Category: Betting

2015 F1 Chinese Grand Prix Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Sebastian Vettel showed the world that Lewis Hamilton won’t necessarily be cruising to another World Championship title this year, with a comfortable victory at the Malaysian Grand Prix a fortnight ago.

Despite that, Lewis Hamilton managed to claim pole position for the third time this season in Saturday’s qualifying, with Vettel having to settle for a third position, behind Hamilton’s Mercedes’ team-mate, Nico Rosberg.

The big question now is: can Ferrari maintain their impressive pace from a wet and humid Sepang in the cooler climes of Shanghai?

After a difficult year with Red Bull, Vettel is looking much more comfortable in his Ferrari – and let’s not forget that this is the man who won four consecutive Driver’s Championships between 2010 and 2013 – clocking up a joint record of a remarkable 13 wins in 2013.

Hamilton, meanwhile, also had pole position in Shanghai last year and held onto his lead to be first past the checkered flag. Indeed, last year’s victory was his third in Shanghai – making him the most successful driver ever at this Grand Prix. But can the Brit repeat that success this year?

Nico Rosberg was just 0.042 off Hamilton in qualifying, and he’ll be desperate to get one over on his team-mate to show that Mercedes’ isn’t all about Hamilton. Vettel, despite taking third, was nearly a second behind the pair.

Ahead of the race, Vettel said: “China is a unique event. It’s a crazy track and crazy conditions, and anything can happen there but for sure, we will be very happy to go there after the great success in Sepang.”

2015 Chinese Grand Prix Starting Grid

  1. Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes
  2. Nico Rosberg – Mercedes
  3. Sebastian Vettel – Ferrari
  4. Felipe Massa – Williams
  5. Valtteri Bottas – Williams
  6. Kimi Raikkonen – Ferrari

Prediction

It looks like it’ll be another three-horse race in Shanghai, with most eyes focussed upon the battle between Hamilton and Vettel. But let’s not forget Rosberg amongst all of this. The German is unquestionably a world class driver and was just a shade behind Hamilton in qualifying.

There’s no real value in backing Lewis Hamilton to win at around 3/10 at most bookies, so your focus would be better placed with either Rosberg at 4/1 or Vettel at 12/1 (both at William Hill). However, Rosberg showed a lot more sharpness in qualifying and he’ll be eager to get his first win of the season here – so he’s my pick.

Tip:

Nico Rosberg – 4/1 at William Hill

Chinese F1 Race Details:

Track: Shanghai International Circuit

Start Time: 07:00 GMT Sunday (14:00 local)

Laps: 56

Track Length: 5.541

Tyre Allocation: Medium (white) and Soft (yellow)

Lap Record: Michael Schumacher – 1:32.238 (Ferrari; 2004)

NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: A Final Look at the Western Conference NBA Championship Race

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The NBA Playoffs are upon us and we present a final analysis of Western contenders and pretenders. Who will you bank on to win?

April 10, 2015

 

One of the most unpredictable NBA regular seasons on record is about to conclude with an unprecedented number of real contenders, all with a genuine chance of NBA glory.

This never happens in the NBA, where the annual champion almost always comes from an elite class of two, maybe three teams. This year, there is no such elite class and instead, we have at least eight contenders that we have to take seriously.

For those looking to lay a bet, this is a huge opportunity. Your best payouts come from teams ranked at the 4-10 range, only those teams almost never win. This season, those teams have as good a chance as they have ever had in the history of NBA basketball.

Today, in our final look at NBA Futures betting for the NBA Championship, we take a look at this year’s Western Conference contenders.

 

The Golden State Warriors:

They were the undisputed best team this regular season and by a distance. They burst out the gates by winning 22 of their first 25 games and somehow, they never let up that pace. The Golden State Warriors will finish the regular season with a franchise record for wins and will also have submitted one of the ten best individual seasons in NBA history.

They have it all. A historically deadly shooting backcourt with a pair of All-Stars that play imperious, beautiful basketball. A team-first identity where no player, not even MVP-to-be Stephen Curry, is bigger than the team. They have a ludicrously dominant +10 average point differential (their average margin of victory), more than twice as large as the next team.

And they are about to finish their second straight season as the NBA’s top defense, which, strangely, people seem not to want to acknowledge about these Warriors.

So, after submitting a historic NBA season, why are we not stating outright that these Warriors will win it all? Teams that play this well over the course of two-plus seasons usually skate into the NBA Finals and are often favoured heavily by bookies. But the odds favourite is the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have won 13 less games in a far weaker conference. What gives?

As good as these Warriors are, we are reluctant to afford them quite the same elite status as other teams who have been as dominant as they have been this season. There are two reasons for this: first, this NBA season is a freak show of depth, especially in the brutal West. Golden State is really, really good, but when the #7 and #8 seed is potentially a real contender (this never happens), then their path to the Finals could also be historically difficult.

The second reason is mental toughness. Golden State are known for being a highly cerebral, soft-spoken and classy team, quietly confident in their qualities. So, what happens when opponents push their buttons or adopt a highly physical approach in the Playoffs? With the exception of Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut, the rest of these Warriors are perceived as a little “soft.” Can they take the mental anguish of championship basketball?

Playoff basketball exposes little flaws in profound ways. Now, this is not to say the Warriors are soft and they’ll be exposed in the postseason. After all, it’s not their first playoff rodeo, and they have some experience at the top level.

Rather, it means we don’t know how tough they can become. This is the first time in the history of the Golden State Warriors that they are the NBA’s top dog. This is the first time Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have ever carried a massive target on their backs.

