AFL Round 6 Preview

Mothers Day and Footy are the two things to look forward to this weekend.  Let’s only consider the latter in our AFL Round 6 Preview

Collingwood vs Geelong Cats

Collingwood – $1.62

Geelong – $2.35

Round 6 begins with the in-form Pies taking on an improving Geelong outfit at the MCG on Friday night.  Fresh from a huge, Scott Pendlebury inspired win over Carlton last weekend, the Pies are expected to be too strong for the Cats in the round’s opener.  Collingwood look well settled in second place on the ladder and bast probably the most hype Brownlow Medal contender in their midst.

The Cats on the other hand look to be improving, and can rely on their impressive win over Richmond last weekend as inspiration for another upset.  They may still be contenders come September but appear to  lack the overall quality to post tow wins in a row.

Collingwood to take it out.

North Melbourne vs Richmond

North Melbourne – $1.60

Richmond – $2.35

11 plays 12 in a battle of underachieving teams in the rounds second match.  Blundstone Arena will host North Melbourne and Richmond, two teams who entered the season with some expectation but have so far failed to catch fire.  The poor starts make this Round 6 clash somewhat of a must win for both if either are to springboard up the leaderboard.  Titles aren’t won early doors but they’re certainly lost.

The Roos dominated this fixture last time they played, that’s why we’re backing them to get the job done again this week.

North Melbourne to win.

Western Bulldogs vs St Kilda

Bulldogs – $1.42

St Kilda – $2.85

The previously calamitous Western Bulldogs side has shocked the entire AFL community by putting their off season issues behind them and putting together some excellent on-field performances.  The Western Bulldogs find themselves in 3rd on the ladder after fairytale wins over the Crows and Swans.  The win over the Swans in particular was as impressive performance as we’ve seen from anyone over than Fremantle this year.

They’ll be too good for St Kilda who are looking a possibility for back to back wooden spoons after posting just a solitary win from their five games.  Nick Riewoldt and Leigh Montagna return in order to help St Kilda halt the Bulldogs, but we doubt they’ll be able.

Western Bulldogs to win comfortably.

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn

Giants – $3.75

Hawthorne – $1.27

The Giants have come along way in their short AFL history and displayed some impressive form over the first four rounds of this years edition.  However, that run was abruptly halted when they were thrashed by the West Coast Eagles last week.  They mustered just 33 points, and now face the difficult task of tackling the reigning premiers.

Hawthorn haven’t reached the heights of last year’s Grand Final but are still handily placed in 3rd.  Having said that they lose a whole heap of experience this week with both captain Luke Hodge and vice-captain Jordan Lewis copping bans for nasty incidents last week.

They should still get up though.  Hawthorne to win.

Gold Coast Suns vs Adelaide Crows

Suns – $6.25

Crows – $1.12

There are not to many upset opportunities in Round 6.  Famous last words, but there really does not appear to be many viable contenders.  Certainly the Gold Coast Suns games against the Adelaide Crows isn’t one.  The Crows should be far too good for the Suns despite losing their last two after posting wins in their first three matches.

The Suns did enjoy a win last week – an impressive win against the Lions too – but are still missing Gary Ablett Jr and are likely to find the going too tough against Phil Walsh’s side.

After starting their season with three huge victories, the Adelaide Crows have now lost their last two. The Crows will be hoping to revive their early-season form when they descend onto Metricon Stadium to face the Gold Coast Suns, who will be brimming with confidence after notching up their first win for the season last week.

Adelaide to win.

Melbourne vs Sydney Swans

Melbourne – $5.00

Swans – $1.17

The Swans are through the back end of a rough couple of weeks that saw defeats at the hands of the Bulldogs and Fremantle and will now focus their attention on the 13th placed Melbourne side.  Melbourne have failed to record consecutive wins this season and have been given little chance by punters this week against last year’s minor premiers.

Expect Melbourne to play with plenty of energy and aggression as they look to unsettle the Swans and force them into nervy errors.  Bullying has also been the best approach against the Swans and the tactic is Melbourne’s friend on Saturday at the MCG.

Sydney should be able to withstand though.  They’ll take this one out.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 30 points.

