Category: Football Tips

Benfica vs. Dortmund – Goal Fest on the Cards?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Champions League returns this Tuesday with a raft of exciting match-ups. While we have seen teams like Bayern and Arsenal play each other almost too frequently in recent years, this is the first time we have seen these two titans of European football coming together in a UEFA Champions League game. An intense, high-scoring game seems likely.

Dortmund

Despite a challenging ongoing domestic campaign, fourth in the Bundesliga, Dortmund were successful in powering through a group seemingly dominated by champions Real Madrid. A brace of 2:2 draws against the Spanish Giants, 14 goals in two games against Legia Warsaw and a double over Sporting Lisbon saw them top their group by away goal differential. Unlike some, Dortmund was actually rewarded for finishing top of their group with a draw against an opposition who they will feel they have every chance of progressing against.

Dortmund will again be looking to frontman Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to provide the impetus for a win against the Portuguese champions. With 15 goals 13 matches, Aubameyang is one of the form strikers currently playing in Europe; his combination of speed, strength and skill is proving to be all but unstoppable. Any chance of a result for Benfica will rely on their ability to frustrate him.

While Aubameyang will almost certainly start next Tuesday, Borussia will potentially have to deal with a number of key absences: Sven Bender, Lukasz Piszczek, Marco Reus, Marcel Schmelzer and Mario Gotze are all in doubt, while Nuri Sahin may be fit to make a return.

Benfica

Currently sitting top of Primeira Liga and looking to defend their title, Benfica has been enjoying some quality form this season. Unlucky to be pipped to top of Group B by Napoli in a group that could have gone any number of different ways, they will likely be thankful to not be facing Real Madrid, a prospect the Italians are no doubt relishing.

In squad with a number of established goal scorers and playmakers, Benfica will be looking to Konstantinos Mitroglou and Pizzi to provide the spark and ability needed to put their team past Dortmund’s quality. Benfica’s injury list is small, compared to Borussia, with Lisandro Lopez and Eduardo Salvio the only players in doubt for Tuesday.

The value

Picking apart the value here was always going to be a challenge, with no head to head data to speak of, and with erratic Dortmund so capable of both scoring and conceding with gusto. The Germans did, however, play Sporting twice in the group phase, winning both games 2:1. This gives us a slight idea how Dortmund fair against Portuguese opponents, although Benfica is a different animal to their bitter rivals.

While the instinct would be to predict goals here, the first leg of CL knockouts so often involves both teams playing conservatively, seeking each other out and trying to minimise the scoreline. Despite this, I think Dortmund will prioritise getting an away goal, potentially at the risk of conceding: BTTS is at 7/10 with Bet 365, Dortmund Win & BTTS/Yes at 10/3, and 5/1 for Benfica all seem like good value, depending on your view. Considering the injuries Dortmund may be facing, it could well be worth backing the slight underdogs at home.

 

Will PSG Topple the Mighty Barcelona?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Champions League is set to return after its traditional Christmas and New Year break. We have now reached the knockout stages. The pick of the last-16 ties is clearly between Paris St Germain and Barcelona. With the departure of several key players, PSG is no longer the force they have been in recent seasons.

Their league position sees them tied with Nice and three points behind Monaco. In recent seasons with the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic leading the line, they have been catering to the French title. Those days appear to have gone and this leaves this current PSG team as significant underdogs against Barcelona.

Spanish Clubs are Dominating

The big three of Spanish football of Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid have been dominating the Champions League in recent seasons. Madrid lifted the trophy in 2014 and 2016 with Barcelona winning in 2006, 2009, 2011 and again in 2015. Meanwhile, Atletico has been beaten finalists in 2014 and 2016. There have been two all-Spanish finals in the past three seasons and only a fool would back against that again.

Barcelona with their triple strike force of Suarez, Messi and Neymar have proved tough to stop. However, they are struggling to keep pace with rivals Real Madrid in the league. So both Barcelona and PSG have dropped a level since last season. The first leg between PSG and Barcelona will be held in Paris. PSG must at least go back to the Nou Camp with a draw to have any chance.

