Rugby League: NRL Round 9 Preview

After a week off for all but representative players the NRL returns with a series of intriguing matchups.

Injuries and suspension have wrecked havoc on a number of teams, but there are still clear favourites in all games.  We’re picking a number of upsets in our NRL Round 9 Preview.

Brisbane Broncos v Penrith Panthers

Broncos – $1.40

Panthers – $3.00

The 4-4 Panthers team could welcome back several important faces when they take on the Broncos at Suncorp in Friday nights Round 9 opener.  Despite a horrible record at Suncorp and being without an away win in 2015, Jamie Soward, Dean Whare, James Segeyaro and Elijah Taylor are all racing the clock to be fit in time to turn that around this weekend (although none of the above have been named in the 17).

Alex Glenn and Jordan Kahu return for the well settled Broncos outfit.  Glenn’s return in particular offsets the week off through suspension earned by Sam Thaiday during test duties.

Broncos by 1-12.

Sydney Roosters v Wests Tigers

Roosters – $1.38

Tigers – $3.10

Origin backrower Aidan Guerra returns to boost hist struggling Roosters team.  The Sydneysiders were pre-completion favourites and have only managed three wins in 2015 and none in Guerra’s absence.  Guar’s return pushes Dylan Napa to the bench, while Smith Aubusson’s inclusion also adds utility value.  The impressive Sio Siua Taukeiaho heads to the bench in a swap with Issac Liu.

Jason Taylor’s Tigers team have surprised many this season, but they’re still lacking that top 6 consistency. Keith Galloway will help with that.  The big man returns from his shoulder injury in place of centre Tim Simona.  His inclusion however is unlikely to help the Tigers get up over a side they traditionally play awfully poor against.  We’ll go Roosters, unless Marty Taupau can frighten the Roosters with some more throat slitting gestures.

Roosters 1-12.

Canberra Raiders v Gold Coast Titans

Raiders – $1.66

Titans – $2.25

Two teams with identical 2015 records look set to play out an exciting contest at GIO Stadium on Saturday.  Both sides favour expansive attacking footy and both are surprising in this years competition.

The Titans have won three in a row, including an impressive win at the always tricky Mt Smart Stadium in NZ.  They also get the bonus of Dave Taylor and Daniel Mortimer to help offset the huge 8 week ban ban handed out to serial offender Greg Bird.

After beating South Sydney before rep round, the Raiders will be full of confidence and will gain look to young five eighth Blake Austin to steer them around.  The origin outsider scored a hat-trick for City last week to push his case, and will be hoping to replicate that form again this weekend.  We would pick him for NSW instead of Maloney / Hopkinson despite his showing in this one.

Raiders 1-12.

Cronulla Sharks v New Zealand Warriors

Sharks – $1.71

Warriors – $2.15

The Warriors are desperate for a win after a patchy start to the season.  Languishing in 13th on an admittedly convoluted ladder, the Warriors will be hoping to gain inspiration from Sunday’s Kiwi’s win over the Kangaroos.  Manu Vatuvei, Shaun Johnson and Ben Matulino all played key roles for the Kiwis and will need to transfer that form to their club if the Warriors can sneak an away win over the similarly placed Sharks.

Ben Barba gets a go at fullback for the Sharks pushing Valentine Holmes to the wing.  Andrew Fifita also appears back to his best after an awesome effort for City against Country during rep weekend.

I like the money on the Warriors.  Warriors 1-12.

North Queensland Cowboys v Canterbury Bulldogs

Cowboys – $1.39

Bulldogs – $3.00

Ordinarily I would be eyeing up this one as an upset.  The Bulldogs very rarely concede a raft of points.  However on this occasion and considering their poor performance against the Tigers in Round 8, and the five-in-a-row form of their opponents, we’ll back the Cowboys.

The Bulldogs, who are still without captain James Graham, will rely heavily on Trent Hodkinson to prove his origin worth and turn in a position clinching performance.  He’ll be assisted by the return of Josh Morris and David Klemmer, but his halves partner Josh Reynolds is again suspended.

