Category: Australian Horse Racing

Melbourne Cup Tips

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The field for the Melbourne Cup could be reduced to 22 following a late injury-scare for Cavalryman. The expert veterinary team at Godolphin are assessing scans of the injury before making a decision on his participation. Sea Moon was withdrawn yesterday with a temperature and there are no reserves allocated for the Cup.

During the build-up to the race we have suggested Mutual Regard was a good each-way bet at 20-1 and the Irish raider is now priced at around 11-1. Johnny Murtagh’s runner has not raced since winning the Ebor Handicap at York in the summer but connections are confident that he races best when fresh.

The booking of three-time race winning rider Damien Oliver can only help his cause. Oliver will equal the record of most wins in the race if he can add Mutual Regard’s name to that of Doriemus (1995), Media Puzzle (2002) and Fiorente (2013). He has also finished runner-up on three occasions and is well drawn in barrier 12.

We also find it hard to get away from the claims of Fawkner who ran a tremendous race when narrowly beaten in the Cox Plate by Adelaide. His build-up has mirrored that of last year’s winner Fiorente and he also looks perfectly placed in barrier nine. With Sportsbet offering refunds if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th, he looks a good bet to finish in the frame.

There has been a flood of money for bottom weight Signoff since his Lexus Stakes victory at the weekend. His form is closely tied in with Protectionist who flies the flag for Germany and finished just behind Signoff in the Herbert Power Stakes. Admire Rakti shot to the head of the market with his great weight carrying performance in the Caulfield Cup but his penalty will give hope to those that finished in behind.

Eight of the horses that finished behind the Japanese horse at Caulfield re-oppose here. Many believe that Lucia Valentina could reverse the form here but I still have reservations about her stamina and Araldo caught my eye.

He was never placed to challenge but ran on strongly in the closing stages. Unfortunately he has drawn widest of all so will again be faced with picking his way through the field. Trainer Mike Moroney won the race with Brew in 2000 and Araldo could sneak into the frame at a decent price.

Finally, if you are looking for a massive long-shot, the odds currently showing on Seismos are an insult. It is true that he was always struggling at Caulfield and will have to be on his game to hold a position from barrier one. Trainer Marco Botti has been down this road before with Jakkalberry who ran an equally poor trial before finishing third in the Cup at 80-1. It is not impossible that history could repeat itself.

Fawkner @8.0 Sportsbet

Mutual Regard @11.0 Sportsbet

Araldo @26.0 Sportsbet

Seismos @126.0 Sportsbet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

*Sportsbet will refund your stake if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th up to a maximum of $100 (First bet only)

Melbourne Cup 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Our ante-post selection for the Melbourne Cup was Ireland’s Mutual Regard at 20-1 and his price has almost halved. With Damien Oliver booked and a perfect draw in barrier 12, we are hoping for a good run from the Ebor winner on Tuesday.

My one concern is his lack of a previous race in Australia which means that he will be having his first race for 73 days on Tuesday. Vintage Crop managed to win the race without any previous outings down under but he was an exceptional stayer.

The favourite Admire Rakti should make a bold bid to defy top weight and has also drawn nicely in barrier 8. Zac Purton will be content to bide his time on the six-year-old who surprised connections by having the speed to win the Caulfield Cup. You would have to fancy him to come out on top of those that contested that race and no fewer than nine take him on again here.

Lucia Valentina was ridden to get the trip that day and rattled home late in third under Kerrin McEvoy. That does not convince me that she will see out the trip here and mares have a poor record in the race, with the obvious exception of Makybe Diva. Brambles, Araldo, Lidari and Junoob all finished in a heap but the draw has dealt a blow to three of those. I thought Araldo ran particularly well and might make the frame here but he has drawn barrier 24.

Protectionist has been prepared specifically for this race by Andreas Wohler and he secured the services of Ryan Moore some time ago. He meets Signoff on identical terms to when finishing fourth and second respectively in the Herbert Power Stakes. Anyone who gambled on Signoff at long odds before the Lexus will be feeling very pleased with themselves but any value has now gone.

