Premier League Preview 3rd March

Manchester City’s defeat at Liverpool on Sunday has shifted the balance firmly in favour of Chelsea in the Premier League title race. Bookmakers have pushed City out to 7-1 to retain the title but there is plenty of time for further twists and turns along the way.

The top teams are in action on Wednesday night with City having the much easier task at home to Leicester while the Blues travel to West Ham. Tuesday night’s action largely concerns the other end of the table with two relegation scraps at Aston Villa and Hull. If Tim Sherwood had any doubt about the task he faces at Villa Park, their seventh successive defeat at the weekend will have brought the message home.

There have been some remarkable stats in the Premier League this season, one of which is the incredible lack of goals from Villa. They have scored a miserly 13 goals all season which is less than half of the total managed by QPR, ahead of them on goal difference at present. Christian Benteke has looked a pale shadow of his former self since returning from injury and they desperately need to find a goal from somewhere.

They face a West Brom side that are on a great run of form since Tony Pulis took over. A 1-0 win over Southampton on Saturday hoisted them eight points clear of the drop zone. They may be without Saido Berahino on Tuesday but could still be good enough to take all three points. If you fancy a long shot to open the scoring, defender Joleon Lescott has scored more goals against Villa than any other side in his career.

The Hull v Sunderland game does not exactly scream goals either with Gus Poyet’s side having failed to hit the target in four matches. Hull grabbed vital points against Villa and QPR and could have enough quality to do the same to the Black Cats.

The wheels have come off a bit at Southampton in recent weeks and a top four finish is starting to look like a pipedream. It was very entertaining while it lasted but they too are struggling to hit the back of the net, Graziano Pelle in particular. They are at home to Crystal Palace who have been transformed since the arrival of Alan Pardew. Most worrying for Saints, Palace seem far better away than at home at present. They look overpriced at around 4-1.

West Brom to beat Aston Villa @21-10 Bet365

Joleon Lescott to score first @33-1 Bet365

Aston Villa 0 West Brom 1 @7-1 BetVictor

Hull to beat Sunderland @23-20 Ladbrokes

Hull 1 Sunderland 0 @6-1 BetVictor

Crystal Palace to beat Southampton @19-4 BetVictor

Southampton 0 Crystal Palace 1 @13-1 BetVictor

Chelsea 8-1 for treble after League Cup victory

Jose Mourinho again proved himself to be the master tactician as he out-foxed Mauricio Pochettino with Chelsea beating Spurs 2-0 in the League Cup final at Wembley.

Much of the pre-match build-up had focussed on the suspension to Nemanja Matic forcing Mourinho to re-think his midfield strategy. With Mikel injured, Mourinho turned to Kurt Zouma to play the holding role in midfield, primarily to negate the attacking threat posed by Christian Eriksen. Spurs had torn Chelsea apart in a 5-3 win at White Hart Lane on New Year’s Day but there was to be no repeat on Sunday.

Deflected goals in either half from John Terry and Kyle Walker (own-goal) gave the Blues a relatively comfortable victory in the pouring rain. Eriksen did strike the Chelsea cross-bar from a free-kick early on while the only real threat from Harry Kane was intercepted by a superb tackle from John Terry. Chelsea had chances to increase their lead through Hazard and Fabregas while Diego Costa was a persistent thorn in the side of Tottenham’s defence.

The earlier defeat of Man City at Liverpool by two goals to one had set up a perfect weekend for Chelsea. Two brilliant strikes from Henderson and Coutinho proved sufficient to dent City’s title hopes as they remain five points adrift of Chelsea having played a game more. The defeat ended a miserable week for Manuel Pellegrini’s side who had been fortunate to escape with only a 2-1 defeat at home to Barcelona in the Champions League on Tuesday night.

City have been pushed out to 6-1 to win the Premiership and 66-1 to win the Champions League. Lionel Messi’s double-miss in the closing seconds has given City a slim hope of overturning the deficit in the return leg in a fortnight’s time but few expect them to do so.

