The All Backs have never lost to Scotland. In 109 long years the brave Scottish are yet to break a duck that is beginning to resemble one of the most one-sided bi-lateral match ups in history. Saturday’s Murrayfield encounter is the latest stanza in the meetings between the countries, and is a return to Scotland’s last resemblance of success against the All Blacks; a 23-23 draw in 1983.
However, the 2014 version shapes as an intriguing matchup between consistency and rotation. The All Blacks escaped an England scare last week to reaffirm their position as World Cup favourites, and have made 13 changes to that side in an almost unrecognisable line-up. Whereas, a much improved Scotland side dismantled a capable Argentinian side, scoring five tries in the process for the first time in a test in six years, and have made zero changes from that team.
The 13 changes made by Steve Hansen is the greatest number of changes he has made to a side from week to week in his tenure. To an extent, that puts Scotland in the same vein as the USA, and opens the All Blacks up to complacency wobbles. Leaving names such as Conrad Smith, Israel Dagg, Sonny Bill Williams, Julian Savea, Jerome Kaino, and Kieran Read have had many pundits questioning whether Hansen is treating the game with the requisite respect. Complacency though, as a word, doesn’t exist in the All Blacks psyche, the team are too well organised and drilled to allow laziness to creep in. Combine that with the depth in the All Blacks training squad and the versatility of a number of their players and the changes should have a minimal material impact to their performance.
Looking to exploit any potential All Black uncertainty is a Scotland side that under a new leadership group of captain Greig Laidlaw and coach Vern Cotter have drastically altered their game plan. Last week’s effort was full of vigour and attacking intent, words that much like the All Blacks example above, are rarely associated with Scotland. Scotland looked dangerous with ball in hand throughout will look to tap into Cotter’s knowledge of All Black rugby or at the very least the absence of fear he brings to the environment.
Daniel Carter’s return to the All Blacks fold is an interesting aside to the main event. That’s because even with three World class first fives (maybe four, if you count Colin Slade), the All Blacks are yet to settle on their number one option; durability concerns remain over Carter, and Barrett and Cruden have the goal-kicking yips.
With plenty of changes the All Blacks are obviously confident they can remain perfect against the Scots. By no means however, does that mean it will be easy. I’m picking the All Blacks by 16 in a scrappy match.
The Odds
New Zealand $1.04
Scotland $12.00
Odds courtesy of Sportingbet Australia.
The Teams
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Mark Bennett, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tommy Seymour, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Greig Laidlaw (captain); 1 Alasdair Dickinson, 2 Ross Ford, 3 Euan Murray, 4 Richie Gray, 5 Jonny Gray, 6 Rob Harley, 7 Blair Cowan, 8 Adam Ashe.
Replacements: 16 Fraser Brown, 17 Gordon Reid, 18 Geoff Cross, 19 Tim Swinson, 20 Johnnie Beattie, 21 Chris Cusiter, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Sean Lamont.
All Blacks: 15 Ben Smith, 14 Colin Slade, 13 Malakai Fekitoa, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Charles Piutau, 10 Dan Carter, 9 TJ Perenara; 1 Joe Moody, 2 James Parsons, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 5 Dominic Bird, 6 Richie McCaw (captain), 7 Sam Cane, 8 Victor Vito.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ben Franks, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Liam Messam, 21 Augustine Pulu, 22 Sonny Bill Williams, 23 Julian Savea.
Betfair:
Bet on Henrik Stenson to become the BMW PGA Championship Winner.
Paddypower:
Back Australia to take the Ashes home with them.
Betway:
Back Rafael Nadal to become the Mens French Open Winner.
Coral:
Back One For Arthur to win the Grand National.
Bet365:
Back Mexico to win the Confederations Cup.
