Category: Football Tips

Close on Paper but Watford Holds the Value against Middlesbrough

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Middlesbrough takes on Watford at the Riverside on Sunday in what is a game that both sides believe equally they can win, but what’s the word in football betting circles? Both teams have had decent starts to the campaign but Boro has lagged of late. They have slipped to only two points above the drop zone and haven’t won in their last three league games.

Watford, on the other hand, has 8pts from their opening seven games which isn’t a bad return. They will travel to the Riverside fully believing that they can win this match and pick up all three points. This term, Middlesbrough have had something of a problem in finding the net. Just seven goals in seven games aren’t going to cut it at this level.

A Potent Threat

Watford on the other hand, seem to carry a much more potent threat going forward. The key question is where is the value? Do you think each team will cancel each other out? If so then back the draw! On paper, there isn’t really much to choose between these two teams. William Hill goes 23/20 on a home Middlesbrough win, while other firms like Stan James and BetVictor are 5/4.

We think the value though is in opposing Middlesbrough. They just don’t seem consistent and don’t seem to have the traditional home side edge. Watford is a good price 27/10 with Unibet as an away win. We feel that this bet perhaps linked with a draw could be the value.

Betbright is a best priced 12/5 for the draw. So a multiple bet on the draw and a Watford win should produce a nice profit.

Head to Head Stats

Watford just may have the psychological edge against Middlesbrough. This could be a key factor. Take into account the vital head-to-head stats for a minute. In the past five encounters, Middlesbrough has yet to beat The Hornets.

This even includes three matches at home where they have either drawn (twice) or been beaten. Also, Middlesbrough has only scored four times in those five games. They seem to be somewhat of a goal per game type of team. So if Watford scores, it is difficult to see Middlesbrough scoring twice, even at home.

The key to getting consistent results in the Premier League is in the chance conversion strike rate. Middlesbrough has a history of not scoring enough goals and this type of stat always puts the away team in with a shout.

Watford Always Score

Now here is a great stat for you. Watford always score! Yes, that’s right because in 15 out of the past 16 games vs Middlesbrough…..Watford has found the net! This all points to opposing Middlesbrough on Sunday. They do seem to be perhaps the most vulnerable of all the teams that are at home this weekend in the Premier League.

Only die hard Middlesbrough fans will be fancying their chances. The keen punters though will be looking at Watford and seeing them as one of the weekend’s value bets.

Man City to Edge a Close One

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

PEP Guardiola faces his first major test in his Manchester City tenure this weekend when his star studded squad host Everton at the Ethihad.

City, lost their unbeaten start to the new season last time out with a 2-0 defeat at Tottenham. That defeat came on the back of a very disappointing 3-3 Champions League draw with Celtic, and now the pressure is on for the Premier League leaders to show what they are all about and bounce back with a win.

Despite the loss at White Hart Lane, City are still the bookies odds-on favourites to win the Premier League title; they are just 1.50 across the board to win at the weekend and it certainly won’t be easy, but they should have enough quality to get back to winning ways.

The major concern for me if you’re considering having a serious wager on City is that they have a huge Champions League match with Barcelona at the Camp Nou on Wednesday night. That might be on Pep’s mind with his team selection ahead of this one, and I am expecting a whole-host of key players to be rested.

Everton haven’t got the best of records in the blue half of Manchester, with no wins in their last seven visits, but they did hold City to a 0-0 draw last year. With City expected to make changes to their lineup, this looks as though it might be another close one.

Ronald Koeman has had a great start to life at Goodison Park. His side arrive at what is their toughest challenge of the new season not in the best of form. After three matches without a win, it’s hard to make any case for them to win this one even at the 7.00 that is available with most firms in their Premier League betting.

Despite all the attacking players that will be on show, goals will be hard to come by, and under 2.5 goals has been a winning bet in the last three Everton matches, plus City might decide to rest their main man Sergio Aguero with Barcelona in midweek.

Four of the last five meetings between these two sides have also seen under 2.5 goals come in, so you may be tempted by the 2.62 with Betfred on under 2.5 goals again.