Chelsea drew 1-1 in Paris against PSG and have the away goal advantage for the return leg. They will start that game as favourites but can expect a tough match against a very talented side. Paddy Power are offering odds of 8-1 against Chelsea going on to complete a treble of Capital One Cup, Premiership and Champions League. Their next fixture is a London derby at West Ham on Wednesday night while City should have little difficulty at home to Leicester. We will be previewing all of the midweek Premier League action on Betcirca.

Cricket World Cup: Day 16 Recap

Day 16 Results

1. Sri Lanka v England

Being better but still losing by ten wickets is wonderfully bittersweet.  Especially when you’re the England skipper and your own form is horrendous, your getting grief for not singing the side’s national anthem, and if you’re out of the Cricket World Cup if you don’t beat Afghanistan and Bangladesh in your last two games.

That’s what Eoin Morgan’s going through. Piling on three hundred he would’ve gone to lunch pretty satisfied with his teams work.  Joe Root laid the platform with a well controlled hundred, and Jos Buttler finished it off with the death over impetus that the situation demanded.  Lunch would have gone down well, with Morgan assuming his band of quicks would have no trouble defending the huge total.

But they couldn’t.  They were never a chance as Sri Lanka waltzed to an imperious victory – by nine wickets and with 16 balls remaining.  Centuries to Kumar Sangakkara and Lahiru Thirimanne suddenly making Morgan’s position as captain looking shaky.  Sangakkara was particularly masterful.  His hundred coming from just 70 balls and upping the ante just when required.  In fact, the hundred was Sangakkara’s quickest ever, and outlines the ominous form he is currently in (near his very best).  Thirimanne also enjoyed the flat pitch as he looks more assured in his role at the tope of the order.  His hundred means all of Sri Lanka’s top four have crossed the hundred mark in this Cricket World Cup.

England’s bowlers look dreadfully off the pace and are unlikely to worry any opposition batsman on these surfaces.  Their two best bowlers (over a long period of time), Stuart Broad and James Anderson are averaging 92 and 91 respectively with the ball in the four games they have completed in the Cricket World Cup.  They need to get the Kookaburra ball swinging and quickly if they are any chance to make the quarterfinals and then surprise someone in them.

A batting order change around is probably necessary too.  We’d have Ali, Hales, Bell, Root, Buttler, Taylor, Morgan…

Sri Lanka 312 for 1 (Thirimanne 139*, Sangakkara 117*) beat England 309 for 6 (Root 121, Bell 49) by nine wickets

2. Pakistan v Zimbabwe

Pakistan finally got on the board at the Cricket World Cup with a gritty win over underdogs Zimbabwe in Canberra.  Zimbabwe’s known achilles heal – their inability to contain run rates at the death – and their Betcirca predicted second achilles heal – inability to handle the bounce of Mohammed Irfan – ultimately cost them the game, despite being competitive throughout.

Pakistan are developing some fragilities of their own.  The batting unit look well below par, and they were indebted to Misbah-ul-Haq and Wahab Riaz for bringing some respectability to the total and ensuring the bowlers had something to defend.  At 127/5 and 155/6 Pakistan looked to be sliding towards another World Cup defeat, and their place in the knockout stages was looking dicey.  However, the ever patient ul-Haq and Riaz managed to put together a partnership of 47, and Riaz was able to continue the momentum in the final overs to help his team post 235.  Zimbabwe conceded 73 from the last ten overs and put down two of the easiest outfield catches you’ll ever see, in a further example of the reason they can’t quite get wins at this level.

Zimbabwe’s chase started poorly.  They lost three early wickets to Mohammed Irfan which derailed any chance of early momentum and meant they would always be chasing the game.  Brendon Taylor did his best to hold the innings together, and Elton Chigumbura batted bravely in the face of a significant injury concern, but they still fell 20 runs short.  Irfan added a fourth wicket, and Riaz matched his haul, while Umar Akmal had a hand in six dismissals.

