Category: Australian Horse Racing

Manikato Stakes Preview

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As well as the Cox Plate, Moonee Valley also stages the $1million Manikato Stakes this weekend with twelve horses set to go to post on Friday evening. The race looks like a virtual re-run of the Moir Stakes with the first four home back in action.

The seven-year-old Buffering beat Lankan Rupee by a short-head with Rebel Dane the same distance away in third. Angelic Light was just three-quarters of a length away in fourth in a blanket finish.

Trainer Robert Heathcote expressed his satisfaction at the draw on Tuesday with Buffering in barrier four while his main market rivals are on his outside. Lankan Rupee will break from barrier nine with Terravista in seven. Terravista was a comfortable two length winner of the Group 2 The Shorts  last time out but is taking a rise in class. He also came from off the pace last time so it will be interesting to see if he can get to a fast-starter like Buffering.

The bookmakers surprisingly make Terravista the early favourite with Lankan Rupee also preferred to Buffering in the early exchanges. Lankan Rupee was heralded as the next big Aussie superstar after winning three Group 1 races on the bounce. He beat Rebel Dane and Buffering with some ease in the TJ Smith Stakes but has struggled to recapture that form.

He was a 1-5 favourite on his return from a lengthy absence when beaten by Angelic Light here in September. That defeat was blamed on being a little ring-rusty and he was confidently expected to atone last time. Craig Newitt appeared comfortable tracking Buffering into the home turn, taking a peek to his outside to see where any possible danger might come from. Once let down, he did not find the acceleration that had been expected and it was Rebel Dane that finished the stronger in third.

Connections were boosted by a brilliant track gallop at Caulfield on Saturday morning but a wide draw must be a concern. He broke from Buffering’s inside last time but allowed the winner to take the lead. Heathcote does not believe that even Lankan Rupee has the pace to cross Buffering but Newitt will be under pressure to play his cards earlier this time. Rebel Dane must again have solid place claims but he does not get his head in front very often these days. He is drawn alongside Buffering and Craig Williams will try not to give him too much rope.

Buffering @6.00 Sportsbet*

*Sportsbet Special Offer – stakes refunded on your first bet on Manikato Stakes if your horse finishes second (up to $100)

Cox Plate Preview

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The $3million Group 1 Cox Plate takes place at Moonee Valley Racecourse this Saturday. Sportsbet are repeating their generous Caulfield Cup offer of refunding stakes if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the big race.

The favourite is the Robert Hickmott-trained Fawkner who looks to have drawn nicely in barrier four. He is bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Makybe Diva in 2005, coincidentally from the same stall. Racing in the familiar Lloyd Williams colours, the son of Reset claimed the Caulfield Cup last year when holding off the fast finishing Dandino.

He chalked up another Group 1 victory when beating Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes last time out. That was over the same distance as Saturday’s race and he has to be respected. The form of the Caulfield Stakes is often a good guide here and the first five are all in the field.

Side Glance has been a good money-spinner for the Andrew Balding stable and set a leisurely pace before quickening up turning for home. Fawkner always had him in his sights and held off the late run of Criterion with Sacred Falls catching the eye in fourth. Zac Purton may have ridden a fine race in the Caulfield Cup but he did not cover himself in glory on Sacred Falls. He was well out of his ground on the turn for home and will surely keep closer to the pace on Saturday. Barrier nine is not ideal but he must go well.

The biggest sufferer in the draw was Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide who is in the thirteen stall. He won the Group 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington and ran well when third to Ectot in France last time. He looked unlucky that day but the winner did not advertise the form in the Arc and it is going to take a mighty effort to win from the outside.

Sacred Falls is trained by Chris Waller who also saddles Foreteller and Royal Descent. Foreteller looks held having finished eighth at Caulfield while Royal Descent has finished runner-up in her last four races. She is partnered by Glen Boss from barrier three and should run her usual game race. Fawkner and Sacred Falls look the big two here with Adelaide’s chances depending on how he copes with his wide berth.

Sacred Falls @6.00 Sportsbet*

*Special bet – stakes refunded up to a maximum $100 if 2nd, 3rd or 4th

Caulfield Cup Review

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Admire Rakti defied top weight to land the Caulfield Cup for Japan under an inspired ride from Zac Purton, defeating Rising Romance and the fast finishing Lucia Valentina.

The winner was thought to be a more likely candidate for the two-mile Melbourne Cup for which he is now the clear 5-1 favourite. Lucia Valentina confirmed the form of her recent win in the Turnbull Stakes with the Peter Moody-trained pair Brambles and Lidari running almost pound for pound in fourth and sixth respectively. The concern for supporters of Lucia Valentina at Flemington will be whether she will see out the two miles.

The British challenge was reduced to Marco Botti’s Seismos following the defection of stable companion Dandino through lameness. Seismos was scrubbed along early in the race to try to get a position from the one barrier but quickly back-peddled when the race began in earnest.

Although Admire Rakti was impressive, there are two obvious factors why the current odds make no appeal. He will almost certainly receive a penalty for the Melbourne Cup and the draw could always go against him. Zac Purton had described him as “hit and miss” before the race, hardly an overwhelming endorsement of the horse’s consistency.