The evidence edges towards City to snatch a win here, and if they are struggling, they can always call on the big guns to come off the bench and steal the three points for a a 1-0 City win at 10.0 with BetVictor.

WBA vs. Tottenham: Will the Baggies Rise to the Challenge?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Saturday, October 15 at The Hawthorns it’s all set to go down between West Brom and Tottenham. Despite being separated by seven places in the league, both teams will know that even the slightest misstep could prove costly when the action gets underway at 15:00 local time.

As ever, the Internet’s top bookmakers are dusting off their record books, surveying the latest form and coming up with hundreds of betting markets for the match. However, before we get into the best Premier League bets this weekend, let’s first take a look at the footballing prospect in front of us.

The Momentum Lies with Tottenham

On first inspection, this should prove to be a routine win for Tottenham. Fresh off a 2-0 whitewash of Man City, Spurs are currently enjoying a rich vein of form that’s seen them climb to second in the table. Indeed, with Son Heung-min taking everyone by surprise with his goal scoring prowess (he scored two of the best goals in September) and the backline only conceding three in seven, things are certainly looking rosy for the Lilywhites.

But, as is often the case in the Premier League, nothing is ever certain and West Brom could easily cause an upset. Listening to Captain Darren Fletcher talk ahead of the game, this is easy to believe. Pointing to his side’s impressive draw against Tottenham last season (the draw which virtually ended Spurs’ dreams of winning the league), Fletcher believes his players rise to the occasion.

Being in front of a home crowd and with a place in the top five still very much a possibility, West Brom won’t want to give anything away in this match, and that could inspire everyone to up their effort. Another positive for The Baggies is that Craig Gardner recently signed a new two-year contract.

The 29-year-old midfielder might not be a marquee name who’s capable of setting the pitch alight, but his solid frame and experience make him a valuable asset to the team. In fact, in big games against big sides, it’s often the elder statesmen like Gardener who can come on and make the difference. Whether that’s putting in some crunch tackles when the team is on a low or whether it’s a cool head when the side is protecting a narrow lead, a senior player like Gardner is also worth having in the squad.

Do the Stats Tell a Scary Story?

However, if you move away from emotions and personalities, there’s one fact that could prove problematic for West Brom: goals against. Heading into the game, West Brom have conceded seven goals which, ironically, is the same number of goals Tottenham have scored away. If you believe in omens then this could be a signal that suggests West Brom will be penetrated at every opportunity. However, if you’re slightly less superstitious but still like to rely on the numbers, it does appear that West Brom’s resolve might be tested on Saturday.

Since we know that Spurs don’t seem to have a problem scoring away from home, it’s fair to say that the over on 2.5 goals at even money with Sun Bets isn’t a bad wager. If you wanted to take this idea a step further, Sky Bets’ exactly 1 goal at 7/2 or exactly 2 goals at 9/4 could be worth a shout.

If you want to move away from the specifics and be a bit more general, bet365 is currently offering 4/1 on a home win, 14/5 on a draw and 13/20 on an away win. Given what we’ve said about West Brom rising to the occasion against top teams (as they did last season), this seems like a massive price. Of course, if you wanted to hedge your bets, 13/10 on a West Brom win or draw seems like a fair price. Indeed, despite Tottenham’s propensity to score away from home this season, West Brom haven’t exactly been shy of goals either (eight in total) which may mean a 1-1 draw will be the order of the day on Saturday.

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World Cup Qualifiers: Wales v Georgia/Moldova v Republic of Ireland

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

THIS set of World Cup qualifiers are never ending, and we’ve got two more on Sunday to preview before the Premier League returns starting with Wales’ Group D clash with Georgia in Cardiff.

The Welsh have made a great start to their World Cup qualifying campaign starting with a routine 4-0 route at home to Moldova, which was followed with an equally impressive 2-2 draw in Austria midweek.

Chris Coleman’s side will count themselves very unlucky not to win in Vienna after the Welsh led twice; they looked much the better side throughout the 90 minutes, and they are a confident selection to maintain their unbeaten start with a win against Georgia.

