Category: NRL

Four Nations Final Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Three weeks of excitement culminates in a final that could go pear shaped pretty quickly if the reports of a savage virus running through the Australia camp is anything to go by.

The virus threatens to derail the confidence gaining Australians who are desperate to overturn a first round loss to the Kiwi’s, and save their coaches’ job.  As the media swarm on Tim Sheens and the entire Kangaroos squad, the focus for the New Zealanders has been on finding a way to match the intensity they operated at in game one but have failed to match since.  That task has become a lot tougher with the scratching of influential hooker Thomas Leuluai (with a shoulder injury), who was shaping as an important piece of the Kiwi’s ruck defence.

Another major obstacle in the way of a New Zealand Four Nations win is history;  The Kiwis haven’t won consecutive games against the Kangaroos since 1953.  On the other hand the Wellington venue could provide a home town lift, and the Kiwi’s are always capable of springing a surprise in the final of major tournaments.

The last time the sides met (in the first round of the Four Nations) the Kiwi’s thumped the Kangaroos sprinting away to a 30-12 win.  The win was based on aggressive defence and added pressure on the opposition’s superstars.  However, since then the Aussie team have got their act together with impressive wins over England and Samoa.  As the Kangaroos get more time with each other, and as Tim Sheens settles on his best side, they continue to improve and appear to be on course to become the fearsome all-conquering side we all know.

In Greg Inglis and Cameron Smith they probably have the two best International Rugby League players on the planet, and big finals are usually won by big plays, by big players.  That’s why I can’t see them losing this one.  Close, but Australia by 6.

Odds

Australia $1.76

New Zealand $2.10

Four Nations odds courtesy of Sportingbet Australia.

Teams 


New Zealand: 1-Peta Hiku, 2-Jason Nightingale, 3-Shaun Kenny-Dowall, 4-Dean Whare, 5-Manu Vatuvei, 6-Kieran Foran, 7-Shaun Johnson, 8-Jesse Bromwich, 9-Issac Luke, 10-Adam Blair, 11-Simon Mannering (c), 12-Kevin Proctor, 13-Jason Taumalolo

Interchange: 14-Lewis Brown, 15-Greg Eastwood, 16-Martin Taupau, 17-Tohu Harris, 18-Gerard Beale, Bodene Thompson (two to be omitted).

Australia: 1. Greg Inglis, 2. Josh Mansour, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Dylan Walker, 5. Sione Mata’utia, 6. Daly Cherry-Evans, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Sam Thaiday, 12. Greg Bird, 13. Corey Parker.

Interchange: 14. Boyd Cordner, 15. Robbie Farah, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Ryan Hoffman, 18. Ben Hunt, 19. Josh Jackson, 20. David Klemmer (three to be omitted).

Win Big – Four Nations Special

First Try Scorer – Adam Blair – $67

Four Nations odds courtesy of Sportingbet Australia.

Four Nations Finalists Found After More Drama

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Drama and Destruction were the themes in two contrasting Four Nations matches this weekend.  New Zealand and Australia’s dominance of the Four Nations continued with both sealing finals births.

New Zealand v England (16-14)

The Kiwis scraped into the Four Nations final with a narrow victory over a gallant English side in the penultimate round of the Four Nations.

The Kiwis only needed to avoid a heavy defeat to sew up a Four Nations final birth, but instead chose the more dignified route, winning by two points in front a raucous Dunedin crowd.

The game was close for the duration with only a conversion separating the sides after Gareth Widdop cruelly hit the upright with this first two attempts.  Despite being close, this one always had the feel of a New Zealand victory, thanks in part to their fleet footed forward pack that ate up metres in the middle of the park.

A frenetic start saw four tries in the first 30 minutes, all to wingers, a theme that continued for the rest of the game.  Jason Nightingale’s early opener was cancelled out by a Ryan Hall effort before Josh Charnley briefly gave England their only lead of the night.  The wingers then continued to dominate the key plays.  Nightingale scored a try – Vatuvei bombed a try – Hall bombed a try – Hall scored a try.

