Horse Racing Preview – Monday 18th May

There is horse racing action on turf at Redcar, Leicester and Windsor on Monday and we have tips at all three meetings.

The 3.50 at Redcar sees a very quick reappearance for Desert Law who finished third at York last week. We made him a speculative each-way selection in a big field and he stuck on well enough after looking to hold every chance at the furlong pole. It is interesting that he turns out again so quickly with Graham Lee taking over in the saddle. He may have seen too much daylight that day as he is not the easiest horse to win with. The big danger looks to be Noble Asset who was a good second at Doncaster last time.

The 7.05 race at Windsor has only attracted three runners but Silver Wings looks good value at around even money. He bounced out smartly and made all here on his debut but missed a beat at the start at Chester. He soon made up the ground and looked set to win at the furlong pole only to be out-battled by Rah Rah. That could turn out to be very decent form and he is preferred to Soapy Aitken.

In the 7.35 race, Roger Varian runs Tazffin, a well-bred maiden who was second at Newmarket to Irish Rookie on her debut last season. That filly was second in the French 1000 Guineas this spring while Tazffin’s dam was the useful Tarfshi, winner of the Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland. Varian has decided to run her in a hood on Monday so she may have her quirks but most of her rivals have never seen a racecourse before.

At Leicester, there is a fascinating handicap at 7.45. Richard Fahey was overshadowed at York by Mark Johnston last week but did finally get on the score-sheet on Friday and has had two more winners since. He saddles impressive Musselburgh winner, Third Time Lucky.

He made all to slam Go Dan Go on the Scottish track and looks very leniently treated here on a mark of 79. The runner-up has since won twice, last time by five lengths off a mark of 74. There are dangers, particularly Godolphin’s Muqarred and the John Gosden-trained Occult, but 9-2 looks a good price for the Fahey runner.

Desert Law 3.50 Redcar @3-1 Ladbrokes

Silver Wings 7.05 Windsor @11-10 Betfair

Tazffin 7.35 Windsor @2-1 Bet365

Third Time Lucky 7.45 Leicester @9-2 Ladbrokes

Sha Tin 16th May Tips!

HONG KONG RACING SATURDAY 16 MAY 2015

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

Back to back meets on a Saturday but we will be back to Sunday next week with some great racing leading into some very high class Group racing the following week so stick with it and enjoy what is heading our way. Not an easy card today but the last four races certainly look full of some excellent talent and we should be getting collects in those races. Singapore is the main focus this weekend in this part of the world and we have some great Hong Kong raiders who should make their mark once again in this International Group Meet and I really do like their chances.

In the 4th Leg of the Global Sprint Challenge we have Lucky Nine-Aerovelocity and Rich Tapestry and I believe we will go very close to trifecting this race if not the exacta. You can throw in No 5 Zac Spirit for the added exotic selection.

In race 10 we have Military Attack and Dan Excel. Dan Excel won this race last year and has been working up very well leading into this and does look primed for today but you cannot leave out Military Attack who has looked a bit under his normal self recently but on his best form will certainly go close here.

Both races look exciting and the Hong Kong raiders should prove to be very hard to hold out here.

Enjoy the form this weekend at Sha Tin and Singapore and above all good luck.

 

Track and Conditions: Turf C Course with the exception of races 1 and 10 which are on the All Weather Dirt Track.

 

Expected Weather: Mainly cloudy with a few showers and a top temperature of 31 degrees. The wind will be from the south at about the 30 Km/h mark but occasionally gusting up to 40Km/h which will aid closers with a tailwind down the straight but more so on the turf than the AWT.