Ironically, punters had plunged on the other Japanese hope Bande who was withdrawn under veterinary advice at the eleventh hour. He could now be re-routed to the Melbourne Cup but, as with Dandino, you don’t really want injury problems so close to a big race.

Protectionist, promoted to favourite after finishing fourth in the Herbert Power, is now quoted at 8-1. The form of that race was not exactly boosted by the winner Big Memory who could finish only tenth in the Caulfield Cup. The German horse impressed Craig Williams and has form over extreme distances but he has never been the easiest horse to keep sound and would not be risked on firm ground.

The challenge from Britain and Ireland is pretty low key this year following disappointments with strongly fancied runners in previous years. Perhaps their best prospect of a victory lies with Irish runner Mutual Regard, trained by recently-retired top jockey Johnny Murtagh. The five-year-old son of Hernando has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in August. Murtagh decided to keep him fresh for the Melbourne Cup and everything has gone well in the build-up to the race. He could still represent some each-way value at around 20-1.

Mutual Regard (Melbourne Cup) @20-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Caulfield Cup 2014 Preview

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The draw for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup has delivered a huge blow to the hopes of last year’s runner-up Dandino by pitching him into the outside barrier.

Craig Williams had been hopeful that the Melbourne Cup fifth would go one better at Caulfield this year with maximum confidence emanating from the Marco Botti stable. Dandino almost overcame a wide draw a year ago when flashing home in second from barrier 16 behind Fawkner. Everything has gone perfectly in his preparation but Williams will now have to ride the race of his life to get the seven-year-old home in front.

Craig Newitt faces a different set of problems aboard the stables other runner, Seismos. The son of Dalakhani beat Willing Foe by a neck in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time out and he has drawn the one barrier. Newitt will have to decide whether to try to hold his position on the inside or tuck in behind and hope that he does not get shuffled too far back.

Japanese top weight Admire Rakti has fared much better with barrier eight but this looks like a prep run for the Melbourne Cup. The two favourites to take the $3 million prize on Saturday are Lucia Valentina (drawn 12) and the other Japanese hope Bande (drawn 10). Lucia Valentina’s claims are obvious after her win in the Turnbull Stakes but she was beaten on her only previous start at this distance.

She beat French import Lidari in that race and the runner-up has sneaked in on the withdrawal of My Ambivalent at the eleventh hour. A fine draw in barrier four has further boosted confidence in Luke Nolen’s mount who is a proven stayer. There was only a whisker between he and Brambles in that race but the latter is only a reserve and would be drawn wide if sneaking in.

Horses that fared less well in the draw include Sea Moon and The Offer, drawn 21 and 19 respectively. Christophe Lemaire rides Bande with the intention apparently to race from the front on the four-year-old. Bande was only a neck behind Admire Rakti in a Grade 2 race at Hanshin in March and is marginally better off at the weights.

The Japanese were extremely disappointed at the failure of their strong raid on the prestigious Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe and are aiming to restore some International pride with a big win in Australia.

Chris Waller saddles up four runners led by Metropolitan winner Junoob from gate 15. That draw may not be unsurmountable and he looks to have a better chance than Hawkspur (9), Moriarty (7) and Who Shot Thebarman (16).

Lidari @16.0 bet365

Bande @9.0 Sportsbet*

*Sportsbet special offer – money back as a free bet up to $100 on first bet if 2nd, 3rd or 4th

Caulfield Guineas Preview

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It is Guineas weekend at Caulfield and the big race is preceded by the Thousand Guineas on Saturday.

The Melbourne Racing Club’s decision to move the Group 1 Thousand Guineas to the Saturday is looking questionable after only eleven runners were declared. The option for runners from the Flight Stakes to run here has been virtually removed with only a week between races.

The favourite here is Go Indy Go, winner of last season’s Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick. Lumosty won her maiden race by nine lengths and has been all the rage this week with Craig Williams on board. Bring Me The Maid looks well drawn in barrier four and Peter Moody is hoping for an improved display in first-time blinkers after the filly flopped in the Guineas Prelude.

The winner that day was Afleet Esprit who could provide Damien Oliver with a sixth Thousand Guineas victory. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig’s star filly has only been out of the frame once in six starts and looks better value than the favourite.

Rich Enuff is the one horse that punters want to know in the Caulfield Guineas and his price has contracted to around 5-4 despite a wide draw. The son of Written Tycoon has not been prevented from winning in his last two starts by a similar disadvantage and has plenty of speed from the gate.

Gai Waterhouse has been quite bullish about the prospects of Almalad this week but she must have been disheartened to learn of his draw on the wide outside in stall 13. Almalad has chalked up victories in the J.J. Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm and the Bill Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley. Waterhouse is confident that he will prove good enough to take his chance in the Cox Plate but he will need to run a big race on Saturday to win from his draw.

Looks Like The Cat has finished runner-up to Rich Enuff on his last two starts and should run his usual game race but the one I think that could cause an upset is Shooting To Win. He was very impressive when beating Scissor Kick by three lengths in the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes last time out. Barrier eight puts him on the inside of the fancied horses and he should be able to stay clear of trouble.

Shooting To Win (Caulfield Guineas) @7.50 Sportsbet

Afleet Esprit (Thousand Guineas) @6.0 Sportsbet