Pakistan 235 for 7 (Misbah 73, Wahab 54*, Chatara 3-35) beat Zimbabwe 215 (Taylor 50, Irfan 4-30, Wahab 4-45) by 20 runs

Sunday 1st March Sha Tin Tips

HONG KONG RACING SUNDAY 1 MARCH 2015

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

The racing just keeps getting better at Sha Tin and once again today we have an outstanding group one race in the CitiBank Gold Cup. Small field but packed full of talent. Looks to be a very exciting race with the likes of Designs On Rome and Military Attack in the field. It does look to be a sensational race with those runners involved. To add to that we have Blazing Speed and California Memory just breathing down their necks along with Harbour Master who certainly has shown potential. Yet another great days racing in Hong Kong and we certainly found some winners there last week. On top selections and value selections as well as six exactas. Get amongst it and enjoy the day.

Track and Conditions: Turf B+2 Course with the exception of Races 2-5  which will be on the All Weather Dirt Track.

Expected Weather:  Mainly cloudy with one or two rain patches and a top temperature of 20 degrees. Wind will be from the northeast up to 30 Km/h and on occasions up to 40 Km/h. This will create a direct head wind down the straight which will aid on paced runners.

Best Bet: Race 3 No 7 Pop-Bear

Best Value: Race 8 No 1 Celestial Smile

Exotic Races: Race No’s 7-8-9-10

Quaddie: – Race 7: 1-2 Race 8: 9-1-13-7-5 Race 9: 4-1 Race 10: 2-11-9-1-6

 

Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 2000m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 1 Enjoy The Game

Value Selection: No 10 Win Chance

Exotic Inclusions: No 12 Glamorous Ryder and No 4 Super Strike

Race Overiew

Not the sort of race you want to get too involved in first up today. Looks a bit of a minefield over this distance at this class. But there may be a bit of value just the same if keeping your stakes small. Enjoy The Game went well recently when going up to class four and certainly enjoyed the weight drop. Back to top weight today with the class rise but his previous form was very good at this class so if he can carry the weight he has to be a bit of a chance here.  Win Chance has never looked like making it at lesser distances and performed as such. However after stepping up in distance has shown a fair bit of improvement. Both his last starts all be it have been at Happy Valley and he did close off exceptionally well last start over the 2200m. Looks suited today over the 2000m Has a senior hoop in Brett Prebble in the saddle and you would have to expect he should be value as well.

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 4 – AWT

Top Pick: No 4 Kingston Jumbo

Value Selection: No 10 Horse Supremo

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Modern Fortune – No 7 Lovely Naughty – Hello Kimberly

Race Overview

Kingston Jumbo Is an Australian breed four year old who appears to have matured very well this season. Improved a fair bit since going to the All Weather Track and has won both his last two starts at this class on that surface. Up a bit in the weights as a result of that but still looks ok and has to be another strong chance with Joao Moreira retaining the ride today. Horse Supremo has mixed his form this season at Happy Valley and the AWT at Sha Tin and looks to prefer this surface going on his last two starts. They are both tight tracks and the draws are important. Just gets in with gate eight today and is well weighted. Only has to repeat his last two starts to be a good chance once again today.  Hello Kimberley normally when he drops back in class he performs very well but had a few issues last start and coped a few knocks early so may pay to forgive that effort. Not drawn well in gate 10 but does get a 2 Lb claim here and this is certainly not a strong class four and may very well pay to follow here. Goes in as my BOLTER of the day.

 

Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 4 Bear Rapper

Value Selection: No 5 Thor The Greatest

Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Fun Tapestry and No 2 How Speedy

Bear Rapper has never been very far away in all his races since arriving in Hong Kong and closed off very well from a wide gate last start and was not very far away in the wash up at all. Comes up with a nice draw today in gate four and I expect this will certainly help. Interesting to see a bit of hoop swapping going on here with Joao Moreira off Thor The Greatest and onto Bear Rapper and Brett Prebble off Bear Rapper and onto Thor The Greatest as they both certainly have appeal here although. Thor The Greatest has drawn wide but he has been very consistent this season. He will most likely try to cross early and if he gets in with cover he certainly has to come under consideration as well.

