Dubai World Cup Preview

It’s Dubai World Cup weekend and the surface has been receiving as much attention as the leading contenders in the big race build-up.

After five years racing on a Tapeta surface, the decision was taken to switch back to a dirt track to attract the top American horses to Meydan. There was not a single American-trained runner in last year’s renewal but the move appears to have paid off with California Chrome set to start favourite.

Sheikh Hamdan has questioned the logic behind making the horse favourite, as no American horse has raced on the new surface as yet. Even though California Chrome has won on a range of dirt surfaces, the Sheikh feels that the surface at Meydan will be a new experience for last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner.

That has not deterred punters who see only one result on Saturday with Art Sherman’s four-year-old as short as 5-4 having been 4-1 just a couple of weeks ago. The chestnut ought to be in great shape for this after chasing home the smart Shared Belief in the San Antonio Invitational last month. Although his Triple Crown hopes ended in the Belmont, he did run a fine race when third to Bayern and Toast Of New York in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

It’s a shame that the runner-up could not be here to add to the quality of the race but Lea could make a race of it. William Mott trains the six-year-old son of First Samurai who was second in a Grade 1 at Gulfstream Park last month. He was attempting to win the race for a second consecutive year but could not get past Constitution.

Last year’s World Cup winner African Story bounced back to form when winning the Al Maktoum Challenge by a neck from Prince Bishop earlier this month. Last season he comfortably beat Mukhadram by two and three-quarter lengths and would have a chance if back in that kind of form. Prince Bishop renews rivalry but both Godolphin horses are now eight years of age.

There has been support for Japanese raider Epiphaneia, a close fifth to Gentildonna at Nakayama in December. He was going like a winner at the two furlong marker in that mile and a half contest so this drop in trip should improve his chances. He had previously won the Japan Cup impressively by four lengths from Just A Way.

Side Glance seems to have been around forever but Andrew Balding’s gelding is still only eight. He ran some fine races in Australia including finishing only half a length away in fourth in the Cox Plate. He has not got his head in front since winning the Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington in 2013.

With the value all taken about the favourite, it may be worth going each-way on Epiphaneia to land the prize for Japan and Christophe Soumillon.

Epiphaneia @8-1 BetVictor

Each-way 1/5 odds, 1,2,3

Cricket World Cup: NZ v South Africa – SF 1 Preview

[Tweet “Cricket World Cup Madness!”]As predicted, the four best teams in the Cricket World Cup have made it through to the semi-finals, and for the two of them competing in the tournament’s first semi-final, it could mean a first ever World Cup final.

New Zealand and South Africa head to a wet Eden Park in a bid to book a place in Melbourne’s World Cup showpiece against either Australia or India.  They’ll have a bleak day of unpredictable weather to contend with, as well as the significant expectation of success that both countries have placed on their players.  For New Zealand, that pressure has come about through a wealth of good form and an attractive brand of cricket.  The Black Caps have lost once in their last 13 matches and are riding a public wave of admiration only ever seen before at the Rugby World Cup in 2011.

South Africa on the other hand have always had that expectation.  They have simply never delivered.  So much so, that their World Cups are more synonymous with choking than they are with success.  They may have turned around their knockout fortune with an imperious win over Sri Lanka, but doubts will remain about their mettle if this one gets close.

Questions will also be asked of New Zealand’s fifth bowling option.  Corey Anderson and Grant Elliot are expected to perform the role with little tournament experience, while some might point to Ross Taylor’s strike rate and running between the wickets as trouble zones too.

Either way, the cauldron of Eden Park will get that much hotter in the final quarter of the game as pressure and expectation weigh heavily on the players minds.

The Last Time These Two Met

In a full series in early October (the earliest cricket has ever been played in a New Zealand summer), South Africa comfortably got the better of an experimental New Zealand side (Jimmy Neesham was opening).  They won the series 2-0 and were tracking well in the washed out Hamilton finale.  The teams have met once since then in a World Cup warm up match in Christchurch.  The Black Caps were at their devastating best in that match piling on 331 and bowling their opponents

The Teams

New Zealand (likely): 1 Brendon McCullum (capt), 2 Martin Gupill, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Grant Elliott, 6 Corey Anderson, 7 Luke Ronchi (wk), 8 Daniel Vettori, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Trent Boult, 11 Matt Henry

Adam Milne has been withdrawn from the World Cup because of a heel injury.  The ICC have okayed Matt Henry as a replacement and he is expected to make a shock first appearance in a straight replacement.