Fremantle vs Essendon

Fremantle – $1.20

Essendon – $4.50

Fremantle have looked close to untouchable through five rounds of the competition with some going as far as saying it will take 15 rounds before they lose.  Although they are yet to be challenged this year, that unlikely situation could eventuate if the Bombers don’t stop them this weekend.

The Bombers sit in 9th and have gone from the scrappy to the sublime in their efforts this season.  Highlighting that point was their narrow win over St Kilda last week.  Their Round 5 opponents, are in imperious form, their dismantling of Melbourne last week is sure to send the shivers up their opponents.

Dockers to get home easily.

Carlton vs Brisbane Lions

Carlton – $1.25

Lions – $4.00

In yet another predicted one-sided matchup, Carlton host the Brisbane Lions to kick off Sunday’s AFL action.  The Blues come into this one without form of their side – they lost by 75 points last week.  But fortunately, the Lions are winless and have conceded almost double the amount of points as they have scored.

Carlton have not lost to the Lions in Melbourne since 2008 and we believe that trend will continue and heap the pressure on coach Justin Leppitsch.

Carlton by 20.

Port Adelaide vs West Coast Eagles

Port Adelaide – $1.20

Eagles – $4.50

The round concludes when Port Adelaide host the West Coast Eagles at the Adelaide Oval.  The ladder might suggest this will be a comfortable Eagles win, but their wins have come against weak opposition (including the Suns last week).  

They have a reputation as fine weather / weak opposition bullies, whereas Port Adelaide will provide a much sterner challenge.  Port Adelaide have won three in a row, and they are guaranteed to finish higher than their current ranking of 10th.

If there is to be an upset this round it could be courtesy of the Eagles, but we don’t think so.  We believe that the home advantage will be telling and pick the Port Adelaide by 20 points.

This Weeks Multi 

This week’s head to head multi pays a conservative $11.03.

Odds taken from William Hill Australia.

 

Cricket: England v Ireland Preview – One Off ODI

England’s young brigade get the opportunity to atone for their incompetent seniors when the national cricket team meet Ireland at Malahide tomorrow.  While the heavily criticised stars who failed to beat West Indies in the recently concluded test series travel home, a wildly different looking side get the chance to dampen the choruses for coach Peter Moores’ head and press their own claims.

Ireland on the other hand will be ecstatic at the chance to worsen England’s already dark mood.  They’ll look to their 2011 World Cup upset over England as motivation for a shock win.

The Last Time These Two Met

Associate nations and test playing nations meet rarely.  The last time these two sides met was in 2013 where England won by 6 wickets.  The two matches prior to that were much closer however.  A narrow England win in August 2011 was preceded by the famous Ireland win in the 2011 Cricket World Cup.

Form against one another and generally is well out the window in predicting the outcome of this one.  The plethora of red ball cricket means both teams will be underdone, and the difficulty in predicting how the English debutants get on is obvious.

The Teams

England (likely): 1 Alex Hales, 2 Jason Roy, 3 James Vince, 4 James Taylor (capt), 5 Sam Billings, 6 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 7 David Willey, 8 Adil Rashid, 9 Tim Bresnan, 10 Steven Finn, 11 Mark Wood.

James Taylor leads England for the first time and takes charge of a team with too many (5) debutants to feature here.  Zafar Ansari and Lewis Gregory are the other options in the 13.

Ireland (likely): 1 William Porterfield (capt), 2 Paul Stirling, 3 Ed Joyce, 4 Niall O’Brien, 5 Andy Balbirnie, 6 Gary Wilson (wk), 7 Kevin O’Brien, 8 John Mooney, 9 George Dockrell, 10 Alex Cusack, 11 Craig Young/Stuart Thompson

Ireland have lost Tim Murtagh from their World Cup XI in one of the few changes expected from the tournament earlier in the year.

The Key Players

Adil Rashid – He should’ve played in the final test in the West Indies.  He is far more of a frontline spinner than Moeen Ali is and thoroughly deserves his chance to replace James Tredwell as England’s premiere limited overs and test spinner.  Hopefully the lack of cricket he’s played over the past few months isn’t reflected in his bowing.

