Real Madrid might be firing on all cylinders in La Liga this season, but the Spanish side’s form in the Champions League has been far from vintage. With two wins and two draws, one of which was against bottom of Group E Legia Warsaw, Real Madrid are currently second in the table behind Dortmund.
Although Zinedine Zidane’s men have yet to taste defeat in La Liga or the Champions League this season, they’ve certainly been tested. In fact, the last time Real squared-off against Sporting Lisbon, the players found themselves on the back foot for much of the game.
Despite playing at home, the current champions were unable to find a break against Sporting in the first half and eventually fell behind within three minutes of the restart. Thanks to some solid forward pressure by the likes of Gelson Martins and Bas Dost, Sporting finally got their reward courtesy of Cesar.
Defensive Frailties Cost Real
A series of defensive blunders from Luka Modric and Sergio Ramos gave the visitors the break they’d been searching for and they didn’t waste their opportunity. Unfortunately, Real’s attacking prowess was always there in the background and, despite being under the cosh, two late strikes from Cristiano Ronaldo and Alvaro Morata stole a victory from the jaws of defeat.
Although the record books will show that Real Madrid won the match, the details certainly don’t reflect well on a side looking to defend its Champions League title. So why did Zidane’s men struggle? One thing’s for sure, it wasn’t for a lack of opportunities. According to the stats, Real had 15 shots during the game; 11 of which were inside the box. The problem, however, is that just three of those were on target.
That kind of strike-to-target ratio is simply not good enough in the Champions League. Indeed, when you consider that Sporting had seven shots on target and an accuracy rating of 66.7%, it’s easy to see how they almost nicked the game with a single goal.
Of course, all the blame doesn’t sit with the frontline. Sporting’s goal came as the result of a defensive error and, throughout the game, it didn’t look as though Ramos, Marcelo and Daniel Carvajal were working in unison. In fact, this defensive frailty was also evident during Real’s 3-3 draw with Legia Warsaw.
Odds Favour Madrid but Dynamics Could Help Sporting
This time around, the bookmakers aren’t predicting any major upsets. However, given the last match was so tight, this could be a mistake. Sun Bets currently has the home side as the 4/1 outsiders while Madrid is coming in at 3/5. Paddy Power’s team are equally pessimistic about Sporting’s chances with identical odds on a home win and 8/15 on the visitors taking all three points.
What appears to be missing from the analysis here is Real’s propensity to make mistakes at the back. While it’s true that Sporting have only managed four goals in four games, Jorge Jesus’ men have shown they’re capable of some tough forward pressure. Moreover, we already know that Cesar and Dost are more than capable of capitalising on defensive mistakes.
It’s also worth noting that Real will be heading into the match after what promises to be a tough derby game against Atletico Madrid. As is the case in any derby game, passion can often give rise to some crunching tackles and unexpected knocks. If that proves to be the case, Real could be in for a tough night on November 22.
With Morata diagnosed with a grade 2 muscle injury to his hamstring following international duty, Madrid can’t afford to lose any more players before their next Champions League match. Indeed, if Morata isn’t at full fitness, it could turn this match into a real slugfest. Although a Sporting win might be too much of a stretch, there could be some value in a draw. Coral is currently offering 3/1 on that result and, if Morata misses the game, there’s certainly a chance this could happen.
There’s Value in a Repeat
Of course, if you feel that Real will still have too much for Sporting and you want to get a little more specific, a score cast could be profitable. As we know, Madrid can score, but they can also concede. With this in mind, another 2-1 prediction in favour of the visitors could see you earn 7/1 on your stake at Coral.
On paper, this game should see Real Madrid clinch another three points. However, given the previous game and the current injury issues, things may not go to plan when the Spanish giants travel to Lisbon on November 22.