Simply stated, we don’t know their ceiling for mental toughness quite yet. That’s the only thing that makes me pause before laying a bet on these Warriors winning it all.

Odds Picture: At 3-1 odds, they rank second right behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. At first glance, this looks like a travesty as the Warriors have been a far more consistent and dominant team. But then, we picture Cleveland’s pleasant stroll through the terrible Eastern Conference and there is no doubt they’ll be in the Finals. With the Warriors, every single team they meet in the playoffs will be a contender, and that’s a bloodbath in the making.

Final Verdict: Look, teams with a +10 point differential almost always win the title, so laying a bet on the Warriors is as good as betting on anybody. They have the MVP-to-be in Steph Curry, a great defense and unbelievable shooting and flexibility.

We just have to decide how mentally tough the Warriors CAN BECOME. It’s their last obstacle. If they can grow into the role and responsibility of being the league’s best team, the Warriors will be champions. If they stray, show growing pains, or fail to elevate their mental toughness when tested, then they’ll be back next year for another shot.

 

The San Antonio Spurs:

Our defending champions. These old war dogs have been doing it at the top level for so long. Tim Duncan won his first championship in his second year in the league, way back in 1999 with Gregg Popovich as his coach.

Last June, the Spurs destroyed the favoured Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. It was the fifth championship for Duncan and Popovich in the last 14 seasons. That is without question, an NBA dynasty.

And yet, not once in all that time have the San Antonio Spurs managed to defend their title. They have never won two championships back-to-back.

Normally, this wouldn’t be much of a criticism. But when we compare and examine all the other historically great champions of the past thirty years, we find that they all have one thing the Spurs do not have: consecutive championships.

Let’s take a look at all the repeat champions dating back to 1987:

LA Lakers: champions in ’87, ‘88

Detroit Pistons: champions in ’89, ‘90

Chicago Bulls: champions in ’91, ’92, ‘93

Houston Rockets: champions in ’94, ‘95

Chicago Bulls: champions in ’96, ’97, ‘98

LA Lakers: champions in ’00, ’01, ‘02

LA Lakers: champions in ’09, ‘10

Miami Heat: champions in ’12, ‘13

That is a whopping number of great teams who won consecutive titles. In fact, the Spurs are the only team in the last 30 years that have won more than one NBA championship without ever having successfully defended their title.

They say that the only thing harder than winning an NBA championship is keeping it. As great and as consistently excellent the Spurs have been in the last 15 years, they never managed to win two in a row, despite the tremendous number of repeat champions we’ve seen in the modern NBA era.

Odds Picture: True to form, the Spurs start slow and play better and better as the playoffs approach. This is reflected in their 4-1 odds (it was 7-1 last week), which is a decent bet but not exactly a juicy prospect, given their historical aversion to defending their titles.

Final Verdict: They’re one year older and for the Spurs, that means they’re EVEN older now. Father time is undefeated and the Spurs will be no different, but at least they gave the old goat all he could handle. However, if they couldn’t repeat when Tim Duncan was in his prime despite having four chances to do so, how are they supposed to do that now?

But make no mistake: they’ve done nothing but prove doubters wrong for a long time, and no other team has half the playoff experience that they have. History is against them repeating, but you dismiss the San Antonio Spurs at your own peril.

 

The Memphis Grizzlies:

We just don’t know quite what to expect from the Grizzlies in this upcoming postseason. They are the NBA’s last link to a past age of NBA basketball that relies on traditional size and slow-down, methodical post up play. Teams simply do not play basketball like the Grizzlies do, employing two traditional big men in an age where many teams trot out three guards and no centers in their daily lineups.

The game has changed, but somehow the Grizzlies just submitted their finest season in franchise history despite playing a brand of basketball that is close to becoming extinct.

The Grizzlies are a complete package and they fear no one. Their greatest vulnerability is not being able to defend smaller, mobile lineups. But on the flip side, who exactly is going to defend Memphis’s beastly big man duo of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol?

It’s a delicate balancing act for the Grizzlies. Their style goes against the established grain of modern basketball, which means mismatches are going to be the story in their playoff run. Everything depends on whether they get the better deal in those mismatches.

Odds Picture: At around 15-1 odds, Memphis is a properly good punt with a very decent potential payout. They are far from the favourites, but they are absolutely a leading contender in the West and built for postseason play.

Final Verdict: We like the Grizzlies precisely because of their old fashioned ways, and for good reason: playoff basketball is about a slower pace. It’s about executing in the half court, and making the best of your advantages as teams lock down on the defensive end. That’s when having two All-Star big men who both demand a double team really begins to show its worth. The Grizzlies are going to be difficult to beat in the playoffs.

 

The Houston Rockets:

Yes, they are a real contender. But nope, they’re not winning the NBA Championship and that is taking into account the unbelievable season superstar James Harden has had. If it wasn’t for Stephen Curry, Harden would certainly be this year’s MVP. No other star player has done more with less around him.

That’s well and good for the regular season, but we cannot expect James Harden to carry his team through the postseason in the same manner. It doesn’t work that way in the playoffs. James Harden is going to need all the help he can get.

Which brings us to Dwight Howard, one of the more overrated big men in the NBA now that his legs have deserted him. His numbers have dipped at a dramatic level season after season, and he is miles away from being the athletic freak and one-man defense that he was in 2011.

Dominant Dwight Howard is dead and gone. What’s left is a shadow of his former self, and that’s a problem because no player has blindly relied on his athleticism alone like Howard has. When his legs left him, all of his fundamental flaws and lack of offensive game became even more glaring.