Looking for the Best Bets

So just why do Barcelona win so many matches? The answer is obvious. Looking back through their matches this season and with the odd exception, they always score. Even in defeat they still manage to score. The basic fact of a football match is that if you can score, your opponents must score at least twice to beat you. This is why Messi, Neymar and Suarez have been such powerful acquisitions for Barcelona.

It is tough to see how PSG can stop Barcelona from scoring but two bets stand out above all others. The first one is the 11-10 offered by BetVictor for a Barcelona victory. Even as the away team these are good odds. The second bet is for Barcelona to be ahead at half time and at full time. Bet365 are quoting 9-4 for that bet.

The fact of the matter is that while both teams have slipped this season, PSG has slipped further. Barcelona has had several key losses this season and have been very un-Barcelona like at times. They will still have far too much for PSG and will comfortably go through over two legs.

Swansea v Leicester: Basement Battle of the Two Cities

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It is widely lauded by all and sundry as being the greatest league in the world. But while at the top end of the table Chelsea Football Club looks to be cantering towards a sixth title, it is at the foot of the Premier League table where all the real drama and excitement seems to be currently being generated.

And at 1600 hours GMT on Sunday afternoon, the drama doesn’t get much more tense as reigning Premier League champions Leicester City travel to South Wales to face fellow relegation-threatened Swansea City in a hugely significant match for both teams. It promises to be a real nail-biter for both sets of supporters with the clubs equal on 21 points and sitting uncomfortably just a single point clear of the dreaded drop zone.

Swans searching for home comforts

New Swansea boss Paul Clement, who has spent much of his coaching career to date looking down on the rest of the league table as Carlo Ancelotti’s assistant at Chelsea, PSG, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, has taken to management at the wrong end of the table like a duck to water.

Three wins from four league matches in January including a thrilling first ever away victory over Liverpool at Anfield has breathed new life into a Swansea team who had looked doomed to relegation under Clement’s predecessors Francesco Guidolin and Bob Bradley. And the Swans were desperately unlucky not to emerge from last Sunday’s visit to Manchester City with a potentially precious point, Gabriel Jesus’ injury time winner cruelly denying them at the last.

Before Clement’s arrival, Swansea’s home form had made for uneasy reading with just eight points taken at the Liberty Stadium, a poor return given their record of just five home defeats the previous season. The in-form club is now 6/4 with Coral for the drop while Sunday’s opponents Leicester are slightly longer odds at 2/1 with William Hill to complete a rapid fall from grace and finish in the bottom three just 12 months after topping the pile so thrillingly.

Foxes in desperate need of first away win

The last time Leicester won a Premier League match away from home, against Sunderland last April, the club was motoring towards a first ever top division title win. Now just 10 months on, the deposed champions have yet to register a league win on their travels all season, after boasting a record of just two losses on the road in 2015-16.

To say it has been a disappointing defence of their trophy would be bordering on the understatement of the millennium. And despite Foxes boss Claudio Ranieri getting the dreaded vote of confidence earlier this week, he remains the favourite ahead of Middlesbrough’s Aitor Karanka to be the next top-flight manager to lose his job, registering as short as 6/4 with BetVictor.

On current form, Swansea should go into his match as overwhelming favourites for victory given their recent promising results and Leicester’s continuing awful form. Yet, Bet365 are still offering tasty odds of 6/4 for a home win while Leicester is 21/10 with BetVictor to finally register a first away win of the campaign.

And talking of decent odds, how about this for a potential money maker? With Leicester having lost four matches in succession on the road with no goals scored and 10 conceded, serious consideration should be given to having a small flutter on Swansea keeping a clean sheet on Sunday, with odds of 9/4 on offer from Bet365.

With some difficult matches lying in wait for both clubs, a defeat for either would significantly deepen relegation worries. It promises to be a close but nervy encounter.

Blue Army to Breach Claret Fortress: Betting Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Hopeless (and winless) away from home, Burnley have already won at Turf Moor on nine occasions in this league campaign. As a result, the Clarets occupy a respectable mid-table spot as the 2016/17 season approaches its final third.

Home comforts will be an important asset for Burnley this weekend, with league leaders Chelsea imminently coming to town.

One step closer for Conte

Antonio Conte has forged a Chelsea side that looks unstoppable at present. Already, most pundits agree that Chelsea will be runaway champions, with the West London club boasting an at-times unplayable front three. Chelsea also possesses a fantastic Premier League record against Burnley, conceding just one point to the Lancashire side since 2009/10.

