Champions League – Juventus v Real Madrid Preview

The Champions League semi-final line-up is almost as expected with Juventus the only real surprise. The Italian giants have not reached the closing stages of this tournament since 2003 and the bookmakers rank them as 9-1 outsiders to go all the way.

They host reigning champions Real Madrid in the first leg of their semi-final on Tuesday night. The closing stages of this competition can be notoriously cagey affairs, particularly in the first leg. If the quarter-finals can be taken as any guide, this game is unlikely to buck the trend.

Juventus held on by a single goal to beat Monaco while Real Madrid looked destined for extra-time in their clash with local rivals Atletico. A red card for Arda Turan with fifteen minutes to go put Atletico firmly on the back foot and Javier Hernandez struck with just two minutes remaining. The win did little to convince the bookmakers that Real are good enough to defend their title, easing them to third favourites behind Bayern Munich and Barcelona.

The value of an away goal was illustrated when Arsenal and Chelsea were both eliminated and Juventus will be intent on preventing Real from scoring. With Benzema still absent, that means that the focus will be on Cristiano Ronaldo to carry the main threat. The Serie A champions have a fine defensive record with thirteen clean sheets this season.

They are also missing a key player on Paul Pogba and they were definitely more restrained in the quarter-finals without him. Carlos Tevez will be the main threat to the Spanish defence and he has enjoyed a great tournament with six goals already to his credit. Juventus would obviously love to have a lead to take to the Bernabeau but all of the omens suggest that this is going to be very tight.

Carlo Ancelotti has great faith in his squad and will make no excuses if they are beaten here. They were the more offensive side against Atletico in both matches and they will probably enjoy more of the ball than their opponents here. Go low on goals and it may be worth taking a little of the 7-1 on offer about a goalless draw.

Juventus 0 Real Madrid 0 @7-1 Bet365

Goals under 2.5 @8-13 Bet Victor

Sha Tin Preview 3rd May

HONG KONG RACING SUNDAY 3 May 1915

SHA TIN

The Champions Mile

Yet another sensation days racing at Sha Tin with the feature race being The Champions Mile. Certainly void of runners but it has been billed as the best miller in the world at current standings in “Able Friend” who has rose to an amazing ranking this season. Should be the one to beat once again as his form over this distance and up to 2000m is outstanding. However he comes up against the very talented “Luger” who won the Hong Kong Derby in very good fashion so he does have what you would expect to be a good test on his hands today. I do expect both going on the performances today will be racing in the UK when all the Group racing begins so it really is worth getting involved here and at least watching just how this race pans out. The last three races on the card also look very solid class races and will prove to be every entertaining. Have a great day and above all enjoy the card at Sha Tin.

 

Track and Conditions: Turf A+3 course and the track will be rated as good.

Expected Weather: Sunny Intervals with a few showers and a top temperature of 30 degrees so it will be on the humid side. Wind will be from the south to southwest at around the 20Km/h mark so there will be a slight tailwind down the straight which will only slightly assist closers but it should be a fairly even playing ground just the same.

 

Best Bet: Race 10 No 11 Lucky Year

Best Value: Race 11 No 4 Dashing Fellow

Best Exotic Races: Race No’s 9-10-11

Quaddie:-

Race 7: 1-3 Race 8: 1-10-3-6 Race 9: 11-1 Race 10: 3-4-5-10

 

Race 1: — Time: 4.30am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Griffin Race

Top Pick: No 3 Highland Hammers

Value Selection: No 6 Happy Chappy

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Super Dragon and No 2 Eastern Express

 

Race Overview

 

Highland Hammer stuck on well behind Happy Chappy last start over the 1000m.Both have trained on very well since that first start. They meet again today over the extra ground and both have widish gates but it is a small field. He should be improved by that first up run and I expect there should not be too much between the top four here. Happy Chappy recorded a very nice win first up from a draw which was wide so he appears to have a bit of talent. Goes over the extra ground today and comes up with another wide draw in gate 9 but looks to be a nice type and can go well once again in a small field.

