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Champions League: Man City Need Perfection, Arsenal Need a Repeat

Posted on 2016-11-01 by Online Betting Pro

The Champions League proved to be a tale of two major scorelines for English clubs in recent weeks as Arsenal and Man City both found themselves in the middle of some end-to-end action.

For the former, the flow of action against Ludogorets was certainly a lot more positive than the latter’s experience against Barcelona. This time around, the action may not be as juicy, but there’s certainly likely to be some goals when Man City welcome Barcelona and Arsenal travel to Bulgaria to face Ludogorets.

No Pressure on Arsenal but Players Can’t Become Complacent

Starting with the more positive of the two match-ups, Arsenal will head into their second game against Ludogorets with almost no pressure. After blitzing the Bulgarians 6-0 in their Week 3 showdown, the Gunners can afford to take it easy on Tuesday night.

Now, that doesn’t mean Arsenal can completely relax, but it’s certainly safe to say they can play below par and still come away with a result. Indeed, we only have to look to Arsenal’s recent match against Reading in the League Cup. Yes, Wenger’s men won and yes they didn’t look under threat at any point, but it’s important to point out that they lacked a certain lustre.

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain was undoubtedly the shining light during the 2-0 win, but when it came to other forms of attack, the side was severely lacking. Now, it’s worth saying that it wasn’t the strongest Arsenal side possible, but if the players put in a similar performance against Ludogorets they could find themselves in trouble.

Arsenal Have too Much Firepower for Ludogorets

Of course, fans of the North London side will point to the 6-0 drubbing and say there’s nothing to worry about. This may be true, but in the Champions League, it’s also true that anything can happen, and a loss of concentration could prove costly going forward.

Now, if you’re of the mindset that Arsenal’s lacklustre performance against Reading will cost them valuable points in the Champions League, then Sun Bets will give you 17/2 on a Ludogorets win. If, however, you’re more inclined to think the Gunners will have too much firepower for the home side, 1/3 is the going price at Paddy Power.

For something a little more lucrative, Arsenal to win 4-0 is currently 14/1 at Paddy Power. Given that the last meeting between the two sides was all one-way traffic, this looks like a potentially juicy bet. For those wanting to spread their risk a little more, 5/6 on an Arsenal win + over 2.5 goals looks to be the value bet of the night.

City Face a Tough Task at Home

While Arsenal can look back to their previous Champions League game with a smile, Man City will want to forget theirs as quickly as possible. Although a loss to Barcelona is nothing to be ashamed of, the 4-0 deficit was possibly a little too much for even the most die-hard City fans to bear. According to the odds makers at Coral, the current Champions League betting line for a City win stands at 15/8.

Contrasting this with the 29/20 on offer for Barcelona and the 5/2 odds for the draw, anyone with any appreciation of betting lines can surmise that it’s going to be a lot closer this time around. City manager Pep Guardiola has already acknowledged that he faces an uphill struggle on November 1, but does believe Barcelona are beatable.

“I’d like us to show courage and put everything into the game. Hopefully, our quality can make the difference. For them it’s not a final, for us, it is like a final,” Guardiola told the media.

Perfection is Paramount if City wants to Beat Barca

Will it take an almost perfect performance to do it? Almost certainly. Is City capable of near perfect football? Again, almost certainly. In reality, the result of this Champions League clash will come down to two factors: who wants it more, and who makes the fewest mistakes. City has been sublime in the Premier League this season, but the Champions League has been a different story.

If City is going to win, they’ll need Sergio Aguero to be on top form. The Argentinean forward has scored 13 times this season, which is only one less than Lionel Messi. With both players proving they’re more than capable of scoring this season, 19/4 on Aguero to score first and 4/1 on Messi look like fantastic value. Indeed, even if you leave the outright odds to one side, these markets look to offer impressive alternative value.

Of course, if you do want to speculate on the outright winner, the smart money would be on Barcelona. The first encounter was, for all intents and purposes, a whitewash, and if all goes to plan, things won’t be any different this time around. Naturally, home advantage will give City something extra to play for this time around, but it’s hard to see past Luis Enrique’s men in this one.