Dwight Howard never bothered to learn how to play the game without solely relying on his world-class athleticism. Now that he is old (and looks it), it leaves us with the current version of Dwight Howard: merely a good NBA center, no more, no less.

The Houston Rockets are not winning the NBA Championship with half of Dwight Howard. Harden is a great, great player, but he can’t win an NBA title on his own.

Odds Picture: The Rockets sit at around 16-1 odds and they are only getting juicier by the minute. You can find 24-1 odds for a Rockets championship at several sportsbooks, which is nothing more than bait from handicappers. Other bets have a better chance than Houston.

Final Verdict: Save your money for one of the other Western Conference dark horses because the Rockets are not winning anything this year.

 

The LA Clippers:

By far the most hated team in the league, the Clippers are nonetheless, a fine squad and a dark horse contender. They whine, they act entitled, they seem too cool for school on certain days and their desire can be questioned. But they have a good team, a championship coach, and they have Chris Paul.

In Paul, the Clippers arguably have the NBA’s best pure point guard and a fearless superstar in his own right. However, Paul is also known as a shouter, a relentless taskmaster that demands perfection from his team. He’s old school in this respect, and had Paul played 30 years ago in a tougher era of NBA basketball, he would have received a far more favourable response from his teammates back then.

In today’s NBA, star players like Blake Griffin resent Paul’s tough approach instead of using it to fuel a personal excellence. Blake Griffin has always had an uneasy relationship to Paul, and his numbers rise and dip inconsistently from season to season. Griffin is good, but he absolutely lacks mental toughness and a true desire to win. This is reflected in his wavering statistics and his rapidly declining rebound numbers, a statistic that reflects desire more than any other.

Their center, Deandre Jordan, is a fearsome rebounder and shot blocker. However, he has ZERO offensive game and is one of the worst free throw shooters in the history of professional basketball. This means he will not be on the floor in key late possessions in the playoffs for fear of being fouled and forced to shoot free throws. With Deandre Jordan, there ain’t nothing free about them.

Combine this with Griffin’s Jekyll and Hyde approach to basketball and we see that there is not much about the Clippers that you can consistently count on. If they play at peak form for three weeks, they have as good a chance as any to make the Finals.

If they are their usual inconsistent selves? They could just as easily be out in round one. Watch the finger pointing begin then.

Odds Picture: At 15-1 odds, the Clippers are worth a bet simply because they are really good when everything is running smoothly. They are a real dark horse, and their odds reflect that fairly.

Final Verdict: The unpredictability of the Clippers is part of their charm. It also means that if they get on the same page and play for each other, they have a real chance to win. Coach Doc Rivers is known for uniting a team and getting them ready for the playoffs, so we expect them to do well. But Doc also knows that he has never had to work harder to get his team hungry, united and ready to rumble. The Clippers are a coin flip.

 

Honourable Mentions:

 

The Dallas Mavericks:

Before they traded for the mercurial Rajon Rondo, they were one the NBA’s elite offensive teams. Rondo was supposed to take that product and make it truly great. Instead, Rondo has played terribly and Dallas has lost more games after the trade than before it.

They have incredible talent, an incredible coach, and in Dirk Nowitzki, one of the all-time greats. But I do not see a team that is still struggling for an identity on the eve of the playoffs as a credible bet to win it all. That doesn’t happen, and the Rajon Rondo gamble may well define this season in the worst possible way. Dallas is out.

 

The OKC Thunder:

They should have been the West’s top dog, being hugely experienced, having two of the NBA’s five best players, and a hunger for greatness.

Instead, they might not even make the playoffs after injuries and an inept head coach have combined to sink their season. Even if OKC makes the playoffs, it will be without reigning MVP Kevin Durant and their defensive All-Star, Serge Ibaka. That’s like bringing a pillow to a knife fight.

Russell Westbrook has been breath-taking in their absence. But even Westbrook who is part man, part pure will, cannot carry them to a title by himself. This has been, without question, the saddest storyline this season.

 

 

 

 

NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: A Final Look at the Eastern Conference NBA Championship Race

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

 

With ten days to go in the NBA regular season, we present a final analysis of contenders and pretenders heading into the NBA Playoffs. Today, we look at the Eastern Conference. Who will you bank on to win?

March 26, 2015

 

This has been an NBA regular season for the ages, and we’ve hardly had a moment to catch our breath. With ten days remaining in the regular season, the NBA Championship race remains highly unpredictable in a way that we haven’t seen in decades of professional basketball.

Today, in our final look at NBA Futures betting for the NBA Championship, we take a look at this year’s Eastern Conference contenders as we gear up for a historically competitive NBA playoffs.

 

The Atlanta Hawks:

The Atlanta Hawks are the undisputed Cinderella of the 2015 NBA regular season. They will finish the regular season with the Eastern Conference top record, setting a franchise record for wins along the way. The Hawks have been around since 1949 when they debuted as the Tri-Cities Blackhawks, and this year’s squad has won more games than any since. They are arguably the finest squad in Hawks history.

They play an efficient, unselfish, team-first brand of basketball modelled on ball movement and the San Antonio Spurs’ championship formula. They can defend, they can score, they can shoot and they play for each other. The Atlanta Hawks are really good.

However, the discussion here concerns whether they are good enough to win the NBA Championship. Basketball purists LOVE these Hawks for good reason. In an era where the individual NBA superstar is celebrated to a ludicrous degree, Atlanta is winning with the opposite formula. They have no superstar players. Their strength comes from the collective being stronger than the sum of its individual parts. They play pure, team basketball without relying on a single star.

