Leicester City v Middlesbrough: A Day For Defences

While Leicester City continued to buck the odds by topping Group G of the UEFA Champions League after a relatively comfortable 2-1 victory over Club Brugge on Tuesday, it’s fair to say that the Foxes have had to face something of a reality check in the Premier League this season.

Claudio Ranieri’s men have struggled to replicate their phenomenal title-winning form from the 2015/2016 campaign and currently sit just two points above the relegation zone in 14th place. A 2-1 defeat to Watford last time out did little to improve morale as Leicester became only the third reigning champions after Leeds United in 1992 and Blackburn Rovers in 1995 to start a season without a win in their first six away games.

Fortunately, the Foxes will be able to fall back on home comforts on Saturday as they face a Middlesbrough side who are one point and one place behind them in the Premier League table, but their erratic domestic form means a straightforward afternoon is far from guaranteed. In truth, there is little to separate the two sides in terms of results, with Boro edging it with five points from their last four games to Leicester’s four.

Foxes Failing To Fire

The worry for Leicester will be that while the two teams’ recent returns are comparable, the way in which those points have been accrued most certainly isn’t. Aitor Karanka’s men have shown incredible defensive resilience to secure hard-earned points at Arsenal and Manchester City while also derailing an in-form AFC Bournemouth at the Riverside, whereas Leicester lost their last Premier League home clash to West Brom.

Despite this fact, the bookmakers still have the reigning champions as favourites for the win against newly-promoted Middlesbrough, with Betfred and Betway both offering a best price of 10/11 on a home victory. The visitors, meanwhile, are out at 15/4 with Bet Victor and the draw is also available at 13/5 with Bet365; with both of these outcomes undoubtedly offering better value than the odds-on price on a Leicester win.

The main problem for the home side here is that while Boro has been busy making a name for themselves thanks to their dogged defending in recent weeks, Leicester is badly struggling for goals. Having been one of the driving forces behind their title push last season with 24 goals, Jamie Vardy has found the net twice so far and has now fallen behind slight injury doubt Islam Slimani in Coral’s first goalscorer market at 5/1.

Chances At A Premium

The Algerian, meanwhile, is rated at 9/2 with the same bookie and arguably represents more of a threat if he is passed fit; as does Leicester’s top scorer in all competitions this season, Riyad Mahrez, who comes in at 6/1 with Bet365 and also has penalty duties in his locker. Picking a marksman for the visitors is similarly problematic, with Middlesbrough being the league’s joint-lowest scorers alongside Hull City with 10 goals.

All this adds up to a game where defences are likely to be on top, and you can get a tasty-looking 7/2 on Boro keeping their fourth clean sheet of the season with Sky Bet. Similarly, Betfred is offering 12/5 on the match featuring fewer than 1.5 goals and – despite being odds-on at 4/5 – under 2.5 goals looks about as close to a certainty as you’re ever likely to find in the Premier League with the same online bookmaker.

Those wishing to take this defensive mindset a step further can find a generous 9/1 on the game finishing 0-0 with Sky Bet, while if you do fancy Leicester to snap their recent losing streak in the Premier League, your best bet is certainly to back the Foxes to win to nil with Bet Victor at vastly improved odds of 21/10.

Burnley vs Manchester City: Tough Turf for City

Turf Moor has long been considered to be a graveyard for the top teams that play there. This tight little stadium with a small capacity almost looks out of place in the Premier League. Burnley have been defying the critics for some time. The fact of the matter is this. Everton and Liverpool have both lost at Turf Moor this season while Arsenal were lucky to scrape a 1-0 win.

Despite their recent away win at Crystal Palace, City still look like a team that is capable of conceding goals. They are still many peoples’ bet for the title. It is difficult to ponder the variables when it comes to predicting whether Guardiola will lift the title in his first season. City has the potential and they certainly have the manager with the right philosophy. The question is will that philosophy work in the Premier League? Then we might ask if it will work in time for City to be Champions this season?

Bookies Buy into the Guardiola Effect

The betting firms have certainly bought into the famous “Guardiola effect”. Manchester City are favourites again for the title but should they be? Chelsea have been champions more recently than City and they don’t have to worry about European football this season. Guardiola freely admits that he is still “learning” the nuances of the Premier League.