The Cowboys have lost ToLo for a sizeable chunk of time, but shouldn’t feel the impact too severely with Matt Scott and James Tamou around.  Scott especially probably has some critics to crush after a weak effort in the Kangaroos jumper.  The Cowboys need wins before Thurston leaves for origin duty so we expect them to get it done.

Cowboys 1-12.

Manly Sea Eagles v Newcastle Knights

Sea Eagles – $1.67

Knights – $2.20

Two struggling sides could play out a dud at Brookvale to kick off Sunday’s footy action.  The two sides have just one win between them in the past month – an unlikely win to Manly over Melbourne last week.

Geoff Toovey continues to lose players quicker than a Cameroon football team at the Olympics.  Jamie Buhrer is the latest loss – he’s gone for the season, while Kieran Foran is out for a few more weeks even after playing in the rep round.

Rick Stone has been reluctant to punish his players and has largely stuck to the side that has lost four in a row.  Beau Scott returns and Chris Houston drops to the bench in the only change from Round 8.

Knights 1-12.

Parramatta Eels v Melbourne Storm

Eels – $2.15

Storm – $1.70

The most inconsistent side in the competition – the Eels – face a Mothers Day showdown against the ever consistent Melbourne Storm side who welcome back Billy Salter.  The Eels have Semi Radradra back at their disposal to nullify Slater’s threat, but the best fullback in the game should deliver a win for his team who need all the points they can get before Origin.

Ryan Morgan and Isaac De Gois also come into the Eels 17, preferred ahead of Pauli Pauli and John Folau.

For the Storm, they have Tom Learoyd-Lahrs and Dayne Weston back in the mix.

Storm by 13+.

South Sydney Rabbitohs v St George-Illawarra Dragons

Rabbitohs – $1.58

Dragons – $2.40

After being written off after two weeks the Dragons have miraculously won six in a row and will seek a seventh straight against the Rabbitohs on Monday night.  In contrasting fortune the Rabbits have lost three in a row – an unthinkable situation after their early season form.

Josh Dugan is out after injuring his knee playing on the wing for the Kangaroos.  While his test form was mediocre, his club form was excellent and he’s a big loss.  However Tyson Frizell returns from suspension to make a case for origin selection.  Incredibly, Benji Marshall is the co-leader of the Dally M Medal race.

The Bunnies have made a raft of changes after losing Glenn Stewart for three months.  Tom Burgess and Chris Grevsmuhl move around but the retuning John Sutton is the key addition.

Dragons 1-12.

This Weeks Multi

Head to Head pays $73.21

Margin pays $4334.77

Odds taken from Tom Waterhouse.

PGA Tour: The Players Championship Preview

Golf’s unofficial fifth major always provides plenty of entertainment. Admittedly most of it centres around the engrossing 17th island green, but this years event features a stellar field, the McIlroy-Spieth duel that will define golf for the next 20 years, and also the opinion splitting Tiger Woods.

The Course

TPC Sawgrass.  That’s all.  One of the world’s most famous got courses, featuring arguably the world’s most famous hole.  Putting the course’s shortest hole aside (the incredibly challenging and unmissable 17th), Sawgrass is a 7,215 yard, par 72, Pete Dye creation.  The course features one of the most challenging finishes in golf, and also features the quirky trait of having no two consecutive holes play in the same direction.  The real hero though, is the 17th, a green surrounded by water and only a small path at the back.

The Sound Bites

“So 17 doesn’t see eye to eye with me. I think I’ve played it well over par. The first couple years when you’re playing here, you get juiced up, you get pumped up, so the ball goes a little farther. I’ve hit sand wedge over the green” – Bubba Watson describing the thrill of playing 17 at Sawgrass.

“It’s very nerve-wracking. That’s probably not a very exciting answer but it is nerve-wracking because one of the things you sense there is you sense how much the crowd really wants you to mess up. The crowd wants you, wants you, to hit it in the water” – Stewart Cink when answering the same question.