That’s why this Atlanta team is the darling of the NBA season. But, that is also why the Atlanta Hawks are not going to win the NBA Championship this season.

If NBA history has taught us one thing, it’s that teams without an established superstar do not win NBA titles. Going back 30 years, only the 2004 Detroit Pistons won the NBA Championship without a superstar player. Previous to that, you’d have to go back to the 1979 Seattle Supersonics to find the next team that won without an elite superstar.

That is a whole lot of history the Atlanta Hawks are up against.

The NBA Playoffs are a different animal to the regular season. Defenses tighten up and in a seven-game series, teams play each other 4-7 times in ten days. This means that teams have ample opportunity to make adjustments from game to game.

That’s where the superstar closer comes in to earn the big bucks. During playoff games, all offenses have difficult stretches when everything grinds to halt. That’s when having a great individual player to create scoring from nothing is beyond crucial to success. Atlanta has exactly zero star players who can carry the scoring load. In the NBA Playoffs, that is an alarming situation to be in.

Odds Picture: The Hawks have hovered at 7-1 odds (fourth favourites) for some time now, and that is not going to change. It is not exactly enticing because while Atlanta is very good, they should in reality be closer to 12-1 odds. But because they play in the woeful East, their odds take a beating.

Final Verdict: We love Atlanta and hope that they can shock the world. But history tells us that they’re one great player short. If you’re going to take a punt on a dark horse, we suggest picking one from the deep, deep West, where the odds are juicy all over… (stay tuned to this space for the Western Conference Playoff Preview next week)

 

The Cleveland Cavaliers:

They are hitting top gear, they have the best player in the league by far, they are easily the most dangerous team in the NBA right now and they are the outright favourite to win the NBA Championship. Whether they can beat whoever comes out of the West is another question, but Cleveland’s path to reach the Finals is a lock. Just book it now, the Cavs are making the Finals.

Of the contending teams, Cleveland is the one squad that hasn’t even seen its best side yet. And that is scary, because they have been the best team in the league since the February All-Star break.

It hasn’t been easy, and many questions about chemistry remain. Their new superstar forward, Kevin Love, has had well documented troubles fitting in with LeBron James on and off the court. Their rookie head coach, David Blatt, has battled scrutiny and doubt all season not just from the media, but from his own team. It’s an open secret that LeBron James coaches that team and frequently ignores his coach’s play calls from the sideline.

And yet, none of this has stopped Cleveland from becoming a true scoring juggernaut and the most dangerous team in the NBA heading into the playoffs.

Such is the luxury of having the world’s best player, LeBron James, on your squad. If they ever figure out how to use Kevin Love as he was intended to be used, there will be no stopping Cleveland. There may be no stopping them regardless.

Odds Picture: Cleveland is the bookies favourite to win it all at 2.5/1 odds. It’s actually a good bet, because their easy path to the Finals in the woeful East will be a massive advantage over their Finals opponents. Whoever comes through from the West will have endured a bloodbath to get to the same point as Cleveland.

Final Verdict: Mark it down and set it in stone: Cleveland will be in the Finals. Whether they beat the West’s finest is the real question. But whoever they play, Cleveland will give them all they can handle.

 

The Chicago Bulls:

I hate writing about the Chicago Bulls because you cannot discuss this team for more than ten seconds before somebody brings up Derrick Rose’s constantly broken knees. And who can blame them for doing so? Derrick Rose’s knees are always broken.

The only good thing that comes with his latest injury? At least we know not to waste our money betting on a Bulls championship. It’s not going to happen.

From April 2012 till now, Rose has torn his knees up three times in major injuries. Every positive move has been met with a setback twice as potent. At the end of February this year, he re-tore a meniscus in his knee and underwent surgery again. We have ten games to go until playoff time and instead of finalizing their playoff push, we are still reading about how the former MVP swears he’ll be ready for the postseason.

The only problem is, nobody can believe him anymore. How could we at this point? How is it possible to trust Derrick Rose’s knees when three years of evidence points to a player that may well end up as one of the NBA’s all-time cautionary tales?

Sadly, Derrick Rose is no longer in charge of his body. That means that no matter how well-intentioned he is in what he says or does, the truth is that his body has betrayed him for good.

2012 Derrick Rose is never coming back, and that is very, very sad.

The Bulls are used to playing without Rose, and they have the NBA’s most relentlessly demanding coach. They know how to play at a high level without Rose, but this drive has taken its toll. Key players such as Joakim Noah and Jimmy Butler are all carrying chronic injuries into the playoffs. And with such a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the team, the Bulls are looking at a familiar scene: a spirited underdog performance in the playoffs that is ultimately not enough to win it all.

Odds Picture: The Bulls chances are dropping, and rightfully so. Currently, they stand anywhere from 12-1 odds up to 18-1 odds depending on the sportsbook. Even such a fat potential payout is not enough to entice a punt. Save your money for a real dark horse from the West.

Final Verdict: In short, the Chicago Bulls are done without a healthy Derrick Rose. They only had a puncher’s chance to win even with him in uniform. But trying to rush him back for the playoffs on a set of knees that break twice a year? The Chicago Bulls are not winning anything this year.

 

(Stay tuned for the Western Conference Playoff Preview next week!)

 

NBA Playoffs Futures Betting: Do the Houston Rockets have a chance to win the NBA Finals, or will a fading Dwight Howard be their undoing?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

In this historically unpredictable NBA season, we’ve covered the championship cases for the Portland Trailblazers, OKC Thunder, Atlanta Hawks, Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. Today, we look at the Houston Rockets and Dwight Howard, their curiously flawed star center.

