Category: Cricket

Fast Pitch, Pink Ball Welcome Pakistan to Australia

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Pakistan has arrived in Australia for a three-match test series, beginning with a day-night test in Brisbane. We take a look at the main talking points ahead of the match and give our tips for finding the best betting options.

The Last Time These Two Met

In the 2014/15 series, Australia was deeply embarrassed. The Australians caved to spin in the UAE, but as is often the case in matchups between these two sides, the home side usually prevails – so Australia is well and truly expected to bounce back from that 2-0 series defeat two years ago.

Both games were bossed by Pakistan. By 221 runs and 356 runs. Expect none of the same here, and more of the same of Pakistan’s last trip to Australia – they lost all nine games across the three formats including a 3-0 clean sweep in the test matches.

The Teams

Australia (likely):

1 David Warner, 2 Matt Renshaw, 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Peter Handscomb, 6 Nic Maddinson, 7 Matthew Wade, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Josh Hazlewood, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jackson Bird.

The Australians will be unchanged from the side that saved some face and beat South Africa in the third test of that series. Despite several of the personnel changing the group will also be on a high after sweeping New Zealand in the interruptive ODI series.

Pakistan (from):

Misbah-ul-Haq (capt), Azhar Ali, Sami Aslam, Sharjeel Khan, Younis Khan, Asad Shafiq, Babar Azam, Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), Mohammad Rizwan, Yasir Shah, Mohammad Nawaz, Mohammad Amir, Wahab Riaz, Rahat Ali, Sohail Khan, Imran Khan.

Pakistan hasn’t shown their hand yet, but they have retained the same group of players that were soundly beaten by New Zealand recently. While competitive at times in that series, their batsman lacked runs and made things incredibly hard for their talented bowling unit. They’ll need more from the likes of Misbah, Ali and Sami Aslam.

The Key Players

Australia: Josh Hazlewood is the completely unregarded, humble and quiet achieving lynchpin of the Australian fast bowling stocks that rarely gets the credit he deserves. His accuracy and patience traits pale in comparison to the speed and swing of Mitchell Starc, however, they are arguably more important to his team’s chances. He’s unrelenting and the perfect foil for Starc, especially as players relax a touch when they don’t have Starc screaming in at them. Look out for Hazlewood to have a big impact on this series.

Pakistan: The fast Australian pitches could suit one player more than any other in the Pakistan squad, and that’s Sarfraz Ahmed. The wicketkeeper-batsman loves to play his shots; hit through the line. Consistent bounce and with a bit of speed behind the ball (especially at the GABBA) could suit his game immeasurably. He could thrive with the extra bounce unlike some of his teammates who may struggle.

The Match Odds

Australia – $1.38 at Unibet.

Pakistan – $6.60 at Betfair.

Draw – $7.40 at Betfair.

The Prediction

Australia will be far too strong over the three games let alone the series opener. They’ll boss the tempo of the game, so expect huge totals and twenty wickets. Australia to carry on their revitalisation and get their second straight win with the exciting and young squad.

The Best Bets

Usman Khawaja to top score at $4.50 from William Hill looks like good money. He loves batting in Australian conditions and generally turns hundreds into really big ones.

Wahab Riaz may enjoy the extra pace of the GABBA if he gets a chance to play. Cricket fans all over the world will remember his spell during the World Cup to Shane Watson and if he can generate anywhere near the same sort of pace and discomfort in spells here he could easily be the top Pakistan bowler. $4.50 again at William Hill.

Black Caps Staring Down The Barrel

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The Chappell-Hadlee series is already a lost cause for the Black Caps. Heavy losses in games one and two mean the men in black are left playing for pride in the final game of the series in Melbourne tomorrow.

Pride is important though given the magnitude of the losses so far. Especially when you consider the lack of enthusiasm the Black Caps have played with, the uncharacteristic mistakes they’ve made in the field and the strange decision they made behind closed doors (toss decisions and batting order).

We expect the Black Caps to be more competitive in game three, but can they overcome the gulf in class between them and the in-form Australians.

The Series So Far

Australia has already sealed the Chappell-Hadlee series thanks to dominant wins in the opening two games. In both matches, the hosts have scored over 300 runs in impressive batting displays, and in both matches, the Black Caps haven’t got close to getting near their chasing targets.