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1200 —Class 4

Top Pick: No 13 Winner St Paul’s

Value Selection: No 4 Forever Accurate

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Telecom Boss and No 1 Kokoda

Race Overview

Very open affair here and it does look like it will be each way the field. Winner St Paul’s just the three starts in Hong Kong and is improving with racing. Went to the line well last start and was only 1 1/4 lengths of the winner on that occasion. Comes up with a nice draw in gate 2 and always has a good hoop in the saddle and nothing has changed today with the master of the weave in Brett Prebble taking the over. Forever Accurate is much better than last run would suggest as he lost a plate in the running on that occasion and it did appear to affect his chances. Previous runs leading into that start were very good and is expected to do much better today. each way chance here. Telecom Boss Dropped back to this class last start and although he did not get into a place he did get much closer in the wash up only 1 3/4 lengths from the winner. That was his first go with the extra weight with the class drop and would not have to improve very much to be a good chance here.

 

Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 1 – AWT

Top Pick: No 9 Master Kochanwong

Value Selection: No 4 Access Years

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Super Jockey and No 7 Lord Sinclair / No 1 Sterling City

Race Overview

Interesting Class 1 race here with some good runners engaged. But when looking at the AWT form it is hard to go past  Master Kochanwong who does look the best weighted runner in this race as he handled the class rise last start and recorded a nice win with 122Lbs on his back. Drops to 119 Lbs today and comes up with a great draw in gate 2. Retains Douglas Whyte in the saddle and certainly has to come under consideration here. Access Years as a few of these are untried over this surface. Make no bones about it this is a very classy race but he has been a very consistent type since arriving in Hong Kong and certainly deserves to be in this company. Drops 7 Lbs on his last start 2nd at this class and should be very competitive here. I currently at each way odds which does make him value here.

 

Race 6: — Time: 7.30am GMT—Distance: 1400m —Class 3

Top Pick: No 12 Bossie

Value Selection: No 5 Da Vinci

Exotic Inclusions: No 4 Cheeky Too and No 1 Noble Alpha

 

Race Overview

Bossie Only the four starts in Hong Kong and does look like a nice type. Went up to this class last start and ran a very nice 2nd. Looks extremely well weighted and should get a very nice trail in the running from gate 2 and retains Joao Moreira in the saddle. Should go close here. Da Vinci does look like a very nice type and will certainly get away with a win or two at this class before too much longer. Well beaten last start but looking at the margins he was not very far away at all , only 1 1/2 lengths in the wash up and does look a bit of a hope today as he goes around with the same weight as last start.

 

 

Race 7: — Time: 8.00am GMT—Distance: 2000m—Class- Group One

Top Pick: No 1 Designs On Rome

Value Selection: No 2 Military Attack

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Blazing Speed and No 4 California Memory

Race Overview

At set weights this should be a great race. Let’s put it under the microscope 🙂  Well looking at Designs On Rome and Military Attack there is never much between them and only the Jockey has managed to time their runs to perfection. Designs On Rome has managed to come out in front on most occasions and did so the last time these two met over this distance all be it by a short head. On that occasion it was at set weights so if their form is up to par it is a bit of a toss up today. Military Attack has a huge heart and will never stop trying so if any hiccups he will certainly take advantage of it. On the other side of the coin we also must look at California Memory. He has been a bit out of sorts since his early career wins at very good class races.. What I did notice was the way he finished off his last start. He did on that occasion have a very light weight but gets into this race today with a nice weight as well. He finished 7th at his last start which was won by Designs On Rome over the 1800m but what you can read into it is that he was only 1 1/2 lengths from the winner on that occasion and was closing off very well. Gives you the impression he has been set for this and the extra distance will be right up his ally. Should certainly be a bit of value here. Blazing Speed and Harbour Master can also figure on recent form. Interesting Race just the same.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 9 Colossus

Value Selection: No 1 Celestial Smile

Exotic Inclusions: No 13 So Café and No 7 Renaissance / No 5 Jun Huo

Race Overview

Colossus has only had the one start in Hong Kong but it was for a very nice third over the 1400m. Closed off very well on that occasion indicating that the extra distance up to the Sha Tin mile may very well be his go. Does look like Tommy Berry’s better chances today. Celestial Smile is far too consistent to leave out here even with top weight. Only needs a sniff over the concluding stages and will be hard to hold out at this class.