William P0rterfield – The Irish captain was their best performing batsman at the World Cup.  In 6 matches he scored 275 runs at an average of 45.83 with a hundred and a fifty.  He’s also getting some hand 30/40 starts in his first class matches for Warwickshire in the always difficult early season conditions.

The Match Odds*

England – $1.35

Ireland – $3.21

*Courtesy of Sportsbet Australia.

The Prediction

England’s young troops should have too much talent for Ireland’s ageing troops.  We’re giving this one to England by 4 wickets or 50 runs.

The Best Bets

Sam Billings is a talented keeper batsman but makes this team as a specialist batsman.  He’s listed to come in at 5 which could be perfect if their’s early movement around.  Get on him to top score at $9.50.

For gimmicks sake try the Direction of First Boundary bet.  The leg side is paying a decent $2.00.  Surely one of the game’s openers has a pull shot or leg glance in them.

Super Rugby Round 13 Preview

Another round of Super Rugby is upon us, albeit a shortened week with three teams enjoying a bye.  Check out all the team changes and predictions in this week’s Super Rugby Round 13 Preview below:

Crusaders v Reds

Crusaders – $1.07

Reds – $9.25

Richie McCaw’s career mind be grinding to an early concussion conscious halt, but the Crusaders season is just starting to heat up.  Despite losing to the Hurricanes last week, the Crusaders returned to some decent form and should make a late run for a playoffs spot over the closing weeks, starting with a comfortable victory over the Reds on Friday.

The below par Reds are still without Cooper, Hunt and Fainga’a who are all still out injured.  Therefore the bookies have given them no chance at all.  In fact they’re the least favoured team of the round even with Jake Schatz returning.

The match is probably the last time the Canterbury faithful will see heroes Dan Carter and McCaw at home.

Crusaders by 13+.

Rebels v Blues

Rebels – $1.52

Blues – $2.60

The Blues have revamped the side that easily beat the Force last week for this week’s head to head with the Melbourne Rebels in Friday’s latter game.  Steven Luatua has been instilled as captain and Ihaia West returns to the pivotal number 10 position as Dan Bowden overcomes a groin injury.   Charles Piutau, Luke Braid and Jerome Kaino are also out, but the Blues get a boost in the strange form of concluded legal proceedings as George Moala avoided an assault conviction and can now put the three year distraction behind him.

The Rebels are favourites thanks to a surprise win against the Chiefs last week and their five win and five loss records in this year’s competition.  Mike Harris is a key addition this week and will resume the goal kicking from Debreczeni.

Blues by 1-12.  (But great money on the Blues 13+ if you’re brave – $7.25)

Hurricanes v Sharks

Hurricanes – $1.24

Sharks – $4.20

The table topping Hurricanes franchise have rewarded some of their stars with a week off when they take on the Sharks at home on Saturday night.  Wing Julian Savea and halfback TJ Perenara will sit this one out, replaced by Chris Smylie and Matt Procter.  Beauden Barrett is also injured, meaning James Marshall comes into the run on side.  Victor Vito and Blade Thomson also start ahead of regulars Brad Shields and Callum Gibbins.

The Sharks get a boost too, from international quality utility back Frans Steyn and other key contributors Jannie du Plessis and Renaldo Bothma.

Interestingly, the game will also feature royalty in the crowd.  Literally, royalty, with Prince Harry watching from the stands.

Hurricanes 13+.

Force v Waratahs

Force – $3.75

Waratahs – $1.29

The Waratahs are odds on favourites to make it four wins on the bounce when they travel to Perth to take on the competitions worst side.  The Waratahs are expected to be much too strong for a side who won a solitary match in 2015.

The Waratahs have made a switch out wide with Taqele Naiyaravoro coming in to replace Peter Betham and another in the front row that sees Tolu Latu replacing the concussed Tatafu Polota-Nau.

Notwithstanding a couple of point scoring splurges, the Force have struggled to match the name of their home ground (‘Force Field’) and have leaked far too many tries to come close to a second win.

Lock Adam Coleman is the only major change to the side that suffered a heavy defeat to the Blues last week.

Waratahs 13+.