With momentum firmly in favour of the visitors, most respected bookmakers are offering nothing better than 2/5 for a Chelsea win. Meanwhile, a braver bettor can back a not unthinkable draw at 15/4 with Bet Victor.

A trip down Memory Lane?

With Burnley fired up, Sunday’s match could easily see a repeat of 2014/15’s opening weekend emerge.

On the evening of 18 August 2014, Burnley made a blazing start against Chelsea. Scottish-Canadian midfielder Scott Arfield opened the scoring on just 14 minutes and Turf Moor erupted. Sadly for the Clarets, the good times were short-lived.

The visitors roared back to win 3-1 that night. However, this Burnley side is eminently stronger than the relegated rabble of two seasons ago. With that in mind, the smart money is on Burnley’s top goalscorer Andre Gray to be the man who lets Chelsea know they have a real game on their hands. Gray is currently 11/1 with Betfred in the First Goalscorer market.

Burnout for the Burnley boys

Odds of up to 17/5 (Bet Victor) are available for a level half time score, followed by a Chelsea win. Chelsea’s superior fitness will be the telling factor where stamina is concerned. That noted, bettors should respect the fact that this Burnley squad has a sufficient team ethic to remain level with Chelsea until half time.

Such a bet could also combine potently with the 2+ Goalscorer market, as the league’s most improved player prepares to take centre stage once again.

Healthy Hazard

Eden Hazard is flourishing in his new role. Under Conte’s system, he has used his athleticism and ball control to more efficiently turn midfield play into all-out attack. This should work extremely well against a Burnley defence which rode its luck in the last home game against Leicester.

On paper at least, it is a farce of a matchup between Hazard and his likeliest personal opponents – Michael Keane and Matt Lowton. This is reflected in unusually short (yet tempting) odds of 17/2 with Bet 365 for Hazard to enjoy a two-goal Sunday salvo.

Predicting the unpredictable

Sky-subscribing Chelsea acolytes, from Quito to Queenstown, should enjoy a fascinating encounter on the big screen. It will be a sign of true championship credentials if Chelsea can break down a resolute Burnley side on hostile turf.

Burnley will surely put up a fight, so the official Betcirca prediction for this encounter is Burnley 2-3 Chelsea (available at 33/1 with Stan James).

Picture Source: Wikipedia Commons / Credit: Aleksandr Osipov

Liverpool vs. Tottenham: Is a Win Too Much to Expect?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If Tottenham is going to pull off an upset and leapfrog Chelsea to win the Premier League this season, they’ll have to start by winning what’s certain to be a tough test at Anfield on February 11. Despite a gap of four points and three league places, Spurs aren’t necessarily the favourites heading into what will be a crunch match.

Now, before we run through the odds and see exactly where the bookmakers’ sympathies lay, there are two important facts to point out. The first is that Tottenham hasn’t won at Anfield since 2011. In the last eight games between Liverpool and Tottenham at Anfield, the former have won five and drawn three. To make things worse for the visitors, Anfield is the place they’ve lost the most frequently in the Premier League (15 losses from 24 games).

History Doesn’t Favour Spurs

For all intents and purposes, Spurs don’t seem to like travelling north to play Liverpool. In fact, manager Mauricio Pochettino doesn’t seem to like playing against Liverpool anywhere as he’s never beaten them with a Tottenham team. However, as bad as history has been to the London club, those that like to live in the moment will be buoyed by our second significant fact: Liverpool hasn’t won in the Premier League in 2017.

If we discount an FA win at Plymouth Argyle, Liverpool seems to have perfected the art of losing to “lesser teams” and drawing with top opposition. For example, the Reds went from a well-earned draw against Chelsea to losing 2-0 to Hull City. Aside from being a surprising turn of events, this run of results seems to suggest that Liverpool is inconsistent.

Naturally, if you’re going to win the Premier League, you have to be consistent; especially after Christmas. However, we’re not talking about the title race; we’re looking at Liverpool vs. Tottenham in isolation. Based on this recent run, the data would suggest that Liverpool will enter the game as favourites (from a historical standpoint), but the end result will be a draw. If you’re inclined to follow this logic, 23/10 on a draw with Sun Bets isn’t a bad price. However, for our money, Liverpool half-time and a draw full-time at 14/1 with Sky Bet is hard to ignore.