 

Race 9: — Time: 9.10am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class – 3

Top Pick: No 4 Why Why

Value Selection: No 1 Eroico

Exotic Inclusions: No Mutimax and No 14 Blizzard / No 7 Happy Meteor

Race Overview

Why Why has been in sensational form of late and does appeal as another very good chance once again today. Won at his first go at this class last start and still looks well treated at the weights today. Drawn well and retains his regular hoop. May very well pay to follow here. Eroico will be the one they will be wanting to be on here with Joao Moreira retaining the ride. Went a bit a miss over the concluding stages last start but can improve on that effort. May have been the weight but will certainly see today if that was the case. However not a strong class three and if on song can get away with this.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.45pm GMT—Distance: 1800m—Class 2

Top Pick: No 2 Packing Llaregyb

Value Selection: No 11 Contentment

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Obliterator and No 1 Flame Hero / No 6 Mr Gnocchi

Very nice class two here. I do like Packing Llaregyb in a race of this type. Certainly showed that he is very well up to Group racing with his effort last start in finishing a very close up 2nd over this distance at G3. He had on that occasion a very light weight and closed off extremely well. Gets a big weight rise today but on the same token this is a good class drop as well. I must say some of the lower weighted runners certainly have very good chances as well. Great Race. Without doubt Contentment does look extremely well weighted today with just 114Lbs on his back. Drawn well and has Joeo Moreira in the saddle and has to be respected at the weights as well as he was only 3 Lengths away last start at HKG1.       

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cricket World Cup: Day 16 Preview

The Three Big Questions

What does New Zealand’s win mean for the World Cup?

The Black Caps win was highly entertaining but doesn’t mean all that much for the rest of the World Cup.  They will probably top Pool A now and have a home quarterfinal and semifinal if they get that far.  It makes  Australia’s road slightly harder and they may face the difficult prospect of South Africa in the semi-final; possibly a little earlier than anticipated.  The win proves low totals are defendable, showcases swing bowling as a very serious weapon against the power hitting approach, but also shows New Zealand’s susceptibility to quality pace bowling.  Taylor, Elliot and Anderson all looked vulnerable to real pace, and their form will be a concern.

How will Australia respond?

By dominating all of their opponents in the lead up to the semifinals.  It was certainly a wake up call and we expect them to bounce back with huge performances against Scotland, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.  Big wins against the raining Pool companions will return them to confidence and remove any demons from their Eden Park performance – they won’t bat this badly again in the tournament.

What did the win do to the tournament winner odds?

Australia – $2.90, South Africa – $4.00, New Zealand – $4.25.

No change to the outright market after the unexpected win.  While New Zealand may shorten over the next few days, there was no flurry of money on New Zealand after their nervy batting performance.  Australia still big favourites (as expected).

Today’s Matchups

1. England v Sri Lanka, Wellington Regional Stadium (Wellington – mostly sunny), starts 11:00am local time

England – $1.85

Sri Lanka – $1.95

Bookies are having a hard time separating two evenly matched teams in the day’s first encounter in Wellington.  Both teams have had their share of disappointment in the tournament thus far, but both are coming off big wins against Scotland and Bangladesh respectively.  This game should give a good indication of the merits of each teams Cricket World Cup chances.

Look for plenty of runs on a quick Wellington surface and expect this one to go deep into the last overs to find a winner.

2. Pakistan v Zimbabwe, The Gabba (Brisbane – parlty cloudy), starts 1:30pm local time

Pakistan – $1.25

Zimbabwe – $4.00

Pakistan have the chance to ease the nerves of their entire nation, and in the process save a few effigies from the predictable burning.  Their easiest matchup of the World Cup thus far gives them an opportunity to build confidence, find some form, and settle on the combinations that will hopefully compete in the knockout stages.  Zimbabwe haven’t played a bad game yet so they’ll target this one as a genuine upset chance.  How they handle the uncomfortable bounce of Mohammed Irfan will ultimately determine how they go.  Oh and their death bowling needs to improve too.

Today’s Multi

The Sexual Innuendo Multi

Joe Root to Top Score – $5.00 + ‘Boom Boom’ Afridi to Win Man of the Match Award – $12.00

Pays – $60.00

Odds from BetEasy.

