PGA Tour: Valspar Championship Preview

Betcirca enjoyed a returned to tipping form last week when we successfully predicted DJ would clean up at Cadillac. While, Johnson is only the second winner we’ve picked all year, we’re proud because it should have been wrapped up by J.B Holmes.

Nevertheless, another week, another chance, and this week its the Valspar Championship in Florida.

Golf’s unofficial road to the Masters, the Florida Swing is in full…well, swing, and the Valspar Championship, much like Augusta will suit crisp ball strikers and creative short game exponents.

The Course

Innisbrook Resort (known as Copperhead) is unlike other stops on the swing.  It’s significantly tighter than most, and features plenty of undulation – a trait not always seen on Resort style courses.  Players who position the ball well of the tee, or alternatively, can shape it either way will flourish at Innisbrook, as the course features plenty of double dog legs.  It is 7,340 yards, par 71.

The Sound Bites

“I don’t mind taking a drug test at all. When I’m sitting out here Thursday and Friday thinking I’m going to get drug tested, holding my (urine) for two hours, it affects your golf game.” – The issue of drug testing has been swirling and John Daly is clearly irked.

“John Daly has never been targeted for testing and his claim that players know when they will be tested is simply not true” – The PGA Tour responded.

The Defending Champion

John Senden was one of six Australians to win on the PGA Tour last season.  He took out the Valspar Championship by a single shot over Kevin Na.  Interestingly, Na has been tipped heavily to feature again this year.  Sender roared into contention last year with a third round 64, for his first win anywhere in eight years.

The Contenders*

Adam Scott – $15.00

Jordan Spieth – $16.50

Henrik Stenson – $17.50

Justin Rose – $36.00

Ryan Moore – $44.00

Will MacKenzie – $130.00

*Valspa Championship odds courtesy of Betfair Australia.

The Winner

Adam Scott showed enough with the short putter last week to suggest he’ll still compete and this course suits ball-strikers; Spieth has bounced back from a missed cut with two top 10’s and a top 20 in his last three events;  Stenson enjoyed a T4 last week despite obvious rust; MacKenzie is the outsider after a strong week in Peurto Rico.  We like Stenson the most.

Rugby League: NRL Round 1 Review

The first week of NRL action featured plenty of rust, and more than a few surprises.

The Rabbitohs, Roosters and Panthers look head and shoulders over the others in the competition, but it’s unfair to make rash comments like that this early in the season.  It’s not rash to quit Fantasy NRL after one week though.  598 points (including 11 to Milford and 20 to Josh Jackson) warrants quitting.

Here’s how the round played out:

Brisbane Broncos (6) v South Sydney Rabbitohs (36)

The year’s season opener was an unexpected boilover as last years champions eased past a disappointing Brisbane side at Suncorp.  Led by the astute direction and expert goal kicking of Adam Reynolds, the Bunnies were the better side throughout and chalked up their first two points without a hint of fuss.

Glenn Stewart’s ball playing abilities added versatility to an already strong side, indicating that the Rabbits will again be tough to beat.  Test players Dylan Walker and Greg Inglis both got on the scoresheet, while the Broncs were left to rue ill-discipline and a stuttering halves pairing of Ben Hunt and Anthony Milford – desperately lacking cohesion in their first outing together.

Parramatta Eels (42) v Manly Sea Eagles (12)

Anthony Watmough’s grudge match against his old club was not nearly as brutal as experts predicted.  Instead, the Eels overwhelmingly got the better of the injury hit Sea Eagles, who appear to be on the brink of an internal halves crisis with rumours swirling around both Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans.

The enigmatic Chris Sandow was brilliant for the Eels, as was Semi Radradra who bagged the first hat-trick of the season.  Will Hopoate took over from Jarryd Hayne with aplomb; leading raids into Sea Eagles territory often, and showing some positive signs with his defensive reads.

In a word, Manly were, useless.

Newcastle Knights (24) v New Zealand Warriors (14)

More of the same for the frustrating New Zealand outfit.  The Warriors butchered a nice start, and a dominating share of possession to go scoreless in the second half and gift Newcastle two competition points.

The Warriors had positives in the performances of youngsters Kata, Lolohea, and Lisone, but will be dreadfully disappointed with their poor completion rate, poor fifth tackle kicking options and soft one and one defence.

For the Knights, Joey Leilua was dangerous with ball in hand and Tyler Randell played nicely from the bench.  They’ll still feel as though they escaped with points from this one though.