Sportsbet are refunding stakes if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Melbourne Cup and I’m going to recommend Fawkner to back up our earlier investment on Mutual Regard. I was impressed with his win in the Caulfield Stakes and he produced a run not unlike that of Fiorente a year ago when second in the Cox Plate. I think it will be very difficult to keep him out of the first four and he is perfectly drawn in barrier 9.

Ante-post Mutual Regard @20-1

Fawkner @9-1 Sportsbet*

*Special offer – stakes refunded if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th (max. $100)

Melbourne Cup 2014 – Runner by Runner Guide

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Flemington Race 7 (3:00pm) Tuesday 4th November

Admire Rakti – 9

Clear favourite since winning the Caulfield Cup and carries only a 0.5kg penalty here. Classy Japanese raider who was fourth in the Japan Cup last year and has drawn perfectly in barrier 8.

Cavalryman – NON-RUNNER

Godolphin are still chasing that elusive first Cup victory and Cavalryman is not out of it despite being eight years of age. Won the Goodwood Cup in July and was fast enough to beat Hillstar at Newmarket over a mile and half previously.

Fawkner – 9

Consistent grey who won the Caulfield Stakes before finishing a short-neck second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Sixth last year and has a major chance of doing better here.

Red Cadeaux – 6

Veteran of three Melbourne Cups, finishing runner-up behind Dunaden in 2011 and Fiorente last year. His prep races have been poor this year and it will be a major shock if he can improve his record.

Protectionist – 8

Trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and a big market mover following his fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Has not always been the easiest horse to train but has never been out of the first four and will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

Sea Moon – NON-RUNNER

A classy middle-distance performer in Europe and won the Herbert Power Stakes last year. Has been out of sorts in the build-up to the race will wear blinkers on Tuesday.

Seismos – 6

Regarded as the second string to the absent Dandino for Marco Botti and always struggling at Caulfield. Will need to hold his position early from barrier 1 if he is to have any chance.

Junoob – 7

Won the Group 1 Metropolitan for Chris Waller but did not enjoy a good run in the Caulfield Cup. Another with stamina concerns but perfectly drawn in barrier seven.

Royal Diamond – 7

Almost forgotten stable companion of Mutual Regard but the winner of the Irish St Leger in 2012 and a good performer in his own right. Has won on all types of ground but is unlikely to be improving at the age of eight.

Gatewood – 7

Was aimed at this race in 2012 but did not qualify and failed to settle in Australia subsequently. Has been revitalised by a return to John Gosden’s stable but drawn wide in barrier 22.

Mutual Regard – 9

Winner of the valuable Ebor handicap at York and a proven stayer with a touch of class. Has enjoyed a smooth preparation and is expected to go well for second season trainer Johnny Murtagh.

Who shot Thebarman – 6

One of three runners for Chris Waller and finished behind stable companion Junoob at Caulfield. Had previously won a Group 3 race here.

Willing Foe – 7

Beat Royal Diamond in the 2012 Ebor but has been lightly-raced since. Should get the trip but is regarded as Godolphin’s number two behind Cavalryman.

My Ambivalent – 6

A very ambitious raider from Roger Varian’s stable with no form beyond a mile and a half. Won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland last year but big stamina doubts.

Precedence – 5

Bart Cummings-trained nine-year-old having his fourth crack at the race. Started at 100-1 when ninth last year and will be a similar price this time.

Brambles – 7

One of two Peter Moody runners and has run some decent trials here and at Caulfield. May lack a turn of foot and a wide draw will not help his cause.

Mr O’Ceirin – 5

Not much to recommend this one, a doubtful stayer without a victory this season. Best effort when second to Moriarty at Eagle Farm in May.

Au Revoir – 6

Trained in France by Andre Fabre and ran a fair trial when third in the recent Moonee Valley Cup. Not the highest class raider from France in recent seasons and poorly drawn in barrier 23.