March 3, 2015

 

Playing elite NBA championship basketball requires many distinct qualities. First, you must have that extra gear for the playoffs (and yet another for the Finals) regardless of how well the regular season went.

You need all twelve players to be on the same page, regardless of whatever interpersonal issues the team carries (and they all carry a few). Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant disliked each other vehemently at times, but that didn’t stop them from winning three straight titles together.

You need a unified team that is committed and consistently on overdrive. You need a team that just wants it more than their opponents.

In short, these attributes contribute to two of the most important factors in an NBA Championship bid: true desire and mental toughness.

Professional basketball fans over the age of 30 have lived through a tougher, more physically and mentally demanding era of NBA basketball that younger fans simply haven’t experienced in the current family-friendly age of the NBA.

That’s one of the reasons star players like center Dwight Howard (Houston Rockets) and power forward Blake Griffin (LA Clippers) have as many detractors as they do fans. Talent means a great deal in the NBA, but that alone will never deliver a title. You need mental toughness and a relentless drive to be the best every single day. You need leaders with true presence who will lift the team above the sum of its individual parts. That’s how championship teams are born.

Dwight Howard has more natural talent than he knows what to do with. But he has never shown the required drive and mental toughness to truly excel. He is the second best player on his team, and his easygoing approach to basketball just isn’t enough, especially at a time when he’s passing his athletic prime.

However, this is a freak NBA season. Usually, teams like the Rockets don’t have a realistic chance to reach the Finals regardless of their regular season record. But this is a historically open NBA season with the deepest field of credible contenders ever, and there are no truly elite teams.

So, even a perennially flawed “contender” like Houston actually has a chance of winning this year. It’s a golden opportunity. But will they be able to take advantage?

In short, no. Let’s have a look at why your money is better spent elsewhere.

 

The Curious Case of Dwight Howard:

I’m no fan of Dwight Howard. I like my superstar players to actually give a damn every game. I like seeing them care enough to add a couple of iron-clad moves to their game every single summer. I like to see the drive to improve all aspects of their game all the time, because guess what? THAT’S WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN.

The margin of error in the NBA Playoffs is so thin that every single unit of preparation could be the factor that dictates your glory or your doom. Dwight Howard has never shown he wants it all that bad.

For the first five seasons of his NBA career, Howard was so freakishly athletic that he could breakdance his way to total domination in a league where dominant centers are now an endangered species. I do not wish to sell Howard too short, because he was often spectacular during his early years, easily amassing around 20+ points and 15 rebounds per game with 3-4 blocks while single-handedly defending the paint with venom.

His athleticism was overpowering, but unfortunately for the fun-loving Dwight, Father Time is undefeated. You cannot just rely on freakish athleticism, especially if you are, like Dwight Howard, seriously limited on the offensive end.

The truly great ones prepare years in advance for that time when their knees won’t give them the same explosiveness anymore. Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, for example, began to perfect their post-up games well before their 30’s. LeBron James was a little late to do the same, but he still crafted a deadly low post game before he turned 30. All three players used foresight to perfect a part of their game that would serve them sustainably well into their late 30’s. That’s what I call drive.

Dwight Howard has exactly two post moves and can’t shoot outside of eight feet. That’s pretty much what he came into the NBA with. He never quite figured out how to score with efficiency and brains. This year, he will turn 30 and that is an evil harbinger for superstar centers, historically speaking.

Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O’Neal are the four greatest true centers in the past three decades. All of them began to fade at the age of 30, because the NBA is particularly taxing on superstar big men.

Dwight Howard has had back surgery in the last two years. His numbers across the board are slipping. Take a look at these averages per game from 2011 and now:

2011 Dwight Howard: 22.9 points, 14.1 rebounds, 11.7 free throw attempts, 2.4 blocks

2015 Dwight Howard: 16.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 6.9 free throw attempts, 1.4 blocks

All four of the elite centers mentioned above were better players than Dwight Howard, and far more resourceful offensively. And yet when their numbers dipped after they turned 30, not a single one of them was able to regain an elite level of play ever again. When the statistical slide starts for a center, the drop is far, far steeper than for other positions.

If these four all-time greats couldn’t halt the ravages of time, there is no way that Dwight Howard can.

As such, this current version of Dwight Howard is the only one Houston can count on, for better or worse. 2011 Dwight ain’t never coming back. He might make a small cameo (like in last year’s series against Portland), but you simply can’t count on him to be there.

Which leaves Houston’s championship hopes squarely on the shoulders of superstar guard James Harden, a credible MVP contender this season.

James Harden is a great player, no question about it. But James Harden is also one of the laziest defenders in the entire NBA. This year, he’s actually trying to play defense consistently for once, in part because his laziness was so atrocious that a video documenting them became viral on YouTube.

However, is that supposed to be reassuring? A superstar player who only started playing real defense after he was shamed into it over the course of five seasons?

That tells us one thing about James Harden: he is immensely talented and very, very good. But no player who defends as poorly as that as a habit can ever be a truly elite player, namely that rare type that can conceivably carry a team to a title by himself.

They make all the right noises about desire and wanting to win, but the facts are the facts:

Dwight Howard never made enough of an effort to improve his game for a time when his athleticism declines.

And James Harden is bloody good, but is also the type of player who seems to arrogantly play defense only when he “needs to”.

Not exactly a pair of mentally tough customers.

You know what’s also funny? Houston head coach Kevin McHale was also known for being a fun-loving guy during his storied Hall of Fame career. He may have won three championships as Larry Bird’s sidekick on that 1980’s Boston Celtics dynasty, but he drove the psychotically competitive Bird absolutely nuts with his oft-relaxed approach to the game.

