firm turf. In his only outing on soft going, he finished last of nine in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud (G1) in July.

Strong local contingent

Those visitors all have to contend with a typically impressive line-up of local contenders featuring Dubai Turf winner Real Steel, Tenno Sho (Spring) winner Kitasan Black, 2015 Arima Kinen victor Gold Actor and three-year-old Dee Majesty, winner of this year’s Satsuki Sho or (Japanese 2000 Guineas). Real Steel has not won in two starts since Dubai but finished second behind Maurice in his most recent start. Maurice, who would have been well regarded in this race, instead is being prepared for Hong Kong. Real Steel, a four-year-old colt by Deep Impact, is reunited with jockey Ryan Moore, who piloted him in the Dubai win. Alarmingly for the locals, most of them have never raced on worse-than-good surfaces and of the bulk which has, they’ve failed. However, it’s not unreasonable to think that sheer talent will ensure at least one of the Japanese horses will cut through the slop to victory. The best placed looks Kitasan Black (4/1 with Paddy Power). He has finished in the money in his past seven, four of them top level, four of them wins and two at the top level. He’s also proven at distances from 1800 to 3000 metres.