Thomas Leuluai made a massive impact for the Kiwi’s both defensively and in the attacking end, compounding Isaac Luke to a fair few minutes on the bench.  Simon Mannering was epic in defence too and worthy of a mention.  England again showed they can match it with the top two of International league, and in James Graham, Geaorge Burgess and Daryl Clark have three forwards to build their future plans around.  That’s provided George Burgess doesn’t follow his brother to Rugby Union.

The finish lacked points but in keeping with the tournament trend, was full of tension.

The Kiwi’s can celebrate by turning their attention to the Four Nations final in Wellington on Saturday night.  The English, well they celebrated with a visit to a famous Dunedin student flat and smashed the front door down.

 

Australia v Samoa (44-18)

Joining New Zealand in the Final are the Kangaroos as they easily saw off the surprise package Samoans in Wollongong by 44-18.

After shaky performances in the first two weeks of the Four Nations the Australians finally played to their potential, relying on superstars Greg Inglis, Cooper Cronk and Daly Cherry-Evans.

Cherry-Evans’ 30 minute breakaway try effectively sealed as much and ended Samoa’s bold Four Nations campaign.  Ill-discipline was the killer for the Samoans, Joey Leilua who was so dynamic against the Kiwi’s last week only bothered chalking up penalties this week rather than the more sought after Rugby League stats such as metres, line breaks and tries.  Josh McGuire who many believe should’ve have been playing for Australia, and not Samoa, was their most effective forward, while surprise package David Klemmer saw his stocks rise with an exceptional display.

The result delivers the expected Four Nations final and a repeat of last years Old Trafford showpiece.

Four Nations Week 3 Preview

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Will week three of the Four Nations finally see the favourites dominant their opponents?  Can Samoa scare a third straight team?  Will England’s point deferential struggle let their game?

Those will be the key questions being answered in week three of the Four Nations.  Let’s look at the two games.

New Zealand v England

The Kiwi’s shift venues form the beautiful afternoon sun in Whangarei to the closed roofed Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin to take on the desperate English in the week’s first game.  The game features and interesting test for mathematicians as they calculate the scenarios that will decide the Four Nations finalists.  At this stage, if New Zealand win or draw they are through to the final;  if they lose heavily then they need Samoa to get close to, or beat, Australia

Both teams met lady luck last week.  The Kiwi’s escaped a stern Samoan test and were fortunate to cross for a late four pointer to win the duel for the fictional blonde in the green dress.  England on the other hand got stood up; they narrowly lost to Australia thanks to a controversial final minute TMO decision.

Both sides have played some decent football in the Four Nations thus far.  New Zealand’s best was missing last week, but they have added experience to that side by reinstating Thomas Leuluai and Greg Eastwood to the interchange bench.  Isaac Luke will be better for last week’s hit out and he should be able to ignite the Kiwi’s play utilising the offloads of Bromwich and Blair and the rest of the hard running forward pack.  However, their susceptible backbone has errors in them and will need to be at top form to control the exciting English equivalents.

The geezers have shown that they have improved since last years World Cup.  In last year’s semi-final they suffered a last minute loss to the Kiwi’s and despite some reservations about their ability to close out games, I’m backing them to be right up for this challenge.

Key contributors James Graham and Gareth Widdop will look to exploit a soft New Zealand middle and error prone back three.  In Ryan Hall and Josh Charnley they have two World class wingers who could benefit from the pressure instilled on the nervy Kiwis.

I’m picking an upset here.  England by 6.

Odds

New Zealand $1.45

England $2.80

Four Nations odds courtesy of Sportingbet.

Teams

New Zealand: 1. Peta Hiku, 2. Jason Nightingale, 3. Shaun Kenny-Dowall, 4. Dean Whare, 5. Manu Vatuvei, 6. Kieran Foran, 7. Shaun Johnson, 8. Jesse Bromwich, 9. Issac Luke, 10. Adam Blair, 11. Simon Mannering (c), 12. Kevin Proctor, 13. Jason Taumalolo. Interchange: 14. Thomas Leuluai, 15. Greg Eastwood, 16. Martin Taupau, 17. Tohu Harris, 18. Lewis Brown (one to be omitted).