South Africa (likely): 1 Hashim Amla, 2 Quinton de Kock (wk), 3 Faf du Plessis, 4 AB de Villiers (capt), 5 Rilee Rossouw, 6 David Miller, 7 JP Duminy, 8 Dale Steyn, 9 Vernon Philander/Kyle Abbott, 10 Morne Morkel, 11 Imran Tahir

AB de Villiers has confirmed his entire squad is fit and available.  That means the selectors must only ponder over the third seam option.  Vernon Philander adds more with the bat (he was the second highest South African scorer in the World Cup warm up match between the two sides), whereas Kyle Abbot’s aggressiveness helped create the early pressure that Sri Lanka found it impossible to come back from.

The Key Players

Daniel Vettori – Eden Park is not an easy place for spin bowlers.  The two tiny straight boundaries are only an enticing strike away for most World Class batsman.  But as he proved against Australia earlier in the tournament, Vettori has the guile to do well at Kingsland’s concrete jungle.  In that game he successfully stalled the charge of David Warner and Shane Watson and essentially turned the game in New Zealand’s favour.  The challenge will be to do it again against AB de Villiers and co.

Hashim Amla – Just as Vettori likes Eden Park, Amla likes playing New Zealand in New Zealand.  In six games against the Black Caps on their own turf the elegant right-hander has managed 345 runs at 57.50.  He’s also had a relative quiet World Cup, save for his 159 versus Ireland, so he’s well and truly due to bag big runs.  His technique is arguably the best in his team’s lineup to counteract swing too; he plays the ball so late and can manoeuvre it anywhere with his freakishly supple wrists.  His role will be to ensure South Africa don’t lose early wickets and retain them for a late onslaught.

The Match Odds*

New Zealand – $2.00

South Africa – $1.82

*Courtesy of Ladbrokes Australia.

The Prediction

Before the tournament, we would have given this match to South Africa comfortably.  However, so good is New Zealand’s form it makes it awfully hard to bet against them.  When one player fails, another will stand up, and to man, the team believes.  That said, the 11 South African players are marginally better than the 11 Black Caps, and that will be decisive.  South Africa to get home by 2 wickets or 25 runs.

The Best Bets

Guptill answered his critics, why can’t Taylor do so as well.  Ross Taylor to Top Score @ $6.00

Guptil likes an over or so to get going.  Back South Africa to Have Highest Score After Over 1 @ $2.25

AB de Villers Top Batsman / Dale Steyn Top Bowler Comb0 @ $16.00

2015 Miami Open Preview

Formerly known as the Miami Masters, the newly-named ‘Miami Open presented by Itaύ’ gets underway on Wednesday, straight off the back of an entertaining tournament Indian Wells.

BNP Paribas Open Round-Up

The Paribas Open at Indian Wells concluded on Sunday, with Novak Djokovic continuing to demonstrate his supremacy on the men’s side with a three-set victory over Roger Federer in the final. The Serbian barely had to break sweat en-route to the final, winning each of his matches in two sets – defeating Marcos Baghdatis, Albert Ramos-Viñolas, John Isner and Andy Murray easily – and was even handed a walk-over against Bernard Tomic in the quarter-finals to make life very comfortable for him.

On the women’s side, Serena Williams wasn’t able to assert her dominance as she was forced to pull out of the tournament ahead of her semi-final with Simona Halep due to a knee injury. 24-year-old Halep – who is hoping to win her first major in 2015 after making vast progress in the last 18 months – went on to win the tournament, beating Jelena Jankovic in the final. Maria Sharapova, meanwhile, suffered a surprise fourth-round defeat to Flavia Pennetta, despite beating the returning Victoria Azarenka in straight sets in the previous round.

Men’s Preview

The big news coming into the Miami Open is that Roger Federer has said he will miss the tournament as he feels he needs a break from competition ahead of the upcoming clay season. That means Novak Djokovic’s biggest competition is likely to come from Andy Murray – although the Scot is going to need to vastly improve on his performance at Indian Wells in order to do that. Doubts continue to remain over Murray’s mental strength in the big games, and, particularly, whether he has a mental block against the Serb, something that was demonstrated as he buckled under the pressure despite leading in the Australian Open final in January. Murray has lost to Djokovic in each of their last six meetings.

Rafael Nadal still seems some way off peak form having suffered a shock quarter-final defeat to Milos Raonic at Indian Wells. The Spaniard will be especially determined to win the Miami Open having reached the final four times, but suffered defeat in each.

Unsurprisingly, Djokovic is the reigning champion here having won his fourth title in Miami in 2014. Andy Murray has also tasted success in Miami, winning in 2009 and 2013, but it’s hard to look past the in-form Serbian here.

Women’s Preview

After pulling out in the semi-finals at Indian Wells, it looks highly doubtful that Serena Williams will recover sufficiently in time to take part here – especially considering the unforgiving hard court. It will be a shame for the world number one – who has won here a record seven times – but it opens the competition right up.