The Defending Champion

Martin Kaymer went coast to coast last year in a dominant display that was only ever under threat during a nervy final four hole stretch.  A brief rain delay when Kaymer was up by three unsettled the Germans rhythm and he made a horrible double on 15 to give Jim Furyk a sniff.  In the end, a clutch 30 footer for par on 17 and a safe par on 18 gave him a one stroke win – a first in 28 months.  Wonderkid Jordan Speith lurked for much of the tournament as did previous champion Sergio Garcia before finished 3rd and 4th behind Furyk.

The Contenders*

Rory McIlroy – A win last week at the Matchplay would have added to McIlroy’s already extreme confidence.  Scrambled brilliantly last week and has finished inside the top 8 in his last two trips to Sawgrass – $8.00

Jordan Spieth – Although he was eliminated at the Match Play he still reeled off the most number of birdies before the knockout rounds.  He was also without a bogey here in the first three rounds last year – $8.50

Henrik Stenson – Has a game well suited for the Sawgrass design  Hit’s it straight and ranks first in stores gained putting – $19.00

Justin Rose – In form after a win at the Zurich Classic and one of the most risk averse players on tour.  That bodes well for such a tricky layout – the player who makes the fewest mistakes is often the player hoisting the trophy at the end of the week (e.g. Bubba will never win this event).  Seriously consider – $21.00

Sergio Garcia – Has an incredible record at this course – one of the few players who consistently puts himself in contention at Stadium – $29.00

Lee Westwood – Could just be the best money in the field.  Three top 10’s in his last 4 starts at Sawgrass and coming off a solid week in San Fran where he defeated FedEx Cup leader Jordan Spieth – $36.00

*Players Championship odds available at Sportsbet.

The Winner

Hard to go past the best player in the world.  We’ll have McIlroy to go back to back.

Super Rugby Round 12 Results

The Super Rugby season just got a whole lot more exciting with arguably the most dynamic round of the competition – full of entertaining rugby and close finishes.  Worryingly, for New Zealand fans, the round also featured injuries to several high profile players including Charles Piutau, Jerome Kaino and Beauden Barrett.  They join an already full list of injured World Cup contenders that feature names such as McCaw, Dagg and Cruden.

Injuries aside, here’s our take on the Super Rugby Round 12 Results:

Highlanders (48) v Sharks (15)

The Highlanders turned in the most comprehensive performance of the round with a dazzling display of skill and audacity.  The often overlooked Otago franchise shocked a timid Sharks outfit with an array of speculative offloads, ridiculous chip and chases and fleet feet, and ran in seven tires to their opponents two.  Lima Sopoaga showed just why he’s being considered an All Black bolter to replace Aaron Cruden with a silky performance at the focal point of the Highlanders attack.

The win moves the Highlanders in to 5th on the Super Rugby ladder.  Their ability to keep in touch with the leaders will be determined on their South African excursion which begins this week with a trip to the Lions den.

Highlanders: Tries – G.Evans, W.Naholo, P. Osborne, M.Reddish, A.Smith, B. Edmonds, E.Dixon, Pen – L.Sopoaga, Con – L.Sopoaga 5

Sharks: Tries – T.Mtawarira, B.du Plessis, Pen – F.Zeilinga, Con – F.Zeilinga

Brumbies (10) v Waratahs (13)

The Waratahs wrapped up consecutive victory number three with a gritty come from behind win over the Brumbies in Canberra on Friday night.  The win means the Waratahs are currently one of only two sides who have enjoyed multiple wins on the bounce (the other being the Hurricanes).

The match didn’t quite live up to the hype of the Dunedin blockbuster played earlier the same night, but did feature several intriguing matchup and resolute defence all round.  In particular, the battle between Michael Hooper and David Pocock set tongues wagging.  As was the first five eighth battle featuring Bernard Foley and Christian Leali’ifano.

