Category: Australian Horse Racing

Lexus Stakes Preview

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Saturday’s Group 3 Lexus Stakes is the last chance for horses to book their place in the line-up for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. The race carries automatic qualification for the winner and all bar one of the runners still hold an entry in the big race.

Andrew Balding was forced to withdraw Side Glance from the Mackinnon Stakes with an injury but could still pick up a nice prize with Lord Van Percy. The four-year-old made his Australian debut in the Herbert Power Stakes earlier this month when he was a staying-on fifth behind Big Memory.

Kerrin McEvoy had his first ride on the gelding that day and he will have learned a great deal from the race. Lord Van Percy pulled hard early on and then had to switch wide into the home turn to make his run. He never looked like troubling the leaders but was only a length and a quarter behind Protectionist at the line. That horse was all the rage for the Melbourne Cup afterwards.

Big Memory held off Signoff by half a length and most pundits expect the form to be reversed here. That is down to Big Memory’s penalty plus the fact that he made no impression in the Caulfield Cup. To be fair, Tony McEvoy’s runner had a terrible draw that day and will find it much easier to get into a rhythm here.

Lord Van Percy, formerly “Van Percy” but renamed to race in Australia, has always been a decent handicapper in the UK. As a three-year-old he travelled well into his races but didn’t always find as much off the bridle as expected. He has raced in a hood for most of his career but seems more resilient this season, battling on well to beat Havana Cooler for a decent prize at Goodwood.

He followed that with a terrific run in the Ebor Handicap when second to Mutual Regard. The winner is a strong Irish fancy for Tuesday’s Cup and Lord Van Percy could well give the form a boost on Saturday. Lord Van Percy is part-owned by OTI Racing who almost won the Melbourne Cup with Luca Cumani’s Bauer in 2008.

Signoff also ran well in the Group 3 David Jones Cup and was under pressure a long way out in the Herbert Power. I just feel that McEvoy will be able to keep his mount closer to the pace this time and use his turn of foot to good effect.

Another horse familiar to UK racing fans is Caravan Rolls On who used to be in the care of Peter Chapple-Hyam. He won the Group 3 Geelong Cup last week but is still not certain of a place in Tuesday’s field so has one more crack at it on Saturday. Craig Williams has been booked to ride the seven-year-old who will start from barrier one. Shocking achieved the Lexus/Melbourne Cup double in 2009 but it is certainly a tall order.

Lord Van Percy @7-1 Bet365 Non-runner

Caravan Rolls On @9-1 Sportsbet

Victoria Derby Preview

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The $1.5million Victoria Derby has attracted a maximum field at Flemington on Saturday but that has not stopped punters piling in to back the Gai Waterhouse-trained Hampton Court.

Waterhouse trained the winner of this race back in 1995 with Nothin’ Leica Dane and Hampton Court has followed a very similar route. Both horses won the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick prior to coming here and the Melbourne Cup winning trainer is typically bullish about his prospects.

His victory over First Seal and Sweynesse certainly reads well with the latter running a decent race to finish eighth behind Adelaide in the Cox Plate last weekend. Hampton Court is by Redoute’s Choice and this will be a new trip for him. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy will also have to plot a passage through this large field from barrier eleven. McEvoy has never ridden a Victoria Derby winner and this will be his first ride on Hampton Court so there are reasons for opposing the short-priced favourite.

Damien Oliver has won this race four times and will fancy his chances aboard Preferment from barrier 6. The colt is still a maiden after six races but Chris Waller has fitted the blinkers for Saturday following his narrow defeat by Nozomi in the Geelong Classic.

One of the best trials for this race was the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase won by Moonovermanhattan. Craig Newitt faces a similar problem to McEvoy from barrier twelve but his mount overcame a wide draw to win last time and likes to be up with the pace. He was always tracking the leaders in the Vase and kept on well up the straight. He should confirm placings with the New-Zealand trained Atmosphere who was a length and three-quarters away in second but the unlucky horse was Bondeiger.

Danny O’Brien trains the War Pass colt who was shuffled back early on in the Vase. He attempted to make up ground turning for home but was almost brought to a standstill on the bend when colliding with a rival. It was to his credit that he stayed on again to be beaten only four lengths in seventh place. He is drawn in barrier 1 with Atmosphere in barrier 4 and I fancy his chances of turning the tables on that one.

Bondeiger had won his previous two starts and has been well supported this week in anticipation of a bold showing. I think it will be difficult to keep Moonovermanhattan out of the frame despite his draw and both he and Bondeiger represent good each-way chances against the favourite.

