The Champions League returns this Tuesday with a raft of exciting match-ups. While we have seen teams like Bayern and Arsenal play each other almost too frequently in recent years, this is the first time we have seen these two titans of European football coming together in a UEFA Champions League game. An intense, high-scoring game seems likely.
Dortmund
Despite a challenging ongoing domestic campaign, fourth in the Bundesliga, Dortmund were successful in powering through a group seemingly dominated by champions Real Madrid. A brace of 2:2 draws against the Spanish Giants, 14 goals in two games against Legia Warsaw and a double over Sporting Lisbon saw them top their group by away goal differential. Unlike some, Dortmund was actually rewarded for finishing top of their group with a draw against an opposition who they will feel they have every chance of progressing against.
Dortmund will again be looking to frontman Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to provide the impetus for a win against the Portuguese champions. With 15 goals 13 matches, Aubameyang is one of the form strikers currently playing in Europe; his combination of speed, strength and skill is proving to be all but unstoppable. Any chance of a result for Benfica will rely on their ability to frustrate him.
While Aubameyang will almost certainly start next Tuesday, Borussia will potentially have to deal with a number of key absences: Sven Bender, Lukasz Piszczek, Marco Reus, Marcel Schmelzer and Mario Gotze are all in doubt, while Nuri Sahin may be fit to make a return.
Benfica
Currently sitting top of Primeira Liga and looking to defend their title, Benfica has been enjoying some quality form this season. Unlucky to be pipped to top of Group B by Napoli in a group that could have gone any number of different ways, they will likely be thankful to not be facing Real Madrid, a prospect the Italians are no doubt relishing.
In squad with a number of established goal scorers and playmakers, Benfica will be looking to Konstantinos Mitroglou and Pizzi to provide the spark and ability needed to put their team past Dortmund’s quality. Benfica’s injury list is small, compared to Borussia, with Lisandro Lopez and Eduardo Salvio the only players in doubt for Tuesday.
The value
Picking apart the value here was always going to be a challenge, with no head to head data to speak of, and with erratic Dortmund so capable of both scoring and conceding with gusto. The Germans did, however, play Sporting twice in the group phase, winning both games 2:1. This gives us a slight idea how Dortmund fair against Portuguese opponents, although Benfica is a different animal to their bitter rivals.
While the instinct would be to predict goals here, the first leg of CL knockouts so often involves both teams playing conservatively, seeking each other out and trying to minimise the scoreline. Despite this, I think Dortmund will prioritise getting an away goal, potentially at the risk of conceding: BTTS is at 7/10 with Bet 365, Dortmund Win & BTTS/Yes at 10/3, and 5/1 for Benfica all seem like good value, depending on your view. Considering the injuries Dortmund may be facing, it could well be worth backing the slight underdogs at home.
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