Foley’s late penalty was enough to seal the win, but the real hero of the win was the desperate defence displayed through the majority of a pressure filled second half.  The Waratahs have now closed the gap at the top of the Australian conference to just a solitary point, but also remain in the hunt for a wildcard playoff spot – currently sitting in 6th overall.

Brumbies: Tries – J.Tomane, Pen – C.Lealiifano, Con – C.Lealiifano

Waratahs: Tries – A.Ashley-Cooper, Pen – K.Beale, B.Foley, Con – B.Foley

Blues (41) v Western Force (24)

The Blues doubled their win tally for the season with a costly victory in Auckland.  The Blues turned in their best effort of the season on a cool Auckland night that also turned cruel as they lost both Kaino and Piutau for the season. In a match that mimicked the Force’s effort against the Chiefs earlier in the season, the Force gave up too many points early before trying frantically to make it up in the last quarter before eventually finding it all too much.

The Force scored four of the last five tries, but the damage had already been done at 31-0 to the Blues in the first half.  Plenty of Blues faces managed to get themselves on the scoreline, but none were worthy of headlines considering they were up gains the Force’s touch rugby defence.  Much like the Blues, the Force will be hoping they can double their win tally next week.

Blues: Tries – M.Nanai 2, S.Luatua, A.Ioane, I.West, Pen – D.Bowden, I West, Con – D.Bowden 2, L.Visinia, I.West 2

Western Force: Tries – P.Cowan, M.Hodgson, R.Louwrens, B.McCalman, Con – L.Burton

Hurricanes (29) v Crusaders (23)

The game of the round culminated in a narrow home win for the runaway competition leaders.  Wellington’s Hurricanes ran in a bonus point worthy four tries in a topsy turvy ma of rugby that also saw All Black Colin Slade turn in a scintillating first half effort.

The pivot set Dan Carter up for try number one and followed it with one of his own while leading his team to an early lead before the class of the Hurricanes proved too much.  Tries to Reggie Goodes and Blade Thomson sealing it.

The victory came at a cost however.  Star playmaker Beauden Barrett out for four weeks after being sandwiched in a nasty tackle.  The Crusaders chances of making the playoffs appear to be over.  They find themselves back in 9th with only a few rounds remaining.

Hurricanes: Tries – B.Barrett, B.Shields, R.Goodes, B.Thomson, Pen – B.Barrett, Con – B.Barrett 3

Crusaders: Tries – D.Carter, C.Slade, Pen – C.Slade 3, Con – C.Slade 2

Rebels (16) v Chiefs (15)

A brilliant first half was the foundation for the Melbourne Rebels upset win over the more fancied Chiefs side at AAMI park.  The Rebels led 16-3 at the break courtesy of Scott Higginbotham and Nic Stirzaker tries and withstood a late Chiefs comeback (including when fly-half Damian McKenzie had the opportunity to take the lead when attempting the conversion of Michael Leitch’s try).  As they so often do, the Rebels squeezed in another season upset and may now be asking to be taken seriously as finals contenders.  They have a gentle run in with games against the Blues and Reds and could surprise if they can muster some bonus points.

The Chiefs are still comfortably inside the top 6 but will need to find a higher gear to forget this performance.

Rebels: Tries – S.Higginbotham, N.Stirzaker, Pen – J. Debreczeni 2

Chiefs: Tries – C.Ngatai, M.Leitch, Pen – A.Horrell, Con – D.McKenzie

Cheetahs (25) v Stormers (17)

The Cheetahs victory over the Stormers at Bloemfontein was also considered an upset.  The Stormers blew countless kicking opportunities – it didn’t help that the ever-reliable D.Catrakilis was off injured – before finally succumbing to a nail in the coffin late Clayton Blommetjies try.

The Cheetahs were terrific in establishing an 18-3 lead, helped by an uncharacteristically slow start from the former competition playoff shoo-ins.  The lead didn’t stand but the Free State side did enough to take the competition points.

The loss puts the Stormers back to 7th and outside a playoff spot.  They have plenty of work to do before meeting the Brumbies this week.