Melbourne Cup To Remain On Home Soil

Posted on 2016-10-31 by Online Betting Pro

The “race that stops a nation” might sound clichéd, but it’s pretty close to the mark. At 3pm AEDT tomorrow (Tuesday), Australians across the expanse of the continent will stop work and either watch or listen to the AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup from Flemington in Melbourne. Even the most blasé will be quietly cheering on their Melbourne Cup betting pick from the office sweep, or the horse with a quirky name or wearing their favourite colours.

For those hoping to combine the day with the real thing, there are a staggering 42 TAB or picnic meetings scheduled – from Ascot to Alice Springs, Mount Isa to Morphettville and everywhere in between. Racing is big business in Sydney, but Royal Randwick’s biggest crowd of the year is Melbourne Cup Day. Meanwhile, the Flemington Lawn on the first Tuesday in November is one of the few places that you are likely to witness someone dressed as a horse watching the horses go by – it’s a day where anything goes trackside.
A Melbourne Cup deserves Melbourne weather

An iconic Melbourne day deserves some of the city’s unpredictable weather, with the forecast for a cool and clear morning giving way to afternoon showers with winds up to 20km/h. The latter is a major factor at Flemington – the wind sweeps up along the Maribyrnong River from nearby Port Phillip Bay. Astute jockeys know where it’s important to find cover from the wind, which was a huge factor here on Turnbull Stakes day.

There’s only been minimal rainfall since Derby Day so the track should again fall into the good (4) range and there’s unlikely to be an upgrade if it stays cool. The track raced very evenly on Saturday, so it isn’t terribly relevant that the rail remains in the true position. It also remains a day where it’s bloody tough to find a winner – the smallest fields contain 14 runners with the bulk closer to capacity.

Massive public money a boon for punters

The Melbourne Cup is unlike any other race of the year for serious punters. Public money floods into the betting pools like no other day, and the bookies are more than happy to let them get on. The favourites are almost always under the odds (as is the case with the top two, Hartnell and Jameka, this year) but there’s a stack of value on the rest of the genuine contenders.

The blanket media coverage and myriad expert opinions make it tough to stay objective, and as Prince Of Penzance showed in 2015, history can count for nothing depending on the circumstances of the day. But it would surprise if the winner did not emerge from this quartet – #9 Almoonqith ($31 with William Hill), #11 Grand Marshal ($34), #12 Jameka ($7.50) and #17 Almandin ($11). The Caulfield Cup winner Jameka just might turn out be in the class of Makybe Diva but can’t be seriously entertained at such a short quote.

Waller to end his Cup drought

Instead, Grand Marshal looks the bulletproof pick. Trainer Chris Waller presides over the dominant stable in the country, but the nation’s biggest prize has so far eluded him. He left Flemington gutted after Preferment fell short last year, but was buoyant after his Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) quinella of Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman. His seven-year-old gelding also won the Sydney Cup (3200m) over the stablemate in the autumn, and he’s had a generously spaced prep heading into his grand final. Notably, Grand Marshal missed his planned lead-up run in the Geelong Cup due to administrative oversight, which will make a nice headline for the local sub-editors should he pinch the ultimate prize in Australian racing. Good luck punters!

It’s All About Park Life On Cup Day

Posted on 2016-10-29 by Online Betting Pro

The pouts and poses will be just as important as the hats and heels on Tuesday.

Race goers will be using social media rather than a stylist to elevate their look and the Victorian Racing Club is doing all it can to encourage the trend.

Its clotheshorse for this year’s Myer Fashions on the Field is Stephanie Smith, described by the club as a Melbourne “IT girl” and “Instagram-famous model”.

Quite a departure from the 2015 Fashions on the Field ambassador Georgia Connolly who competed as an equestrian eventer, or 2013’s ambassador Rebecca Bramich who had studied a Senior Horsemasters Course.

The VRC says Smith suits Flemington’s new precinct – The Park.

Created with the 18-35 age group in mind The Park includes a supersized Myer Fashions on the Field enclosure, live entertainment, restaurant pop-ups and four bars.