Lidari – 7

Stable companion of Brambles and a very similar profile. Tightly matched with that horse on form behind Lucia Valentina and Admire Rakti but has fared better in the draw in barrier 10.

Opinion – 6

Another entry for Chris Waller and struggling for form recently. Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute in England and ran well behind Junoob in the Metropolitan.

Araldo – 6

Only a length and a half behind Admire Rakti at Caulfield. Previously third to Junoob but connections will have been devastated to see him drawn widest of all in barrier 24.

Lucia Valentina – 8

Winner of the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and third to Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup. Was ridden from off the pace that day and unproven over the distance but should get a good position from barrier 2.

Unchain My Heart – 4

Comfortably held by several of these on form and a serious contender for last place.

Signoff – 6

Emphatically beat Big Memory to win the Lexus Stakes on Saturday and earn his place in the field. Shocking was the last horse to complete the Lexus/Melbourne Cup double in 2009.

Forecast

  1. Fawkner 10-1 Sportsbet
  2. Mutual Regard 10-1 Luxbet
  3. Admire Rakti 4-1 Tom Waterhouse
  4. Lucia Valentina 7-1 Sportingbet

Admire Rakti tops final 24 for Melbourne Cup

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Saturday’s Lexus Stakes saw the final pieces of the jigsaw fall into place for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.

All but one of the runners involved still held an outside chance of making the final Cup field and it went to Signoff. Shocking proved that it is possible to win both races in 2009 and Maluckyday almost pulled it off when second to Americain the following year.

There were 38 stayers still in contention for a place for the $6.2 million Group 1 race on Saturday morning but the final 24 are now officially known and the draw was made on Saturday.

As expected, Japan’s Admire Rakti (barrier 8) will carry top weight of 58.5kg after his brilliant win in the Caulfield Cup. Connections had briefly considered bypassing the race in favour of the Japan Cup but a 0.5kg seems entirely justified. The seven-year-old jumped to the head of the market after that win, deposing the German stayer Protectionist who went into many notebooks when finishing well in fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. The Group 2 Prix Kergorlay winner will start from barrier 11 and is the mount of Ryan Moore.

Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner (barrier 9) is also popular with punters and he remains solid in the market following his brave second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Ed Dunlop’s globetrotting Red Cadeaux (barrier 15) is back for a fourth run in the race while Godolphin are quietly confident that Cavalryman (drawn 3) and Willing Foe (17) both have great chances of ending their long wait to win the big race.

There has been steady support for Ireland’s Mutual Regard (drawn 12) in recent weeks. The Ebor winner is trained by former top jockey Johnny Murtagh who only hung up his riding boots last season. Damien Oliver has the ride on this one.

Marco Botti is forced to rely on Seismos (1) following the enforced withdrawal of Dandino while Murtagh also runs 2012 Irish St Leger winner Royal Diamond (6). The home team also have hopes with Chris Waller’s Metropolitan winner Junoob (7) and proven stayer Who Shot Thebarman (13). Confidence is also growing behind Lucia Valentina (barrier 2) who was third at Caulfield while Peter Moody saddles the consistent Lidari (10) and Brambles (21).

John Gosden’s Gatewood (22) gets into the field this year after returning to the UK following an unsuccessful spell in training in Australia. My Ambivalent (4) is unproven over the distance but is a classy middle-distance trained by Roger Varian while Andre Fabre’s Au Revoir (23) has sneaked in almost under the radar. The four-year-old son of Singspiel was third at Moonee Valley last week.

Ante-post tip: Mutual Regard at 20-1 (best price now 11.0 Sportsbet)

Myer Classic Preview

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The last of four Group 1 races at Flemington on Saturday is the $500,000 Myer Classic with a maximum field of 16 headed by Sweet Idea.

Gai Waterhouse trains the tough daughter of Snitzel who refused to be passed in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield last time. Although that was only a Group 2, it does look the best form on offer here and several of her vanquished rivals are back for another crack at her here.