Gold Coast Titans (18) v Wests Tigers (19)

The Titans put to the side and incredibly challenging buildup, and a host of unavailable players to surprise many with a  fighting effort adjacent the West Tigers.  Pat Richards slotted a late field goal to complete a greedy individual haul for him and a win for his side.

Earlier, the James’ were dominating the scoring.  James Roberts had two tries for the Titans,  Ryan James also crossed the line, and walking sick note James Tedesco dotted over for the Tigers.

Robbie Farah and Aaron Woods were in the thick of everything for the visitors, while the Titans just want their players to return from a long pool game.

North Queensland Cowboys (4) v Sydney Roosters (28)

We predicted a Roosters win, but the manner and margin still surprised us.  That’s factoring in many people’s predictions that 2015 is the year of the Cowboys.

The Roosters proved Sonny Bill Williams wasn’t the key to their NRL success, with a complete team performance capped off by a memorable Mitchell Pearce showing.  They still look an excellent side and with Guerra and Cordner picking up the SBW slack, they will go along way.

The Cowboys shouldn’t play this badly again; Jonathan Thurston certainly won’t.  So don’t hit the panic button just yet if you’re a Cowboys fan or have Thurston in your fantasy team.

Penrith Panthers (24) v Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (18)

Penrith were incredible for 60 minutes; the Bulldogs were good for twenty minutes.  The net result was a close win to the Panthers in a difficult first round match.

After building their squad, their experience and confidence over the past two season under Ivan Clearly, the Panthers are now genuine title contenders, and displayed their credentials in an efficient first 60 minutes.  They’ll be smarting they gave the Bulldogs a sniff but pleased they withheld the fast finishers.

Individually, James Segeyaro has carried on his form from last season’s playoffs; George Jennings justified the hype; and for the Doggies, Brett Morris was impressive in joining his brother at the club.

Cronulla Sharks (20) v Canberra Raiders (24)

Canberra’s win was a little surprising to tell the truth, but thoroughly deserved in a close encounter with the Cronulla Sharks.  Jack Wighton was the star of the show, both for his electric running that led to two tries and his almighty haymaker aimed at Sosaia Feki.  The young fullback was involved in everything, and although lucky to escape sanction for the punch (don’t the NRL have a one punch rule?), his performance suggests he’ll be a Dally M smokey this year.

Fifita and Gallend were excellent for the Sharks as they so often are, however, Ben Barba failed to find opportunities in the number 6 jersey.  The kindest thing we can say about Barba’s performance was that he was on the field.  I’m calling the fullback to number 6 failed experiments – the Lockyer curse.

St George-Illawarra Dragons (4) v Melbourne Storm (12)

Just the 16 points in a pretty dour encounter at Jubilee Oval.

The less said about this game the better.  Although we were pleased for former hotel porter Eto Nabuli crossing for a try on debut.

The statistic that sums up how much of an arm wrestle this match was is the tackle count of the two hookers; Cameron Smith had 48; Mitch Rein had 47.

Don’t expect either of these sides to set your pulse racing this season.

Cheltenham Preview – Thursday 12th March

The World Hurdle takes centre stage at Cheltenham on Thursday with Paul Nicholls hoping to add to Wednesday’s impressive haul. The Ditcheat trainer interrupted the domination of Willie Mullins by firing a 1430-1 treble including Dodging Bullets in the Champion Chase.

His World Hurdle hopes are Zarkandar and Saphir Su Rheu and I just prefer the claims of the latter. He progressed through the handicap last season and narrowly beat Whisper in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. That horse went on to win the Coral Cup and followed up in the Aintree Hurdle. Nicky Henderson has endured a miserable two days but I am hoping that Whisper can give him something to smile about.

The action starts at 1.30 and Coral are offering 5-1 about the favourite Vautour finishing in the first three here (new customers only). If you don’t already have a Coral account it may be worth considering to a maximum £10 stake. I think Ptit Zig looks the more attractively priced at 4-1 and he could provide Nicholls with his fourth winner of the meeting. He was unlucky to fall at Ascot last time but has jumped around here safely before and should go well.

The Pertemps Final looks wide open and there has been good money for Edeymi and Call The Cops this week. It does not usually pay to back horses that win handicaps impressively on the eve of the festival so Henderson’s horse might not be great value despite carrying only a 5lbs penalty. I am going to side with Big Easy although the handicapper keeps putting him up for being beaten. The Cesarewitch winner has a touch of class and could make the frame.