It carries the tagline “Eat Drink Dress-Up and Dance” and is located on the hill adjacent to the train station.

Purists will no doubt be offended that the only horses park visitors are likely to see will be ones on the vintage carousel within the precinct.

Despite these changes the VRC has not loosened the reins on its dress code.

Race goers will be expected to follow the rules, which include no crop-tops, no cutouts, obligatory ties and socks for the men.

Smith says while outfits needed to be classic and polished, it was possible to achieve that with a modern look.

“A lot of people assume race wear is just about girly dresses in classic shapes, but these days it’s a lot more than that,” she said on her Myer blog.

“Pants are a great option for the races – I love a chic cigarette leg trouser paired with a fitted blazer or a beautiful palazzo pant worn with a delicate lace top.

“The options are endless, so don’t feel confined to only dresses.”

Smith also encouraged race goers to embrace their inner rainbow for the running of the Melbourne Cup.

“If there was ever a time to wear colour, it’s at the Melbourne Cup Carnival. I always love wearing red, as it’s a simple way to really make a statement with your look.”

“If wearing a solid block colour is a little too much for you, try adding coloured accessories to a neutral dress.”

Ladies hoping to emulate Smith’s style, which has garnered her one million Instagram followers, should look to her favourite labels, which include Asilio, By Johnny and Misha Collection.

Last year’s celebrities certainly got the memo with all the big names choosing bold colours for the race that stops a nation.

Jennifer Hawkins was almost blinding in neon yellow, Megan Gale turned heads in a vibrant green lace mini dress and Emma Freedman stood out in a red tuxedo suit.

But Ashley Hart outdid them all in an eclectic skirt and blouse combination that mixed stripes, Scottish tartan and Indian inspired prints in red, blue green and yellow.

She topped it off with giant pom pom earrings and a husband dressed in a three-piece suit with each element created from a different fabric.

Of course creating the perfect kaleidoscope is no use if you can’t share it online, so remember to charge your phone before you leave home.

If your battery doesn’t go the distance, Flemington has eight free recharge stations in the public area.

They are suitable for Apple and Android devices and some cameras.

Field Locked In For 2016 Melbourne Cup

Posted on 2016-10-29 by Online Betting Pro

From the moment that correct weight is announced for the final race on Victoria Derby Day, the focus shifts immediately to Tuesday’s AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m). The field was finalised today after Oceanographer, one of Godolphin’s five runners in the race, won the G3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) today.

The field of 24 runners again underlines the international interest in the world’s richest handicap race, which will be run at Flemington on Tuesday at 3pm. Just one locally bred horse, Caulfield Cup winner and second favourite Jameka ($7.50 with William Hill), will take its place in the field. A total of 10 internationally-trained runners have earned a spot in the field (eight from Europe and one each from Japan and New Zealand), with the remainder bred overseas but trained locally. So, where is the value to be found in the 2016 Melbourne Cup betting markets?

Payne’s legacy looms large

Cup Day is a wonderfully unique day on the Australian sporting calendar. It’s a public holiday in Melbourne, so the celebrations stretch will beyond the confines of the Flemington track. TAB outlets are packed as soon as their doors open, as once-a-year punters scour the form guide in search of the ultimate return for their annual flutter.

Those numbers are also likely to be bolstered after last year’s fairytale victory of Prince Of Penzance. Rated a 150-1 outsider, the six-year-old gelding scored in a massive upset. It also marked the first time a female jockey, Michelle Payne, had ridden a Cup winner. Payne’s profile now sits alongside those of the nation’s greatest sporting heroes. Katelyn Mallyon will be hoping to emulate Payne’s achievement on Assign this year.

Prince took the reign

The victory of Prince Of Penzance flew in the face of several long established trends, as the Melbourne Cup is a bloody tough race to win. Primarily, he was unproven at 3200 metres, but Payne made the most of a rails run after Frankie Dettori (on runner-up Max Dynamite) wiped out one-quarter of the field with an ill-timed shift at the 350m-mark, which earned him a fine and a one-month suspension. It’s a combination of factors that generally add up to just a handful of Cup runners having any hope of victory – the ability to run out a strong 3200 metres on firm going under handicap conditions. Some are weighted ideally, some have great staying ability and others love a hard track, but the combination proves a death knell for the bulk of the international contenders.

