Author: Online Betting Pro

I am a punter that loves to follow the horse both in Australia and the United Kingdom. I enjoy writing about sports betting and also casino, poker and bingo. In my spare time I like to keep fit by playing football and going for long bike rides. I also like to travel the world and see amazing place s and meet wonderful people along the way.

Fairyhouse Sunday Preview

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Speculative Bid (4-1) and Lady Dutch (7-2) gave us a tidy profit at Kempton on Saturday. Unfortunately Made Of Love denied us a treble when fading tamely in the closing stages. One lucky punter collected a three-quarters of a million pounds on the Scoop6 and can take it over the million if they win the bonus next weekend. Unfortunately, most of us were knocked out by a 33-1 shocker in the first race at Haydock.

Sunday’s main action comes from Fairyhouse ahead of Monday’s Irish Grand National. There are two Grade 1 races and a Grade 2 featuring several horses that ran well at last month’s Cheltenham festival.

Harry Fry’s Bitofapuzzle ran a fine race to finish a close third behind Glen’s Melody in the Mares’ Hurdle. That was the race which saved the bookmakers a small fortune when Annie Power crashed out at the final hurdle. Bitofapuzzle had no chance of catching that brilliant mare but it was still a fine run and she will have conditions more in her favour on Sunday.

She has shown her best form on soft or heavy ground and this two and a half-mile trip looks perfect. The Pirate Queen was not far behind her that day while Petite Parisienne was not disgraced when fifth in the Triumph Hurdle. This is a stiff task for a four-year-old and a bigger threat may come from Rock On The Moor who missed Cheltenham and will be fresher than most.

It is hard to argue with the form of Shaneshill in the Grade 2 Novice Hurdle at 3.50. He chased home stable companion Douvan in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and had already shown that he stays this trip. It will be interesting to see how the Supreme form matches up with the Neptune, represented here by the fifth and sixth.

Snow Falcon finished ahead of Outlander that day but the latter could turn the tables here. He was not fluent at his hurdles and had nothing left for the dash to the line.

The Ryanair Gold Cup at 4.20 puts the JLT Novices’ Chase form to the test with second and third in action, Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido. They were separated by only a short-head that day, albeit 15 lengths adrift of the impressive Vatour. Bryan Cooper dropped his whip on Valseur Lido but it’s hard to say how much difference that may have made.

They both face a tricky opponent in Gitane Du Berlais, an impressive winner of the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown. Willie Mullins elected to send him to France next for a valuable prize over hurdles and he is almost certain to set the pace under Ruby Walsh. I just wonder if he can keep it up in these conditions and prefer the claims of Apache Stronghold.

Bitofapuzzle 3.20 @3-1 Bet365

Shaneshill 3.50 @8-11 Ladbrokes

Apache Stronghold 4.20 @9-2 Paddy Power

Scoop6 Jackpot set to hit £1.25 million!

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The Scoop6 Jackpot is expected to be close to £1.25 million on Saturday after the win fund eluded punters for a sixth successive week. As you would expect, they have not made it easy for punters with a treacherous looking card at Haydock providing five of the six races plus one from Kempton. In truth, you will probably need psychic powers or a sharp pin to unravel this lot but we’ve done our best to provide a few pointers.

2.00 Haydock

The combination of soft ground and large fields is the order of the day at Haydock starting with a gruelling three and a half mile handicap chase. At first glance, Midlands National third Woodford County has plenty of weight but his rider takes off 7lbs, leaving him just 5lbs higher than the bottom weight. Richard Johnson looks a significant booking on Incentivise who is the only one of these to have won at the distance.

WOODFORD COUNTY, INCENTIVISE

2.25 Haydock

Hindon Road blundered away his chance in a three-mile hurdle at Newbury last time and should go well off 10 stone here for Alan King and Wayne Hutchinson. Tony McCoy will be a popular choice on Upswing who is closely weighted with Gold Futures on recent form but it may be worth taking a chance on Kim Bailey’s Net Work Rouge.

HINDON ROAD, NET WORK ROUGE

2.50 Kempton

This is the only race in the Scoop6 away from the minefield of Haydock. Queen Catrine is a big of an enigma having run a fine race at Royal Ascot but done nothing since. Lady Dutch looks an altogether more straight forward ride for the in-form Marco Botti stable.

LADY DUTCH, QUEEN CATRINE

3.10 Haydock

Back over the jumps for another marathon handicap. King Of The Wolds was an easy winner last time while Astigos makes some appeal off a low weight.

KING OF THE WOLDS, ASTIGOS

3.45 Haydock

It doesn’t get any easier later in the day with another big field for the 888Sport Handicap Chase. Bob Tucker is not the fastest thing on four legs but he keeps galloping while Canuspotit looks fairly treated on his best form.

