Category: Football Tips

Burnley vs. Southampton – Saints in a Turf War

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

This weekend sees Southampton travel to the North to bounce back against a Burnley side who are as strong at home as they are so desperately poor away.

Coming back from the dead

December started and ended brutally for Claude Puel’s Southampton; the beginning of the month saw them crash out of their Europa league group, the end saw 3 consecutive league defeats in 7 days. Some are pointing to Southampton as an example of a victim of the packed Premier League Christmas scheduling, and it’s easy to sympathise with those claims. Fortune favours the bold, however, and Southampton will have to return to form immediately if they want to keep pace with their rivals for the Europa league spots.

The Saints won the corresponding fixture 3:1 in October, and the only other previous meeting between these two in the top flight was in the 2014/15 season, which saw both teams winning at home.

Puel has a few injuries to add to the general squad fatigue. The long-term absences of Austin, Pied and Targett are compounded by the doubt around McCarthy and Boufal, with Martina and Soares who potentially lack match fitness. They also have a midweek EFL Semi Final against Liverpool which could easily exacerbate their existing fitness problems.

A tale of two seasons

It is hard to think of another team in the Prem whose season can be so starkly divided as Burnley; their home form would put them sixth, having only dropped points in 4 games and have 7 home wins at Turf Moor, while their away form would put them bottom of the table, with 1 solitary point from 9 games. Currently 12th, Burnley are only one point behind Southampton, and a win on Saturday would see them leapfrog them by two points. Considering their poor away record, it’s a bit of a push to start thinking about Burnley competing for 7th place, but a victory here against an immediate rival could galvanise them into something truly surprising. A continuation of their great home form will be vital to consolidating or improving on their current position come May. They will go into this game looking for strategic points against a demoralised rival, confident of their ability to win.

In contrast to their opponents, Burnley’s festive fixtures proved fruitful, giving them 6 points from 9, including a 4:1 thumping of Sunderland and a spirited 2:1 defeat to Man City. Sean Dyche will certainly be thankful for a more forgiving schedule than Southampton, but his squad isn’t without injury concerns: Gudmundsson, Bamford and Arnfield are all definitely out, and there is concern for Flanagan and Boyd.

The value

Bookies are favouring Southampton for the win here, with Bet 365 having Southampton at 11/10, Burnley and Draw are both at 12/5. These odds seem pretty tasty, and with Burnley Double Chance at 3/4, going with the home side could be profitable, if a bit risky. Southampton is a very capable on their day, but considering Burnley’s home form, and the fact they have had a 7-day break (compared with Southampton’s 3 days) suggest that it might be worth going with the outsider.

Looking at the goals market, Under 2.5 goal is backed by the bookies, at 8/13 with Bet Victor. Southampton does statistically favour Under, and Burnley goes either way. However, Southampton’s last 5 games in all competitions have gone Over 2.5. I would definitely consider putting a small stake on Burnley to Win & Over 2.5.

Can Tottenham Maintain their Great Title Form?

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Tottenham fans simply cannot forget how they let the title slip last season. What made matters even worse was in how they were eventually overtaken by close neighbours Arsenal and finished third. Those wounds still run deep around White Hart Lane. Tottenham struggled to come to terms with playing at Wembley and were subsequently dumped out of the Champions League a few weeks ago.

Their form in the Premier League has been excellent. They currently have 42pts from 20 games and should that form continue until the end of the season, they will surely make the top four. Tottenham is currently 7pts behind leaders Chelsea. Their impressive 2-0 win against The Blues last week took some momentum out of the Chelsea title charge. It also dragged Spurs back into the race.

Tottenham Simply Must Win

If Tottenham really is going to contest the title race then they must surely beat West Brom at home. With a seven-point deficit to overcome, securing three points at home to middle of the table teams is a necessity. Tottenham has started 2017 with a bang. They thumped Watford 4-1 away and then recorded back-to-back 2-0 home victories against Chelsea and Aston Villa in the FA Cup.

West Brom on the other hand, is a very resilient team under Tony Pulis. They have also had an impressive first half to the season. With an impressive 29pts recorded so far, West Brom currently sits eighth in the table. They may have lost at home to Derby County in the FA Cup last weekend, but that won’t have bothered Tony Pulis too much.

Where are the Best Bets?

Despite Tottenham arguably having one of the best squads in the league, their odds in this match are prohibitive. William Hill offers the stand out odds of 4-11 for a Spurs home win. You can also get an attractive 10-1 from Ladbrokes for an away win for West Brom. While Tottenham may be in decent form, they have drawn a lot of games this season and especially during the opening twelve matches.

This means that the 9-2 offered by BetFred may tempt a few people should you predict a Tottenham slip up. The chances are that Tottenham will win but the value is thin at best with odds of 4-11. While the 10-1 from Ladbrokes for an away victory does seem tempting, you will lose your money a significant number of times placing bets like these given how well Tottenham are playing at the moment. The recommended bet here would be to back Tottenham while placing a quarter of your stake on the draw as a safeguard.

