March Madness is just one week away and bookmakers are preparing for the most hectic betting frenzy of the year. Sixty-eight college basketball games will take place over three weeks in a knockout tournament, and the winner will be crowned NCAA Champion 2017 on April 3. It always proves to be a thrilling ride for diehard fans and the wider sports loving public, full of buzzer beaters, teams snatching victory from the jaws of defeat and underdogs triumphing.
Last year witnessed the most exciting denouement in memory as Villanova blew a 70-64 lead to end up 74-74 with a mere 4.7 seconds remaining on the clock thanks to a three-pointer at the death from North Carolina. Overtime beckoned but Villanova settled it with an outrageous three-point buzzer shot that led to a court invasion from fans. This year’s NCAA Championships event is shaping up to be another classic, and here we run through the leading contenders and some interesting long-shots.
Top Seeds and Favourites
Four regional top seeds have been chosen by the Division 1 men’s basketball committee: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga and Baylor. They are deemed to be the pinnacle of the 68 teams taking part in March Madness, and upon announcing it committee chair Mark Hollis named defending champion Villanova the overall top seed. The bookmakers disagree. They have made Kansas (15/2 with Sky Bet) the pre-tournament favourites. They are slightly ahead of last year’s beaten finalists the North Carolina Tar Heels (also 15/2 with Sky Bet, but a point or so higher than Kansas with many bookmakers) in the betting, followed by Gonzaga (10/1 with William Hill), UCLA (10/1 with Ladbrokes) and Villanova (10/1 with William Hill and Bet365).
It is all very congested as Duke and Kentucky are both 12/1 and Arizona, Louisville and Oregon are all in the mix. The betting has shifted considerably in the last few weeks. When the seedings were announced, Kansas was favourite, followed by Gonzaga and then Nova. Now North Carolina has muscled its way in, and Gonzaga and Nova have been pushed out in terms of price. A few weeks ago Gonzaga was unbeaten but has now finally lost, to BYU, and gone to 31-1 atop the West Coast division. That air of invincibility has now gone and the price has drifted out to 10-1. Nova and Kansas have an identical record of 28-3, leading the Big East and Big 12 divisions respectively. North Carolina, meanwhile, is 26-6 at the top of the ACC. Of all the teams, Nova looks an interesting option at 10/1. They were named overall top seed for good reason and have been great on the road, with a superb record against top opponents.
Long Shots
The bookmakers really do not like the look of Baylor, one of the four top seeds, and have made them huge outsiders. They are as low as 20/1 with some, but William Hill is offering a very generous 40/1, so you have an interesting, highly rated long shot right there. Head over to the Big Ten and you will find more interesting schools to bet on if you are looking for long odds. A few weeks ago Purdue was on a roll and could be backed at 75/1 for the UCAA Championships, which was a great price. That form has continued and they have stormed to the top of the Big Ten, with a record of 25-6, and the odds on them have dropped dramatically, but they still look a good bet at 33/1 with Paddy Power. An even longer shot would be the Maryland Terrapins, second behind Purdue in the Big Ten and on 24-7 for the season, with better recent form than Purdue. They can be backed at 100/1 with Bet365. That is amazing when you consider Sky Bet will only go to 40/1 on Maryland, but it serves to illustrate the chaotic nature of March Madness, as bookmakers struggle to agree on a consensus due to the sheer number of teams taking part, so there is plenty of value to be had.