BOB TUCKER, CANUSPOTIT

4.20 Haydock

If any of you are still standing at this point, Good Luck! Only ten to choose from here! Racing Post ratings put only 6lbs between first and last. Ustica clearly wasn’t himself last time out and is worth another chance while Royale Django stayed on stoutly at Southwell.

USTICA, ROYALE DJANGO

Totesport Scoop 6

Premiership Preview April 4th – 6th

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The Premier League returns after the International break and kicks off with the lunchtime clash between Arsenal and Liverpool at the Emirates.

Arsenal have the incentive of moving above Man City into second place with the champions not due to play until Monday. Their recent form has been impressive, including their brave attempt to overturn a 3-1 deficit in the Champions League against Monaco. They could not quite manage the 3-0 win that they needed but I was impressed with their all-out attack that night.

Olivier Giroud is the man in form with Alexis Sanchez having gone off the boil slightly in recent weeks. Arsene Wenger has plenty of attacking options including Theo Walcott and they should be able to unlock the Liverpool defence. The visitors are currently on a run of six away games without conceding but the suspension picked up by Martin Skrtel could prove damaging.

Liverpool’s hopes of a top four spot will be severely dented if they lose this one with Manchester United also having improved in recent weeks. The Red Devils grabbed a 2-1 win at Anfield last time, courtesy of two goals from Juan Mata. The Spaniard has been steady rather than spectacular this season but produced a piece of individual brilliance to seal the points.

With Wayne Rooney also in good form, it is difficult to see Aston Villa coming away with anything from Old Trafford this weekend. Tim Sherwood should be able to steer them to safety and they still have the FA Cup to chase.

Jose Mourinho has been busy with his calculator and the Blues need six wins and a draw to seal the title from their remaining nine games. Those fixtures include Arsenal, Liverpool and Man United so they cannot afford to drop points at home to Stoke. They have a phenomenal record against the Potters but may start without Diego Costa. His hamstring is still an issue, although he is in Saturday’s squad.

Harry Kane did not hit the target for England against Italy but will still be basking in the glory of his goal against Lithuania on his debut. Tottenham travel to Burnley on Sunday and should be good enough to take all three points. Sunderland take on Newcastle in desperate need of points but they cannot expect any favours from their Tyneside rivals.

Man City could find themselves in fourth place by the time they face Crystal Palace on Monday night. They could be trailing Chelsea by nine points so they will need to dig deep to keep their title hopes alive. Sergio Aguero has a habit of bailing them out when they need it and he can do so again on Monday.

Arsenal to beat Liverpool @10-11 William Hill

Olivier Giroud to score at any time @13-10 Bet365

Man United (-1) to beat Aston Villa @5-6 Paddy Power

Juan Mata to score at any time @2-1 Totesport

Chelsea (-1) to beat Stoke @5-6 Paddy Power

Tottenham to beat Burnley @5-4 BetVictor

Harry Kane to score at any time @6-5 BetVictor

Sergio Aguero to score at any time @9-10 BetVictor

Kempton Park Saturday Preview

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After the excitement of the All-Weather Championships at Lingfield, the flat racing action moves to Kempton on Saturday.

There are some decent handicappers in action in the 2.15 with the weights headed by Outback Traveller. Jeremy Noseda’s four-year-old has gone up 12lbs since beating a decent field by seven lengths at Ascot last autumn. That was by far his best run of the season and it will be interesting to see how he fares off this new mark.

Ninjago was runner-up in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last season but disappointed in Dubai this winter. He wore blinkers for the first time when winning over course and distance last time but the one I like here is Speculative Bid, trained by David Elsworth.

He has gone up 8lbs for a very impressive course and distance victory under Jamie Spencer. He missed the break but threaded his way through the field on the bridle and was only pushed out to score easily.

Queen Catrine was very frustrating last season after her brilliant run at Royal Ascot in June. She came from last place to force a photograph in the Sandringham Handicap but the verdict went to Muteela. She did not reproduce that form in three subsequent outings and is yet to add to her maiden victory at Ayr in 2013.

Wee Jean was just behind her that day and ran well again at Sandown next time before losing her form. Victoria Regina has run a couple of nice races in Dubai but I prefer to side with Lady Dutch, a comfortable winner here last time. Marco Botti does well with his imports and she looks capable of following up.

Frankie Dettori and John Gosden team up in the 3.25 with the lightly-raced Made With Love. He nearly made all on his debut last season at Newmarket and was surprisingly beaten at odds-on next time. Gosden gave the colt a lengthy break and he duly obliged in a moderate maiden over course and distance.