 

 Best Bet: Race 6 No 1 Athena Baby

Best Value: Race 8 No 7 Sergeant Titanium

Best Exotic Races: 7-8-9-10

Quaddie:-

Race 7: 7-10-9-1 Race 8: 6-7 Race 9: 5-2-8-7 Race 10: 7-5-1-2-12

 

Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 5-     AWT

Top Pick: No 3 Dragon Energy

Value Selection: No 6 Joy Together

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Super King Star and No 1 Palepale

 

Race Overview

 

This is the most difficult race that I have had to look at all season so for me it is not the type of race you want to get involved in at all but having said that we may get lucky. Dragon Energy drops back in class today and his last run at this class produced a nice win on this surface over this distance with a similar weight to what he carries today. Comes up with a nice draw in gate three and should be given every chance with Zac Purton in the saddle. Joy Together dropped back in class last start and should have improved as he was not too far away at his previous starts at class four. However he gave ground entering the straight and may very well have had a few issues but was unable to be scoped as he was fractious. May prove to overlook that run and give him a bit of a chance here at decent odds.

 

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 14 Horse Supremo

Selection: No 9 Golden Bauhinia

Exotic Inclusions: No 6 Panang Hall and No 2 Sugar / No 4 Mr Wright

 

Race Overview

 

Horse Supremo does appear to go best on the All Weather Track however he does possess good gate speed and has came up with a nice draw in gate 12 which should see him in a nice position throughout the running down the grandstand rail and can sneak into the finish with a bit of a chance if he can hold on over the concluding stages. Golden Bauhinia it’s been a fair while since he carried a weight as light as this and it has to put him in a decent position down the Sha Tin straight which is his main course and distance. His form has been reasonable this season without winning and not too far away recently considering he has not had much of a draw but comes up with gate 10 today which will help him get down the grandstand rail and should be well positioned in the running.

 

 

Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 2200m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 4 Win Chance

Value Selection: No 10 High Speed Metro

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Sweet Bean and No 9 Smart Guy

 

Race Overview

 

Win Chance looks to have found a bit of form since dropping back to this class and his last two runs have been quite solid with a 2nd followed up with a nice win last start over the 2000m at Sha Tin. Has placed on two occasions this season over this distance all be it at Happy Valley. If he holds form he should run well today. High Speed Metro has put together a few nice runs recently and won over this distance three starts back all be it at Happy Valley at this class but appears to be holding form with two good 2nd’s since. He has trained on well and still looks well weighted and has to be a consideration once again today at current nice each way odds.

 

 

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 2 Run Forrest

Value Selection: No 3 Ah Bo

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Beauty Ahead and No 10 Chevalier Star

 

. Race Overview

 

Run Forrest showed good improvement to win at his third start in Hong Kong over this distance last start. As a result he goes up in the weights but would not have to improve too much to give this a good shake as well. Suited by the draw in gate 6 and has Zac Purton in the saddle. Ah Bo looks very close to breaking his Hong Kong duck as he has been placed on five occasions this season and has gone very close at the last two occasions. Drawn wide but he retains his last start hoop and he can close and should be getting home hard once again today.

 

Race Overview

 

   Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 1 Sun Jewellery

Value Selection: No 6 Lucky Bubbles

Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Spice Sure and No 4 Star Of Bond

 

Race Overview

 

Sun Jewellery having his first start in Hong Kong and looks to have the ability to go well first up as his trails have been good and all have been with race day hoop in Joao Moreira in the saddle. Comes to Hong Kong with decent Victorian form and put together a couple of wins there. Drawn wide but does possess decent gate speed and is expected to cross and be in a decent position in the running. Lucky Bubbles just the one start in Hong Kong and it was for a nice closing 3rd over the 1000m from an outside draw which was not really suitable over the straight course. Comes up with a nice draw today in gate 4 and retains Brett Prebble in the saddle and does look a touch of value as he has trained on nicely as well.

 

 

Race 6: — Time: 07.35am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 1 Athena Baby

Value Selection: No 5 Winnam

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Glorious Ryder and No 3 Fighting Boy

 

Race Overview

 

Athena Baby has certainly improved leaps and bounds at his last two starts which he won well with Joao Moreira in the saddle. He retains the mount today and should get a nice trail in the running from gate 2. Only has to carry the weight here to be another very solid chance looking at this field. Winnam won over this distance five starts back and has had to shoulder extra weight since then. Stuck on well last start for a good third and does look a bit of an each way chance today with Zac Purton back in the saddle.