Lions v Highlanders

Lions – $1.88

Highlanders – $1.96

The entertaining Highlanders team face their most difficult portion of their season as they embark on a couple of tricky South African and Australian assignments in the race home.  First up is the a Lions team who will be smarting from their first loss in six games last week to the Bulls.  They have reacted by making a handful of changes to their team including Schalk van der Merwe starting at loosehead and Robbie Coetzee, included at hooker.

In the backline, Ross Cronje will start at scrumhalf and will play alongside Marnitz Boshoff.

The Highlanders attracted more support as the week has progressed and it’s close to even-stevens between the two teams in the bookies eyes.  We like the Highlanders here, building on their impressive effort against the Sharks last week.

Highlanders 1-12.

Stormers v Brumbies

Stormers – $1.57

Brumbies – $2.45

The Brumbies look to have their work cut out for them at Newlands early Sunday morning.  The Cape Town venue is one of the competitions toughest to travel to and has become a fortress this season.  Although the Brumbies get back Rory Arnold and Nic White, we can’t see them having the firepower to get past a strong Stormers side that has been strengthened even further with the return of Eben Etzebeth – who sat out last week under instruction by the SARU.

Stormers 13+.

This Weeks Multi

Head to Head pays $12.54

Margin pays $234.06

Odds taken from Luxbet.

Chester Preview – Friday 8th May

Betcirca followers were in profit for the second consecutive day at Chester with wins for Collaboration (9-4), Hans Holbein (5-2) and Navigate (10-1).

Aidan O’Brien has mopped up the first two classic trials of the week in the Cheshire Oaks and Chester Vase. He now sets his sights on the Dee Stakes on Friday where he is represented by Smuggler’s Cove. He has much the best two-year-old form having finished third to Belardo in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes.

He had previously won at Dundalk by seven lengths to earn his trip to Newmarket. He is by Fastnet Rock out of a Sadler’s Wells mare and has an extra three furlongs to travel here. The race has been hit by non-runners due to the give in the ground and it could develop into a very tactical affair. Ryan Moore rides Smuggler’s Cove with main market rival Disegno to be partnered by Ted Durcan.

Sir Michael Stoute’s colt also had decent form as a juvenile and was a fair third to Golden Horn first time out this season. He looked very short of pace that day and that could count against him on this tight track.

The feature race of the day is the Group 3 Ormonde Stakes at 3.10 and conditions have come right for Marco Botti’s Tac de Boistron. The grey has won nine races in his career, all on soft or heavy ground. He has also won after a lengthy lay-off in the past so fitness is unlikely to be an issue. He has a very high cruising speed and is preferred to the consistent Windshear.

The opening seven-furlong handicap looks wide open. One Word More won well for Tim Easterby last time but I’m put off by his draw in stall ten. He usually comes from off the pace and a slow start here would virtually put him out of it.

Alejandro just gets my vote, although the concern with him is the ground. He has not won on soft ground, although he has run some decent races on it. He ran well for a long way at Haydock first time out when fourth to Emell. The winner was very unlucky not to follow up under a penalty next time so Alejandro clearly met a horse in peak form that day.

Alejandro 2.10 @8-1 Betfair

Smuggler’s Cove 2.40 @6-4 Coral

Tac de Boistron 3.10 @2-1 Bet365

Premier League Darts: Week 14 – Newcastle Preview

It’s the penultimate week of the Premier League Darts, before the play-off battle gets underway. And it couldn’t be much more exciting, with a resurgent Barney shooting up the table and Phil Taylor desperate to get back into the play-off spots.

After avoiding relegation by the skin of his teeth in week nine, Raymond van Barneveld has won each of his last five to get up to a remarkable third-place. Baring in mind that he has faced the five highest ranked opponents in each of those fixtures only adds to the grandness of the feat he has achieved.

This week’s action comes from the Newcastle Metro Arena, and the four play-off positions could be sealed up if results go a certain way – making this the most crucial round of fixtures to date.

Last week I correctly predicted four of the five results, which earned a healthy Heinz win. Let’s see if we can go one better this week.

Dave Chisnall v Stephen Bunting

A draw with James Wade last week ended Bunting’s hopes of reaching the play-offs in his debut Premier League season, but it has nevertheless been a positive one for the St Helens’ player.