Bird often moaned about how McHale could be the league’s best player if only he applied himself fully. Celtics coach Bill Fitch once asked McHale in exasperation: “Why can’t you be more like Larry?”

McHale’s response? “Because I have a life.”

That attitude, unfortunately, reminds us of his star center in Houston now, and that’s not good news for the Rockets faithful.

And let’s not forget this: McHale may not have been the most driven of superstars, but even with this in mind, he ended up being the finest low-post player in NBA history (nobody, and I mean NOBODY, had more unguardable post moves). He became the best power forward to ever play the game not named Tim Duncan. That’s how good Kevin McHale was.

Dwight Howard is no Kevin McHale.

And crucially: McHale played with Larry Bird, one of the five greatest players and competitors of all-time.

James Harden is no Larry Bird, not even a little bit close.

As such, the three main figures in Houston all have mental flaws or wavering levels of effort. The will to win cannot be taught. And the lack of it doesn’t translate to NBA titles.

 

Does the odds picture make things more enticing?

Actually, a little. They’re sitting on 22-1 odds right now, which is the 10th ranked odds contender. That’s a decent return for the Rockets, if only because of the unpredictability of the league this year.

Still, I can’t see Houston winning in any circumstance. My natural anti-Dwight bias plays a part, but I’d still save my bet for a better team or at least, for a team that is truly underrated.

Such as the Portland Trailblazers, who are sitting on a ludicrously generous 30-1 odds (you can even find a 40-1 offer at Ladbrokes!). I’m not saying the Blazers will win, but they are just as good, if not better, than the Rockets.

The Rockets aren’t worth a punt. They just don’t have enough mental steel. Out of the West, I’d pick the OKC Thunder (10-1), Memphis Grizzlies (12-1), Dallas Mavericks (18-1) or even Portland (30-1) before I’d pick the Rockets.

 

 

NBA Futures Betting: Which of the Two Consensus Favourites Will Win the NBA Title?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

NBA futures betting for the Championship has never been more open. Today, we break down the chances of the consensus favourites from each conference: the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

 

February 27, 2015

 

Both the pundits and the media at large have settled on the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers as consensus favourites to meet in the Finals. It’s the type of matchup that makes people forget their families for a week.

In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors started the season as a dangerous young team with a bright rookie head coach in Steve Kerr. We expected them to build on their 51 wins last season, and perhaps advance another round in the playoffs.

Nobody expected them to erupt with a 23-3 record, matching an all-time mark set by the 1996 Chicago Bulls (in fairness, those Bulls extended that streak to a ludicrous 41-3). The Warriors have also been a top 5 defensive team consistently. In a Conference with an unprecedented eight contenders, Golden State has played most like the top dog. Their consistency, incredible outside shooting and their balanced, unselfish play means no team has yet to challenge that status.

In the Eastern Conference, the star studded Cleveland Cavaliers are Jekyll and Hyde. The consensus preseason favourites, the Cavaliers were disappointing at first with a terrible 5-7 record. Then, they won eight in a row and all was well. Next, they lost nine of ten games and the world was ending.

Now, they’ve won 18 of their past 20 games including a massive win in Golden State last night. LeBron James remains the league’s undisputed best player. He’s in his prime and flanked by two bona fide All-Stars in Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love, who are finally figuring out how to play with James. They’ve made trades that addressed their primary weaknesses (lack of post defense and rim protection) and are now primed for a championship run.

Without question, the Cleveland Cavaliers are the most dangerous team in the NBA.

However, while both Cleveland and Golden State have been the best of their respective conferences, they are not a lock to meet in the Finals. The field of contenders is so abnormally deep this year that one could see either the Cavs or Warriors losing in a seven game series.

Welcome to the 2014-2015 NBA season, where everything is up in the air. Let’s break down the case for Golden State’s and Cleveland’s championship hopes.

 

Golden State’s Case:

Stephen Curry is like a walking, talking video game. His game is completely unique in NBA history. A guy who takes shots with such a high degree of difficulty simply should not be this efficient at making them. He makes over 40% of his three point attempts, shoots 49% from the field and is the deadliest shooter at the point guard position in a league that’s overflowing with them.

Next to him, we find young shooting guard Klay Thompson who has just exploded in a rainbow of ridiculous outside shooting. Remember Curry’s shooting stats? Here’s Thompson’s: 44% from three point range, 47% from the field overall, and almost every shot is outside of 18 feet.

He broke Twitter and the basketball media last month with 37 points in a single quarter against Sacramento. In a QUARTER! Twelve minutes of an NBA game and he hit 13 straight shots and NINE of them were threes! Needless to say, it’s an NBA record.

A year ago, the Warriors head coach at the time claimed “The Splash Brothers” were the greatest shooting backcourt in NBA history. We scoffed at him then. After all, don’t these two have a lot more to prove first?

Now, it doesn’t look like misguided hyperbole from a protective coach. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are absolutely on their way to becoming the finest pure shooting backcourt in NBA history. They’re not there yet, but their list of competitors grows thin.

Combined with a truly team-first dynamic, an excellent cast of versatile role players, a highly promising young coach with five Championship rings as a player, and the best home crowd in the NBA, the Golden State Warriors are the real deal.

However: they live and die with Andrew Bogut’s injuries. Their only real rim protector, the Aussie center is disproportionally important to Golden State’s title hopes. But the problem is Bogut is highly injury-prone. If he’s out come playoff time, it represents a significant problem for the Warriors. Power forward David Lee is a gifted low post scorer and rebounder, but he is one of the most atrocious defenders in the entire NBA.