 

 

Race 7: — Time: 8.05am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 2

Top Pick: No 7 Celestial Smile

Value Selection: No 10 Club Life

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Selkirk Star and No 1 Apollo’s Choice

 

Race Overview

 

Celestial Smile is far too consistent to leave out here. He has had 14 starts in Hong and has not been out of a place which is most amazing and Joao Moreira has been on him more times than not. Carried a light weight last start and ran a nice 2nd. Up a touch in the weights as a result of his consistency but still looks in ok. Comes up with a nice draw and should get a good trail in the running. Looks a very good chance if you can get each way odds but he may very well be a bit unders with Joao in the saddle. Club Life rarely runs a bad race, a consistent type and more times than not he is at each way odds and looks fairly well placed once again today. Up a touch in the weights but still looks ok for his 3rd start at class 2.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1280m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 6 Holmes Legend

Value Selection: No Sergeant Titanium

Exotic Inclusions: No 11 Cash Courier and No 13 Monsieur Mogok

 

Race Overview

 

Holmes Legend does not stay in form for too long but he did run a nice 3rd over this distance last start and Joao Moreira has jumped straight on board today which gives you the impression that he should run well once again today as he still looks in well at the weights. Sergeant Titanium has shown to be an improving type and went up to this class two starts back. Went well on the first occasion for a nice 3rd but looked to have issues last start when he was found to be lame in the right front leg. He certainly was not happy and refused to be scoped. Has worked well since and should be back on track today. Looks value on his previous form. Interesting to see that Joao Moreira has gone off him and jumped straight onto Holmes Legend. However he has a very good replacement in Brett Prebble “The Master of the Weave ” 🙂 in the saddle.

 

 

Race 9: — Time: 9.10pm GMT—Distance: 1400m— Class 3

Top Pick: No 5 Amazing Kids

Value Selection: No 2 Why Why

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Super Talent and No 7 Laugh Out Loud

 

Race Overview

 

Amazing Kids just the one start in Hong Kong and it was for a very nice closing win over the 1200m. Was to step up to the 1400m which does look right up his ally last start but was found to be sweating up a bit and as a result was withdrawn as he did look to have a fever. All good since then and track work has been spot on. Drawn well to suite and Joao Moreira jumps straight into the saddle. Why Why has only been out of a place on one occasion since arriving in Hong Kong and that was for a 4th. Up in distance today but has been closing off very hard recently over the 1200m and this just may suite. He is certainly weighted at his best but does come across as a decent chance here.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.45pm GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 1

Top Pick: No: 7 Dehere’s The Love

Value Selection: No 5 Master Kochanwong

Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Domineer and No 2 Access Years / No 12 Pablosky

 

                                                         Race Overview

 

A fair few chances here once again but Dehere’s The Love has been lightly races this season but is in cracking form and really does appreciate this surface. Comes up with a nice draw in gate 4 and retains Joao Moreira in the saddle. Only has to stay in form to give this a real shake once again and his track work does indicate that. Master Kochanwong has been going through the classes well and had a crack at group racing last start, found it a bit rich but still ran a very nice race. Up in the weights but still looks in well against this field and has to come under consideration today as he has came up with a nice draw in gate 5 and Douglas Whyte is back in the saddle.    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AFL Round 7 Preview

Two months into the AFL season and we’re now starting to get a good handle of where the teams are at.  Fremantle obviously appear to be the team to beat, but with so many upsets thrown around last week, it’s getting harder to separate the mid table sides.  We’ll do our best to come back form our horror tipping show last week, and provide some better quality predictions this week in our AFL Round 7 Preview:

Essendon v North Melbourne

Essendon – $2.35

North Melbourne – $1.60

I doubt this one will be one for the purists but it is an important match for the two teams.  Essendon host North Melbourne in the Round 7 opener where both teams will be looking to stay in touch with the top 8 after up and down starts to the season.