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 9 Jun Hao

Value Selection: No 1 Best Jade Triumph

Exotic Inclusions: No 4 On The Way and No Fantasticlife

 

Race Overview

 

Jun Hao certainly looks close to a win going on his current performances this season. He has never been far away and ran a very nice close up 3rd last start over this distance. Always has good hoops in the saddle and today is no exception with Douglas Whyte back in the saddle. Retains the same weight as he has been carrying all season and comes up with the rails draw so he should get a nice trail in the running. Best Jade Triumph always seems to go well at this class and distance and since dropping back in class this time he has gone close on all occasions. No real difference in the weights today. Comes up with a nice draw and should be well placed in the running and he also retains the master of the weave in Brett Prebble in the saddle.

 

 

Race 3: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 1 Spitfire

Value Selection: No 10 Never Better

Exotic Inclusions: No 12 Peace Combination and No 8 Distinct Commander

 

Race Overview

 

Spitfire has never been far away recently since dropping back to this class and has not been over this distance since class three when he found it a bit much but at his class and from a very nice draw in gate 11 with Douglas Whyte in the saddle he has to come under strong consideration here. Never Better just the two starts in Hong Kong and does appear to be improving. Drops a touch in weight and comes up with a nice draw in gate 12 which is close in over this course. Retains regular hoop and would not have to improve too much to be a bit of a hope here in a fairly open race.

 

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 2 Happy Agility

Value Selection: No 9 Thewisardofoz

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Regency Darling and No 11 Fun Tapestry / No 13 Bernard’s Choice

 

Race Overview

 

Happy Agility just the one start in Hong Kong and won well on that occasion with a very nice on paced performance over this distance at this class an d as a result goes up in the weights but does still look ok as he carries 127Lbs first up and has to be a consideration today going on his last start. Drawn wide today but has the speed to offset that. Retains Zac Purton in the saddle and goes in as another good chance today. Thewizardofoz is currently at just on or around each way but by start time may be favourite with Joao Moreira in the saddle despite drawing gate 14. His trials have been excellent and if drawn in closer he would certainly be hard to beat on those results. However he has good natural speed and should be able to cross into a forward position just the same. On trial form he looks a very nice type.

 

Race 5: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 5 Joyful Moments

Value Selection: No 4 Young Ranger

Exotic Inclusions: No 12 Sparkling Sword and No 2 Asia Rising

 

Race Overview

 

Open affair here if you take out Joyful Moments who does look the form way to go here. Just the three starts in Hong Kong but all have been good being placed 2nd at his last two starts and his last run was over this distance at Sha Tin from a similar draw. He gets Joao Moreira in the saddle today which will most likely keep his odds under’s so if you fancy him I would be getting in early. Young Ranger dropped back to this class recently and ran a nice race last start over the 1400m when he went to the line well in running 3rd only 1/2 of a length from the winner. Has trained on well and looks a bit of a chance with Zac Purton in the saddle. Only query is the wide gate and the slow pace but Zac will most likely look to get across early and he does look to have the pace to do just that.  Sparkling Sword has not been very far away since going up to this class recently and with what is expected to be a slow paced race should lead and may very well run a cheeky race at nice odds here.

 

Race 6: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 10 Bear Pop

Value Selection: No 4 Winner St Paul

Exotic Inclusions: No 11 Master Viking and No 3 Jolly Spring / No 8 Unique Awesome.

 

Race Overview

 

Bear Pop was getting home well last start until being held up in the straight and gives the impression that he may be ready to put in a good race looking at that effort as he was only 1 3/4 of a length away in the wash up. Should be at nice each way odds and can run well against this field despite the wide gate. Winner St Paul just the five starts in Hong Kong and he has been consistent and continues to improve. Comes up with a nice gate today and Zac Purton jumps back on board for the first time since his first start which was a failure at Happy Valley when he ran all over the place. But has shown good form since which has all been at Sha Tin. Looks close to breaking through.

 

Race 7: — Time: 7.35am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 9 Charity Kingdom

Value Selection: No 3 Horse Of Fortune

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Red Dancer and No 7 Cheeky Too / No 1 Good Choice.