Cricket World Cup: Day 15 Recap

A match between two top tier sides finally went down to the wire in the Cricket World Cup yesterday.  Kane Williamson’s maximum ensuring New Zealand shocked the world best Australians by one wicket in a low scoring but highly entertaining affair at Eden Park.

Keep reading for more details on New Zealand’s one wicket win.

Day 15 Results

1. Australia v New Zealand

The talk of theoretical three hundred strong totals was quickly cast aside as New Zealand and Australia collectively struggled to score 300 runs between them.  The sub par batting performances from both sides, however, didn’t detract from the incredible spectacle that left everyone in attendance satisfied, if a little surprised their day had ended two hours ahead of schedule.  New Zealand got by by one wicket thanks to a nerveless Kane Williamson six off Pat Cummins, despite the bowling heroics of Mitchell Starc at the other end.

Australia’s fast start against a nervous Tim Southee gave no indication of the inept display that was to follow.  At 30-0 off just 2.1 overs, Australia looked destined for a sizeable total.  Even after Aaron Finch was  removed the next ball, they still managed to get to 80-1 with Shane Watson and David Warner going along nicely.  Southee had proven expensive in his opening spell in a display that highlighted the small margin for error at Auckland’s concrete jungle.  But as Australia looked to heap more misery on the Kiwi bowlers, Brendon McCullum pulled a masterstroke by introducing the left arm spin of Daniel Vettori in just the seventh over.  His introduction stifled the scoring rate and caused Shane Watson to err and throw away his wicket, pulling him straight to deep square leg for 23.

Tim Southee removed Davey Warney (as he is affectionately known by all Australian commentators) next ball, an then Trent Boult returned the remarkable second spell bowling figures of 5/1 to see Australia slump to 106/9.  While the bowling was accurate, the batting was horrendous.  Four players getting bowled is disappointing at international level (FYI, New Zealand had the same number later in the night).  Brad Haddin and Pat Cummins managed to add some respect to the total; Haddin made 43 and if he had eked out a few more might have done enough to get his side home.

New Zealand’s pursuit of the small total started off without a hitch.  A Mitchell Johnson no-ball resulted in a free-hit six to Martin Nuptial and the Black Caps were on their way.  McCullum continued his free scoring approach to small targets.  The swing from the hip mentality served him well only until Mitchell Johnson landed a nasty blow on his forearm that upset some of his momentum, but he still managed a 24 ball fifty.  From there New Zealand lost wickets in clumps to accurate, fast insignia of Mitchell Starc.  Starc took the wickets of Taylor and Elliot either side of the lunch interval, and then another two in two when he dismissed Milne and Southee to set-up the thrilling finish.  Australia needed one wicket for a famous comeback victory.  New Zealand needed six runs to win the Chappell-Hadley Trophy.  Mitchell Starc had two balls at number 11 Trent Boult.  Boult survived and Williamson deposited Cummins into the stand to seal a famous win and all but ensure New Zealand a home quarterfinal.

New Zealand 152 for 9 (McCullum 50, Williamson 45*, Starc 6-28) beat Australia 151 (Haddin 43, Boult 5-27, Southee 2-65, Vettori 2-41) by one wicket

2. India v UAE

The second match of the day was a disappointing dull affair as the UAE failed to match their more experienced opponents in all aspects of the game.  Betting first the minnows only mustered 103.  All out in 31.3 overs, without any threat of putting together a useful total.  India’s bowling is on the improve, but it shouldn’t strike any fear into teams, and certainly not all out for 103 type fear.  Nevertheless, that is what transpired.  Ravi Ashwin the star of the show, picking up four cheap wickets and providing the perfect support to Yadava and Kumar who had earlier taken wickets in their opening spells.

The target was knocked off with consulate ease.  Rohit Sharma made an unbeaten half century and Virat Kohli added 33 unbeaten runs to wrap things up with little fuss, little energy exhausted, and no injuries.  The perfect result for the Indians who appear to be getting stronger and stronger.

India 104 for 1 (Rohit 57*) beat UAE 102 (Anwar 35, Ashwin 4-25) by 9 wickets