There is no depth in the Warriors frontcourt if Bogut is unavailable. Let’s not forget: the Western Conference path to the Finals is like a gauntlet of pain. Marc Gasol, Dwight Howard, LaMarcus Aldridge and some guy named Tim Duncan are just a few centers that Golden State can count on meeting come playoff time.

If Bogut isn’t 100%, that’s big trouble in a Conference that is overflowing with the NBA’s finest big men.

 

Cleveland’s Case:

LeBron James. Isn’t that enough? In a league dominated by superstars, LeBron is the undisputed best player. Let’s put it this way: last year’s Miami Heat team, with LeBron James, finished with a 54-28 regular season record.

LeBron jumped ship over the summer and returned to Cleveland. This season, Miami are sitting on a terrible 25-31 record with basically the exact same team minus LeBron. They’re barely in the playoffs in a historically bad Conference. With James, the Miami Heat played in four straight NBA Finals.

The best players matter more in the NBA than any other sport. It’s just that simple, and in LeBron James Cleveland has the unanimous best player.

They have depth and scoring chops in spades with Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love. They addressed their big man void with shrewd signings in Timofey Mozgov and Kendrick Perkins. They have perimeter defending and shooting sorted. And their early season growing pains with an unhappy Kevin Love seem to be in the past.

However, let’s address the 800-pound elephant in the room: inexperience.

Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love are incredibly talented All-Stars. But together, they have played in exactly ZERO NBA playoff games in a combined ten NBA seasons. For a pair of stars as celebrated as these two, that is utterly unacceptable.

They may have the game, but do they have the brains? Are they mentally ready for a level of basketball that they have never experienced before?

But at least they’ve got NBA experience. The same cannot be said for their head coach. A daisy fresh rookie, David Blatt has never coached or even played in a single NBA game.

There have been numerous reports this season of LeBron defying his play calls and basically coaching the team himself out on the floor. James says he respects Blatt, but it is hard to believe that one of the NBA’s ten greatest ever players, a two-time champion and four-time MVP, would take an NBA rookie head coach seriously all the time.

Players look to LeBron for guidance. If he doesn’t buy in to coach’s game plan then they won’t either. The truth is that in one of the weakest Eastern Conferences in recent memory, Cleveland are still only third in the standings and a full ten games behind the Atlanta Hawks.

Much of that is down to the fact that Cleveland has been a work in progress throughout the season. A lot of their bickering comes from egos and not being on the same page while negotiating the growing pains suffered by any newly formed team.

Which brings us to this point: teams simply do not form and win a championship in their first year playing together. The 2008 Boston Celtics are an exception that proves the rule, but they never had to deal with coaching inexperience or team identity. They knew who they were on day one and were utterly unified. Cleveland took nearly 60 games to figure it out.

That being said, nobody in the East can stop Cleveland. It’s not even going to be close. Even Atlanta is going to struggle mightily against such a scoring juggernaut in Cleveland. The Cavs are a lock to make the Finals.

That’s where their championship hopes will be severely tested, because all eight playoff teams from the West have a better chance to beat Cleveland than the entire East combined.

Will raw talent, fiery scoring and the game’s best player be enough for the Cavaliers to win their first ever NBA Championship?

My brain says no. The West is too deep, and Cleveland just isn’t as unified as I would like to see in a truly elite contender.

But this is the NBA, where the game’s best player commands an abnormal amount of influence.

My heart says Cleveland absolutely can win the NBA title this season.

Both Golden State and Cleveland’s odds for winning the title is around 4-1, representing the joint-favourites. Should they meet in the Finals, that matchup would be incredibly difficult to call. But when push comes to shove, only one player from either team has won NBA titles: LeBron James.

I don’t feel good about it, but I might have to pick Cleveland to win this season’s NBA Championship.

 

 

 

NBA Futures Betting: Are the Atlanta Hawks For Real? A Look at their Odds and their Case for the Unlikeliest of NBA Titles

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

February 24, 2015

 

At the time of this writing, the Atlanta Hawks lead the NBA Eastern Conference standings with a 44-12 record. To put these Hawks into context: they are sitting on a .786 winning percentage with two-thirds of the season gone. That’s on pace for the 20th most winningest season in NBA history.

That’s a better record than Larry Bird’s first Boston Celtics championship season in ’81. Or the dominant ’89 champion Detroit Pistons. Or the ’98 championship Chicago Bulls, led by some guy named Michael Jordan. Or dozens of other championship teams in NBA history.

The Atlanta Hawks are baffling because a team of overlooked consolation prizes almost never come together to challenge for NBA titles. They have zero elite players and have remained largely unchanged for two seasons. Suddenly, they’re winning more games than Larry Bird.

You’d have to go back to the 2004 Detroit Pistons to find a comparable team of overachievers that came out of nowhere to dominate. That Pistons team further shocked the world by winning the NBA Championship, but that is a historical anomaly.

In the past 30 years, only the 2004 Detroit Pistons can be described as a complete underdog champion. Sure, a few other teams in that period have punched above their weight to claim a title. But these teams had at least a shot at winning. Nobody gave the ’04 Pistons the slightest chance in hell to win it all.

Teams without an elite great player do not win NBA titles. But the 2004 Detroit Pistons somehow managed to win despite not having one. The previous championship squad without an elite superstar was the 1979 Seattle Supersonics.