 

Race Overview

 

Charity Kingdom has been very consistent over the 1400m at his last three starts at this class and has been closing well on all those occasions. Goes up to the 1600m today and certainly looks like he will appreciate the extra ground today. Retains Zac Purton in the saddle and stays at a nice weight which will certainly help. Solid chance. Horse Of Fortune just the four starts in Hong Kong and the last two were over the Happy Valley mile where he put in decent efforts on both occasions. Comes up with a nice draw today and should once again enjoy a nice run just behind the speed near the rails. Does come across as a decent each way chance today.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.05am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Group One

Top Pick: No 1 Able Friend

Value Selection: No 3 Luger

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Dan Excel and No 4 Rewarding Hero

 

Race Overview

 

Only a six horse field but it is all class. Able Friend is certainly the star performer of the season in Hong Kong but I wasn’t completely taken by his last start performance even though he won well but it may have been due to the transition up and down to the 1400m then back to the mile. Did not seem to possess the same very quick turn of foot as he has shown previously but he is without doubt a class act and will be hard to keep out here. Is at the peak of his career and is without doubt a sensational race horse that deserves to have a crack at richer races in the UK. But he will not have it all his own way as Luger has gone from strength to strength since a few set backs earlier this season and has really shown his class. If all had gone well early this season I really did expect he would have gone to Dubai. He should be somewhere near the lead running into the straight and should be the one to run down however Dan Excel who has taken a bit of time to get going in his preparations looks to have been set for this as well and ran a very nice on paced 4th last start over this distance at HKG2 and may very well ensure a decent pace which will play into the hands of the other runners who like to finish hard with the exception of Secret Sham who may try to pinch the race if it is a slower pace than expected. Great race despite the small field and tactics will play a big part.

 

Race 9: — Time: 8.40pm GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 2

Top Pick: 1 Not Listenin’ Tome

Value Selection: No 10 Dane Patrol

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Looks Like A Cat and No 6 Jet wings

 

Race Overview

 

Good quality class two sprint here. Not Listenin’ Tome just the one start in Hong Kong and that was over this distance at HKG3 when he ran a very nice on paced race from a draw which was no help what so ever. Gomes up with a much better draw today in gate 11 which is much closer to the grandstand rail. Gets a big hit up in the weights today but he also has a senior hoop in the saddle in Douglas Whyte. Would like to see him over a bit more ground but just the same may have the class to go close here. Dane Patrol is a very under rated runner and has proven that this season with a very honest score card after winning on two occasions and placed in another two and never far away in his other starts. Has very good gate speed and will be in this for a long way.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.15pm GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3

Top Pick: No: 11 Lucky Year

Value Selection: No 1 Strathmore

Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Spicy Sure and No 8 Lucky Day / No 2 Righteous

 

                                                         Race Overview

                                                                       

Now this is a very solid Class Three and it is very very competitive but the way Lucky Year won at his first start in Hong Kong he certainly has to be the one to run down here. Up in class today but will trot around with just 115lbs on his back in retaining his last start hoop and a small claim. Comes up with another great draw in gate 2 and should get a very nice run in transit once again. Strathmore won well last start and going on his lead up form prior to that win he has to go in with another very good chance once again today. Certainly been hit hard with the weights but if he carries it he has to go close from a gun gate and Tommy Berry in the saddle. Weight the only issue here. Spicy Sure only the one run in Hong Kong but it was a very pleasing effort running second to Strathmore on that occasion and even though he was well beaten in the wash up there was a lot to like about that run. Comes up with another nice draw today in gate five and should be well placed in the running as a result of that. Overseas form indicates that he should go well at this class.

 

Race 11: — Time: 9.50pm GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 3

Top Pick: No: 3 Sky Hero

Value Selection: No 4 Dashing Fellow

Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Secret Command and No 10 Forever Accurate

 

                                                         Race Overview

                                                                       

Sky Hero only the four races in Hong Kong and all have been very good. Went up to this class and gave them a canning all be it with a light weight. Been hit up in the weights as a result of that run but does appear to have talent and should progress beyond this class if he continues to improve as he has been. Dashing Fellow has been on song all season as well and won well last start at this class and even though up in the weights as a result of that win he has to come under consideration on form alone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Newmarket Sunday Preview

Gleneagles (4-1) and Goldream (5-1) gave us a profit on the first day of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. It is the fillies turn to take centre stage on Sunday with the 1000 Guineas, the Pretty Polly Stakes and the Dahlia Stakes.