England: 1. Sam Tomkins, 2. Josh Charnley, 3. Kallum Watkins, 4. Dan Sarginson, 5. Ryan Hall, 6. Gareth Widdop, 7. Matty Smith, 8. George Burgess, 9. Josh Hodgson, 10. James Graham, 11. Liam Farrell, 12. Joel Tomkins, 13. Sean O’Loughlin (c). Interchange:
14. Daryl Clark, 15. Brett Ferres, 16. Tom Burgess, 17. Chris Hill.

 

Australia v Samoa

Samoa have been a revelation in the Four Nations thus far but I fear their energy may have already been consumed in their sterling efforts in weeks one and two.  They should be no match for the World Champion Australian outfit, but they could still influence the finalists based on the points differential calculations.

Australia have been forced to reshuffle their back;  Beau Scott forced out with injury and replaced by Josh Papalii in the run on side.    While Samoa have opted for a tactical change and bring in nightclub troublemaker Reni Maitua.  Expect the Aussies to be far too strong in this matchup.  The structured play and kicking game of Cooper Cronk should force Samoa into mistakes.  Of particular interest to a lot of pundits is the centre battle;  Jennings and Walker v Lafai and Leila will be brilliant to watch.

Odds

Australia $1.09

Samoa $7.75

Teams

Australia: 1. Greg Inglis, 2. Josh Mansour, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Dylan Walker, 5. Sione Mata’utia, 6. Daly Cherry-Evans, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Sam Thaiday, 12. Greg Bird, 13. Corey Parker. Interchange: 14. Boyd Cordner, 15. Robbie Farah, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Ryan Hoffman, 18. Ben Hunt, 19. David Klemmer, 20. Matt Moylan (three to be omitted).

Samoa: 1 Tim Simona, 2 Antonio Winterstein, 3 Tim Lafai, 4 Joseph Leilua, 5 Daniel Vidot, 6 Ben Roberts, 7 Kyle Stanley, 8 Isaac Liu, 9 Pita Godinet, 10 David Fa’alogo (c), 11 Frank Pritchard, 12 Leeson Ah Mau, 13 Josh McGuire. Interchange: 14 Dunamis Lui, 15 Reni Maitua, 16 Sauaso Sue, 17 Mose Masoe, 18 Jesse Sene-Lefao, 19 Tautau Moga (two to be omitted).

Four Nations odds courtesy of Luxbet.

Kiwi’s Stun Dizzy Kangaroos (Four Nations)

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Four Nations got underway on Saturday night with a pair of captivating rugby league matches that lived up to the pre match hype and rewarded the huge Suncorp Stadium crowd.

In the showpiece match the Kiwi’s upset an injured and disorientated Australian team to record their first victory over their fierce rivals for four years.  That match followed a Samoa / England curtain raiser that defied the tag to deliver a contest befitting of its own feature.

The Four Nations is now much more than a one horse race; the Australians look vulnerable.

Australia v New Zealand

In a match of high drama but little quality New Zealand exploited some Australian rustiness to surprise the Rugby League World and win 30-18.  Australia, already without a number of key players also lost Daly Cherry Evans and Greg Inglis half way through the game to injury and illness.  The injuries turned the Australian into rabbles. Robbie Farah and Cameron Smith jumped between hooker and the haves, Dylan Walker made a number of errors filling in at fullback, and Aidan Guerra couldn’t stop the Kangaroo’s frail defence when he moved into the centres.  The changes were too much for the Australians; their completion rate suffered, and they failed to score a point after the 21st minute.

But the night belonged to a gutsy New Zealand side that, to be fair, weren’t without their own personnel setbacks.  The Kiwi’s responded well to periods of the game where they should’ve gone behind, should’ve dropped their heads.  The first was Beau Scott’s soft minute try, which was closely followed by Jason Nightingale butchering a try over the line.  Kiwi teams of yesteryear would have given it away, but Steven Kearney’s 2014 version responded brilliantly with tries to Kevin Procter and Lewis Brown either side of another soft effort from Greg Inglis.

