Champions League Preview – April 22nd

Hat’s off to Bayern Munich for their 6-1 demolition of Porto in the Champions League on Tuesday night. I didn’t see that coming after their poor display in the first leg. Fortunately Barcelona won by a two-goal margin to give us a return on our bets for the night.

If Wednesday night’s matches follow a similar script, it will be Real Madrid and Juventus going through and bookmakers make that the most likely scenario. However, it is unlikely to be straight forward for Carlo Ancelotti’s team as they meet local rivals Atletico with the tie locked at 0-0 after the first leg.

Atletico have beaten them four times and drawn the other three in their seven previous meetings this season. They ought to know each other inside out, which would probably explain the dull stalemate in the first leg. This match looks more likely to develop at the pace of a game of chess rather than a swashbuckling goal feast.

Another factor is the current injury crisis afflicting Real. They will be without Gareth Bale, Luka Modric and Karim Benzema while Marcelo is suspended. Ancelotti believes that he has the strongest squad in Europe and that may well be the case, but they are surely going to miss four such high quality players.

Atletico are without the suspended Mario Suarez but are otherwise at full strength and will be looking to soak up the pressure and hit Real on the break. They have kept seven clean sheets in nine matches so they are well equipped to do so. The best value here may be in a low scoring game with a repeat of the 0-0 scoreline worth a bet at good odds.

In the other match, Juventus travel to Monaco defending a slender one-goal advantage. They have dominated Serie A in the last four seasons but this is the first time that they have been in the last eight since 2012-13. A semi-final place beckons and Carlos Tevez could be the man to put them there. The former journeyman Premiership player has been in great form all season and even the absence of Pogba should not prevent a win for the Italians.

They have a wealth of experience in their squad including Andrea Pirlo, Gianluigi Buffon and Patrice Evra. Monaco clung on desperately against Arsenal in the last round and, rather like PSG, this may be a step too far. It may be worth speculating on a comfortable win for Juventus.

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid DRAW @13-5 BetVictor

Real Madrid 0 Atletico 0 @10-1 BetVictor

Goals under 2.5 @8-11 William Hill

Juventus to win @7-5 Ladbrokes

Carlos Tevez to score and Juventus win @7-2 Paddy Power

Monaco 0 Juventus 3 @28-1 BetVictor

Epsom Preview 22nd April

The Derby may seem long way off but Epsom gets its season under way on Wednesday with the Derby Trial meeting. A very competitive card also features the City And Suburban, the Great Metropolitan and a five-furlong dash.

It is the sprint which kicks things off at 2.10 and it may be worth siding with the in-form combination of Kevin Ryan and Jamie Spencer. They have already collected a couple of decent sprint prizes this spring and are represented by Piazon here. The four-year-old needs to improve but this doesn’t look the toughest event ever staged on the Surrey track.

The Great Metropolitan Handicap could go the way of Lungarno Palace who caught the eye when storming through into fourth behind Mica Mika at Doncaster last time. It is not the first time that the son of Henrythenavigator has hinted that a  longer trip might be in order. He also stayed on well when third at Newmarket over ten furlongs last October and he should go well for John Gallagher and Tom Queally.

There has not been a really credible Derby contender from the Trial since Daliapour in 1999 but Christophermarlowe could develop into a useful colt. He looked big and unfurnished last season but stuck on for two victories at Sandown and here at Epsom. If he has done well physically through the winter, he can see off Future Empire who is rated top on official figures.

The City And Suburban can got to the bottom weight, Collaboration, trained by Andrew Balding. I liked the way he quickened away at Windsor on his first start of the season and he can make the most of the 13lbs he receives from What About Carlo. That horse was a highly credible fourth in the Lincoln over a mile and should be much better suited by this trip.

Mezajy gets the vote in the maiden race at 4.30 after being tenderly ridden into third place at Nottingham by Graham Lee. The form has been let down since but he looked capable of stepping up on that effort, particularly if he is ridden more prominently this time. The danger is the Charles Hills-trained Mile High.

There are some promising three-year-olds in the final race including two in the Godolphin colours. New Strategy made all to win at Newmarket but I just prefer Deerfield who won his maiden at Thirsk. He was not really asked for maximum effort until the closing stages that day and could be the better value of the pair.

Piazon 2.10 @7-1 Paddy Power

Lungano Palace 2.45 @9-2 William Hill

Christophermarlowe 3.20 @10-11 Betfair

Collaboration 3.55 @13-2 Paddy Power

Mezajy 4.30 @5-4 Bet365

Deerfield 5.05 @11-2 William Hill

Champions League Preview – April 21st

The Champions League semi-finalists are to be decided this week. On Tuesday night, Barcelona should ease past PSG with a comfortable 3-1 lead from the away leg but Bayern Munich face an uphill struggle to reach the last four.