In Sydney, Australia was led by a huge Steve Smith century. The captain survived a close LBW shout and a difficult dropped catch to bring up ODI century number 7. In reply, only four New Zealanders got themselves to double figures (albeit one of them was the ultra impressive Martin Guptill who scored 114) and the final margin was 68 runs.

In Canberra, it was David Warner’s turn to bring up a personal milestone and provide the backbone of the Australian effort. The nuggety opener scored 119 and was ably supported by Smith, Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh. New Zealand was ragged with ball in hand, sloppy in the field, and ultimately left to rue their decision to bowl first. Despite runs from Guptill, James Neesham and Kane Williamson, the Black Caps lost by 116 runs.

The Teams

Australia (from):

David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steven Smith (capt), George Bailey, Travis Head, Mitchell Marsh, Matthew Wade (wk), James Faulkner, Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood.

Maxwell is likely to miss out again. But Adam Zampa could return on the ground he plays his Big Bash cricket on.

Aaron Finch and George Bailey are the batsmen with the most to prove after missing out in the series so far.

New Zealand (likely):

Kane Williamson (capt), Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson, Martin Guptill, Colin de Grandhomme, Tom Latham, Colin Munro, Henry Nicholls, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, BJ Watling (wk).

Jimmy Neesham might miss out after taking a blow to his arm from Mitchell Starc. Lockie Ferguson could also get another opportunity at the expensive of the disappointing Matt Henry.

The Key Players

Australia

David Warner and Steve Smith- If the Black Caps can get Warner and Smith cheaply they’ll win the game. Okay, it’s not that simple, but these two have scored a combined total of 2386 runs this year – Warner with 1232 and Smith with 1154. Their importance to an Australia win is immense. For Smith, Australia lost nine of those 11 matches when he scored 30 runs or less. For Warner, Australia lost five of those 11 when he scored less than 25. The Black Caps must find a way to stop them if they’re to have any chance in Melbourne.

New Zealand

Martin Guptill – The middle of Martin Guptill’s bat must have taken a battering in the two matches thus far. The Kiwi opener has middled everything and looked the best player in black by the size of some of his sixes. Take the white clothing off him and he’s a freakishly good player. Expect more of the same from him in game three. If he can turn in a Steve Smith type performance – a really big hundred – New Zealand could get the 350+ total they’ll need to avoid a series whitewash.

The Match Odds

Australia – $1.29 at Betstar.

New Zealand – $3.75 at Bookmaker.

The Prediction

It’s not just the first two games in the series that Australia has dominated. They’ve dominated everyone who has travelled to Australia for ODI games over the last two years. Extending the winning run to 17 of the last 18 games at home, Australia has forged a formidable home ground advantage. Expect that to continue in the final match of the series.

The Best Bets

Not much money on Smith, Warner or Guptill to top score here, so you might have to think outside the box to get a decent win banked. Consider Pat Cummins to be in the wickets again, he’s paying $5 to be Australia’s leading wicket taker.

On the New Zealand side, Tim Southee at $4 looks decent odds given he’s the most experienced New Zealand death bowler and could get some cheapie in the slog overs.

Can England Save Face in 4th Test Against India

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India will look to wrap up a series win against England when the 4th Test begins on the 8th December in Mumbai. After the drawn first test, the hosts have been well and truly on top since then with convincing back-to-back victories. The major problem for England has been their batting form. England hasn’t reached 300 in any of their previous five innings. The Indian bowlers have been on top so far, and have dominated quite early in England’s previous four innings.

Can England Reverse the Tide?

The question is can England battle back from 2-0 down to gain some credibility in this series? History tells us that when a touring side goes 2-0 down in a five test series, then the series result is a foregone conclusion. It is always difficult for any touring side. The long periods away from home and away from loved ones really takes its toll. It appears that the best that England can hope for is perhaps to win a test and exit India with some credibility. The reality is that England is on the verge of being trounced in India.

Bet365 quote India at just 1-2 to win the 4th Test and that seems fair. Coral quote 9-2 for the draw, while 4-1 for an England win is pretty standard across all of the betting sites, including Boyle Sports. If you are looking for value and want to place a bet on this match then looking at past history, which is usually a pretty reliable guide.