The bookmakers have installed Tristarc fourth May’s Dream as the favourite to gain her revenge. She came from well off the pace and was forced to run wide into the straight but never looked like landing a blow. Darren Weir trains the filly who won the Australasian Oaks and will start from barrier 11 while Sweet Idea is in the inside berth. That seems to set up a similar scenario to Caulfield with Sweet Idea likely to play “catch me if you can”.

Tommy Berry will try to make every post a winning one on the four-year-old who already has two Group 2 races under her belt. She came close to Group 1 success when runner-up in the Memsie Stakes and fourth in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.

Chris Waller’s Catkins was beaten by her stablemate Red Tracer in this race last year but looks well held on third in the Tristarc. Damien Oliver has the ride on the daughter of Dubawi who had a perfect position to launch a challenge that day and there cannot have been any real excuses.

Girl Guide finished in second place and had a good sight of the leader from a long way out without being able to close her down. The Robert Smerdon-trained Politeness finished well to take fourth and connections are convinced that she will improve with a more even gallop. The unplaced Diamond Drille and Enquare will struggle to get involved in the finish but the one that caught my eye was Girl In Flight.

The grey does not have particularly inspiring form figures but ran on well in the home straight under hands and heels. She was always running into a pocket and could arguably have finished third with a clear passage. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride on her but she has received a terrible draw in barrier 17. She is showing at around 40-1 on the Tote as a result and could be one for a little each-way on the day.

Solicit has fared much better in barrier five for local trainers Matthew Ellerton and Simon Zahra. She got no run at all in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and is better judged on her second to Dear Demi in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley.

Sweet Idea @6.50 Sportsbet

Girl In Flight @21.0 Bet365 Non runner

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

Coolmore Stud Stakes Preview

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The Group 1 action at Flemington on Saturday begins with the Coolmore Stud Stakes in which Rich Enuff bids to regain the winning thread after his narrow defeat in the Caulfield Guineas.

Ken Key’s son of Written Tycoon was just run down in the closing stages by Shooting To Win after making most of the running over 1600m. The colt won his first three races in great style this spring including the Group 2 Danehill Stakes over 1200m. He was stepped up to 1400m next time in the Guineas Prelude and recorded another impressive victory but there were still a few concerns about the extended trip at Caulfield.

He is a naturally free-running colt and Michael Rodd had trouble settling him in the Guineas. He used up a lot of energy early in the race and did not quite last home. Rich Enuff has drawn barrier 10 but that is not a problem on the straight course. Barriers 8 and 9 have been the most successful in this race in the past and the only slight concern is whether the Guineas has left its mark on Rich Enuff. There has been no sign of it in his work which has been described as brilliant by connections. His form is outstanding and he is the one to beat here.

Gerald Ryan’s Rubick won the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes last time out and will start from barrier one under Kerrin McEvoy. John O’Shea’s Godolphin filly Earthquake is in the next barrier with James McDonald in the saddle. She is one of three fillies in the race and is yet to finish out of the money in eight starts. The famous blue colours will also be carried by Ghibellines.

Chris Waller’s Brazen Beau could be a danger having finished runner-up in the Group 1 J.J. Atkins Stakes. He then finished fifth in the Danehill so will have to improve to reverse the form with Rich Enuff. Earthquake is joined by Eloping and Bring Me The Maid as the fairer sex attempt to upset the boys in the sprinting division.

Eloping was third in the Group 2 McEwen Stakes behind Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee. She has since won the Group 3 Champagne Stakes and Listed Blue Sapphire Stakes and starts from barrier 12 under Stephen Baster. The dark horse of the race could be Joseph Pride’s Kuro who has won his last four races in Sydney. These included the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes but this is a step up in class.

Craig Williams rides Scissor Kick, trained by Paul Messara. He is tough and consistent and finished runner-up in the Group 1 Golden Rose over 1400m but is equally effective over this trip. He could be the each-way value but Rich Enuff looks the one to be on.

Rich Enuff @3.20 Ladbrokes