Confidence Will Help Liverpool, but Tottenham Remain a Threat

There’s no doubt Liverpool will start the match full of confidence. Even if we ignore history, Anfield is always a fortress and with the side desperate to give the home fans a win in 2017, they’ll no doubt come out all guns blazing. A single goal before half-time is more than possible, but with Tottenham showing a propensity to score, there’s every chance they’ll come back in the second half.

In fact, as goal hungry as Tottenham have been in recent weeks, Liverpool have also shown they’re no strangers to the back of the net. 52 goals in 24 Premier League matches is better than anyone (except Arsenal who also has 52 goals) and if the Reds can continue this form, we could be in for a high-scoring draw. 2-2 is currently 12/1 at Coral which, when you consider 3-3 is 50/1, doesn’t look to be a bad bet.

It Could be Too Close to Call

Why haven’t we mentioned the odds on a win?

Well, it should come as no secret that we’re pushing our chips towards a draw on this one. However, if you’re looking to back the historical stats, 6/5 is the price on a Liverpool win at Sun Bets. In contrast, if current form is more important, then 11/5 is the going rate at Coral. Either way, the odds makers have it close, which is why we’re hedging our bets on a stalemate.

Does that mean there won’t be goals and drama? Certainly not. However, if both teams play to their potential, then there should be very little to choose between them on this occasion.

Man United vs. Watford – Return of the Giant Slayers

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

This Saturday sees Manchester United entertaining a resurgent Watford, and Walter Mazzari will be eager for a repeat of last week’s shock win against Arsenal at the Emirates. United are unbeaten in the league since October and are looking to preserve that run.

Man United

Coming off the back of 3 consecutive league draws, Sunday’s win away against Champions Leicester came as welcome relief for the United faithful. An impressive display from Mourinho’s men, if somewhat emphasised by Leicester’s complete lack of quality, sees them keep pace with the pack chasing 4th place. Currently sitting in 6th with 45 points, they are only 5 points behind Tottenham in second place; both Liverpool and Arsenal’s campaigns have fallen into disarray, and United now have a solid chance of claiming a Champions League spot next year. Their last Premier League loss was 4:0 against Chelsea in October, at a time when many were writing them off and declaring Mourinho to be past it. Since then, United have rallied under the Portuguese, quietly consolidating themselves into a position where they can mount a challenge on 4th place.

Watford

Watford had gone 7 league games without a win when they were dumped out of the FA Cup by League 1 Millwall. After that particularly poor performance, many were asking whether Watford would backslide into the expanding relegation fight. Their quality shone through against Arsenal, however, and they followed it up with a home win against Burnley. With 8 points in 4 games pushing them up to 10th, Watford is looking to be pretty much safe from the drop, bar a really shocking decline of form.

Head to Head

These two teams have played each other 3 times in recent years, United winning both games last season. This season, Watford have the opportunity to do the double against the Manchester giants, as the corresponding fixture at Vicarage Road in September saw Watford win 3:1, a game that brought as many plaudits down on Watford as harsh criticisms of United. Mourinho will be keen to avenge that result and score a victory against Mazzari, a man he once called “a hard working donkey” who would “never become a thoroughbred”. Mazzari will be eager to slay two giants in two weeks and get another one up on an old rival from Serie A.

Injuries

Marcos Rojo, Phill Jones and Timothy Fosu-Mensah are all in doubt for Saturday, and Wayne Rooney is currently suffering from an illness. For Watford, Costel Pantilimon, Christian Kabesele, Robert Pereya and Nordin Amrabat will all likely miss the game.

The Value

Despite Watford’s improving form and capacity for beating the top teams, I expect United to wear them down over 90 minutes. Dropping home points against Hull will be fresh in Mourinho’s mind and he won’t want to let it happen again here, and they will be all the warier after that defeat all those months ago. At 2/9 on Bet365, there is really very little value in backing a straight home win, but United to Win and BTTS/No at 2/1 might be worth a go.

Watford does have the potential to cause an upset, however, and backing them on a Double Chance at 5/2 with William Hill could be worth a pop.