Cricket World Cup Day 27 Preview

Not long now until the World Cup starts to get a little more interesting.  Until then, England and New Zealand are predicted to score comfortable wins in Hamilton and Sydney respectively.

Check out our review of today’s actions and the most pertinent questions heading into it:

The Three Big Questions?

Should Ireland be playing test cricket?

Ireland have again led the way of associate nations in this World Cup with a string of decent performances and three wins.  They’ll be pushing for a quarterfinal spot when they meet Pakistan on Sunday.  Whether they make the knockout stage or not they deserve to press their case for test status.  They certainly have the experience, the facilities and the talent to compete in the shorter format, but questions remain about their ability to last five days.  All but three of their squad have played for English counties.  Heck, even their number 11 averages 31.25 in first class cricket.  We support their inclusion on the basis that they start in a second tier comp and are not subject to top team humiliation (even though that’s how every team starts their test journey).

Are New Zealand disadvantaged having every pool game at home?

It sounds silly, but some commenters have argued that New Zealand will struggle with the bigger grounds and different surfaces in Australia if they reach the World Cup final.  Stepping out to a packed MCG could be overwhelming if they haven’t had to experience defending a total on the big ground, or been subjected to the inevitable sheep shagging jokes on the boundary.  Luckily, the conditions won’t be too dissimilar, and home advantage when the public is riding such a wave is more advantageous than not.

Shane Watson or Mitchell Marsh?

Watto will rightly play in the middle order for the rest of the tournament barring injury.  His experience is worth more than Marsh and offers a better bowling option.  Marsh did take five wickets in Australia’s opener but has since been ineffective with the ball in hand.  He must make way for Watson who revived his career with his knock against Sri Lanka.

Today’s Matchups

1. New Zealand v Bangladesh, Seddon Park (Hamilton – fine weather all day), starts 2:00pm local time

New Zealand – $1.12

Bangladesh – $6.25

You might not believe this but Bangladesh have won all of the last seven completed one day internationals against New Zealand.  Granted all of them were in Bangladesh, and when New Zealand were not at home, unbeaten in a World Cup. It’s still a damn fine record and will actually take some good cricket to put a stop to.  Shakib Al Hasan is the key to Bangladesh hopes.  He has an excellent record against the Black Caps and was surprisingly quiet against England.  Expect him to open the bowling to counteract the threat of Brendon McCullum.

Adam Milne is the only injury concern for New Zealand.  He may be replaced by Mitchell McClenaghan.

2. England v Afghanistan, Sydney Cricket Ground (Sydney – cloudy with chance of rain), starts 2:30pm local time

England – $7.00

Afghanistan – $1.10

Home-bound England must conjure up the energy to see off Afghanistan to end their World Cup campaign in style.  The English selectors may be tempted to usher in a host of new faces to plan for a post-enquiry future. That could mean more game time for Alex Hales and Chris Jordan.  James Tredwell could also feature on the traditionally turning Sydney pitch.

Afghanistan will also want to finish strongly.  Their quicks provide their best chance of springing a surprise, but they may be nullified by an unhelpful wicket.

Today’s Multi

The Shock “Bangladesh and Afghanistan Will Win” Mutli

Bangladesh outright at $6.25 + Afghanistan to Win (the toss) at $1.91 = $11.94

Odds available at William Hill Australia.

 

Cricket World Cup Day 26 Recap

Not for the first time in this Cricket World Cup, AB de Villiers stole the show and guided his country to an easy win.  De Villiers crossed 400 runs for the tournament in top scoring with 99 to see his side beat UAE by 146 runs.

South Africa’s win guaranteeing them a place in the quarterfinals – more than likely facing Sri Lanka in Sydney.

Day 26 Results

South Africa v UAE

UAE’s bizarre decision to bowl first ultimately came back to haunt them as they let South Africa amass 341 in their 50 overs.  Admittedly, it wasn’t the 400 that South Africa had mangled against the West Indies and Ireland, but that was probably due to the slowness of the surface rather than any bowling feats.

They did account for Hashim Amla early.  He was out in just the third over looking to force the ball of the back foot.  They also cottoned on to the strategy that most teams should be using and kept liability Quintin de Kock in for 45 balls.  He is so woefully out of form that leaving him out there is one of the only chances to keep South Africa under wraps.  De Kock scratched around for 26 but his demise brought the arrival of de Villiers.

As he so often does, he started tamely.  Scoring off most balls he faced and collecting the information on the pitch and the bowlers before exploding.  He eventually fell one shy of a century, but had already added the requisite impetus to the innings, which was expertly finished by Farhaan Behardien.  The UAE bowlers were their own worst enemies at times.  Conceding no balls that turned into free hits, and failing to stick to a set length.  The spell of Mohammad Tauqir was the glaring exception.  The old fashioned off-spinner was super effective on a well suited wicket.

Rilee Rossouw and David Miller also chipped in with fast paced knocks.  Setting a total hasn’t been an issue for South Africa in this World Cup or in the past few years of ODI cricket, chasing has, so there are still some question marks over their ability to cope with pressure despite de Villers believing they are still the best team in the tournament.