The Newmarket trainer does not tend to keep that many older horses in training unless they are likely to be top class handicappers or better. All of his rivals on Saturday are thoroughly exposed and it will be disappointing if he cannot kick off the new campaign with a win off a mark of 90.

Speculative Bid 2.15 @4-1 Ladbrokes

Lady Dutch 2.50 @7-2 BetVictor

Made With Love 3.25 @2-1 William Hill

NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: A Final Look at the Eastern Conference NBA Championship Race

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With ten days to go in the NBA regular season, we present a final analysis of contenders and pretenders heading into the NBA Playoffs. Today, we look at the Eastern Conference. Who will you bank on to win?

March 26, 2015

 

This has been an NBA regular season for the ages, and we’ve hardly had a moment to catch our breath. With ten days remaining in the regular season, the NBA Championship race remains highly unpredictable in a way that we haven’t seen in decades of professional basketball.

Today, in our final look at NBA Futures betting for the NBA Championship, we take a look at this year’s Eastern Conference contenders as we gear up for a historically competitive NBA playoffs.

 

The Atlanta Hawks:

The Atlanta Hawks are the undisputed Cinderella of the 2015 NBA regular season. They will finish the regular season with the Eastern Conference top record, setting a franchise record for wins along the way. The Hawks have been around since 1949 when they debuted as the Tri-Cities Blackhawks, and this year’s squad has won more games than any since. They are arguably the finest squad in Hawks history.

They play an efficient, unselfish, team-first brand of basketball modelled on ball movement and the San Antonio Spurs’ championship formula. They can defend, they can score, they can shoot and they play for each other. The Atlanta Hawks are really good.

However, the discussion here concerns whether they are good enough to win the NBA Championship. Basketball purists LOVE these Hawks for good reason. In an era where the individual NBA superstar is celebrated to a ludicrous degree, Atlanta is winning with the opposite formula. They have no superstar players. Their strength comes from the collective being stronger than the sum of its individual parts. They play pure, team basketball without relying on a single star.

That’s why this Atlanta team is the darling of the NBA season. But, that is also why the Atlanta Hawks are not going to win the NBA Championship this season.

If NBA history has taught us one thing, it’s that teams without an established superstar do not win NBA titles. Going back 30 years, only the 2004 Detroit Pistons won the NBA Championship without a superstar player. Previous to that, you’d have to go back to the 1979 Seattle Supersonics to find the next team that won without an elite superstar.

That is a whole lot of history the Atlanta Hawks are up against.

The NBA Playoffs are a different animal to the regular season. Defenses tighten up and in a seven-game series, teams play each other 4-7 times in ten days. This means that teams have ample opportunity to make adjustments from game to game.

That’s where the superstar closer comes in to earn the big bucks. During playoff games, all offenses have difficult stretches when everything grinds to halt. That’s when having a great individual player to create scoring from nothing is beyond crucial to success. Atlanta has exactly zero star players who can carry the scoring load. In the NBA Playoffs, that is an alarming situation to be in.

Odds Picture: The Hawks have hovered at 7-1 odds (fourth favourites) for some time now, and that is not going to change. It is not exactly enticing because while Atlanta is very good, they should in reality be closer to 12-1 odds. But because they play in the woeful East, their odds take a beating.

Final Verdict: We love Atlanta and hope that they can shock the world. But history tells us that they’re one great player short. If you’re going to take a punt on a dark horse, we suggest picking one from the deep, deep West, where the odds are juicy all over… (stay tuned to this space for the Western Conference Playoff Preview next week)

 

The Cleveland Cavaliers:

They are hitting top gear, they have the best player in the league by far, they are easily the most dangerous team in the NBA right now and they are the outright favourite to win the NBA Championship. Whether they can beat whoever comes out of the West is another question, but Cleveland’s path to reach the Finals is a lock. Just book it now, the Cavs are making the Finals.

Of the contending teams, Cleveland is the one squad that hasn’t even seen its best side yet. And that is scary, because they have been the best team in the league since the February All-Star break.

It hasn’t been easy, and many questions about chemistry remain. Their new superstar forward, Kevin Love, has had well documented troubles fitting in with LeBron James on and off the court. Their rookie head coach, David Blatt, has battled scrutiny and doubt all season not just from the media, but from his own team. It’s an open secret that LeBron James coaches that team and frequently ignores his coach’s play calls from the sideline.

And yet, none of this has stopped Cleveland from becoming a true scoring juggernaut and the most dangerous team in the NBA heading into the playoffs.

Such is the luxury of having the world’s best player, LeBron James, on your squad. If they ever figure out how to use Kevin Love as he was intended to be used, there will be no stopping Cleveland. There may be no stopping them regardless.