This means that the bookies will certainly have them too short when they face Burnley in the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday. William Hill has City at 2/7 to win. You can get odds of 5/1 with Stan James for the draw and 10/1 with BoyleSports for a Burnley win. The recent wins over Barcelona and the 4-0 win away to West Brom still haven’t convinced a lot of people that City have what it takes.

Buoyed by the Return of Toure

City have never really recovered since the loss of club captain Vincent Kompany. A succession of injuries is now looking to threaten his entire career. He went off injured again last weekend in the 2-1 win away to Crystal Palace. The plus side is the return of Yaya Toure. Guardiola claims he is back to full fitness and that is going to be a big boost for City. This is providing that Toure delivers and doesn’t drift in and out of games like he has done in recent seasons.

It is clear that City must start as favourites against Burnley but 2/7 favourites? Burnley have recorded consistent results this season. Their recent goalless draw at Old Trafford and the home win against Everton has left them with a respectable 14pts so far. The value bet seems to be the 5/1 for the draw. City are frail at the back and Turf Moor is a tough ground to visit….just ask Liverpool and Everton fans.

Rebuilding Starts as Australia Look to Avoid Whitewash

There’s plenty of intrigue in game three of the Australian / South African cricket series. There’s pink balls, selection overhauls, argy-bargy in airports and ball tampering. Whatever happens, game three in Adelaide is sure to include some drama and some great betting opportunities.

Check out our thoughts on the day-night test:

The Last Time These Two Met

The second test in Hobart was an unmitigated disaster for the Australians. Collapses in both innings and the lowest number of balls faced in a home test match since 1928, meant a heavy defeat by an innings and 80 runs. Australia made just 85 in the first dig and 161 in the second (from a position of 2/129); struggling in the face of quality seam bowling by Abbott, Rabada and Philander.

The loss has been the catalyst for a significant overhaul in election policies and personnel. Gone is former chief selector Rod Marsh, replaced by Trevor Hohns, and sweeping changes have been made to the squad (more below). The unsettling changes could mean Australia are facing the very real threat of a series whitewash, which could mean they’re favourites as they look to blood fresh players that are unscathed from the previous two results.

The Teams

Australia (likely):

1 David Warner, 2 Matt Renshaw, 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Peter Handscomb, 6 Nic Maddinson, 7 Matthew Wade, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Josh Hazlewood, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jackson Bird.

Australia has made a host of changes to the team that lost in Hobart. Out goes Joe Burns, Adam Voges, Peter Nevill, Joe Mennie and Callum Ferguson. In for their debuts are Renshaw, Handscomb and Maddinson. The selections are a significant shift in the Australian selectors thinking. Replacing older players with players of the future hasn’t always been their way (think Hussey, North, Voges and Rogers for players who made their debuts at late stages in their careers).

South Africa (likely):

1 Stephen Cook, 2 Dean Elgar, 3 Hashim Amla, 4 JP Duminy, 5 Faf du Plessis (capt), 6 Temba Bavuma, 7 Quinton de Kock (wk), 8 Vernon Philander, 9 KA Maharaj 10 Kyle Abbott, 11 Kagiso Rabada.

No changes expected for the South Africans after Far du Plessis was fined for ball tampering but not suspended.

The Key Players

Australia

David Warner – The left-hander has been the biggest disappointment in the series thus far. As always, he’s looking a million dollars every time he bats, but, he just can’t seem to go on with it and get the huge 170 that Australia is desperately seeking. As an important member of the senior leadership team, he needs to convert starts (aside from the 1 he scored in the first innings of game two, he’s had a start each time) into long innings and platforms for his middle order.

South Africa

Quinton de Kock – In the mould of Adam Gilchrist, de Kock has had a huge influence on this series. Scores of 64, 84, 104 not only display some beautiful symmetry and code but also evidence a batsman in exceptional form. If he can continue his free-scoring fun, even against the pink ball, South Africa will be well on the way to achieving the 3-0.

The Match Odds

Australia – $2.60 at Ladbrokes.

South Africa – $2.10 at Bet365.

Draw – $6.40 at Betfair.