UAE’s batting effort was particularly sedate.  One-sided associate chases often turn into survival and practice cricket rather than aggressive pursuits of unrealistic targets.  That’s completely understandable on account of the experience that needs to be gained and filtered through World Cricket.  It occurred here too, as Swapnil Patil and Shaiman Anwar batted plenty of time to see the UAE through to 195.

The United Arab Emirates side needs to find the form that saw them get close to beating Ireland and Zimbabwe if they are to compete with the West Indies in Napier on Sunday; South Africa on to the quarters.

South Africa 341 for 6 (De Villiers 99, Behardien 64*, Naveed 3-63) beat UAE 195 (Patil 57*, Anwar 39, Morkel 2-23) by 146 runs

Cheltenham Preview – Friday 13th March

It’s Gold Cup day at Cheltenham and we look set for a thrilling renewal. If there are any doubts about the quality, there is at least quantity and most punters would rather watch a competitive race with 17 runners than an odds-on favourite in a small field.

Silviniaco Conti supporters will be hoping for third time lucky after falling in 2013 and fading up the hill last year. We will never know whether he would have won had he not tipped up three out but it is difficult to make a case about him not liking the track. He did everything right last year but didn’t quite last home.

The bookmakers are taking a chance at 5-1 about him. We already have Djakadam tipped at ante-post odds of 16-1 but his inexperience may count against him while Lord Windermere will probably run his best race of the season. I also fancy Holywell to post a career best as he loves this meeting.

The action starts with the Triumph Hurdle and we were on Top Notch at 16-1 some weeks ago. I’m pleased that the owners are letting him run despite also having the hot favourite in Peace And Co. I also like Pain Au Chocolat and Devilment at big prices in a fascinating race. Very few of these have actually met in the trials so it is really a shot in the dark.

The County Hurdle is notoriously difficult to sort out and a very appropriate winner would be Sort It Out. He is one of three JP McManus runners along with Waxies Dargle and Princely Conn. The latter is the mount of AP McCoy while Waxies Dargle fell in a big handicap last time and has Paul Carberry in the saddle. Quick Jack will probably start favourite and should run well for Tony Martin.

I’ve been a fan of Value At Risk for the Albert Bartlett for some time so shouldn’t really desert him now. My only concern is the quicker ground but the same applies to most of these. The Henderson horses, Out Sam and Carache Apache, are attractively priced and I wouldn’t put you off either of them.

It will be interesting to see how Sheikh Fahad’s new purchase Current Event gets on in the Foxhunter but I’m siding with Nina Carberry here with On The Fringe. Much of this week has been about Willie Mullins and he can strike again with Roi Des Francs in the Martin Pipe Hurdle. Everyone will be cheering for AP on Ned Buntline in the finale but Blood Cotil is tough and consistent and can close out the meeting for Mullins in style.

New customers only – Racebet 10-1 Nicky Henderson to win 1.30 (max. £5 stake)

1.30 Top Notch @16-1* Ante-post

2.05 Sort It Out @14-1 Bet365

2.40 Value At Risk @12-1 Paddy Power

3.20 Djakadam @16-1 *Ante-post

4.00 On The Fringe @8-1 Ladbrokes

4.40 Roi Des Francs @9-2 Bet365

5.15 Blood Cotil @10-1 Bet365

Cheltenham Gold Cup Preview

A large field is set to go to post for the Cheltenham Gold Cup on Friday, the feature event of the festival. Rank outsider River Choice is a possible absentee but that would still leave 17 to face the starter.

Silviniaco Conti has been favourite for most of the season and it is surprising that bookmakers are offering as high as 5-1 about the gelding. It is true that he has been beaten in this race twice before, falling in 2013 and fading in the final 150 yards to finish fourth last year. Trainer Paul Nicholls is confident that he has him in perfect condition and a Wednesday treble for the stable has boosted confidence still further.

We tipped Djakadam at 16-1 in our ante-post preview and it looks as though he could start at around half that price. The bare form of his Thyestes Chase victory is not good enough to win this but he has bags of potential and hails from the in-form Mullins stable.

Lord Windermere and Holywell are our next best as they both tend to peak in the spring. Lord Windermere has won the RSA Chase and Gold Cup on his last two visits and he has done enough this year to suggest he can finish in the money at least. Davy Russell rides this course superbly and reminded everyone of that with a double on Wednesday.

I am not convinced that Many Clouds and Road To Riches will enjoy the conditions. There were some fast times on Thursday, notably from Uxizandre in the Ryanair Chase, and both horses have shown their best form with plenty of give in the ground. I am not a fan of novices running in the Gold Cup, although Coneygree does jump like an old pro. Good luck to the Mark Bradstock team with their ambitious tilt at the top prize in steeplechasing. Carlingford Lough will come in for support as he is the last ride in the race for Tony McCoy. He jumped poorly here last season and I have my reservations about him.