Johns Spirit loves it round here and looks worth a bet at 11-1 with Paddy Power in the Ryanair Chase. Don Cossack and Balder Succes are the pick on form but Johns Spirit can cut them down late on if Richie McLernon does not go too soon.

The last two races look almost impossible to solve but David Pipe’s Monetaire has a chance in the Kim Muir. He has only raced twice since arriving from France and did well to finish third here after a couple of mistakes on his first run. Lucinda Russell could give Scotland a winner in the last with Clondaw Knight who lost a shoe when beaten last time.

1.30 Vautour @5-1 Coral to finish in first three (new customers only – max. £10)

1.30 Ptit Zig @4-1 BetVictor

2.05 Big Easy @12-1 Totesport (each-way)

2.40 Johns Spirit @11-1 Paddy Power (each-way)

3.20 Saphir Du Rheu @6-1 Paddy Power

3.20 Whisper @11-1 William Hill (each-way)

4.00 Monetaire @8-1 Betfred

4.40 Clondaw Knight @20-1 BetVictor (each-way)

Cheltenham blog – Dodging Bullets wins Champion Chase

After the excitement of the Willie Mullins big four on Tuesday, there was a more relaxed mood at Cheltenham on Wednesday. The highlight of the day was the Queen Mother Champion Chase with three former winners up against the promising Dodging Bullets.

The race was robbed of one key ingredient when Champagne Fever was withdrawn and, with all due to respect to Dodging Bullets, it turned into a bit of an anti-climax. There had always been a big question mark as to whether or not Sprinter Sacre could recapture his best form and he was never travelling with his usual zest.

He was eventually pulled up by Barry Geraghty while Sire de Grugy also ran very flat, running on at one pace into fourth. All credit to Dodging Bullets who has done exactly what Sire de Grugy did a year before, winning the key trials and confirming his status as the best two-miler of the season.

Nicholls had earlier won the Coral Cup when the French import Aux Ptits Soins held off Zabana, Activial and Taglietelle in a driving finish. Don Poli ran out a comfortable winner of the RSA Chase but I don’t imagine that there will be a stampede to take the miserly 6-1 offered about him for next year’s Gold Cup. He looks a bit of a character and was continuously pricking his ears up the home straight. Kings Palace once again failed to fire on the big day and finished a remote sixth for David Pipe.

Nicholls went on to complete a 1430-1 treble when Qualando won the Fred Winter Hurdle from stable companion Bouvreuil. Bookmakers will probably deny it but they ought to be well ahead on the second day with only two successful favourites. Many of their big race offers were on Sire de Grugy and Sprinter Sacre and they will all stay firmly in their satchels.

Coral New Customer Offer

Coral are offering new customers 5-1 about Vautour finishing in the first three in Thursday’s opening race. This is limited to a maximum stake of £10. He looks likely to start at around the 9-4 mark as he bids to add to the Mullins winning tally.

Market Movers

Thursday – Edeymi (Pertemps Final) 8-1 Bet365

Thursday – Un Ace (Festival Plate) 10-1 William Hill

Friday – Quick Jack (County Hurdle) 10-1 Sportingbet

Cheltenham World Hurdle Preview

Paul Nicholls served up a big-race double at Cheltenham on Wednesday with victories in the Coral Cup and Queen Mother Champion Chase. That sets him up perfectly for Thursday’s Grade 1 World Hurdle where he saddles the first two in the betting, Zarkandar and Saphir Du Rheu. Here is our big race guide.

Zarkandar (5-1 888Sport)

Zarkandar won the Triumph Hurdle here in 2011 and was trained for the Champion Hurdle for the following two seasons. He did finish fourth to Hurricane Fly in 2013 but ran as though already needing a greater test of stamina. Since moving up in distance he has won in France and finished a close second to Reve de Sivola at Ascot. Many observers felt that he downed tools on the run-in that day and Noel Fehily will be keen to arrive as late as possible here.

Saphir Du Rheu (5-1 Paddy Power)

Nicholls had intended running Saphir Du Rheu in the RSA Chase but a fall at Kempton persuaded connections to put his chasing career on hold. A victory in the Cleeve Hurdle suggests that they made the right decision and he looks to have a major chance.