The bookies won’t give you much for your buck though, and the layers have the Welsh at just 1.33 for the win, which is too short for me to get too heavily involved. They will, however, be included in my weekend World Cup accumulator.

Georgia had their chances on Thursday night against an injury hit Republic of Ireland side, but the Georgians just can’t score goals against top quality opposition, and I can’t see them causing a confident Wales any problems at all in Cardiff.

So for that reason, the best way to play in this one is to back the Welsh to win this to nil, which at 1.83 with Paddy Power is a much better bet than taking the home side at the short odds just to win the game in 90 minutes.

Moldova v Republic of Ireland

MARTIN O’Neil takes his injury hit Republic of Ireland squad to Moldova on Sunday in another Group D World Cup qualifier clash, and this is going to be a lot closer than the bookies odds suggest.

The Irish are totally decimated by injuries ahead of this trip, with Norwich’s Robbie Brady adding his name to the long list of casualties in the 1-0 win over Georgia. To make matters worse for the Irish, their best performer in the last 12 months, Hull’s record breaking summer signing Jeff Hendrick, is suspended for the trip as well.

The Irish used all their luck on Thursday night in Dublin as for long parts of the match they were totally outplayed by the Georgians, and even though I think they will win, the Irish reserves aren’t tempting me for a wager at odds of just 1.57.

The Moldovans have been lambs to the slaughter in both of their Group D qualifiers after a 4-0 defeat in Wales and a 3-0 home loss to Serbia in their most recent qualifier on Thursday night.

After those two heavy defeats, they’ve been given a 7.50 quote to win this match with the odds compilers at Sportingbet, which if successful will see them win only their second international in two years.

The Irish should have enough quality to get through, even though they are missing a whole host of key players. They have struggled for goals since the retirement from international football of record goalscorer Robbie Keane, and for that reason the odds on offer look too short for me to get involved on the win market.

This Irish squad doesn’t look to have many goals in it, and this match looks all about the result rather than the performance; another Ireland 1-0 win at 6.00 with Paddy Power looks a sensible play, but the best bet is to beat Ireland to win this to nil, which is 2.30 with Paddy Power.

New Era for English Football in World Cup Qualifier

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

YET another new era in English football starts at Wembley on Saturday when Gareth Southgate takes charge of the England national team for the first time against the minnows of Malta in their World Cup Qualifier clash on Saturday.

As introductions to international football go, well this is about as easy as it can get for the former Middlesbrough boss with England the heavy 1.03 to get the new boss off to a winning start.

Malta are the 101.0 rank outsiders to produce ‘the’ biggest shock in international football and on the evidence of their 5-1 drubbing at home to Scotland in their Group F opener a £10 bet on Malta at 101.0 will see you lose a tenner.

I don’t think this will be as convincing as many expect though.

The Scotland defeat was the first time that Malta have conceded more than three goals in their last 11 competitive internationals and the visitors look set to park the Maltese bus in front of their goal at Wembley and hope to frustrate their more illustrious opponents.

The “Three Lions” have taken a time to break down resolute defensives at Wembley in recent matches with San Marino, but once they do get the opening goal others will follow very quickly.

The bookies have 4-0 the most likely England win at 6.50, but I prefer the 3-0 success at 7.50 with Paddy Power as I expect a whole host of substitutes in the second half, once victory is guaranteed, to disrupt the tempo of the game.

Scotland v Lithuania

SCOTLAND will be looking to continue their fine World Cup winning start to Group F on Saturday when they host Lithuania at Hampden Park.

The Scots hammered England’s opponents Malta 5-1 in their group opener, and now that they are back on home turf they will be far too strong for a Lithuania side that have only won once in their last eight internationals.

Hampden Park has become a fortress for the Scottish national side; it is a venue they’ve only lost at twice (against Germany and England) in three years on their own patch, and I can’t see Lithuania troubling the Tartan Army.

Gordon Strachan’s side are at general 1.50 for the win, and that looks a banker bet and will feature in my weekend accumulator.

These two nations are no strangers to each other having faced-off eight times previously in qualification with Lithuania winning just once way back in 2003.