Cheetahs: Tries – M.Van der Spuy, R.Benjamin, C.Blommetjies, Pen – J.Pietersen 2, Con – J.Pietersen 2

Stormers: Tries – D. Leyds, D.Vermeulen , Pen – D.Catrakilis, Con – D.Catrakilis, K.Coleman

Bulls (35) v Lions (33) 

A compelling match played at Loftus Versfeld saw the Bulls take the spoils over shock playoff possibles, the Lions.  An early double to Piet van Zyl appeared to be enough to send the Bulls towards a convincing win, before Elton Jantjies’ boot brought the Lions right back into the game.

Any nerves however were dispelled when the Bulls finished the stronger of the teams.  Experienced heads Pierre Spies and Handre Pollard steering them to second on the Super Rugby ladder and four points clear in the race for South African conference honours.  The Lions are still within striking distance of 6th.  They find themselves just 4 points shy of the Waratahs (and play all of their remaining games in South Africa).

Bulls: Tries – P.van Zyl 2, JJ Engelbrecht, Pierre Spies, Pen – H.Pollard 3, Con – H.Pollard 3

Lions: Tries – F.de Klerk, J.Van Rooyen, J. Kriel, Pen – E.Jantjies 4, Con – E.Jantjies 3

Champions League – Barcelona v Bayern Munich Preview

The second Champions League semi-final gets under way at the Nou Camp on Wednesday night when Barcelona face Bayern Munich in the first leg.

Barcelona were knocked out by Atletico Madrid at the semi-final stage last year but arrive here in peak form with all three strikers performing well. They were priced at 6-1 at the start of this year’s tournament but have been steadily cut to clear favourite at 7-4 ahead of both Bayern and reigning champions Real Madrid.

The reason is their dominant displays against Manchester City and PSG where they looked relatively untroubled. Luis Suarez took a long time to settle into the side but he is now playing well alongside Lionel Messi and Neymar.  With an attack that sounds like someone’s “dream team”, it is no wonder that they are favourites to win the Champions League for a fourth time in ten years.

This particular tie has the added interest of Pep Guardiola returning to his former club, this time in charge of Bayern. Having led Barcelona to 14 trophies, he is better placed than most to discover a way of beating them. The big problem for Guardiola is his massive injury list which includes several key players. The absence of Arjen Robben has been particularly keenly felt in recent matches while Franck Ribery, Holger Badstuber, David Alaba and Sebastian Rode are all absent.

Robert Lewandowski scored twice in the remarkable 6-1 second leg win over Porto but he may be forced to play in a mask on Wednesday after picking up a facial injury.  Veteran striker Claudio Pizarro was called upon in the weekend defeat at Leverkusen and Bayern will be desperate to escape with a good result here.

Neymar scored in both legs against PSG and has now scored in six of his last seven matches. The Brazilian is clearly in no mood to be overshadowed by Messi or Suarez and could be worth a bet to open the scoring here. Bayern Munich conceded three times at Porto and there must be a real danger that they could be out of this tie before the return leg. Barcelona have won their last eight Champions League appearances and have averaged over two goals per game during that spell.

Barcelona to win @8-11 Ladbrokes

Neymar to score first @5-1 Paddy Power

Neymar to score and Barcelona to win @5-2 Paddy Power

Chester Preview – Wednesday 6th May

Chester races gets under way on Wednesday with a seven-race card starting at 2.10 with the Lily Agnes Stakes. This race usually sets the tone for the rest of the week with the winner invariably coming from a low draw and I fancy Mark Johnston’s Rah Rah to do exactly that.

She is a speedy daughter of Lonhro and I liked the way she strode clear of Anwar at Kempton on her debut. Silver Wings has the inside berth and is likely to make a race of it while Astley Hall did everything wrong on his debut but still managed to win.

The going has eased with the midweek rain and that could benefit Michael Bell’s filly Banzari in the Cheshire Oaks. She was pulled out of the Pretty Polly Stakes on Sunday due to the fast ground and the move could pay off here. I was impressed with Victoria Pollard’s debut win at Newbury for Andrew Balding but they finished in a bit of a heap so she still has something to prove.