Simona Halep will be an obvious contender once again, as the 23-year-old looks to claim her 12th WTA title – having already gathered three in 2015 alone. Maria Sharapova is sure to be riled up though, having crashed out in the fourth round at the Paribas Open – she is a renowned fighter and the world number two will be desperate to close the gap on the – almost-certainly – absent Williams.

Maria Sharapova to win – 9/2 at 888sport

2015 Miami Open Schedule

The tournament commences on Wednesday 25th March at the Tennis Center at Crandon Park, Miami, with the women’s final coming on Saturday 4th April, and the men’s a day later on Sunday 5th April.

Premiership Preview – Sunday 22nd March

Manchester City finally managed to apply a bit of pressure to Premiership leaders Chelsea by beating ten-man West Brom 3-0 on Saturday. The gap is now three points but the Blues have two games in hand starting with a trip to struggling Hull City on Sunday.

Chelsea boss Jose Mourinho reports no serious injury concerns ahead of the match but Hull are without striker Nikija Jelavic. That could be a big blow to their hopes of avoiding the drop. Steve Bruce’s side are currently just three points above eighteenth placed Burnley. A win would put them level with Everton but they have struggled against the top sides this season. Tottenham, Southampton and Man City all won at the KC Stadium and Chelsea are odds-on to continue the sequence.

If there is some value to be found, it may be with Eden Hazard in the goal scorer markets. The brilliant Belgian has opened the scoring in three of the last four away games for the Blues. He is also the designated penalty-taker and Chelsea are long overdue a favourable award.

The big match of the day is the clash between Liverpool and Manchester United at Anfield. Both sides are in contention for a top four spot and automatic Champions League qualification. Liverpool really need a win to continue the momentum of their charge up the table and are the only unbeaten side in the Premiership in 2015.

United played well in the first half against Tottenham last week and raced into a 3-0 lead. Wayne Rooney was in fine form that day and will be hoping to end a run of nine games at Anfield without scoring. Louis van Gaal has been rather harshly treated in the media despite taking United into third place and a win here would be a massive result. Neither defence looked secure at the start of the season but they have tightened up a lot recently. It could be worth taking a punt on a 0-0 draw at around 9-1.

The final game of the day is at Loftus Road as QPR try to drag Everton into the relegation battle. The Toffees eased their fears with a comfortable win over Newcastle last weekend but were hammered in the Europa League on Thursday. This looks another tricky one to call and the draw makes most appeal at 5-2.

Liverpool v Man United DRAW @5-2 Bet365

Liverpool 0 Man United 0 @10-1 Coral

Eden Hazard to score first @6-1 Paddy Power

Eden Hazard to score and Chelsea win @11-4 Paddy Power

QPR v Everton DRAW @5-2 Boylesports

Cricket World Cup: New Zealand v West Indies – QF 4 Review

The Black Caps were handsomely rewarded for their selection loyalty to opener Martin Guptill when the much maligned right-hander plundered a New Zealand best 237*, to guide his side to  victory over the West Indies and into the Cricket World Cup semi-finals.

Guptill was constantly under fire prior to the tournament; criticised for his slow starts and inconsistent form, he was fortunate that his team were winning games, buying him more time, and affording him the luxury of an extended time in the side to work on his game.  It paid off in spectacular fashion tonight at Wellington’s Cake Tin stadium.  Guptill’s double is the first by a New Zealand batsman, and comfortably tops Chris Gayle’e earlier tournament effort as the highest ever World Cup score.

It was breathtaking viewing.  Straight drives, powerful leg side flicks and exceptional square cuts personified the impressive control Nuptial had on proceedings, and set the tone for New Zealand’s 393 for 6,  Facing the first and last ball of the innings, Guptill got his runs in conventional fashion.  No reverse sweeps, switch hits, paddles or scoops, just excellent cricket shots perfectly placed and timed well.  The 237 featured over 160 runs in boundaries with 24 fours and 11 sixes to Guptill’s name.

To an extent the fabulous innings masked another bizarre Ross Taylor innings – his tournament strike rate is now languishing at just 60.88 – and papered over some Brendon McCullum form cracks too.  Mccallum departure early again, this time for just 12, but it should have been Guptill departing early.  Third ball of the game Marlon Samuels put down a catchable chance, that would go on to cost them some 233 runs.  (Not quite the most expensive drop in ODI history as Rohit Sharma was also put down on 4 when he amassed 264).  Williamson solidified for a moment but then fell to an Andre Russell slower ball for 33.  That brought Taylor to the crease, who is now a major worry ahead of their South African semi-final showdown at Eden Park on Tuesday.  He scratched his way to a useful 40 in the circumstances, but looked afraid of getting out, afraid of trying to up the ante, and was part of a host of running between the wicket mishaps.  The running was eventually his downfall as a misunderstanding led to his run out, but also allows the Black Caps to insert Corey Anderson, Grant Elliot, Luke Ronchi and Dan Vettori who all pitched in.