The second half saw the Kiwis take advantage of more Australian mistakes and in turn play with a lot more confidence and enterprise.  The offloads of Jesse Bromwich and Adam Blair allowed the likes of Shaun Johnson and Keiran Foran to run at a broken defensive line to make the inroads which stretched the lead.  Dean Whare, Shaun Johnson and Jason Nightingale all crossed the line to extend the winning margin to the biggest win over their rivals since the 24-0 win in the 2005 Four Nations final.

The Kiwi’s will take a heap of confidence from their dazzling display, and will take heart in the fact that the rest of the tournament is to be played on home soil.  The win should also galvanise the belief in a number of squad members who had yet to experience a wine against the Kangaroos.

England v Samoa

As the beaten semi-finalists at last years Rugby League World Cup England should have been too strong for the tournament debutants, however they only narrowly avoided a shock loss to Samoa.  Samoa’s stirring effort in going down 26-32 proved their inclusion in the Four Nations was justified.  Feeding off a passionate Samoan based crowd the NRL-packed Samoan line up tested their more favoured opponents and even lead by 2 with 19 minutes remaining.  England did just enough; led by outstanding talisman James Graham and experienced pivot Gareth Widdop they were ultimately too strong.

The English exerted most of their pressure through reigning Super League Man of Steele Daryl Clark who was a constant threat with ball in hand, while the Tomkins brothers (Sam and Joel) also combined well and both crossed for tries.

For the unlucky Samoan’s they’ll be better for the experience and will also get the chance to make adjustments to their side and reintroduce their suspended stars.  One such change should be the inclusion of Pita Godinet who provided a real spark from dummy half and kept his side in the game with two well-taken tries.  Frank Pritchard was immense too.  His switch of allegiance will add massive value to the Samoan Four Nations campaign.  Their efforts to back up their dazzling first up effort will be interesting to watch.

We’ll review Week Two of the Four Nations later in the week.

 

NRL Grand Final Review

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Forty-three years of heartache has been replaced by an epic hangover for Michael MacGuire’s Rabbitohs team after they demolished (on the scoreboard at least, the actual game was slightly closer) the Bulldogs in Sunday’s NRL Grand Final.

The win reduced Greg Inglis to tears and Sam Burgess’ face to smithereens, but crucially it ends a dramatic drought in South Sydney silverware. The game itself always felt like it was going in South Sydney’s favour. They dominated possession; completed their sets well; looked more dangerous with ball in hand (in particular centres Walker and Auva’a). They even crossed for a disallowed try before finally getting on the score sheet through punters favourite Alex Johnston.

Despite dominating, Souths did not take all of their chances. Things were actually quite tight and still 6-6 after 55 minutes until George Burgess scored. For what it is worth, I actually thought George Burgess was better than Clive Churchill Medal brother Sam in this game. George too suffered the indignity of a head injury yet still managed a huge workload in just over 60 minutes.

George Burgess – 18 Hit Ups for 200m. 3 Tackle Busts. 1 Try. 21 Tackles

Sam Burgess – 22 Hit Ups for 207m. 31 Tackles.

Other than some Tony Williams busts the Bulldogs showed little penetration in attack. Trent Hodkinson went missing, and Josh Reynolds confused the times to run / kick. The weight of pressure eventually told on the Blue and White’s; as a result they fell away significantly in the final quarter. Souths were able to expose some big holes in the middle of the Bulldog’s defence, past a tiring James Graham and co who were struggling without the fortification provided by Mick Ennis.

The Rabbits win is a fair reflection on a great season; a deserved NRL Grand Final win. The turnaround from the 2006 wooden spoon season is nothing short of miraculous. Granted, Russell Crowe has thrown a load of money at the club (and its rumoured James Packer will too if he buys a stake), but take nothing away form a clearly dedicated team who appear to like each other and get on well. The post game emotion outlines a deep respect for the club members, and is in stark contrast to the dressing room scenes described by Kevin Pietersen in the England cricket team, proving camaraderie can heighten performance.