The winning formula

But having eliminated those without a genuine chance (the marathon trip from Europe, a long break between runs, weight, barrier and questionable Northern Hemisphere form are other impediments worth consideration), there are some proven filters to run through the remaining contenders to devise a list of potential winners. In the 24 editions of the Melbourne Cup since 1991, 17 winners had returned a career-best rating at their previous start. This tells us that the horse has been given the best possible preparation and is in the best form of his or her career. A short campaign in the autumn carnivals (in Australia or New Zealand) also suits Melbourne Cup runners. This factor has produced seven winners in the past 16 years.

First-up drought to end?

Normally, it’s worth steering clear of the international runners that have not had a previous run in Australia. Since 1993, when Vintage Crop won for Ireland, there have been more than 80 international starters entered in the Cup without a previous run in Australia. A handful has come extraordinarily close to victory but records show they all fell short. It’s actually a very weak Cup field that will again feature just a handful of winning chances – they include the Japanese runner Curren Mirotic, Wicklow Brave (barrier 24 and Dettori aboard aren’t ideal), Bondi Beach, Almoonqith (but must be ridden aggressively) and, at a stretch, Exospheric and Hartnell. Watch for our late mail update on Cup Eve.

Southampton vs. Chelsea: Can the Saints Pull off a Miracle?

Posted on 2016-10-28 by Online Betting Pro

To say Southampton have over performed so far this season would be an understatement. The Saints are currently sitting eighth in the Premier League after nine matches with three wins and four draws. Add to that record just two losses and eight goals against, and Southampton are nipping at the heels of Manchester United.

However, with another tough match against Chelsea set to take place this Sunday, the question is: can Claude Puel’s men upset the odds?

Peruse the current betting markets for Southampton vs. Chelsea and you’ll see the odds are firmly in favour of the visitors. Heading into the game, Chelsea are priced at 11/8 for the win at Paddy Power and 7/5 with Sun Bets. Although not overwhelming odds, especially since you can find betting lines around the 19/10 mark, the current state of play would suggest that Chelsea are the betting favourites at the very least.

Chelsea Scoring Goals for Fun

Antonio Conte certainly hasn’t had it all his own way at Chelsea this season. Indeed, the Blues’ recent cup defeat to West Ham won’t exactly go down as a glittering moment in his career. However, with three straight wins in the Premier League, including a 4-0 drubbing of Manchester United, he certainly appears to be doing something right.

Perhaps the biggest threat Chelsea pose a lot of teams at the moment is their firepower. 19 goals for and just nine against in their first nine games is an impressive figure. Diego Costa has already bagged seven this season, and with his presence being felt on the training pitch this week, there’s every chance he’ll find the mark on October 30. According to Coral’s odds makers, Costa is 6/4 to score at anytime during the match and 4/1 to score in either half. Given his form so far this season, 4/1 for him to score in the first half looks a great bet.

However, if there’s one thing we know about Southampton this season, it’s that they know how to draw. Much like an artist knows how to draw a straight line, Southampton has managed to stifle teams with a strong defensive line. Cedric, Maya Yoshida and Jordy Clasie have all held strong at crucial times this season, and that’s allowed the Saints to pick up a point against Manchester City. Of course, holding a team to a draw isn’t quite the same as out-playing them and getting the win, but given the club’s relative size (metaphorically), a draw with the league leaders isn’t a bad result.

A Strong Saints Side Could Score a Draw

23/10 on the draw is the current price at Sun Bets, but if you want to take that a step further and start predicting the scoreline, 11/2 on a 1-1 draw is a fair price at Paddy Power. If you stick to this assumption that Southampton will be able to fend off Chelsea’s attacks long enough to secure a point, then 6/1 on the Blues to come from behind to draw is great value.