Guptill’s effort was only marginally short of the entire West Indies team effort as they came out swinging in an aggressive pursuit of the ominous total. Perhaps thinking it was still a Pool game and net run rate was important the Windies went at better than 8 runs an over throughout.  Despite regular wickets the West Indies to a man swung wildly at anything loose in a tactic that unsettled New Zealand and saw them concede far too many boundaries.  Even the ever reliable Vettori took some tap.  Gayle’s 61 was a highlight, as were Trent Boult’s four wickets and Vettori’s spectacular boundary rope catch to dismiss Marlon Samuels.

None of those players could overshadow man of the match Martin Guptill though.  New Zealand make another World Cup semi-final but for the first time enter it with a real belief that they could win it.  They head to Auckland for Tuesday’s encounter along with the three other strongest teams in the tournament.  Cricket fans desperately hoping for semi-finals that are closer than the quarters were.

New Zealand 393 for 6 (Guptill 237*, Taylor 3-71) beat West Indies 250 (Gayle 61, Boult 4-44) by 143 runs

Super Rugby Round 6 Preview

Check out the Super Rugby Round 6 Preview below with team news, odds, predictions and analysis.

Highlanders v Hurricanes

Highlanders – $1.87

Hurricanes – $1.77

Two New Zealand franchises in strong form face off in the first of the Super Rugby Round 6 action.  The Highlanders host the unbeaten Hurricanes at Forsyth Barr in what is set to be one of the closest games of the round.  The halfback matchup between All Blacks TJ Perenara and Aaron Smith may ultimately decide the battle of the H’s, as both teams turn to their number 9 live wires to spark the majority of their attack.  Speaking of individual battles, the lookalike Smith’s (Ben and Conrad) are also set to feature heavily for the respective teams.  We’ll go for Hurricanes in this one, by 1-12.

Rebels v Lions

Rebels – $1.45

Lions – $2.31

A shock win against the Blues was followed up by a pasting at the hands of the Crusaders in the Lions’ Australasian tour matches so far.  The contrasting performances make it difficult to predict which Lions team will turn up, especially faring off against the equally unpredictable Melbourne Rebels unit.  The Rebels did just enough against the Force next week; the match coming down to who had the most nerve in a tense finish.  We’ll go for a similar winning margin, 1-12, in favour of the Lions.

Crusaders v Cheetahs

Crusaders – $1.08

Cheetahs – $8.25

Israel Dagg has the biggest point to prove for the Crusaders as he returns at fullback for the seven time Super Rugby champions.  Dagg has shaken off injury concerns in a bid to maintain his All Black spot in the face of stiff competition from Ben Smith.  His return cancels out the resting of another influential All Black, Richie McCaw.  McCaw’s resting comes at the most strategic time given the Crusaders are unbackable favourites at just a smidgen over $1.  They beat the Cheetahs by 13+ on Saturday night.

Bulls v Force

Bulls – $1.11

Force – $6.95

In another example of a heavily backed team being expected to easily dispatch weaker opponents, the Bulls are the preferred team this time round.  Loftus Versfeld is always a difficult proposition for any touring team, and the Force have to make the trip with a solitary win and inconsistent form.  The solitary win came in Round 1 so its been a barren run of form ever since.  The Bulls have got better and better as the tournament has progressed, and are our pick to win the South African conference.  They’ll win this one by 13+.  Bulls 13+.

Sharks v Chiefs

Sharks – $1.72

Chiefs – $2.15

The match of the round features two enterprising teams near the peak of their games.  Firstly, the Chiefs, who were exceptional last week in beating the Stormers in their first match of their South African tour.  The Sharks just started to find some mojo after a crushing victory over the Cheetahs last week.  Expect the ball to get plenty of air in an exciting match with both teams promising running rugby.  The impressive wing duo of James Lowe and Bryce Heem continue to keep ex-All Black Hosea Gear on the sideline, and will probably cross the line for more tries this week too.

Waratahs v Brumbies

Waratahs – $1.72

Brumbies – $2.15

The Australian derby to close out the round features an impressive attacking team packed to the brim with pace and power, against a disciplined defensive unit without any real fear, but plenty of grunt.  Michael Chieka has at his disposable a quality collection of outside backs led by one of the competing best Israel Folau.  He’ll need to find a way to penetrate the best defence in the competition (the Brumbies having conceded 40 points less than any other side), and start putting some pressure on the wild card teams currently holding knockout spots.  We prefer the Brumbies in this one, also by 1-12.