Second-place Chisnall was beaten by Bunting in week six of the competition, and although revenge would be sweet for Chizzy, he is already assured of his place in the play-offs for the first time after beating Adrian Lewis last week.

Verdict: Draw – 7/2 at bet365

Adrian Lewis v Michael van Gerwen

Adrian Lewis needs nothing less than a victory against MVG, while hoping Gary Anderson is beaten by Phil Taylor to stand any chance of reaching the play-offs. Even then, he’d still need to beat Anderson in the final fixture next week, and hope Taylor loses to James Wade. Basically, Adrian Lewis is all-but out of play-off contention.

Michael van Gerwen got back to winning ways last week by beating Phil Taylor 7-4, and a victory here would see him guarantee top spot with a week to spare.

Verdict: Michael van Gerwen to win – 8/13 at Paddy Power

James Wade v Raymond van Barneveld

Barney has risen like the phoenix from the ashes since his play-off scare, and will be very confident of beating eighth-place James Wade who is without a win in six. A win for the Dutchman would assure him of a play-off place.

Verdict: Raymond van Barneveld to win – 11/8 at Stan James

Phil Taylor v Gary Anderson

In the match of the night, Phil Taylor has to beat Gary Anderson if he is to have any chance of making the play-offs this year.

The Power is the only player to have played in all 11 editions of Premier League Darts, and has reached the play-offs every single year. What’s more, Taylor won the league stages of the first eight editions, and has finished in third place for the past two years behind Michael van Gerwen and Barney respectively. While the Premier League Darts competition is without doubt becoming more competitive year-by-year, Taylor failing to even reach the play-offs would be a goliath shock for the sport.

Can Taylor beat Anderson to open the play-off battle right up, or will Anderson secure his own play-off spot?

Verdict: Phil Taylor to win – 11/8 at BetVictor

Chester Preview – Thursday 7th May

Rah Rah (2-1) and Not Never (11-1) gave us a profit on the opening day of the Chester May meeting. Quick Jack was just run out of it in the Chester Cup by Trip To Paris, ironically the horse that I had deserted due to the rain softened ground.

Thursday’s card looks equally competitive and the action begins at 2.10 with a mile and a quarter handicap. Andrew Balding’s Collaboration did us a favour when winning the City & Suburban Handicap at Epsom last time and is difficult to oppose, despite a hefty rise in the weights. He was always travelling well that day and was going further clear at the finish.

The Huxley Stakes at 2.40 looks wide open with some progressive horses entered. Cannock Chase may just have needed his first run of the season at Sandown in the Gordon Richards Stakes. Relatively few of Sir Michael Stoute’s horses have proved fit enough to win first time out. He is just preferred to Air Pilot who went through the handicap last season.

Hans Holbein can add another string to the bow of Aidan O’Brien in the Chester Vase as he plans his raiding party for the Epsom Derby next month. He has already shown that stamina is his strength and the opposition here is pretty weak for a Group 3.

Goring may be worth supporting in the seven furlong handicap after winning cosily last time out. He had previously been disqualified after a banned substance was found in his sample. Stoute’s Pleiades was beaten a long way last time and 6-1 or thereabouts looks good value for Eve Johnson Houghton’s runner.

Raj To Riches has just been caught in his first two races and should be suited by this faster track. He can use his early speed to put his rivals under pressure and get off the mark at the third time of asking. The six-furlong handicap which follows looks particularly tricky and I’m going to give another chance to Navigate. Martyn Meade’s colt showed plenty of early speed at Newmarket last time and this looks an easier contest.

The card closes with another very competitive race and the vote just goes to Empress Ali. She has run three times previously at the Roodeye, returning the form figures 2, 2, 1. Tom Tate may well have targeted this meeting for her seasonal reappearance and she is well drawn in stall 4.

Collaboration 2.10 @9-4 Bet365

Cannock Chase 2.40 @15-8 William Hill

Hans Holbein 3.10 @5-2 Racebets

Goring 3.45 @6-1 Bet365

Raj To Riches 4.20 @5-2 Bet365

Navigate 4.55 @9-1 William Hill

Empress Ali 5.25 @7-1 William Hill