North Melbourne are favourites on the back of their defeat of Richmond last week.  They should be too strong for an Essendon side that have gone backwards in recent weeks after a pleasing start to the season.  Although both teams are struggling to bring intensity in defence this season, their attack has also been disjointed so a winning score in the 80’s or early 90’s seems about right.

North Melbourne to win.

Adelaide Crows v St Kilda

Crows – $1.25

St Kilda – $4.15

Round 6’s surprise packages the Saints have it all to do against an Adelaide side that has been decimated by injury in recent weeks.  Both sides enter this one on the back of Round 6 wins.  As alluded to St Kilda recorded their biggest come from behind win in the history to beat the Western Bulldogs away from home. The Crows also enjoyed a win, their’s a comprehensive win over the Suns.

History is against St Kilda in this fixture.  They have lost their last four games against Adelaide, meaning it will take some special to overcome then on Saturday.  Perhaps the fact that the Crows are missing Rory Sloane is the slice of luck they need to in.

We doubt it.  The Crows to take this one out.

Hawthorne v Melbourne

Hawthorne – $1.08

Melbourne – $8.50

The Demons are about to see a demon unleashed on them this week.  Melbourne hosts an embarrassed Hawthorne side that suffered a shock loss to the Giants last week.  The result of which will be a revengeful monster that doesn’t bode well for Melbourne’s chances.

The Hawks very rarely suffer two losses in a row and despite still being without suspended duo Luke Hodge and Jordan Lewis should have too much firepower for their opponents.  If they win on Saturday it will be their 12th straight victory over the 15th placed Demons.

Hawthorne to get through comfortably.

Carlton v GWS Giants

Carlton – $2.70

Giants – $1.48

Carlton coach Mick Malthouse is under huge pressure to get a result in his side’s match with the Greater Western Sydney Giants on Saturday.  The three time premiership winning coach has been lambasted in the media throughout the week after Carlton’s loss to Brisbane last week.  Malthouse calls the media comments “unsavoury”, but the media and greater AFL public are likely to determine his employment status over the coming weeks, so a win on Saturday is probably more needed than any other win in his glittering coaching career.

The Blues were so poor last week.  The opposite of the Giants, who enjoyed a ten point win adjacent reigning premiers Hawthorne.  The Giants are in the unfamiliar position of favourites, and we’re a little worried how they’ll respond to that.

Therefore, we’re giving the Blues the win (in a risky tip).

Sydney Swans v Geelong Cats

Swans – $1.27

Cats – $3.90

The Sydney Swans at ANZ Stadium presents a stern test for an improving Geelong side in Saturday nights penultimate game.  The Cats returned to some form by destroying high flying Collingwood with one of the best half of footy we’ve seen this season.

But, the Swans are in some quality nick too. Currently 4th on the championship ladder and having enjoyed a comfortable win in last week’s action against Melbourne, the Swans should be too much for Geelong.

Isaac Heeney’s forced injury layoff is the only change to the Swans side.  In his place Dean Towers in a move that shouldn’t affect the play of the team too much.

Sydney to win.

West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns

Eagles – $1.10

Suns – $7.50

The Suns have never beaten the West Coast Eagles, a statistic that is unlikely to change at Domain Stadium on Saturday.  The Eagles are always a difficult proposition at home, and currently sit second on the AFL ladder despite many pundits assuming they would struggle this year after key retirements in the back field.

However, they have proven themselves to be finals contenders with key wins in four of their last five games.  The Suns best chance of causing an upset is through the middle of the paddock, however that’s hard to fathom given the relative inexperience of their midfielders.  Gold Coast were better than the 31 point losing margin suggested last week but will find their Round 7 opponents too tricky.

West Coast to remain in the competitions top three with an easy win.