Moonovermanhattan @8-1 Ladbrokes

Bondeiger @9-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Mackinnon Stakes Preview

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There are four Group 1 races on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday including the $1million Mackinnon Stakes.

A year ago Andrew Balding’s Side Glance claimed the prize with a gutsy run, holding off Dear Demi by three-quarters of a length. The seven-year-old is rapidly becoming as well-known in Australia as he is in the UK after finishing third in the Caulfield Stakes and fourth in last week’s Cox Plate.

His run in the Cox Plate was typical in that he kept battling on when looking certain to be swamped by those finishing in behind. At the line he was barely half a length behind Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide on the wide outside. Included in a group of eight that crossed the line within a length were Foreteller, Happy Trails and Criterion.

You could make a case for each of them but the draw has favoured Side Glance (barrier 7) while Foreteller (10) and Happy Trails (13) must come from his outside. Criterion finished second in the Caulfield Stakes but I’m not sure that barrier one will suit him. He seems to hit a flat spot in his races before running on again and he may find himself trapped on the inner. Foreteller kept responding to pressure and has to be a contender if he can get a good position from the starting gate.

He’s Your Man is bidding for a hat-trick after winning the  Kingston Town Stakes and the Epsom Handicap. The six-year-old will break from barrier five and is an obvious threat while Caulfield Cup runner-up Rising Romance will also be popular with punters.

Jamie Spencer is at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup this weekend so the ride on Side Glance goes to Craig Williams. He won the Mackinnon Stakes on Alcopop in 2012 and there is no better judge of pace around Flemington.

I would have fancied Roger Varian’s Farraaj to run a big race with a low draw but he is on the wide outside in barrier 15. Adelaide managed to overcome a similar handicap last week but Farraaj is much more of a free-running type and won’t be ideally suited by dropping in behind.

Mick Channon did well with Amralah to win nice races at Newbury and Haydock and he now makes his Australian debut for Robert Hickmott. His Haydock win over Hillstar reads well after the runner-up won the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine. The Melbourne Cup was his intended target but he is yet to prove that he stays that distance.

Foreteller @11.0 Sportsbet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

*Side Glance was withdrawn through injury

Adelaide 6-1 for QE Stakes after Cox Plate win

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Trainer Chris Waller may have been disappointed with the performances of his three runners in Saturday’s Cox Plate but he did pick up a fine consolation prize. The brilliant winner Adelaide now joins his stable from Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien with the Queen Elizabeth Stakes as his immediate target.

Adelaide had been popular with punters last week at odds as high as 14-1 but confidence had evaporated following his wide draw in barrier 13. The coolest man on the racecourse was jockey Ryan Moore who settled the colt in last place before passing his rivals one-by-one down the back straight.

He still had plenty of work to do turning for home with The Cleaner having set a decent pace but Adelaide was driven up on the wide outside to score by a short-neck from the favourite Fawkner. Silent Achiever was just a short-head away in third with Side Glance, Foreteller and Happy Trails breathing down their necks.

Adelaide has been a progressive three-year-old this season, winning the Group 3 Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh in May before finishing runner-up to Eagle Top at Royal Ascot. O’Brien has sent the son of Galileo on his travels since, finishing second at Belmont before winning the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington. He was unlucky in running when third to Ectot at Longchamp in the Prix Niel last time out.

O’Brien declared the $3million Cox Plate to be the colt’s target due to his liking for fast ground. The alternative had been the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe which is often run on soft ground in Paris. His decision has been fully vindicated and he is now set to clash with the likes of Just A Way and Lucia Valentina in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Bet365 quote Adelaide at 6-1 in their futures market.

Fawkner lost nothing in defeat and remains 10-1 for the Melbourne Cup next month. New Zealander Silent Achiever stormed home in third and is generally 25-1 for Flemington for which Japan’s Admire Rakti remains favourite at 4-1. The winning time of 2.03.76 was just two tenths of a second outside of Might And Power’s record set in 1998. It is the first time that a European trained horse has won the Cox Plate and the attention now switches to the Melbourne Cup.

O’Brien does not have a runner this year but Ryan Moore has a leading chance on the German-trained Protectionist while confidence is growing behind Irish hope Mutual Regard. Godolphin will also attempt to end their Cup hoodoo when they run both Cavalryman and Willing Foe on November 4th.