The Relegation Battle – Which teams Look Doomed for the Drop?

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We are well into the second half of the 2016-17 Premier League season. This is easily long enough to know which teams are likely to be relegated. Half of the teams in the bottom six have changed their manager recently but history tells us that this tactic doesn’t always work.

The latest Premier League odds are quite revealing in who is likely to go down. Sunderland currently is 1-5 to be relegated. A combination of their current situation and the fact that David Moyes seems once again to be a manager out of his depth are the reasons behind why the bookies think Sunderland are doomed.

Given how most teams sack their manager as an act of desperation at some stage then it will be no surprise to see David Moyes get sacked if Sunderland doesn’t start winning soon. There is only so much that a new manager can do. If a team lacks overall Premier League quality then that team will struggle to survive. In some instances, it can be the manager’s fault or the fault of the players that don’t fancy a relegation scrap.

Can Someone “do a Leicester”

We can all remember the miraculous escape that Leicester City performed under Nigel Pearson the season before they won the title. The fact is that we only remember Leicester’s great escape because it happens so rarely. A team may ultimately avoid the drop but when they lack quality, they are simply incapable of shooting up the league in the second half of the season. The end result is they stay in the bottom six all the way until the final few days of the season.

What may surprise a few people is how Hull City are 1-4 to be relegated but Crystal Palace who is currently on the same points total are 13-8. This can only be because of Sam Allardyce becoming the new Palace manager and his great record of helping teams to avoid the drop. Generally speaking, what happens in the past is not guaranteed to happen again in the future which makes those odds wrong. Clubs hire “Big Sam” because they see it as a “get out of jail” card when they are in relegation trouble. The question is will the luck run out for Big Sam?

Which Teams are Likely to Survive

Let’s turn this equation on its head by looking at which teams are likely to survive. Based on the situation as it stands, any team not in the bottom six will likely stay up. This means teams like Watford, Burnley and Bournemouth will still be Premier League teams next season. It seems incredible that last season’s champions are on the list of relegation candidates. Leicester needs to start picking up points. They are still some way short of the points total they need.

Paul Clement seems to be reviving Swansea City’s fortunes of late. They are now 11/10 to survive with Betfred after being odds on just a few weeks ago. A big factor that needs to be considered is the fixture list. The teams that have a tough finish to the season really need to start picking up points within the next few weeks if they are to stand any chance of surviving.

The one saving grace for all of the teams in the bottom six is in how the other candidates are failing to pick up points on a regular basis. This makes it tough to call on who will likely stay up and who will likely disappear through the relegation trap door.

Big Sam Aiming to Topple Title Contenders Arsenal

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Crystal Palace will make the short trip across London to face Arsenal at Emirates Stadium on New Year’s Day. And new manager Sam Allardyce will be looking to dent the Gunners title ambitions with his Palace charges aiming to move away from the relegation places.

Allardyce aiming for upset

Allardyce, who sensationally left his dream job as England manager in September after just 67 days and one match in charge, will be looking to build on the 1-1 draw his Palace team achieved in his first match in charge against Watford before the Christmas break.

However, it will be a tough ask against Arsene Wenger’s men who have lost only once at home this season, back in August against Liverpool in their season-opener. Six wins and two draws since that defeat for the Gunners will do little to encourage Palace supporters that their team can topple their hosts after five matches without a win on the road.

Yet, encouraging signs were visible against Watford at Vicarage Road in Big Sam’s first match after replacing Alan Pardew at the helm. And the former Bolton, Newcastle and Sunderland boss will concentrate primarily on addressing Palace’s leaky defence which has already conceded 20 goals in just nine away games this season.

Arsenal overwhelming favourites for victory

With Arsenal trailing league leaders Chelsea by nine points already and with fierce rivals Spurs breathing down their necks just a point behind in the table, Wenger will send his team out looking for a convincing win to maintain their challenge for a first title since 2004. There looks to be little value for money in backing Arsenal for the win, however, with odds of just 1/3 on offer across a host of bookmakers. A better return looks to be available from backing an Arsenal win coupled with both teams to score, 9/5 with Coral amongst others.

Alternatively for Palace fans may be unwilling to bet against their team, enticing odds of 19/20 are on offer from bet365 for both to teams to score, a particularly interesting set of odds for punters aware that Arsenal, despite their strong home record, have conceded on average a goal a game thus far at the Emirates this season.

For the overly optimistic, betvictor are offering huge odds of 10/1 for a Palace victory, as unlikely as that may be, while a more realistic proposition comes from bet365, who price Palace in the Double Chance market to win or claim a draw at a very tempting 11/4.

With his record of never having been relegated from the top flight of English football and an injection of fresh enthusiasm sure to have Palace fighting for the cause, a winning bet on Allardyce’s Eagles could mean a very happy and lucrative start to the new year for punters across the country. Big Sam will have to be at his motivational best, however, if Arsenal is to begin 2017 in losing fashion.

