Twenty-four horses are set to face the starter in Saturday’s Becher Chase at Aintree. I cannot remember the Betfair Chase attracting such a large field in previous years and it reads like a min-Grand National!
Two years ago, On His Own appeared to be travelling as well as anything in the big race when falling at Becher’s Brook on the second circuit. The last time I was as gutted in the National was when West Tip came down in almost identical fashion.
Naturally plans were set in motion for a repeat attempt but, unlike West Tip, it did not end well. Ruby Walsh had him in a good position but he was clearly in retreat when he fell awkwardly at Valentine’s on the second circuit. Some horses are just not meant to win at Aintree and it appears that On His Own falls into that category.
He lines up on Saturday against a field of veterans and misfits and you’d have to fancy him on his best form. Of course there is a risk that he will suffer the same fate as on his two previous visits so I recommend an insurance policy in the form of stable companion Vesper Bell.
I wouldn’t normally tip a horse that hasn’t run for seven months, especially in such a gruelling race, but Willie Mullins is unlikely to be sending him over for the good of his health. He also holds an entry in the Welsh National and his form suggests that the deeper the ground the better.
If the rest of Britain is anything like it is here in Scotland today (Thursday – the day of the Winter Storm) then I’d expect the going to be soft at the weekend. On his most recent start, Vesper Bell was just grabbed on the line by Welsh National favourite Goonyella at Punchestown.
Of the others, I am expecting Across The Bay to jump around safely after leading the National field for such a long way. He made a slight mistake at the third and was hampered when a loose horse ran across him before half-way so it was no surprise that he weakened in the closing stages. With a shorter trip and his free-wheeling style, it would be no surprise to see him up there from the start.
The biggest surprise for me is to see David Pipe’s Junior at the top of the weights. He was the subject of a massive ante-post plunge in this race a couple of seasons ago but appeared to resent the place and I assumed that we wouldn’t see him back here again. Far be it from me to question Mr Pipe so I can only assume that they have had second thoughts for his recalcitrant performance that day.
On His Own 10-1 Betfair
Vesper Bell (each-way) 16-1 Stan James, BetVictor
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