Odds Picture: Cleveland is the bookies favourite to win it all at 2.5/1 odds. It’s actually a good bet, because their easy path to the Finals in the woeful East will be a massive advantage over their Finals opponents. Whoever comes through from the West will have endured a bloodbath to get to the same point as Cleveland.

Final Verdict: Mark it down and set it in stone: Cleveland will be in the Finals. Whether they beat the West’s finest is the real question. But whoever they play, Cleveland will give them all they can handle.

 

The Chicago Bulls:

I hate writing about the Chicago Bulls because you cannot discuss this team for more than ten seconds before somebody brings up Derrick Rose’s constantly broken knees. And who can blame them for doing so? Derrick Rose’s knees are always broken.

The only good thing that comes with his latest injury? At least we know not to waste our money betting on a Bulls championship. It’s not going to happen.

From April 2012 till now, Rose has torn his knees up three times in major injuries. Every positive move has been met with a setback twice as potent. At the end of February this year, he re-tore a meniscus in his knee and underwent surgery again. We have ten games to go until playoff time and instead of finalizing their playoff push, we are still reading about how the former MVP swears he’ll be ready for the postseason.

The only problem is, nobody can believe him anymore. How could we at this point? How is it possible to trust Derrick Rose’s knees when three years of evidence points to a player that may well end up as one of the NBA’s all-time cautionary tales?

Sadly, Derrick Rose is no longer in charge of his body. That means that no matter how well-intentioned he is in what he says or does, the truth is that his body has betrayed him for good.

2012 Derrick Rose is never coming back, and that is very, very sad.

The Bulls are used to playing without Rose, and they have the NBA’s most relentlessly demanding coach. They know how to play at a high level without Rose, but this drive has taken its toll. Key players such as Joakim Noah and Jimmy Butler are all carrying chronic injuries into the playoffs. And with such a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the team, the Bulls are looking at a familiar scene: a spirited underdog performance in the playoffs that is ultimately not enough to win it all.

Odds Picture: The Bulls chances are dropping, and rightfully so. Currently, they stand anywhere from 12-1 odds up to 18-1 odds depending on the sportsbook. Even such a fat potential payout is not enough to entice a punt. Save your money for a real dark horse from the West.

Final Verdict: In short, the Chicago Bulls are done without a healthy Derrick Rose. They only had a puncher’s chance to win even with him in uniform. But trying to rush him back for the playoffs on a set of knees that break twice a year? The Chicago Bulls are not winning anything this year.

 

(Stay tuned for the Western Conference Playoff Preview next week!)

 

Ervedya 16-1 for 1000 Guineas after Imprudence win

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The 1000 Guineas may seem a long way off with the build-up currently in full swing for next week’s Grand National, but the first meaningful trial of the season has already taken place.

His Highness The Aga Khan won the Prix Imprudence at Maisons-Laffite on Thursday with Ervedya, a daughter of Siyouni out of a King’s Best mare. The race was over seven furlongs in heavy ground and Christophe Soumillon bided his time before cutting through the field to win impressively.

It is worth remembering that subsequent Guineas winner Miss France was only sixth in this race last year. Ervedya has top class form from last year and was boosting the credentials of favourite Found, her conqueror in the Prix Marcel Boussac.

Ervedya was badly drawn that day so had to be brought across from stall 12 and make the running. She travelled well in the lead until Found was driven up alongside and quickened away to win by two and a half lengths. Queen Bee was fifth that day and filled third spot at Maisons-Laffitte so the form is looking solid.

William Hill offer the best price of 16-1 about Ervedya for Newmarket and that would be great value on soft ground. She has won on good ground but her trainer may consider the French Guineas a better option.

Andre Fabre has confirmed that High Celebrity will run at Newmarket and will not be having a prep race. The daughter of Invincible Spirit was not risked in the testing conditions this week and will hope to make it third-time-lucky in Suffolk next month. She was beaten at odds-on in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes in July and finished third to Tiggy Wiggy in the Cheveley Park Stakes last time.

Found reportedly had a temperature last month but is back on course for the Guineas where she is likely to be joined by Together Forever, winner of the Dubai Fillies’ Mile in October. She was runner-up to Found at the Curragh in August but improved throughout the season, winning her last three starts. The going was soft when she beat Agnes Stewart by half a length over a mile with Winters Moon just a nose away in third.

Aidan O’Brien has declared himself to be delighted with Together Forever who is currently a top price of 14-1 with Boylesports. Richard Hannon’s Tiggy Wiggy is freely available at 20-1 with question marks about her stamina while Lucida and Fadhayyil are also prominent in the ante-post market. The latter is going straight to Newmarket for veteran trainer Barry Hills following her second place in the Rockfel Stakes.