Amazing Grace to Land the Big Money Prize

THE European Tour comes to an end this week with the big money DP World Tour Championships from the stunning Jumeirah Golf Resort, Dubai.

The market is headed by the man who has the best record in this event, and that is the defending champion Rory McIlroy who is as short at 3.25 favourite to win his third Dubai title.

McIlory has a fantastic record at Jumeirah winning twice in the last four years, and making the top five on every occasion in that period.

The former World number one looks certain to be in the shake-up, but odds of just 3.25 in such a stellar field like this really aren’t the kind of prices that excite me.

Henrik Stenson and Danny Willett will be having their own private battle to see who finishes top of the European money lists, and of the two, The Open champion Stenson is the more likely winner.

The Swede won here in both 2013 and 2014, and with top-seven finishes in the last three years, he will be a popular choice at the general 7.00.

Willett finished fourth here last year, but despite an encouraging 11th finish last week at the Nedbank, the US Masters champion hasn’t been in the best form since winning the green jacket in April, and 46.0 odds reflect his chances of success this week.

BRANDEN GRACE looks my idea of the winner at a very tempting 23.0 with BoyleSports.

The South African is the man for the “big occasion” always playing well at the big money events, and they don’t come much bigger than in Dubai this week.

Last year the 28-year-old finished in a share of third place, which was his third top 10 finish in Dubai in the last four visits, and he arrives this time around in in good form.

At the Nedbank last week Grace finished in third place, and with a fourth finish in the last major of the season at the US PGA Championships, he looks very capable of mounting a serious title challenge this week.

For each-way backers, VICTOR DUBUISSON is worth a couple of pounds each-way at the general 51.0.

Last week at the Nedbank, the likable Frenchman bounced back to form finishing in third place along with the South African playing some fantastic golf in a final round 66, and he should be full of confidence arriving at a venue where he always plays well.

In 2014 Dubuisson was runner-up to Stenson, and in 2013 he finished in third position behind the Swede again, and in good form and at a venue he loves playing, that could be a winning combination this week.

BetVictor Gold Cup Opens Cheltenham Jumps Season

We’re heading to Gloucestershire and the iconic Cheltenham course for the weekend’s highlight and the first meeting of the new jumps season – the Grade 3 BetVictor Gold Cup. To be run on the Old Course over a distance of 2m 4½f (4124 metres), it dates back to 1960 and was known as the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase until last year. It’s appropriate that in the week of Remembrance Day that there’s racing at Cheltenham as the venue served as a busy Great War hospital a century ago.

Graveyard for favourites

This is a race where, history shows, it’s best to steer clear of the market leaders. Irish trainer Jonjo O’Neill has high hopes for More Of That for next year’s Cheltenham festival, and the 4-1 pick will need to live up to that billing to end a seven-year drought for favourites. The last to triumph was Tranquil Sea (2009), and he is the only favourite to win in the past decade. Long Run (2010) and Present View (2014) placed in third.

Seven is the lucky number

Experience also counts in this early season chase. Six of the past 10 winners have been seven-year-olds with Caid Du Berlais (2014) the most recent to buck that trend as a five-year-old. No four-year-old has ever won this race so last week’s Wincanton winner Frodon has a tough task ahead. Not surprisingly, horses that are stepping up through the ratings are likely to impress this early in their prep. The key ratings numbers are 139-148, into which just seven of this year’s 19 runners qualify. Al Ferof (2012) was the last to fall outside this range (159).

Star power behind our pick

Although not ticking the age requirement, the value surrounding French gelding As De Mee is hard to ignore. Part-owned by actress Dame Judi Dench, the Paul Nicholls-trained six-year-old is into 8-1 joint second favourite behind stablemate Frodon and More Of That (both at 5-1). As De Mee was placed in Grade 1 novice chases last season and opened his winning account over fences in a Beginners’ Chase at Fontwell last month. The handicapper has generously left him alone on a very attractive mark of 139. Based on his second to More Of That here this time last year, he’s entitled to have a major say.

Do or Die for England in Four Nations Finale

Wayne Bennett’s prickly post game interviews and his side’s indifferent on-field performances have left many English rugby league fans questioning his commitment to the role, and thus Bennett’s long term tenability. After a first up loss against the Kiwis and a mediocre effort in Round 2 versus the Scots, Bennett’s English side are little chance to make the final of the tournament they’re hosting. Local fans could potentially live with that result if it was apparent that Bennett had the best interests of the team’s future at heart, and had blooded some new players or improved the way they were playing the game. However, there’s little evidence that any of those are happening, save for maybe the bold decision to use George Williams instead of Gareth Widdop.