The Prediction

The great leveller in game three is the pink ball. Notoriously difficult to see, prone to swinging and just a little unusual (just ask Matthew Wade, the colour blind keeper has admitted to having some issues seeing the ball); the pink ball and lights could even up the contest. It appears bookies are thinking the same way with less separating the teams than the first two tests would indicate.

We actually like Australia to win this one. They have more experience against the pink ball, and we’ve seen too many unlikely wins on the back of coach and player changes to tempt a nice turnaround script.

The Best Bets

There’s been plenty of money on Usman Khawaja ($4.70) and Matt Renshaw ($6) to be Australia’s top batsman. However, depending on when the top order face-off against the new ball, the top three might not be the safe option. What about Nic Maddinson at $7.60 instead.

On the bowling side of things, why not consider Vernon Philander to take wickets and thus be named man of the match ($13). If any bowler in world cricket can exploit a wobbling ball and favourable atmospheric conditions, it’s Philander.

Arsenal v PSG: Can The Gunners Top Group A?

Having already secured their progress to the knock-out stages of the UEFA Champions League for the 14th consecutive season, Wednesday’s clash between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain represents something of a straight shoot-out for top spot in Group A and – potentially – a more favourable draw in the Round of 16.

The Gunners punched their ticket to next phase of the competition with a thrilling 3-2 comeback against Bulgarian champions Ludogorets Razgrad, with Mesut Ozil’s sublime winner ensuring the North London side maintained their unbeaten start to the group despite being 2-0 down within the opening 15 minutes.

The jubilant scenes among the away supporters were, however, tempered by news of Thomas Meunier’s 90th-minute strike handing PSG all three points away to Basel, with this late victory ensuring that the two teams go into this week’s fixture deadlocked on 10 points apiece, with Arsenal ahead on goal difference.

The French Connection

The last time the two teams met in Group A, Arsenal managed to salvage a point through Alexis Sanchez’s second-half goal, but the visitors were behind within a minute when Edinson Cavani’s glancing header sent the Paris faithful into raptures. The Gunners were run ragged in the opening exchanges and were indebted to the Uruguayan’s wayward finishing as they held on before striking late in the final quarter of the game.

With Arsene Wenger’s men benefiting from home advantage this time out, the bookies are predicting a far smoother ride at the Emirates, with Arsenal priced as 13/10 favourites with Betfair ahead of PSG at 12/5 with Sky Bet. The draw, meanwhile, is available at a best price of 9/4 from Unibet, indicating that despite their slightly more favourable odds, Wednesday night’s game should largely be an evenly-matched affair.

One statistic that does stand out, however, is the fact that Arsenal has conceded in each of their last three games in all competitions, with this making 138.com’s price of 10/13 on both teams finding the back of the net seem an easy way to make money. Should these odds not appeal, you can double both teams scoring with the result, with Betfair offering 7/5 on Arsenal emerging victorious and 9/2 on PSG doing the same.

Attack! Attack! Attack!

With both sides able to field a glittering array of attacking talent, it seems fairly safe to assume that the game is unlikely to finish goalless – and the current trends in this year’s competition indicate that there may be some value to be had when betting on the time that the first goal will be scored at the Emirates.

In the two games in which they’ve conceded in Group A, Arsenal has gone behind in both the 1st and 12th minutes, while in their remaining two games they’ve opened the scoring in the 7th and 12th minute against Basel and Ludogorets respectively. It is therefore somewhat surprising to see William Hill decide that a goal in the opening 1-15 minutes is an odds-against proposition at 21/10, with this offering some potential value.

Arsenal’s current run of three games without a clean sheet also makes it strange to see 1-0 to the home side being touted as the most likely scoreline by Coral and Boyle Sports at 15/2. Given what we already know about the Gunners’ defensive frailty in the competition this year, a 2-1 victory therefore, looks more appealing at 33/4 with 138.com, and you can also get 39/4 on the visitors winning by the same scoreline.

 

 

Goals Look Certain at Parkhead

CELTIC face one of the toughest challenges in world football on Wednesday night when they host the mighty Barcelona at Parkhead in Champions League Group C.