The Germans went into the away leg missing several key players and were beaten 3-1. They welcome back Xabi Alonso, Thiago Alcântara, Jérôme Boateng, Bastian Schweinsteiger and Philipp Lahm for the return leg. They will still be without Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben and that could be vital. Despite their fine display in the first leg, Porto can still be backed at close to even money to go through.

I don’t there are any Premiership sides that would be odds-on to overturn such a deficit but Bayern are dominant in the Bundesliga. They are twelve points clear of Wolfsburg and were elevated to Champions League favourites after beating Shakhtar 7-0. Pep Guardiola’s side have a true Champions League pedigree but Porto may still be under-estimated. Julen Lopetegui’s side can be dangerous on the break with Jackson Martinez and Ricardo Quaresma and they could be the value bet.

Barcelona have a much easier task at home to PSG after running rings around them in Paris. In fact, Luis Suarez did precisely that to David Luiz on two occasions. The £50million former Chelsea centre-back must have thought his nightmare was over after that World Cup humiliation against Germany. With Thiago Silva out through injury, Luiz could be left exposed on Tuesday night and it would be no surprise to see Barcelona ease to a comfortable victory.

The French champions do have Zlatan Ibrahimovic back in the side but they were very fortunate to get past a lack-lustre Chelsea in the last round and they simply don’t look good enough. Laurent Blanc has to try to formulate a plan for this match but I cannot see them going out to attack. I believe that they will try to stay in the tie in the first half before searching for a lifeline goal after the break. Barring a sending-off for the home side, this looks like a formality for the Spaniards to book their place in the last four.

Porto to qualify @10-11 Coral

Ricardo Quaresma to score at any time @7-1 Betfair

Luis Suarez to score and Barcelona win @6-4 Paddy Power

Lionel Messi to score and Barcelona win @10-11 Ladbrokes

Barcelona to win by 2 goals @10-3 Bet365

2015 F1 Bahrain Grand Prix Preview

Only three people have stepped upon the podium in the first three races of the 2015 Formula One season, and – based on qualifying for Bahrain – that trend looks set to continue as Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel and Nico Rosberg line-up as one, two and three on the grid once again.

Reigning champion, Hamilton, was in imperious form once again at the Chinese Grand Prix last weekend. He produced a controlled performance to keep teammate, Rosberg, at bay, while perfectly executing his tactical plan to land the fast laps as and when he needed them. The win in Shanghai opened up a 13-point gap over second-place Vettel, who had to settle for third-place behind the Mercedes’ pair.

There was some controversy for Mercedes’ though, as ever, regarding the intriguing relationship of Rosberg and Hamilton. In this instance, Rosberg accused the Brit of trying to back him up into Sebastian Vettel – something which Hamilton refuted. Elsewhere, some people were left displeased with Hamilton after he sprayed one of the Chinese hostesses with champagne at the podium celebration – although both parties have moved to play the event down.

Hamilton enjoyed his first victory in Bahrain in 2014, however Vettel had won the two previous Grand Prix events here race. Fernando Alonso is the most successful ever driver here though, with three victories.

2015 Bahrain Grand Prix Starting Grid

  1. Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes
  2. Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari
  3. Nico Rosberg – Mercedes
  4. Kimi Raikkonen – Ferrari
  5. Valtteri Bottas – Williams Mercedes
  6. Felipe Massa – Williams Mercedes

Prediction

The big question that is starting to form this season is whether anyone will break the holy trinity of Hamilton, Vettel and Rosberg to get on the podium? All three have been on the podium for each of the opening three races of the season – a feat that has never been seen before in F1.

Hamilton is, once again, strong favourite to win again in Bahrain at just 1/2 (bet365 and SkyBet), while Sebastian Vettel is reasonably priced to take the title at 7/2 (Betfred).

There only seems to be three contenders at this moment, but someone is surely going to break into the podium positions sooner rather than later. Therefore, best bet for the weekend seems to be expecting one of the Williams Mercedes drivers to finish in the top three. Valtteri Bottas had the better of qualifying over his teammate Felipe Massa, so I’m going with the Finnish driver to secure a podium finish at the very decent price of 13/2 at SkyBet or Paddy Power.