Bennett’s side probably only have one game to show he’s the right man to take England rugby league to the next level. Unless they beat the Kangaroos handsomely, his side are unlikely to make the final. It’s a tough ask against an Australian side that have been brokenly accurate and stiffling in the first two rounds.

Let’s take a look at the key talking points ahead of the Round 3 clash:

Teams

Australia: Darius Boyd, Valentine Holmes, Josh Dugan, Greg Inglis, Blake Ferguson; Johnathan Thurston, Cooper Cronk; Matt Scott, Cameroon Smith (c), Aaron Woods , Matt Gillett, Boyd Cordner, Trent Merrin. Subs: David Klemmer, Michael Morgan, Tyson Frizell, Sam Thaiday.

England (from): John Bateman, Kevin Brown, George Burgess, Sam Burgess, Thomas Burgess, Daryl Clark, Mike Cooper, Luke Gale, James Graham, Ryan Hall, Chris Hill, Josh Hodgson, Jonny Lomax, Jermaine McGillvary, Mark Percival, Kallum Watkins, Elliott Whitehead, Gareth Widdop, George Williams.

Team Selection Talking Points

Australia: Mel Meninga is fielding his strongest side as he prepares for an anticipated final. As a result, Cooper Cronk returns to the side and James Maloney drops out.

England: Wayne Bennett is keeping his side close to his chest, but James Graham is expected to be fit. Given the Kiwis win overnight, the game has added importance and Bennett hasn’t announced his final 17.

Tournament Form

Australia: Despite making a number of changes to their team throughout the opening two rounds, the Kangaroos have looked exceptionally impressive. After putting away Scotland easily, they beat New Zealand comfortably without ever really hitting top gear. It’s easy to get the impression that they’re simply shadow boxing their way through the round robin stages in readiness to explode in the final.

England: After dropping their match against the Kiwis, Sam Burgess’s men bounced back with a hard fought win against neighbours Scotland. They weren’t impressive, but they did enough to get the W and stay in the competition. In the must win finale, England have to improve their defence and discipline, and hope for something special from new halves combination Luke Gale and George Williams.

Odds

Australia: $1.25 offered by bet365 is the best price on an Aussie win.

England: $4.50 at Luxbet.

Prediction and Tips

It was 10 years ago when England last had a win against Australia. It was in the Great Britain days and not England days, yet since then Australia have rolled on with almost metronomic consistency. We expect another Australian victory. We’re picking an Australian win by 10 points.

F1 Brazilian Grand Prix – Last Chance for Hamilton

The Brazilian GP begins on Sunday, and this race will be poignant simply because Ayrton Senna is buried not too far away from the famous Sao Paolo circuit. Senna was perhaps the last true Formula 1 genius to ever sit behind the wheel of a racing car. Surely Michael Schumacher would never have reached his record tally of world drivers’ championships were it not for the untimely death of Senna.

This Sunday is all about the battle between current championship leader Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton. Mercedes have been dominant this season. There has been little to choose between the two Mercedes drivers, who are first and second in the drivers’ championship. Rosberg has a 19pt lead with two races to go and many people feel that Hamilton really needs to win on Sunday. The question is will this give him a competitive edge over Rosberg?

Hamilton Off To a Flyer

The early practice sessions have Hamilton a full quarter of a second faster than Rosberg. SkyBet currently go 8/11 for Hamilton to win on Sunday. With 25pts for first place and 18pts for second, it is clear that Lewis Hamilton simply has no margin for error. Rosberg has never been world champion. Surely he will never get a better chance than this. Hamilton has won back to back titles and is the defending champion.

His aggressive style means that he will surely fight hard for the title. The 19pt lead for Rosberg highlights that if he drives defensively during the seasons’ final two races, the title will surely be his. Pit strategies will play a big part. Hamilton has the experience of being in this situation before, but a 19pt gap is surely too big even for a three-time world champion to overcome.

Back Rosberg to Take the Title

Many people believe that taking odds of 2/7 isn’t a good bet. Those are the odds quoted by SkyBet for Rosberg to take the title. The problem for Hamilton is that Mercedes have been so dominant this season. Rosberg can drive within himself and preserve the car, and that will surely impact on team strategy on Sunday.