Whoever bet on that Pistons team to win must have made an obscene amount of money and commanded twice as much in bragging rights. This year’s Atlanta Hawks is the first team to come along since then that reminds us of those Pistons, in terms of how unlikely their championship bid seems regardless of what the standings say.

Can the Atlanta Hawks do the same and shock the world? Let’s have a look at the case for and against Atlanta as we compare them to the 2004 Detroit Pistons.

 

The Case for Atlanta:

 

The very nature of this NBA season itself is Atlanta’s best case. We are enjoying a historically open season where a normally predictable landscape has been made highly unpredictable. Usually, an NBA season features two or maybe three elite contenders and one of them invariably wins. Teams ranked 4-10 almost never win.

This year, we have no truly elite teams. Instead, we have an incredibly deep field of 8-10 credible contenders. This almost never happens in the NBA and it is a partial explanation for Atlanta’s excellent season thus far. There are so many teams in turmoil or development (especially in the East) that teams like Atlanta can exploit them with its stability and unselfishness.

Those ’04 Pistons were relentlessly unselfish, and it allowed them to play a slow-down brand of suffocating basketball with players that knew exactly what their roles were. They were the epitome of “stronger than the sum of its parts.”

Atlanta has that same unselfishness and stability. Their head coach, Mike Budenholzer, spent 18 years as an assistant for legendary Spurs coach, Gregg Popovich, before landing in Atlanta last year. That’s a PHD in winning and unselfish basketball, taught by one of the five greatest coaches in NBA history. Budenholzer learned well from Popovich, and the Hawks (nicknamed “Spurs East” in some media circles) now exhibit the same unselfish team-first principles that helped to make the Spurs a dynasty.

In a Conference where powerhouses such as Cleveland and Chicago are still finalizing their team structure, Atlanta is already the finished product. Great, team basketball can hide many shortcomings, and this Atlanta team learned from the best.

 

The Case Against Atlanta:

 

This is going to be a far longer list than the case for the Hawks winning, but that’s the whole point! Nobody saw the ’04 Pistons coming, even though their “cons” list must have rivalled the one I’m about to write for the Hawks.

First of all, we have to identify a few simple facts: the 2004 Pistons were coached by the all-time great Larry Brown, while the promising Budenholzer is still finding his way.

Also, the 2004 Detroit Pistons were a historically dominant defensive team. They were an absolute monster to score against. Detroit basically sucked the life out of their opponents with a defense that was hard to watch even for purist basketball nerds.

But it worked! Larry Brown took his team’s one elite skill and turned it into an all-time defensive brick wall. They may have lacked the firepower, but they rode a legendary lockdown defense all the way to the top.

Atlanta has a very good defense, currently ranked third in the league in points-per-game allowed and opponent’s field goal percentage. However, they are not the ’04 Pistons defensively, mainly because, well, nobody is.

That Detroit front line was an all-time nightmare to play against. Rasheed Wallace was one of the finest post defenders around. Tayshaun Prince was long, fast and a relentless lockdown defender who could guard four positions at an elite level. And big Ben Wallace, a four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, was a once-a-generation defensive force.

With all due respect to Al Horford, Paul Millsap and whoever is starting next to them, Atlanta is not in the same league as 2004 Detroit.

You can’t win a title without a good-to-great defense, which Atlanta has. But it’s not an all-time dominant defense, which means they won’t ride it all the way to a title like Detroit did. Even those Pistons would secretly admit they were lucky to win it all, because they, like the Hawks, were limited by their lack of an elite superstar.

You need one of those to win in the NBA, and the Hawks do not have anything resembling a star closer. In the tensest moments of playoff basketball, sometimes you just cannot score against iron-clad defenses regardless of how good your team is playing. That’s when you need a dominant player who can create opportunities from nothing.

Atlanta doesn’t have that closer. They will meet playoff defenses and will struggle to score against them in key possessions. The best player matters in a playoff series, and these Hawks might not have a single series in which they have the best player on their side.

Finally, let’s look at the odds picture to see if that makes a punt worthwhile.

Currently in late February, a futures bet for an Atlanta Hawks championship stands at a lukewarm 7-1, which means a $100 bet would get you $700. This makes them the fourth favourites to win it all, and only Golden State (4-1), Cleveland (4-1) and defending champion San Antonio (6-1) are ranked above them. For a team as unlikely to win as Atlanta, 7-1 odds are not exactly enticing.

In context, current Western powers such as the OKC Thunder (10-1), Memphis Grizzlies (12-1), Houston Rockets (17-1) and the insanely underrated Portland Trailblazers (30-1!!!) all have far more enticing payouts (and arguably, better teams).

Atlanta is rated this highly because they play in the terrible East where only two other teams are contenders (Cavs and Bulls). The Eastern path to the Finals is like a beach holiday compared to the bloodbath we can expect in the West, where all eight playoff teams have a shot at winning.

So, sure, Atlanta has a better chance at getting to the Finals than the Western teams mentioned above, but guess what? Even if they get there, they still have to actually play one of those teams. That’s when Hawks supporters become quiet again.

I’d have a punt on Atlanta at a minimum of 12-1 odds, but at 7-1 it doesn’t look good at all. Portland, at a ridiculously mouthwatering 30-1 odds, is arguably a better team than Atlanta. The Blazers are the team I’d bet on purely for the ludicrously generous payout.

But Atlanta at 7-1 odds just doesn’t do enough to make me forget how flawed they are as a contender. They are tearing up the regular season but the playoffs are a different animal. At 7-1 odds, it’s not worth betting on Atlanta and what may well be an unproven playoff team who overachieved at the wrong time in the NBA season.