We have previewed the Chester Cup separately and expect a big run from Quick Jack under Richard Hughes. The rain has arrived in time so my biggest concern is whether Hughes will be able to navigate his way through this big field. The horse has run well in a County Hurdle and a Cesarewitch so is battle-hardened and just needs a bit of luck in running.

B Fifty Two will be a popular fancy to make all under Frankie Dettori in the sprint at 3.45. I just felt that he didn’t quite do enough last time out to suggest that he was at his peak and prefer the claims of Blithe Spirit. She is a course winner and ran a fine race against Spinatrix at Nottingham.

Sir Isaac Newton is difficult to oppose in the maiden at 4.20 having been edged out by Derby hope Zawraq on his debut. He is still entered in the Derby and a host of other top races so will need to win this if he is in that class.

Robert Cowell has his usual impressive team of sprinters and he saddles Duke Of Firenze and Normal Equilibrium on the 4.55. The former won the Epsom Dash when trained by Sir Michael Stoute but has been largely frustrating since and I’m siding with the proven recent form of Normal Equilibrium. He’s won around here before and has drawn stall one.

The final race of the card is a fascinating mile and a half handicap for three-year-olds. These races are all about potential at this stage of the season and Not Never has bags of that. He battled on gamely to win his maiden for Hugo Palmer and the stable are in excellent form at present.

Rah Rah 2.10 @4.50 Betfair

Banzari 2.40 @9-1 Boylesports

Quick Jack 3.10 @6-1 Stan James

Blithe Spirit 3.45 @5-1 Paddy Power

Sir Isaac Newton 4.20 @2-5 Betfair

Normal Equilibrium 4.55 @11-4 Betfair

Not Never 5.25 @7-1 Bet365

Chester Cup Preview

The Chester May meeting will always be one of my favourite festivals of the flat racing season. The tight track always provides thrilling racing along with more than its fair share of hard luck stories. This was the venue for Shergar’s stunning victory which set him on course for the Epsom Derby and his place in history. We will be previewing each day’s racing in detail as the classic trials unfold but the feature race of the week is still the Chester Cup.

A maximum of seventeen runners will embark on the two and a quarter mile trip with the usual mixture of seasoned campaigners and up-and-coming stayers. Last year’s finish was dominated by Dr Marwan Koukash with his horse’s finishing first and second. Jamie Spencer was guilty of playing his hand too soon on Angel Gabrial and was cut down close home by Ryan Moore on Suegioo.

Consolation came in the Northumberland Plate for the runner-up and he has been tried in a higher grade since. He is not a particularly big horse and I can’t see him shouldering his big weight successfully this year. He is 15lbs higher in the handicap while Suegioo enjoys a 10lbs pull for three and half lengths from Newcastle. I certainly wouldn’t rule out Marco Botti’s charge after a gentle warm-up race at Ripon.

The one that catches the eye is Quick Jack, trained by Tony Martin in Ireland. He has been favourite for a string of big handicaps on the flat and over jumps over the past 18 months. His trainer has chosen very carefully and has been rewarded with a victory at Galway and two fine placed efforts at Newmarket and Cheltenham.

He was unlucky not to win the Cesarewitch when beaten only three-quarters of a length into third behind Big Easy. Richard Hughes was on board that day and hit the front with a furlong to run. Don’t expect to see him until very late on here and much will depend on whether Hughes can weave his way through the field. There is a lot of rain forecast over the next couple of days and connections will be hoping that some of it falls on the Roodeye.

Mubaraza was favourite last year but failed to quicken in the home straight and finished fourth. Ed Dunlop also runs Trip To Paris who is on a hat-trick under Graham Lee. He stepped up to two miles for the first time at Ripon and beat Gabrial’s King decisively. The runner-up did not get a clear run up the straight but would not have beaten Trip To Paris. If the going stays on the quick side, he could be worth a saver.

Quick Jack 3.10 Chester Wednesday @6-1 Stan James