Lankan Rupee wins dramatic Manikato Stakes

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The prelude to the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley on Saturday did not disappoint as Lankan Rupee re-instated his name at the top of the world’s sprinters.

Officially rated the best in the world at the start of the season, Lankan Rupee had suffered two shock defeats going into this race. He was beaten by Angelic Light in the McEwen Stakes before being denied by the front-running Buffering in the Moir Stakes.

Connections had insisted that the horse was approaching his best for this race but a wide draw in barrier nine presented jockey Craig Newitt with a dilemma. Should he sit in behind and hope for the gaps to appear or take the bull by the horns and go from the gate. He chose the latter and blasted from the stalls before crossing over in front of old rival Buffering.

He held off the chasing pack in a dramatic finish which saw eight horses covered by barely half a length. Buffering had tried to get to him by never looked likely to do so while Angelic Light got within a short-head at the finishing line. Famous Seamus was just a nose away in third spot with the luckless Rebel Dane fourth and Terravista fifth.

Lankan Rupee then had to survive a dual protest before connections could claim the $1 million prize. Angelic Light’s jockey Damien Oliver and Famous Seamus’ rider Tim Clark both objected on the ground that Lankan Rupee had caused severe interference only 100m from the start. Oliver told the stewards that his mount was nearly brought down while Buffering was also seriously hampered on his inside.

Lankan Rupee has now earned more than $3 million and is set to clash with the likes of Earthquake, Rubick and Chautauqua in the Darley Sprint at Flemington next month. That race is also the target of Europe’s leading sprinter Slade Power, owned by bookmaker Paddy Power.

The five-year-old disappointed on his only previous start outside Europe when only tenth in the Hong Kong Sprint last year. He has won all three starts since culminating in the July Cup at Newmarket. He has shown his flexibility by winning on a variety of different tracks and going but it is an ambitious raid by Ed Lynam’s five-year-old. No doubt the connections of all of those packed in behind Lankan Rupee will also fancy at a crack at the champion sprinter next month.

Sportsbet quote Lankan Rupee at 5.50, the same price as Slade Power, with Chautauqua the clear favourite at 2.80.

Melbourne Cup Update

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The final field is gradually taking shape for the Melbourne Cup and the favourite Admire Rakti has been given the go-ahead despite picking up a 0.5kg penalty for winning the Caulfield Cup. Owner Riichi Kondo had warned that he may divert the horse to the Japan Cup if he received a penalty but those fears were allayed on Tuesday.

The last horse to successfully carry 58.5kg in the race was Think Big in 1975. Only Kingston Town in 1982 and Vintage Crop in 1995 have managed to carry such a large weight into a place since then. Connections cannot really complain as this is the lowest penalty given to the Caulfield Cup winner since Ming Dynasty in 1980.

Godolphin’s quest for a first Melbourne Cup success has been well documented and they have finished runner-up three times. This year’s hopes rest with the veteran Cavalryman and last year’s Ebor winner Willing Foe, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor.

Cavalryman could do no better than twelfth in 2012 but he has seemed better than ever this season. Craig Williams will take the ride on him with James McDonald partnering Willing Foe. A notable European absentee is Marco Botti’s Dandino who finished fifth last year. He missed his intended run in the Caulfield Cup through lameness and has not recovered in time to take his place. The stable will now rely on Seismos who was well beaten at Caulfield.

In last week’s Caulfield Cup Review we picked out Mutual Regard as the best of the European challengers and Damien Oliver has been booked for the ride. The Irish-trained gelding has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in the summer but runs well fresh and could provide former top jockey Johnny Murtagh with the biggest win of his fledgling training career.

The Group 3 Geelong Cup proved a farcical affair with a stop-go gallop but it eventually went to Caravan Rolls On, formerly trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam in England. Now with Danny O’Brien, he is very unlikely to get into the race at Flemington. Connections are hoping that he receives a 2kg penalty to boost his chances of sneaking in.

Junoob will still take his chance in the Cup despite finishing only seventh at Caulfield. He was pushed up early on to try to overcome a wide draw but ending up racing wide and did well to plug on into seventh place. Trainer Chris Waller is still chasing a first win in the great race.

Andreas Wohler’s German stayer Protectionist is still all the rage after his eye-catching run into fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. Ryan Moore has the ride on the Group 2 winner and will be hoping for better luck than he has experienced on Mount Athos (2012) and Dandino last year. The market could get a further shake-up after Fawkner runs in the Cox Plate on Saturday.

*Ante-post Mutual Regard 20-1 Paddy Power