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle

Bulldogs – $3.65

Fremantle – $1.28

Fremantle are not only the early leaders of 2015, they’re also the team to beat the entire year after putting together six wins from as many games to start the season.  Getting plenty out of stars Nathan Fyfe, Aaron Sandilands and David Mundy, Fremantle have already established an 8 point lead at the top of the ladder.

While other sides that were tipped for success in 2015 stumble through the opening rounds, the Dockers look untouchable.  That should hold even against a Bulldogs side that are the surprise packages of this year’s action.  It’s somewhat remarkable that an unbeaten side is still only at $1.28 to get the job done – a testament to the Bulldogs play.

The Western Bulldogs have gone 4-2 to start the season, and should have beaten St Kilda last week when they led by as much as 50 points before letting it slip.

While we think this will be close, we can’t see Fremantle losing.  Dockers to get up.

Richmond v Collingwood

Richmond – $2.05

Collingwood – $1.75

A strange game to predict features a Tigers side that were tipped to finish well inside the top 4 this season, but are now languishing in 13th, playing a Collingwood side who were pathetic in last Friday’s loss to Geelong.

Ordinarily we’d give this to Collingwood, however the pressure on both sides could result in some desperation that makes it close and difficult to determine a winner.

Players aside the major talking point of the match will be the tactics and performance of the two coaches.  Damien Hardwick in charge of the Tigers, and Nathan Buckley at the helm of Collingwood are both under pressure (more so Hardwick) and it will be interesting how they ask their chargers to play in this one.

We think Collingwood should be okay.  They’ll win in by 15 points.

Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide

Lions – $4.50

Port – $1.20

Brisbane enjoyed a win last week, their first of the 2015 campaign, but we can’t see them getting any points out of their Sunday showdown against the Power at the Gabba.  The Lions snuck a win over the under pressure Carlton side, mainly thanks to Tom Rockliff and new recruit Dayne Beams.

They’ll need plenty more out of their in form big men if the are to trouble a Power side who currently occupy 10th on the ladder with a 3-3 record.  That’s an okay return from a difficult opending draw, and they showed signs last week against the Eagles that they would compete with the better teams this year.

They were slightly unlucky to lose at home last week, however with Robbie Gray kicking goals for fun.  We think they’ll justify their favourite tags and beat the Lions.

 

Aviva Premiership – Last Fixture Preview

In the final round of fixtures for the regular Premiership season, there’s still much to play for. Most eyes will be focussed on the tussle for the remaining two play-off spots though, with just a point separating the Tigers, Chiefs and Saracens.

Tigers v Saints – 15:30

Saints have top spot already secured, but Leicester Tigers still have a lot of work to do if they want to join them in the play-offs.

A bonus point win is the only way Tigers can guarantee their place, with Exeter Chiefs and Saracens very much hot on their tails with vastly superior score differences. It’s certainly a challenge for the Tigers, who might be hoping the Saints will take their foot of the gas with little to play for.

Best Bet: Northampton Saints +9 Handicap – 7/4 at William Hill

Chiefs v Sharks – 15:30

Exeter Chiefs need to match or better Saracens’ result on Saturday if they are to hold on to their play-off position. Unfortunately, with the Saracens facing a woeful London Welsh side that has picked up just one point this season, it looks like the Chiefs will have to earn a bonus point win over seventh-place Sale Sharks. They may also have to register a huge win too if Saracens let loose on the Welsh, with Chiefs holding a score difference just three better than Saracens, with the pair level on points. However, if the Saracens do better Exeter’s result, the Chiefs will have to then hope they close the one-point deficit on Tigers, who face league leaders, Saints.

Best Bet: Exeter Chiefs -14 Handicap – Evens at SkyBet

Falcons v Harlequins – 15:30

Newcastle are set to ring the changes on Saturday, with neither side having much to play for.

The Falcons are stuck in a disappointing 11th place, while Quins are eighth and would need to make up a huge score difference to climb any higher in the table.