Our regular readers will be hoping that Local Time gives us a good run having been tipped at 40-1 in the ante-post lists. She is a lot shorter than that now and should not mind the quicker ground judged by her action on dirt. The race does not look particularly strong, especially with O’Brien having taken out both Found and Together Forever.

There are a couple of almost impossible handicaps on the card starting with the 1.50. Lungarno Palace did us a favour at the recent Epsom meeting while Watersmeet has looked a much improved performer on the all-weather. Arab Dawn has attracted market support and looks the sort to develop into a decent handicapper this season, although you could make a case for a dozen of these.

Andre Fabre went close in the 2000 Guineas with Territories and sends over Fintry for the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes. It is interesting to see Clive Brittain’s Rizeena kept in training while Bragging looked a progressive filly last season for Sir Michael Stoute.

A sharp pin may be as good as anything in the sprint at 3.00 but I’m going to give Zanetto another try. He has looked very useful on occasions and was tried at Group 1 level by Andrew Balding last summer. I’m a bit worried by the draw after the way the Guineas panned out and Huntsmans Close could be worth a saver on this side of the track.

The Pretty Polly Stakes has produced the last two Oaks winners in Talent and Taghrooda. There certainly does not seem to be anything of that quality entered on Sunday. It isn’t that often that Dermot Weld sends one over so presumably Zannda will handle the quicker surface and could step up on her Leopardstown form.

The closing handicap is another puzzler with Muqtaser representing the Dissolution form from the Craven meeting. The first six home that day could have been covered with a large horse blanket so the form may be suspect. Her Majesty The Queen’s Mustard seemed to hang fire last time out so I’m going for Godolphin’s Global Force. He made all to win his maiden in good style and could be tough to peg back.

Arab Dawn 1.50 @12-1 Ladbrokes

Fintry 2.25 @2-1 Bet365

Huntsmans Close 3.00 @12-1 Bet365

Zanetto 3.00 @16-1 Coral

Local Time 3.40 @40-1* ante-post (now 16-1 generally)

Zannda 4.50 @3-1 Coral

Global Force 5.25 @9-2 Coral

Kentucky Derby Preview

The Kentucky Derby is probably the most eagerly awaited race of the season in the United States. The first leg of the American Triple Crown could see a new star emerge and it is Bob Baffert who holds the aces with both first and second favourite.

American Pharoah was made hot favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last season only to miss the race through injury. He was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes in September and the third horse, Texas Red, went on to take the glory at Santa Anita.

He reappeared at Oaklawn in March and swept to an easy six and a quarter length victory followed by an effortless win in the Arkansas Derby. His stable companion Dortmund is an enormous colt by Big Brown and is unbeaten after six races. He got the better of Firing Line by a head in December and repeated the performance in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes. He made all to win by four and a quarter lengths last time in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and it will be interesting to see how he handles this big field.

Todd Pletcher runs three here with Breeders’ Cup runner-up Carpe Diem looking the most likely. He has won both of his races this season impressively, winning the Blue Grass Stakes by three lengths last time out. Stable companion Materiality is unbeaten after three races and showed good form to beat Upstart in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Firing Line won the Group 3 Sunland Derby last time out, a thoroughly deserved success after two fine tussles with the mighty Dortmund. He is priced at 12-1 under Gary Stevens while Baffert’s horse is around 7-2 so there could be some each-way value there.

Backing Meydan form here is something of a risk but Mick de Kock’s Mubtaahij could also be worth supporting at decent odds. The son of Dubawi was unlucky to be beaten in the UAE 2000 Guineas but made no mistake last time when bolting clear in the UAE Derby to win by eight lengths. Christophe Soumillon takes the ride on him.

This looks a really competitive renewal and there is bound to be a furious pace. The draw could be a concern for American Pharoah’s supporters but he looks a straight-forward ride and is the one to beat.