Searching for the Reasons

Listening to the professional analysts pour over the data from the previous three tests is quite interesting. Some of them even quote a case for England clawing their way back into the series. To do that, they would have to win this fourth test! No other result keeps the series alive. While England’s performances haven’t been a disaster, too many players have underperformed so far, while India has had around half a dozen players at the very top of their game.

Whether it is fatigue, good tactics from the Indian bowlers, poor form, or whatever is hard to say. The facts are quite damning and Andrew Strauss has some tough decisions to make that may go way beyond this current series. England has now lost no fewer than eight test matches this year. There is something clearly wrong. When we consider that this is a very talented team on paper, those stats make for grim reading. Not since the 1990’s has England lost so many test matches in a calendar year.

It could mean that the older generation may be coming to an end and are simply mentally worn out by too much test match cricket. It is difficult to see England winning the fourth test. In fact, it is difficult to see England winning a test match in this series at all. If you are looking for a bet, then it would be prudent to avoid betting on England despite the 4-1 odds.

Quick Adjustment Required in Chappell-Hadlee Opener

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Australia’s calamitous summer continues tomorrow in Sydney when they host the Black Caps in the first match of the Chappell Hadlee series.

The Australians will look to put behind them a dour 2016 that has seen them be destroyed by Sri Lanka, embarrassed by South Africa twice, and seen several selection personnel and players get discarded.

Having restored some pride in the baggy green in the Adelaide third test dead rubber against South Africa, the Australians head to Sydney to ease media pressure and quash internal discontent.

The Black Caps on the other hand will be buoyant after disposing of Pakistan on home soil in the recent test series. But in order to retain the Chappell-Hadlee trophy they’ll need to win in Australia – something they have’t done in an awfully long time.

Both teams will need to adjust from red ball (pink ball in Australia’s case) to white ball quickly to grab the head start in the three game series.

The Last Time These Two Met

New Zealand hold the Chappell-Hadlee trophy after last year’s 2-1 series win. After dominating to win game one in Auckland by 159 runs, Australia drew level in Wellington, before the Black Caps closed out the series at Seddon Park. The win in Hamilton was especially impressive, built on the back of the fabulous spin bowling and fielding.

But the prospect of a trip to Australia is daunting for the Black Caps. Nine of their squad haven’t played a one-dayer in Australia, and those that have will hold scars from the 2015 World Cup final. The only silver lining and fact that will give NZ some hope is the fact that Australia got thrashed 5-0 by South Africa in an away ODI series recently and have selected a similar group of players for this series.

Interestingly, since the start of 2015 Australia have played 16 ODIs at home. They won 15 of those in a row.

The Teams

Australia (from):

David Warner, Aaron Finch, Steven Smith (capt), George Bailey, Travis Head, Glenn Maxwell, Mitchell Marsh, Matthew Wade (wk), James Faulkner, Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Adam Zampa.

Australia have picked a team pretty similar to the one that travelled to South Africa recently and were beaten 5-0. However, this time around they have not rested Starc or Hazlewood.

Expect Glenn Maxwell to miss out after he made some disparaging comments about fellow squad member and his Victorian captain, Matthew Wade.

New Zealand (likely):

Kane Williamson (capt), Todd Astle, Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson, Martin Guptill, Colin de Grandhomme, Matt Henry, Tom Latham, Colin Munro, Jimmy Neesham, Henry Nicholls, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, BJ Watling (wk).

BJ Watling gets a second chance at a ODI career – Luke Ronchi has been dropped. Also in that category is Corey Anderson, Doug Bracewell, Ish Sodhi and Anton Devcich. Ross Taylor is unavailable.

Look out for speedster Lockie Ferguson. He’s been tearing domestic sides apart in New Zealand, regularly touching 150km/h.

The Key Players

Australia

Mitchell Starc – This guy does crazy things with the white cricket ball. Admittedly he does impressive things with the red ball too, but with the white ball he is quick and dangerous. The extra swing he generates will have Guptill and Latham worried and he could completely turn games in his first spell.

New Zealand

Kane Williamson – The New Zealand captain hasn’t scored the amount of runs he would have liked recently. He was quiet in India and had only one half century in the test series against Pakistan. But he’ll have fond memories of Australia after dominating the test series there last year. Williamson will look to spend as much time at the crease as possible; avoiding risk and allowing the rest of the team to build the innings around him, especially big hitters like de Grandhomme and Munro.