Best Bet: Harlequins to win – 17/10 at bet365

Bath v Gloucester – 15:30

Only pride is at stake in this West Country derby between Bath and Gloucester.

Bath have second-place secured and will have an eye on next week’s play-off, while Gloucester will likely end the season in ninth unless they can close a two-point deficit on the Harlequins above them.

Will Bath secure local bragging rights against the European Challenge Cup winners?

Best Bet: Gloucester +13 Handicap – 4/1 at Ladbrokes

Irish v Wasps – 15:30

A point will be enough to guarantee a top six finish for the Wasps and secure a position in the Champions Cup next season. They might not even need that though, with their nearest competitors, Sale Sharks, requiring a big victory away in Exeter.

Best Bet: London Irish +9 Handicap – 10/11 at William Hill

Welsh v Saracens – 15:30

Saracens are on the hunt for blood against long-since relegated London Welsh, who have picked up just one point all season. The Saracens know that they need to get a better result than Tigers, or outscore the Chiefs and claim into the play-off places. Can Saracens complete a demolition job at the Kassam Stadium to round-off Welsh’s miserable season?

Best Bet: London Welsh +47 Handicap – Evens at bet365

Super Rugby Preview Round 14

Odds, tips and snippets from the latest round of Super Rugby action.  Here’s the weekly Super Rugby Preview Round 14 Edition:

Blues v Bulls 

Blues – $2.15

Bulls – $1.70

The Blues have had plenty of distractions this week.  Most of them revolve around their coach John Kirwan’s future, which apparently won’t be decided until August.  Will he stay?  Will he get Wayne Smith as an assistant?  Those are the questions being asked, notably because the Blues season is already well and truly over.

However, they play pretty decently at home so they could sneak some points from this picture against the susceptible Bulls outfit.  The Bulls have not won outside of South Africa since 2013, but have plenty to play for as they currently top the South African conference with the Stormers.

On this seasons results the Bulls should be too strong, but we’re sensing an upset, even though the Blues got licked by the Rebels last week.

Blues 1-12.

Reds v Rebels

Reds – $2.25

Rebels – $1.62

Game two of the week also features two teams enjoying contrasting seasons.  Former Champions the Reds are done and dusted.  Struggling with injuries and form, the Reds were badly beaten last week and look to be second best in this fixture too.

In contrast, the Rebels are still in the hunt for a playoff spot – just 4 points behind the Brumbies and will undoubtedly bring plenty of confidence to Suncorp Stadium after mauling the Blues last week.

Jake McIntyre has been asked to make his Super Rugby debut at 10 for the Reds, while Karmichael Hunt returns from injury at outside centre.  Big things are expected of McIntyre.  The 21 year old replaces Nick Frisby who is out with concussion in the Reds problem position.  He could thrive without the pressure of a playoff spot beckoning.

We’ll go for an upset here.  Reds 1-12.

Hurricanes v Chiefs

Hurricanes – $1.62

Chiefs – $2.30

The New Zealand conference decider features two of the better teams in 2015’s Super Rugby season.  The always enterprising Hurricanes face the equally ambitious and attacking Chiefs team at home, bidding to win their 11th game of the season.

The Hurricanes have a poor overall record against the Chiefs, having won just twice of their last seven matches against the side from Waikato.  However, the most recent matchup saw the Hurricanes destroy the Chiefs 45-8.

The Canes are bolstered by the return of TJ Perenara and Julian Savea, returning them to full strength.  Conversely, the Cheifs have lost James Lowe and Sonny Bill Williams in what appears to be two massive hits to their chances.

Hurricanes 13+.

Waratahs v Sharks 

Waratahs – $1.30

Sharks – $3.50

The bookies are giving the Sharks little chance of beating the Waratahs at Allianz on Saturday night.  The Sharks have been disappointing all year and particularly poor away from home, something that is frustrating Bismarck du Plessis no end.  Sydney appears an unlikely venue to turn that statistic around however, as the Sharks have won just 2 of 10 encounters in the area.