Southampton took the lead against Man City early but couldn’t stay strong long enough to get the win. The same could certainly happen again on Sunday. An early goal for the Saints would certainly settle the nerves, but there’s little chance it would be enough against a Chelsea side seemingly capable of scoring at will this season.

From an objective perspective, this game looks to have a Chelsea win written all over it. However, Southampton’s players have shown they’re more than capable of thwarting the ambitions of bigger clubs and there’s no reason they couldn’t do the same over the weekend. Indeed, while the majority of the money will be on an away win, the smart money is likely to be on a draw in all its forms.

Make sure you check out our betting partners for the latest Southampton vs. Chelsea betting odds.

Kiwis Looking to End Poor Run of Form

Posted on 2016-10-28 by Online Betting Pro

In a first round Four Nations clash to savour, two newly appointed national coaches go head-to-head in Huddersfield.

However, the coaches couldn’t be any more different. England’s coach, Wayne Bennett, is one of Rugby League’s super coaches. A veteran of State of Origin, NRL and Super League, the Hall of Famer has won more NRL titles than any other coach (7). And while he’s only recently started working with England, he has more Rugby League IP than any one else on the planet. The transition should be seamless.

On the other hand, new Kiwis coach David Kidwell, hasn’t yet coached a club side in a head coaching capacity. While he’s worked as an assistant with the Storm and the Tigers in the NRL, his pedigree doesn’t reach anywhere near the heights of Bennet’s.

Kidwell will therefore need a huge effort from his captain Jesse Bromwich and the rest of the leadership group to overcome a series loss to England the last time the two sides met. Especially considering the form England bring into the match after they destroyed France 40-6 in last week’s warm up.

Here’s how the teams shape up for the Round 1 match up, and our prediction as to what to expect:

Teams

New Zealand: Jordan Kahu; Jason Nightingale, Solomone Kata, Shaun Kenny- Dowall, Jordan Rapana; Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson; Jesse Bromwich (capt), Issac Luke, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Kevin Proctor, Tohu Harris, Jason Taumalolo. Bench: Lewis Brown, Martin Taupau, Manu Ma’u, Adam Blair.

England: John Bateman, George Burgess, Sam Burgess, Tom Burgess, Daryl Clark, Mike Cooper, Liam Farrell, Luke Gale, James Graham, Ryan Hall, Chris Hill, Josh Hodgson, Jonny Lomax, Jermaine McGillvary, Dan Sarginson, Kallum Watkins, Elliott Whitehead, Gareth Widdop, George Williams.

Team Selection Talking Points

New Zealand: No changes from the team that lost to Australia in Perth, as Kidwell keeps the faith. He’ll be looking for more out of his big forward pack at both ends of the field. He obviously needs them to make metres, but he also needs them to protect Shaun Johnson on defence -Johnson made 34 tackles against the Kangaroos, that’s too many for your chief playmaker. It will be interesting to see how Waerea-Hargreaves goes. He’s under a huge amount of pressure to keep his place after a disappointing stint last time out.

England: Bennett has made a number of changes to the side he used against France, notably, significantly shuffling the look of his interchange. He is no longer carrying three backs on the bench in order to accommodate more forward firepower. Luke Gale has been given the start in the number 7 number and will partner Widdop. Gale’s been rewarded for stellar club form that has seen him win the Albert Goldthorpe Medal for the last two years playing for Castleford. Utility Dan Sarginson makes his return after a two year hiatus.

Form

New Zealand: L, L, L, W, L, W (all against either Australia or England)

England: W, W, L, W, W, L (all against either New Zealand or France)

Odds

New Zealand: $1.80 at Luxbet and Betfair

England: $2.23 at Unibet

Prediction and Tips

Having earlier predicted an Australia / England Four Nations final, it would be counter-intuitive to predict anything other than an England win here. Games played in the Northern Hemisphere are usually close encounters and we’re not expecting anything different. With the home crowd support squeaking England home, the $6.50 offered by Sportsbet for an England win by 6-10 looks like great money.

Author: Online Betting Pro