There is usually a good run from an old stager in the Gold Cup and there are several likely suspects this year. Hardly anyone has mentioned 2013 winner Bobs Worth so there is absolutely no pressure on Barry Geraghty’s mount while On His Own has managed to repeat last year’s tremendous run but could be lit up on the day. And of course there is always The Giant Bolster! Second, fourth and third in previous years, could he have another trick up his sleeve?

Verdict

  1. Silviniano Conti 5-1 (888Sport)
  2. Djakadam 15-2 (William Hill)
  3. Holywell (11-1 William Hill)
  4. Lord Windermere (18-1 Paddy Power)

Cheltenham blog – McCoy savours Ryanair Chase glory

Tony McCoy stole the headlines on day 3 of the Cheltenham festival with a pillar-to-post victory aboard 16-1 shot Uxizandre in the Ryanair Chase.

McCoy, soon to be crowned champion jockey for the 20th time, had endured a couple of frustrating days but set out like a man on a mission on the gelding trained by Alan King. Uxizandre was second at this meeting last year and went on to win at Aintree. He had beaten Simply Ned and Dodging Bullets here in November but lost his way since. King fitted a visor for the first time here and it clearly had the desired effect.

McCoy admitted afterwards that he felt Uxizandre had gone to fast to keep up the gallop but he seemed to relax coming down the hill and had plenty in reserve to hold the well-backed Ma Filleule. It was a 31st festival winner for McCoy but he may not be finished just yet. He has five rides on the final day including Hargam (Triumph Hurdle), Carlingford Lough (Gold Cup) and Ned Buntline (AP McCoy Grand Annual).

Latest Offers

A reasonable assessment of the festival so far would be day 1 to the punters, day 2 all square, day 3 to the bookmakers. With the smallest field on offer on Friday being seventeen, I suspect that this will be the toughest day yet for punters.

Any way of gaining a small advantage is welcome and we have kept you updated on various offers throughout the week. Racebets have been making some generous offers to attract new customers all week. If you still haven’t done so, tomorrow they will give you 10-1 about Nicky Henderson training the winner of the Triumph Hurdle (maximum £5 bet).

That gives you the favourite Peace And Co, Tony McCoy’s mount Hargam and Betcirca’s each-way fancy Top Notch. The Mullins pair and Beltor are the most obvious threats to spoil the party but it could give you a very nice £50 balance in your account!

Market Movers

Quick Jack 2.05 (County Hurdle) 7-1 Stan James

Black Hercules 2.40 (Albert Bartlett) 4-1 Bet365

On The Fringe 4.0 (Foxhunter) 8-1 Paddy Power

Roi Des Francs 4.40 (Martin Pipe) 9-2 Bet365

Ned Buntline 5.20 (AP McCoy Grand Annual) 5-1 William Hill

Cricket World Cup: Day 25 Recap

Kumar Sangakkara became the first player in the history of one-day international cricket to score four consecutive hundreds with another classy display against Scotland.  Sangakarra has now racked up 496 tournament runs in 6 digs, including tons against Bangladesh, Australia, England and Scotland.  His and Tilakaratne Dilshan’s hundreds were enough to see them past Scotland by 148 runs on Day 25 of the World Cup.  Here’s a rundown of the action:

Day 25 Results

Sri Lanka v Scotland

As soon as Angelo Matthews won the toss, the cricketing world began to believe that Sangakkara could do the unthinkable.  And when Thirimanne was dismissed with 44 overs remaining, the chance of Sangakkara scoring four hundreds back to back was almost inevitable.  To his credit Sangakkara still batted for his team, still scored his runs at a rate of 130 per 100 balls faced, and sure enough got to three figures.

Tilakaratne also scored a hundred, largely forgotten though, next to Sanga’s effort.  The pair put on a masterful stand of 195, that was capped off with a rapid 51 from Matthews, and saw Sri Lanka through to an unbeatable 363/9.

Sangakkara as he so deserves, will get most of the credit.  He becomes the first player to score four hundreds at a World Cup, and has surely announced his retirement some 30 years too soon.  This guy could bat on for years and still chalk up the personal milestones as frequently as he does.

Scotland were probably in awe too.  That might explain their struggle to get close to the 363.  That or 363 is a huge total and they never really had a chance.  Kyle Coetzer, one player who might’ve given the total a run was out second ball of the innings and from there Sri Lanka just eased through the motions.  Freddie Coleman and Preston Mommsen scored half centuries to add respectability to the total, but no more.

We thought Mommsen was in for a big performance, and although he didn’t pay out, his innings was one of the few standouts in another disappointing batting effort from the Scots.  Kulasekara and Chameera were the most successful bowlers with three wickets apiece.

Kumar’s quest for 5 begins on 18 March against a yet to be determined opponent.

Sri Lanka 363 for 9 (Sangakkara 124, Dilshan 104, Mathews 51, Davey 3-63) beat Scotland 215 (Coleman 70, Mommsen 60, Kulasekara 3-20, Chameera 3-51) by 148 runs