Tips

American Pharoah @3-1 Paddy Power

Mubtaahij @12-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Chelsea set to seal Premiership title

There are two Premiership fixtures on Sunday and Chelsea have the chance to seal the title in the early kick-off at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues had to come back from a goal down to beat Leicester in midweek but they did so in some style. Goals from Drogba, Terry and Ramires put them on the verge of winning the title for the first time since 2010. A win over London rivals Crystal Palace will be enough to wrestle the prize away from Manchester City who have been left trailing since drawing level on points on New Year’s Day.

Chelsea have led the Premier League since the start of the season and have only been beaten twice. Defeats at Newcastle and Tottenham have been the only blips on an otherwise dominant campaign. They have come in for criticism in recent weeks for being boring but the league table does not lie and a thirteen point lead illustrates their superiority.

Jose Mourinho has been keen to keep his players focussed on the job in hand and he will not take the visitors lightly. A one-goal victory would be perfectly satisfactory, even if it does leave their supporters biting their nails for the closing minutes. The superb Hazard is likely to have Loic Remy ahead of him in attack but I am taking a punt on Nemanja Matic to score the winner. His capture was a masterstroke by Mourinho and he would be a very appropriate player to strike the championship winning goal.

If Chelsea have secured the title, there could be something of a cloud over Manchester City for the late kick-off at Tottenham. It will be a surprise if Manuel Pellegrini is still at the helm next season after a moderate campaign with no silverware. A top four spot looks virtually assured after Liverpool dropped further points at Hull so there isn’t any real pressure on City here.

Tottenham have a miserable record against City, most particularly Sergio Aguero who scored four goals in the reverse fixture. That game included four penalty awards but the result flattered City. This game should be entertaining and the sides can share the points at 2-2.

Tips

Chelsea 1 Crystal Palace 0 @6-1 Paddy Power

Nemanja Matic to score first @25-1 Paddy Power

Tottenham v Man City DRAW @11-4 Bet365

Tottenham 2 Man City 2 @13-1 BetVictor

Newmarket Saturday Preview

Last week we previewed the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and came down on the side of Gleneagles at 9-4. Surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien’s colt can be backed at 7-2 with Paddy Power on the eve of the first classic of the 2015 season.

Highland Reel has been diverted to the French Guineas having drifted to 50-1 on Betfair prior to the announcement from Ballydoyle. Stable companion Ol Man River has come from nowhere to be third favourite at around 6-1. We shall keep faith with the proven two-year-old form of Gleneagles and hope that the market moves are wide of the mark.

There is also a fine supporting card and Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can get favourite backers off to a good start with Top Tug. He is very lightly raced and matches the profile of previous winners of this race for the powerful Newmarket yard.

The Palace House Sprint does not look particularly strong this year and it may be worth taking a chance on Goldream to successfully step up in class. He was tough and consistent last season for Robert Cowell who is an expert with sprinters. There is a very disappointing turnout for the Jockey Club Cup with Telescope facing only three rivals.

He is top class on his day, as he showed when running away with the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. He won’t be at his peak for his seasonal debut and Pether’s Moon is the one most likely to give him a race on Saturday.

Henry Candy was a relieved man when Limato came out and won at Ascot in midweek. He sends out another potentially top class sprinter in the 4.20 with the unbeaten Twilight Son. He won both of his races as a two-year-old, including a victory over Desert Force. Richard Hannon’s horse came out and won well at Newbury but now finds himself 11lbs worse off with Twilight Son. Candy’s charge only just got up to win at Thirsk but was trapped at the back of the field with two furlongs to run and did well to make up the ground.

Azmaam was very unlucky at the Craven meeting and can reverse form with Rocky Rider in the 4.55 while Godolphin’s Greatest Journey looks the value bet in the closing race. He was only just denied by Cape Clear Island last time and could be even more effective over this two furlongs shorter trip.

Top Tug 2.00 @9-2 William Hill

Goldream 2.30 @6-1 Betfred

Telescope 3.05 @4-7 Stan James

Gleneagles 3.45 @7-2 Paddy Power

Twilight Son 4.20 @13-8 Betfair

Azmaam 4.55 @7-2 Paddy Power

Greatest Journey 5.30 @6-1 Paddy Power