The Match Odds

Australia – $1.40 at Palmerbet.

New Zealand – $3.30 at Betfair.

The Prediction

New Zealand will need to scrap their little hearts out all game and rely on the little 1%ers (fielding and so on) to get the better of Australia here. We can’t see it happening given the team is so inexperienced. We’re also worried the likes of Latham, Watling and Nicholls are just not powerful enough to carry New Zealand to a big total. Australia to win.

The Best Bets

Colin Munro is super inconsistent but is starting to feel more comfortable at the top level after playing in the World Twenty20 and the IPL. He loves the ball coming on to the bat and could be dangerous if he gets a start. He’s paying $6 to top score at Bet365, which looks pretty good money.

Steve Smith does one-daters pretty well. There was a period against India last year where he was impossible to dismiss. Look for him to top score at odds of $4.33.

Pakistan Braced for Another Chilly Reception

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More seam and swing is expected in Hamilton for the second test between New Zealand and Pakistan starting today. Green pitches that offer support to the bowlers was once a tried and tested formula for matches hosted in New Zealand as the home side looked to utilise their home advantage to put touring batsman under pressure. After a brief departure from the formula, NZ Cricket has returned to seaming conditions. And it worked excellently in game one of this series.

Will it work again? Or will Pakistan win a crucial toss and flip the script?

Find out our prediction and betting tips below:

The Last Time These Two Met

The rain affected first test in Christchurch threw up little by way of surprises. The Pakistan batsmen were always expected to struggle in swinging conditions, and debutant Colin de Grandhomme took full advantage to take the game away from Pakistan on the second morning. New Zealand ended up taking the spoils by a comfortable eight wickets.

The Teams

New Zealand (likely):

1 Jeet Raval, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Kane Williamson (capt.), 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Henry Nicholls, 6 Colin de Grandhomme, 7 BJ Watling (wk), 8 Mitchell Santner, 9 Tim Southee, 10 Neil Wagner, 11 Matt Henry

For the Black Caps, Trent Boult has been ruled out, paving the way for impressive seamer Matt Henry to resume his stop-start test career. Mitchell Santner also returns to the side after breaking a hand in the nets. He replaces Todd Astle. There were some concerns over an eye problem for Ross Taylor, but he will play and have surgery after the test series.

Pakistan (likely):

1 Sami Aslam, 2 Azhar Ali (capt.), 3 Babar Azam, 4 Younis Khan, 5 Mohammad Rizwan, 6 Asad Shafiq, 7 Sarfraz Ahmed (wk), 8 Wahab Riaz, 9 Yasir Shah, 10 Mohammad Amir, 11 Sohail Khan

Pakistan may opt for Mohammad Rizwan instead of Sharjeel Khan. While What Riaz could replace Rahat Ali. The two bowling changes will help the side to take twenty wickets on a surface expected to give plenty of assistance, but they don’t fix an already long tail.

The Key Players

New Zealand

Tim Southee – A slightly odd highlight for a bowler that has been without his best for some time. The former spearhead has lost speed, swing and rhythm since Alan Donald and then Shane Bond left the NZ coaching group. However, in this test, without Trent Would, he’s needed more than ever. He’s the main swing bowler in the group (Wagner and Henry are much more into the pitch bowlers) and in favourable conditions needs to take charge and make the batsmen uncomfortable.

Pakistan

Azhar Ali – The Pakistani captain was solid in Christchurch without being spectacular. He batted for 173 balls in the second innings to blunt the NZ bowling group at the start of the second dig, but a better approach to turning over the strike is now required. Bowlers get too comfortable bowling to one player and not conceding runs, the pressure goes on the batsman and not the bowler. Ali should be looking to help out his fellow batsman and keep the scoreboard ticking over, because once he falls, the team has a penchant to collapse. He’s especially crucial given Misbah will miss the match.

The Match Odds

New Zealand – $2.40 at Unibet.

Pakistan – $5.10 at Unibet.

Draw – $2.54 at Unibet.

The Prediction

It’s hard to see Pakistan putting up more of a fight than they did in Christchurch. That’s not implying their not good enough or mentally prepared to tough it out, it’s simply an indication of the unfamiliarity of the cold, bowler friendly conditions. Without Misbah the challenge looks too great. New Zealand by five wickets or 150 runs.