Whisper (11-1 Ladbrokes)

It has not been a great week so far for Nicky Henderson but he could receive a tonic if Whisper recaptures his best form here. He was a game winner at the festival last year in the Coral Cup before winning the Aintree Hurdle. The ground should give him every chance of staying this extended trip and he looks good each-way value.

Lieutenant Colonel (9-1 Ladbrokes)

The Gigginstown House Stud colours are carried by the six-year-old Lieutenant Colonel, trained by Sandra Hughes. He has got the better of Jetson at Fairyhouse and Leopardstown and has been backed at big prices in recent days.

Un Temps Pour Tout (12-1 Ladbrokes)

David Pipe’s Un Temps Pour Tout has not quite lived up to his enormous reputation but was not beaten far in the Cleeve Hurdle. He looks like a future chaser in the making and would probably have appreciated a little more cut in the ground.

Monksland (14-1 Ladbrokes)

Noel Meade’s Monksland has shown all of his best form in deep ground and renews rivalry with Dedigout after losing out by a short-head at Gowran Park. It should be close between the pair but both may be tapped for toe in the closing stages.

Nicky Henderson also runs Blue Fashion who would have an outstanding chance on his run behind Champion Hurdle winner Faugheen in November. He has yet to race beyond two and a half miles while At Fishers Cross is tried in blinkers for the first time after some disappointing efforts. Reve De Sivola was fourth in this race in 2013 but will do well to improve on that here.

Verdict

  1. Saphir Du Rheu 2. Whisper 3. Zarkandar 4. Lieutenant Colonel

BNP Paribas Open Preview

The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells gets underway on Wednesday, with an intriguing battle between the world’s top players set to ensue in the dry heat of California.

ATP World Tour

The top male players in the world reunite for the first time since January’s Australian Open, having each taken in various tournaments in different corners of the globe.

Novak Djokovic is the man to beat. The Serbian is world number one with a monstrous 4000 point cushion ahead of number two, Roger Federer (and a whopping advantage of almost 8000 points over Messrs Nadal and Murray), having won the Australian Open for the fifth time in January. He’ll be eager to defend his Paribas Open title, as well as the Miami Masters later this month, and also grab the 2000 ranking points on offer over both events to further cement his position as the best in the world.

Despite Djokovic’s seeming domination, Federer showed that he still has what it takes to compete with the best when he beat the Serbian comprehensively in two sets in an enticing contest in the final of the ATP Dubai last month. The 33-year-old has won the Indian Wells Masters a record four times, but has he got another in the locker?

Andy Murray was also in Dubai, but suffered a shock straight sets quarter-final defeat at the hands of 18-year-old Croatian, Borna Ćorić. The Scot still hasn’t quite rediscovered the consistency of form that saw him win Wimbledon in 2013, although he did reach the Australian Open final at the start of the year and also helped Great Britain to victory over the United States in the Davis Cup last week with a straight sets victory over John Isner.

Following a disappointing quarter-final exit in the Australian Open, Rafael Nadal is edging closer back to top form after recovering from appendix surgery. Nadal has been hindered by injuries in recent years, but still only 28, it’s certainly possible that we’ll see the Spaniard back challenging for Majors in the very near future. Nadal, along with Djokovic, has three previous Paribas Open titles – can either match Federer’s record of four?

Along with the ‘big four’, eyes will also on last year’s US Open champion, Marin Cilic, and Juan Martin del Potro, both of whom return to the court after lengthy spells out with injuries.

WTA Tour

Serena Williams returns to the place she won her first WTA title way back in 1999. Indeed, it’s been a while for Serena, her last appearance in this tournament came in 2001 when she beat Kim Clijsters in the final. If she marks her return with another Indian Wells title, she’ll become the first female to win three titles here. That said, Maria Sharapova and (albeit less likely) Daniela Hantchova are also in with a shot of a record third title here.

As ever, Serena is the big favourite heading into the tournament, with Maria Sharapova likely to provide some stern competition. However, Victoria Azarenka could certainly do some damage in California following her return from injury. The 25-year-old former world number one is currently ranked a lowly 38 in the rankings, but that position is sure to improve ahead of the summer’s majors.

Will Serena dominate once again, or could Sharapova or Azarenka demonstrate the unpredictability of the women’s game?

BNP Paribas Open Schedule

The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells starts on Wednesday 11th March, with the women’s and men’s finals bringing proceedings to a close on Sunday 22nd March 2015.