In the most recent meeting at Hampden Park Scotland edged it 1-0 in 2011; in the last two meetings between the two nations Lithuania have failed to score, so I can’t see them scoring in this latest renewal, and a Scotland win to nil at a general 2.10 looks another very nice bet.

Northern Ireland v San Marino

Northern Ireland host San Marino at Windsor Park in the final match on Saturday night in another very one-sided qualifier.

The Northern Irish would never have been as short as 1.03 to win a World Cup qualifier, and that is the tiny odds on offer for Michael O’Neil’s side at the weekend to beat a side rated 211 on the current FIFA World rankings.

The two things that are certain in this match is Northern Ireland will win and San Marino won’t score.

San Marino have only managed TWO goals in their last 20 international matches so an Ireland win to nil at 1.22 with Coral is a certainty, but again offers no value to small staking players.

The pair have met twice previously in World Cup qualifying in 2008 and 2009, and at Windsor Park the Irish came out 4-0 winners and that is the joint favourite score-line again at 6.0 with Paddy Power alongside 3-0 which is the same price; of the two, a 3-0 Irish win would be my preference.

Manchester Derby Betting Preview: Three Hidden Wagers

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The first Manchester derby of the season is set to take place on September 10 and this time around the tension is palpable.

With Jose Mourinho and Pep Guardiola about to square off for the first time under the bright lights of Old Trafford, fans, pundits and neutrals are all licking their lips in anticipation of this tactical master class.

Options Galore for Fans and Punters Alike

Will Guardiola invert his wing-backs and go with a 4-1-4-1 system and if he does, how will Mourinho counter City’s attacking flow? What if Mourinho floods the middle of the park with players in a bid to shut out City and counter on the break?

The tactical possibilities for both sides are enough to get football fans around the world salivating, but what about those who sense a chance to make a few extra quid during this Manchester derby? What do all these possibilities mean for the pre-game betting markets?

From a general perspective, United are the betting favourites with Sun Bets. 13/10 is the current price on Mourinho’s men to do the business, while 11/5 says City will take three points back across Manchester.

However, with so much potential on the pitch, there’s a lot more value out there then a simple outright bet. In fact, with Paddy Power offering some off-the-wall bets, the canny punter could pick up a pretty penny when the tackles start to fly this Saturday.

Manchester United vs. Manchester City Best Bets

So, with this in mind, we’ve cherry picked some of Paddy Power’s more interesting bets you might have missed ahead of the big showdown:

Jose Mourinho to be sent to the stands – 10/1

If there’s anyone with more passion on the touchline than Mr. Mourinho then we’re yet to see him. While the likes of Rooney or Ibrahimovic are more likely to score a caution than Mourinho, he’s never been one for shying away from a tense situation. If the score line is tight and things aren’t going his way, Mourinho could easily find himself watching from the stands which makes 10/1 a price you can’t ignore.

Ibrahimovic and Iheanacho to both score in 90 minutes – 13/2

With United and City both firing on all cylinders this season, goals will certainly be on the cards this Saturday. If that’s the case, then Ibrahimovic and Iheanacho are likely to be in the mix, and that makes 13/2 a hugely attractive proposition. In fact, if you’re looking for slightly more value from this intriguing head-to-head, then one player to outscore the other could also be a solid bet. 2/1 says Ibrahimovic will reign supreme while 4/1 says his counterpart will bang in the most goals. Either way the odds make these wagers worth a punt.

Goal to be scored between the 86th minute and fulltime – 25/1

A Manchester derby at Old Trafford just wouldn’t be the same if there wasn’t some late drama. While the days of the Ferguson 94th minute winner might have gone, there’s no denying that United have a knack of stealing games at the death. Of course, nothing is certain in a game of this magnitude, but given United’s history of late goals there’s no reason this bet couldn’t materialise. Indeed, if you treat it as one of those small stake/high return propositions, then 25/1 is a price you should be more than willing to take.

Whichever way you slice it and however you ante-up, Manchester United vs. Manchester City looks set to be a barnstormer. Whether you take advantage of the bets outlined above or you visit Paddy Power for the latest live odds, there’s plenty of potential this weekend if you’re willing to look for it.