The Best Bets

If you believe in batsmen being “due” to score runs, then the money on Ross Taylor is attractive. He’s paying $5 to be New Zealand best batsman. He’s had his recent struggles but has traditionally been pretty consistent against Pakistan.

Rebuilding Starts as Australia Look to Avoid Whitewash

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There’s plenty of intrigue in game three of the Australian / South African cricket series. There’s pink balls, selection overhauls, argy-bargy in airports and ball tampering. Whatever happens, game three in Adelaide is sure to include some drama and some great betting opportunities.

Check out our thoughts on the day-night test:

The Last Time These Two Met

The second test in Hobart was an unmitigated disaster for the Australians. Collapses in both innings and the lowest number of balls faced in a home test match since 1928, meant a heavy defeat by an innings and 80 runs. Australia made just 85 in the first dig and 161 in the second (from a position of 2/129); struggling in the face of quality seam bowling by Abbott, Rabada and Philander.

The loss has been the catalyst for a significant overhaul in election policies and personnel. Gone is former chief selector Rod Marsh, replaced by Trevor Hohns, and sweeping changes have been made to the squad (more below). The unsettling changes could mean Australia are facing the very real threat of a series whitewash, which could mean they’re favourites as they look to blood fresh players that are unscathed from the previous two results.

The Teams

Australia (likely):

1 David Warner, 2 Matt Renshaw, 3 Usman Khawaja, 4 Steve Smith (capt), 5 Peter Handscomb, 6 Nic Maddinson, 7 Matthew Wade, 8 Mitchell Starc, 9 Josh Hazlewood, 10 Nathan Lyon, 11 Jackson Bird.

Australia has made a host of changes to the team that lost in Hobart. Out goes Joe Burns, Adam Voges, Peter Nevill, Joe Mennie and Callum Ferguson. In for their debuts are Renshaw, Handscomb and Maddinson. The selections are a significant shift in the Australian selectors thinking. Replacing older players with players of the future hasn’t always been their way (think Hussey, North, Voges and Rogers for players who made their debuts at late stages in their careers).

South Africa (likely):

1 Stephen Cook, 2 Dean Elgar, 3 Hashim Amla, 4 JP Duminy, 5 Faf du Plessis (capt), 6 Temba Bavuma, 7 Quinton de Kock (wk), 8 Vernon Philander, 9 KA Maharaj 10 Kyle Abbott, 11 Kagiso Rabada.

No changes expected for the South Africans after Far du Plessis was fined for ball tampering but not suspended.

The Key Players

Australia

David Warner – The left-hander has been the biggest disappointment in the series thus far. As always, he’s looking a million dollars every time he bats, but, he just can’t seem to go on with it and get the huge 170 that Australia is desperately seeking. As an important member of the senior leadership team, he needs to convert starts (aside from the 1 he scored in the first innings of game two, he’s had a start each time) into long innings and platforms for his middle order.

South Africa

Quinton de Kock – In the mould of Adam Gilchrist, de Kock has had a huge influence on this series. Scores of 64, 84, 104 not only display some beautiful symmetry and code but also evidence a batsman in exceptional form. If he can continue his free-scoring fun, even against the pink ball, South Africa will be well on the way to achieving the 3-0.

The Match Odds

Australia – $2.60 at Ladbrokes.

South Africa – $2.10 at Bet365.

Draw – $6.40 at Betfair.

The Prediction

The great leveller in game three is the pink ball. Notoriously difficult to see, prone to swinging and just a little unusual (just ask Matthew Wade, the colour blind keeper has admitted to having some issues seeing the ball); the pink ball and lights could even up the contest. It appears bookies are thinking the same way with less separating the teams than the first two tests would indicate.

We actually like Australia to win this one. They have more experience against the pink ball, and we’ve seen too many unlikely wins on the back of coach and player changes to tempt a nice turnaround script.

The Best Bets

There’s been plenty of money on Usman Khawaja ($4.70) and Matt Renshaw ($6) to be Australia’s top batsman. However, depending on when the top order face-off against the new ball, the top three might not be the safe option. What about Nic Maddinson at $7.60 instead.

On the bowling side of things, why not consider Vernon Philander to take wickets and thus be named man of the match ($13). If any bowler in world cricket can exploit a wobbling ball and favourable atmospheric conditions, it’s Philander.