The bookies won’t be at all surprised by the result of the NRL Grand Final. They would have expected to pay out on the Rabbitohs, and on Sam Burgess taking home the Clive Churchill medal. Of my predictions last week none of them were useful; George Burgess scored the second try (not the first I had him for) meaning some sites may have offered money back; Adam Reynolds let us down, and the Bulldogs couldn’t muster first half points.

Souths’ victory brings an NRL season to an end, however the Four Nations tournament begins October 25.  I’ll report back in closer to the time with some tips for the tournament featuring Australia, NZ, England and Samoa.

NRL Grand Final Preview

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It has arrived. The conclusion to a competition that is consistently viewed as one of the most even in the World. The end of the constant headlines that the players attract for off field antics (think Mitchell Pearce, The ASADA Sharks, Todd Carney). And sans State of Origin, the pièce de résistance, of the Rugby League calendar.

The Grand Final.

South Sydney and Canterbury are both worthy finalists. They have been the epitome of finals footy. Calm, professional, dedicated and passionate. Despite paving a very different path to the finals; the Rabbitohs qualified third and even earned themselves a week off in the finals; the Bulldogs however stumbled into the playoffs when results went their way, but have fought back strongly to beat the Melbourne, Manly and Penrith; both teams are in with a chance of taking home the Provan-Summons Trophy.

Injury and suspension have added to the drama, and possibly gone some way as to even the scale. Isaac Luke who in my view is one of the most underrated rugby league players on the planet is suspended. Mick Ennis it seems has broken every bone in his foot. The manner in which the teams respond to the loss of their hooker’s may have a massive bearing on this game.

The talking points:

Rabbitohs: The Rabbitohs haven’t won an NRL Grand Final since 1971. Despite assembling an impressive squad over the past few seasons they are yet to put it together and deliver the silverware their members demand. 2014 might be one of their best opportunities if losing Ben Te’o is any indicator. The mix of seasoned professionals (Greg Inglis, Lote Tuqiri, Sam Burgess) and young guns (Luke Keary, Dylan Walker, Alex Johnston) has allowed the Rabbitohs to play an exciting brand of football, one that should be able to run over the Bulldogs in the second half. The only question marks I can see are over their ability to control the ruck without Isaac Luke, and the lack of big game experience (just Inglis and Tuqiri have played in grand finals).

Bulldogs: Des Hasler may end being the best NRL coach of all time. His ability to get the best out of ball playing forwards has been the basis of strong finals runs for both his former Manly side and current Bulldogs crop. James Graham and Josh Jackson are prime examples of the types of players that work well in Dessies setup. But they’ll need a fast start to conquer the strong second half abilities of the Rabbitohs. That task gets though only gets harder without Ennis’ tackling and leadership. Carrying the weight will inevitably fall on the halves pairing of Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson. Their battle with Adam Reynolds will also have a big influence on the result.

Where’s The Money? The money is on the Rabbits. Punters have put down double the amount on the Rabbits ($1.42) than the Bulldogs ($3) to win the NRL Grand Final. This is pretty surprising given the teams shared one win each during the regular season match-ups and both were settled by less than 8 points. Lots of money being placed on the Clive Churchill medal winner too. Sam Burgess is the joint-favourite at $4, but Greg Inglis has received plenty of attention at $4 too.

Our Pick: I really want there to be a reason to pick the Bulldogs. I like the odds. I like the way their forwards play. However, I also know that grand finals are often won by moments of brilliance (Benji Marhsall, Keiran Foran) and not pure grit. South Sydney have the x-factor; the players capable of blowing a game open. They’ve also been hugely impressive in the last few weeks. Although I think the Bulldogs is worth a punt if you have a spare tenner, save the big money for the Rabbitohs. By 12.

Cheeky: Adam Reynolds for Clive Churchill at $9. George Burgess for first try at $21. Bulldogs at half time, Rabbitohs at full time $6.50.

*Odds courtesy of TAB.