That pretty much points to a Waratahs win.  A desperately needed one too after they dropped valuable points against the force last week.  The Tahs have not lost two games in a row all season and we don’t believe that will start on Saturday night.  Buoyed by the inclusion of Michael Hooper, who looked set to miss a few weeks after limping off last week, the Waratahs will win 1-12.

Lions v Brumbies

Lions – $2.10

Brumbies – $1.72

In arguably the most difficult of the round’s games to predict, the Lions face the Brumbies at Ellis Park.  The Brumbies top the Australia conference but are currently in the midst of a mini form slump.  Narrow losses to the Waratahs and the Stormers (3 points and 1 point respectively) have left the ACT franchise needing to win in Round 15 to avoid three straight losses that would equal their worst ever losing streak.

Matt Toomua returns for the Brumbies to aid the cause.  His inclusion adds a tremendous amount of sought after experience in the cauldron that is Johannesburg.

The Lions have surprised many in this campaign.  Most recently they surprised the Highlanders with a stirring second half fightback.  They might not have the paddock across the park, but they can grind out wins at home better than most.

We like their chances and will give them (the Lions) the win by 1-12 (because the Brumbies always lose narrowly if they lose).

Cheetahs v Highlanders

Cheetahs – $2.50

Highlanders – $1.53

An important match for the Highlanders at Free State Stadium this one.  The Highlanders have failed to win any of their four games in the republic and need to keep in touch with the New Zealand conference pack that is currently chasing the Hurricanes.

Last week’s win will still be hurting, and the best tonic will be a win against a Cheetahs side featuring a new halves pairing of Tian Meyer and Francois Brummer.  The Highlanders are not without their own changes. They lose breakout star Waisake Naholo to a bruised foot – replaced by little known Ryan Tongia.

We see the Highlanders finally breaking their South African hoodoo and getting a win by 1-12.

Preakness Stakes Preview

American Pharoah bids to follow up his Kentucky Derby victory in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico.

Bob Baffert’s son of Pioneerof The Nile battled to a one-length success at Churchill Downs. He beat Firing Line with stable companion Dortmund two lengths away in third. Both horses take American Pharoah again here.

It is difficult to see what his rivals could do here to reverse the form. Dortmund was soon driven to the lead and was beaten entering the final furlong while Gary Stevens also gave Firing Line a forceful ride. The latter did not surrender with a fight and only went down inside the final 100 yards.

The bookmakers certainly don’t see a change in the outcome on Saturday with American Pharoah priced at 4-6, Firing Line at 4-1 and Dortmund at a top price of 6-1.  With only eight runners, the draw should not come into play and it was worth remembering that the favourite overcame a tough draw to win the Kentucky Derby.

Derby fifth Danzig Moon and the unplaced Mr Z are also in the field but are difficult to fancy and it will be surprising if the big three don’t battle this out. American Pharoah suffered an injury which ruled him out of the Breeders’ Cup last year so has done well to win three quick races this spring. He was not seriously tested to win Grade 2 and Grade 1 events at Oaklawn but was forced to pull out all the stops by Firing Line.

It all looks set up for an exciting re-match. The elusive American Triple Crown is his target this year and it looks as though Firing Line is going to push him all the way. It could even revive memories of Affirmed and his tremendous battles with Alydar back in 1978. The pair finished first and second in all three Triple Crown races.

The race is due off at 11.18 UK Time and can be viewed live on Racing UK.

Best UK odds

American Pharoah 8-11 Paddy Power

Dortmund 6-1 Stan James

Mr Z 50-1 Skybet

Danzig Moon 18-1 Paddy Power

Tale Of Verve 100-1 Bet365

Bodhisattva 66-1 Bet365

Divining Rod 20-1 Stan James

Firing Line 4-1 Stan James