There will be far greater demands on Hamilton’s car seeing how he must effectively win the race. Despite the short odds, the value bet must be in backing Rosberg to win the drivers’ championship either on Sunday or after the final race. Hamilton requires some sort of miracle when all the facts have been taken into account.

However, that doesn’t mean that he can’t prolong the fight by winning on Sunday. Because of the fact that Hamilton will be aggressive and Rosberg defensive, Hamilton looks favourite to win the Brazilian Grand Prix if his car doesn’t break down.

Portugal Expected to Run Riot on the Algarve

EUROPEAN champions Portugal host minnows Latvia at the Estadio do Algarve on Sunday night in World Cup qualifying Group B, and this could get very messy for the visitors.

The Portuguese are a very warm favourite for the win at general 1.07 which will give them their third successive international win and in the last two they’ve been banging in the goals for fun with 12 scored in two 6-0 wins over Andorra and The Faroe Islands.

Latvia arrive in the Algarve after back-to-back home defeats and even though some might be tempted by the massive 51.0 on the visitors to win this with Bet365, a $10 on them at the 50s means that you will LOSE $10.

The Latvians struggled to get past one of the worst sides in Europe, Andorra 1-0, in their only win in this campaign, and up against a Portugal side that is buzzing after their success in the summer, this is expected to be very, very one-sided.

The Asian handicap line is pitched at -2.75 for Portugal, which is 1.84 with Ladbrokes, and I can see them covering that line very easily and maybe before half-time.

In their previous meeting in 2005 Portugal ran out comfortable 3-0 winners and against a side that’s only scored just ONCE in qualification so far; for bigger hitting clients a Portugal win to nil looks like finding the cash on the street at the 1.45 that is being offered by BetVictor.

In recent Portugal matches, they’ve raced into early leads. I can see them flying out of the traps yet again in this one, and Portugal half-time/Portugal full-time will also appeal to money buyers at the 1.40 with Coral.

Cristiano Ronaldo is the star-man for the Portuguese, but the Real Madrid superstar is a very short 2.75 favourite to open the floodgates with the first goal.

Porto’s Andre Silva has scored four goals in four matches, and the 21-year-old striker is flying for both club and country at present with seven goals already in the Portuguese league; he makes much better appeal in the first goalscorer markets at the general 4.50, and in a match which could turn into a rout, I also like the 21.0 with Betfair Sportsbook on him to score his first international hat-trick.

The 2016 Grand Slam of Darts Betting

There are several darts tournaments on the calendar that really hit the heights when it comes to excitement. The Grand Slam of Darts is one such tournament. Gone are the days of smoke-filled tournament halls and mediocre players operating at the top end of the sport. The modern darts professional is as committed to their sport as any other leading sportsmen. It is also why the top ten in the world of darts seem to be so far ahead of the rest.

The Grand Slam of Darts takes place between the 12th and 26th November at the Wolverhampton Civic Hall. There is a cool £400,000 in prize money on offer with £100,000 going to the winner. The competition begins with eight groups of four players. The top two in each group reach the last 16, which is then a straight knockout all the way to the final. The early group stages are not going to be dull.

Early Excitement in the Groups

Group E looks very tasty with Gary Anderson facing formidable opposition in Alan Norris and Glen Durrant. The other fascinating line-up is in group G. We see the number six seed James Wade facing James Wilson, Jamie Hughes and Dave Chisnall. In the short race to five legs format then it will be tough to call the winner of that group.

So who will take down the title? As usual, the big names are certain to figure in the final shake up. Michael van Gerwen is the reigning champion. He beat Phil Taylor in an epic final last year 16-13. So it doesn’t come as any surprise that he is the clear favourite again. SkyBet has him at 5/6 which is too short given the strength of the field. Phil Taylor is 13/2 with Coral and better value.

Has “The Power” Peaked

Phil “The Power” Taylor has a record second to none in darts. In fact, it will never be surpassed in all likelihood. With so much powerful competition facing him these days then it is tougher for him to win titles. Gary Anderson has enough big game experience to win this title and he is 7/1 with Stan James. There will be surprises too. The short best of nine format in the group stages will throw up plenty of them.

In fact, the big favourites will be under the greatest pressure early on. Any player that starts with a defeat in the group stages will be under serious pressure. Michael van Gerwen begins his defence against three-time BDO champion Martin “Wolfie” Adams. If Adams can bring his “A” game to the oche then he has the experience to create a shock. The bookies don’t think so, and Bet365 have the Dutchman at 1/9.