Tip:

Valtteri Bottas to get a podium finish – 13/2 at SkyBet or Paddy Power

Bahrain F1 Race Details:

Track: Bahrain International Circuit

Start Time: 16:00 GMT Sunday (18:00 local)

Laps: 57

Track Length: 5.412

Tyre Allocation: Medium (white) and Soft (yellow)

Lap Record: Pedro de la Rosa – 1:31.447 (McLaren; 2005)

FA Cup Semi-Final Previews

FA Cup holders Arsenal face Reading on Saturday with Liverpool playing Aston Villa on Sunday in the semi-finals at Wembley.

The Gunners are the in-form team in the Premiership and have stormed into second place. They are now going in pursuit of leaders Chelsea who have been far from convincing in recent weeks. The clash between Chelsea and Manchester United could open the door for an unlikely Premier League title for Arsene Wenger’s side who host the Blues next weekend.

In the meantime, they will look to take another step towards retaining their treasured silverware in the FA Cup against Reading. With eleven victories in their last twelve matches, confidence could not be higher at Arsenal. They have Olivier Giroud almost scoring at will with ten goals in as many matches and a fully fit squad heading into the final games of the season. This time last year, Arsenal needed penalties to get past Wigan before stumbling to a two-goal deficit in the final. The pressure of ending their long wait for a trophy seemed to be almost too much.

They are now free from such concerns and I cannot see them faltering against an out-of-form Reading. Since sneaking past Bradford in a replay, Reading have lost three of their last four matches. They have failed to score in almost six hours of football and this looks set up for the Gunners to go through to the final in style.

Sunday’s clash between Liverpool and Aston Villa looks far more competitive with Tim Sherwood having led a revival in Villa’s fortunes. They are still fighting for their Premiership lives but the return to form of Christian Benteke has given them a very powerful weapon. When he is at his best, he can torment any defence in the league and Liverpool could be in for a difficult time.

Liverpool’s form has deteriorated in recent weeks and a top four spot seems to have slipped away from them. They are clinging on to the hope that Man City go into freefall and allow them to overtake them but it looks unlikely. Their extra motivation for reaching the final is to secure another trophy for departing skipper Steven Gerrard. On their best form, they should certainly beat Villa but it may be worth taking a chance on Benteke causing an upset.

Arsenal (-2.0 handicap) @15-8 Skybet

Arsenal 4 Reading 0 @12-1 Skybet

Giroud to score and Arsenal win @Evens Totesport

Christian Benteke to score and Villa win @13-1 Bwin

Benteke to score at any time @11-4 Ladbrokes

Villa to win by a single goal @7-1 Paddy Power

2015 World Snooker Championship Preview

The Crucible takes centre stage this weekend as the 78th edition of the World Snooker Championship starts, with Ronnie O’Sullivan eyeing becoming world champion for a sixth time after being denied a third consecutive title by Mark Selby in last year’s final.

Ronnie O’Sullivan – 5/2 at Paddy Power and 888sport

Despite being one of the most experienced players in the field, you never quite know what to expect from the five-time world champion until he has played his first shot.

O’Sullivan pulled out of the recent China Open, but it wasn’t long ago he recorded that stunning 147 break against Matthew Selt at the UK Championship, before narrowly beating Judd Trump in the final.

It is certainly possible that the 39-year-old could rack up another world title in in Sheffield, but will he be in champion mood?

Mark Selby – 17/2 at Coral

Selby, meanwhile, will be hoping to break the ‘Crucible Curse’ – that is, he will hope to become the first first-time champion to successfully defend his title. The 31-year-old heads to Sheffield in good form too, having recently won the German Masters and China Open, becoming the only player to have won two competitions during a season that has so far produced eight different champions from the nine tournaments to date. That said, to add to his curse, no player that has won the China Open has gone on to triumph in the subsequent World Championship. The omens look bleak for Selby.

That said, 17/2 for the world number one player is remarkably good value.

Judd Trump – 6/1 at Betfred or William Hill

It’s nearly a year since Trump won his last ranking event – the Australian Goldfields Open – but does he have what it takes to secure a first world title?

At 6/1, he is considerably shorter that reigning champion Selby, but still only 25, Trump isn’t yet showing the kind of consistency it takes to be a world champion. That said, you only have to look at O’Sullivan to show that consistency isn’t always key.

Neil Robertson – 6/1 at bet365 or Stan James

The 2010 World Champion will be hoping for a successful end to the 2014/15 season. It’s been a decent year for the Australian, although he hasn’t hit the kind of peak form he did in 2013/14.

No doubt he’ll be a contender, and perhaps his previous winning experience will help him keep his nerve at the Crucible.

Best Bet: Mark Selby to win (e/w) – 17/2 at Coral