The Scottish champions will need every one of the 61,000 passionate sell-out crowd to play their part in this one and become “The Bhoys” 12th man; it has worked before with them beating the five-times European champions in 2012, but this time around it’s very difficult to make any case for a shock win.

The two sides met at the Camp Nou in September and Celtic was very lucky to come away with just a 7-0 hammering. There is simply too much of a gulf between these two sides, something which is highlighted by the bookies’ odds for the game.

Barca are just 1.30 to bounce back to winning ways after their 3-1 defeat in their last Champions League match at Man City, and it’s impossible to look past them, but I personally couldn’t back them at those very short prices.

The Catalan giants were held to a goalless draw against Malaga on Sunday to let odds-on backers down, and with key players returning in Glasgow they should win this, but the weekend disappointments might still be fresh in some punters minds.

Celtic are a massive 12.00 with Bet365 for the win and even though they are running away with their domestic title again and held City to a 3-3 draw at Parkhead, they won’t be getting anything from this one.

The match prices look spot on offering very little value, and the best way to profit is to get with goals.

In Celtic’s four group C matches 17 goals have been scored, and it’s a similar story over in Barcelona with 18 goals featured in their four matches; over 2.5 goals looks the banker bet, but again it’s a very short price at the 1.50 with Coral. Over 3.5 goals in the game looks a better play for smaller punters at a more generous 2.25.

Despite Barcelona offering an incredible goal threat from all over the pitch but mainly from their front three of Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi, they are always vulnerable to concede, and both teams to score “yes” looks another nice bet at 1.91 with William Hills.

With goals expected and obviously an away win more than likely, instead of playing the 1.30 on a Barcelona win, it might pay to look at some nice correct-score bets. I like 3-1 and 4-1 for the visitors at 11.0 and 17.0 which pays 6.60 coupled.

UEFA Champions League: Will City Clinch a Knockout Place?

Manchester City reached the semi-finals of the Champions League last season without Pep Guardiola. They will surely expect the same again with him at the helm. City currently lead Borussia Monchengladbach by 3pts going into their pivotal tie with the Germans at Borussia-Park. The odds heavily favour City despite this seemingly tough away fixture.

Poor Recent form Hampers Borussia

Borussia Monchengladbach has been in poor form of late. Recent league defeats in the Bundesliga against Hertha Berlin and more recently FC Cologne at home has left them struggling in the bottom half of the table. The Germans know that nothing short of a win against City will be good enough. That fact will surely play into City’s hands.

City, on the other hand, has just had a morale boosting league win. They have dropped valuable points recently in the league with several drawn games. The late winner that gave them a 2-1 win away to Crystal Palace on Saturday was badly needed. The big plus for Guardiola from that game was the presence of Yaya Toure.

Will Toure Play on Wednesday

There is no doubt that Yaya Toure is one of the best players in the Premier League when he is fully fit and on his “A” game. If Guardiola gets a fully fit Toure back into his squad playing regularly then it will seem like signing a new player. Toure hadn’t played since August before Saturday’s game at Palace. The look on Guardiola’s face at the final whistle was that of a man that knew Toure would make a big difference to their season.

City cannot afford any slip-ups on Wednesday. They will surely want to qualify for the knockout stage before they host Celtic in the final game. There is another factor at work too. City beat Barcelona 3-1 in their previous group game. That only puts them 2pts behind the Spaniards. So they will not want to miss out on a Barcelona slip up and not claim top spot in the group.

Qualification is Key

The big goal for City though is to qualify for the knockout stages. A defeat in Germany would put that in doubt. Bet365 are quoting City at 4/5 against Borussia which seems fair. Borussia is 16/5 and the draw is 11/4. Manchester City has the players to pick the Germans apart, who must surely press for the win.

Guardiola’s team dominated the Germans in the home leg and the gulf in class was obvious. It will be a huge result for Monchengladbach to get all three points from this tie. Realistically they are probably fighting Celtic for the third place spot and a Europa League place after Christmas.

The Germans will probably secure that anyway seeing as Celtic face Barcelona and then a trip to City in their remaining fixtures. It is worth repeating, though, that the return of Yaya Toure could be the pivotal point for Manchester City this season both in the league and in Europe.