Watford vs. Tottenham: New Year, New Spurs

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While half of the UK will be waking up on January 1 feeling as though they’ve just taken a wayward Harry Kane penalty to the side of the head, Tottenham’s finest will be heading to Watford’s Vicarage Road.

Forming part of a New Year’s Day double-header, Watford vs. Tottenham looks as though it will gift the latter with a positive start to 2017. With the post-Christmas festivities being kind to Spurs, the bookies are all in agreement that an away win is where the odds will lay heading into this one.

Tottenham Finding their Form

Thanks to a 4-1 drubbing of Southampton, Mauricio Pochettino’s men will be on a high and the odds makers at Sun Bets have responded in kind by setting their win line at 4/6. Although Watford is far from sitting ducks at 4/1, the fact you can get a better price on a draw (14/5) than a home win would suggest The Hornets have it all to do on Sunday.

In fact, to make matters worse for Walter Mazzarri and the Hertfordshire side, Boxing Day’s 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace was a disappointing result. Despite Watford’s relative success so far this season (10th after 18 games), the performance against Palace left a lot to be desired. Maybe Palace was buoyed by the appointment of new manager Sam Allardyce, maybe they were full of cheer, but after 30 minutes they certainly didn’t look like a side that has only managed four wins this season.

Although Palace began to fade as the match wore on, Watford wasn’t able to assert much dominance and it was only by the grace of a penalty that they managed to sneak a draw. Now, to completely discount the performance by Palace would be harsh, but the reality is that Watford made them look good and if that happens when Tottenham come calling it could be a long 90 minutes.

Spurs’ Strike Rate on the Up

Spurs haven’t been a goal machine this season, but they proved they’ve got the firepower to score by putting four past Southampton. Has something clicked up front? Quite possibly, and if it has then the league leaders should be worried. As it stands, the London club has only conceded 13 this season and if they can combine this with more goals, they’ll become a very tough side to beat.

Unfortunately for Watford, they may be taking on Tottenham at the worst time possible. With a glut of goals distinctly possible, William Hill’s “Tottenham to win by 2 or more goals” bet at 9/4 could be good value. Although punters have been reluctant to speculate on goal bets when it comes to Tottenham this season, the Southampton win has certainly changed the tide and opened up the market.

There Will be Goals, But Don’t Go Crazy

Indeed, if you really fancy the likes of Kane and Dele Alli to hit the target on January 1, you can currently get 28/1 with Coral that Tottenham will clinch another 4-1 away win. Now, the chances of a repeat score line are probably quite low, so the smart money in this instance would probably be over 2.5 goals. Coral will give you 19/20 on this while Sun Bets’ team has pitched it at 10/11.

Although it would be unwise to completely write off Watford in this game, a draw would seem to be the only likely alternative outcome. If we accept that as a reality, it then becomes a matter of how many goals will Spurs win by? Given their current strike rate (just under two goals per game) and goals conceded, 2-0 (7/1 at William Hill) would be a strong bet for this New Year’s Day showdown.

Goals Expected At Anfield

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2016 ends with what looks a Premier League classic on Saturday evening when Liverpool host Manchester City at Anfield.

This clash between two of the best entertainers in England’s top flight promises to be one of the best games of the year as a defeat for either side is unthinkable.

Chelsea will lead the table going into 2017 and these two sides are the nearest pursuers to the Blues’ in the title race and both Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp will be well aware that a defeat for their side could see them out of the title race in January.

The bookies make Liverpool their 11/8 favourites with pretty much every layer and with three successive wins after a mini blip at the start of the month they are proving a popular selection.

City arrives in Merseyside in form as well, with three wins on the spin also; they are priced up at 13/5 across the board, and with a draw no good for either side, they will be going all out for the victory.

Where Do We Profit From This Match-up?

This is as tough as it gets to find a winner, and for me, the value plays lie far away from the match outcome, and the areas we have to concentrate instead for the winners are on the goals markets.

In eight of Liverpool’s last 12 matches, both teams have scored and that is exactly the same record at City; the 8/15 on both teams scoring again with William Hills is a banker for the NY Eve BTTS coupon, or for any big staking clients in a single.

Over 2.5 goals has also come in as a winner in four of the last five Liverpool matches and in four of the last six over at City, and again that looks another banker at the general 8/13 that is with all the bookies.

This match sees two of the best attacking sides in the Premier League, with equally poor defenses having to go all out for the win and with goals looking a certainty for smaller punters the over 3.5 goals in the match and the over 4.5 goals at 7/4 and 4/1 again with William Hills should be played.

Sergio Aguero returns for City after missing four games through suspension, which strengthens the goals claim and the Argentinian is 5.00 to score the opening goal on his return in a game where goals are expected the 2.10 on him to score at any time looks a nice play.