Category: Football

Leicester City v Middlesbrough: A Day For Defences

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

While Leicester City continued to buck the odds by topping Group G of the UEFA Champions League after a relatively comfortable 2-1 victory over Club Brugge on Tuesday, it’s fair to say that the Foxes have had to face something of a reality check in the Premier League this season.

Claudio Ranieri’s men have struggled to replicate their phenomenal title-winning form from the 2015/2016 campaign and currently sit just two points above the relegation zone in 14th place. A 2-1 defeat to Watford last time out did little to improve morale as Leicester became only the third reigning champions after Leeds United in 1992 and Blackburn Rovers in 1995 to start a season without a win in their first six away games.

Fortunately, the Foxes will be able to fall back on home comforts on Saturday as they face a Middlesbrough side who are one point and one place behind them in the Premier League table, but their erratic domestic form means a straightforward afternoon is far from guaranteed. In truth, there is little to separate the two sides in terms of results, with Boro edging it with five points from their last four games to Leicester’s four.

Foxes Failing To Fire

The worry for Leicester will be that while the two teams’ recent returns are comparable, the way in which those points have been accrued most certainly isn’t. Aitor Karanka’s men have shown incredible defensive resilience to secure hard-earned points at Arsenal and Manchester City while also derailing an in-form AFC Bournemouth at the Riverside, whereas Leicester lost their last Premier League home clash to West Brom.

Despite this fact, the bookmakers still have the reigning champions as favourites for the win against newly-promoted Middlesbrough, with Betfred and Betway both offering a best price of 10/11 on a home victory. The visitors, meanwhile, are out at 15/4 with Bet Victor and the draw is also available at 13/5 with Bet365; with both of these outcomes undoubtedly offering better value than the odds-on price on a Leicester win.

The main problem for the home side here is that while Boro has been busy making a name for themselves thanks to their dogged defending in recent weeks, Leicester is badly struggling for goals. Having been one of the driving forces behind their title push last season with 24 goals, Jamie Vardy has found the net twice so far and has now fallen behind slight injury doubt Islam Slimani in Coral’s first goalscorer market at 5/1.

Chances At A Premium

The Algerian, meanwhile, is rated at 9/2 with the same bookie and arguably represents more of a threat if he is passed fit; as does Leicester’s top scorer in all competitions this season, Riyad Mahrez, who comes in at 6/1 with Bet365 and also has penalty duties in his locker. Picking a marksman for the visitors is similarly problematic, with Middlesbrough being the league’s joint-lowest scorers alongside Hull City with 10 goals.

All this adds up to a game where defences are likely to be on top, and you can get a tasty-looking 7/2 on Boro keeping their fourth clean sheet of the season with Sky Bet. Similarly, Betfred is offering 12/5 on the match featuring fewer than 1.5 goals and – despite being odds-on at 4/5 – under 2.5 goals looks about as close to a certainty as you’re ever likely to find in the Premier League with the same online bookmaker.

Those wishing to take this defensive mindset a step further can find a generous 9/1 on the game finishing 0-0 with Sky Bet, while if you do fancy Leicester to snap their recent losing streak in the Premier League, your best bet is certainly to back the Foxes to win to nil with Bet Victor at vastly improved odds of 21/10.

Burnley vs Manchester City: Tough Turf for City

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Turf Moor has long been considered to be a graveyard for the top teams that play there. This tight little stadium with a small capacity almost looks out of place in the Premier League. Burnley have been defying the critics for some time. The fact of the matter is this. Everton and Liverpool have both lost at Turf Moor this season while Arsenal were lucky to scrape a 1-0 win.

Despite their recent away win at Crystal Palace, City still look like a team that is capable of conceding goals. They are still many peoples’ bet for the title. It is difficult to ponder the variables when it comes to predicting whether Guardiola will lift the title in his first season. City has the potential and they certainly have the manager with the right philosophy. The question is will that philosophy work in the Premier League? Then we might ask if it will work in time for City to be Champions this season?

Bookies Buy into the Guardiola Effect

The betting firms have certainly bought into the famous “Guardiola effect”. Manchester City are favourites again for the title but should they be? Chelsea have been champions more recently than City and they don’t have to worry about European football this season. Guardiola freely admits that he is still “learning” the nuances of the Premier League.

This means that the bookies will certainly have them too short when they face Burnley in the lunchtime kick-off on Saturday. William Hill has City at 2/7 to win. You can get odds of 5/1 with Stan James for the draw and 10/1 with BoyleSports for a Burnley win. The recent wins over Barcelona and the 4-0 win away to West Brom still haven’t convinced a lot of people that City have what it takes.

Buoyed by the Return of Toure

City have never really recovered since the loss of club captain Vincent Kompany. A succession of injuries is now looking to threaten his entire career. He went off injured again last weekend in the 2-1 win away to Crystal Palace. The plus side is the return of Yaya Toure. Guardiola claims he is back to full fitness and that is going to be a big boost for City. This is providing that Toure delivers and doesn’t drift in and out of games like he has done in recent seasons.

It is clear that City must start as favourites against Burnley but 2/7 favourites? Burnley have recorded consistent results this season. Their recent goalless draw at Old Trafford and the home win against Everton has left them with a respectable 14pts so far. The value bet seems to be the 5/1 for the draw. City are frail at the back and Turf Moor is a tough ground to visit….just ask Liverpool and Everton fans.

Arsenal v PSG: Can The Gunners Top Group A?

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Having already secured their progress to the knock-out stages of the UEFA Champions League for the 14th consecutive season, Wednesday’s clash between Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain represents something of a straight shoot-out for top spot in Group A and – potentially – a more favourable draw in the Round of 16.

The Gunners punched their ticket to next phase of the competition with a thrilling 3-2 comeback against Bulgarian champions Ludogorets Razgrad, with Mesut Ozil’s sublime winner ensuring the North London side maintained their unbeaten start to the group despite being 2-0 down within the opening 15 minutes.

The jubilant scenes among the away supporters were, however, tempered by news of Thomas Meunier’s 90th-minute strike handing PSG all three points away to Basel, with this late victory ensuring that the two teams go into this week’s fixture deadlocked on 10 points apiece, with Arsenal ahead on goal difference.

The French Connection

The last time the two teams met in Group A, Arsenal managed to salvage a point through Alexis Sanchez’s second-half goal, but the visitors were behind within a minute when Edinson Cavani’s glancing header sent the Paris faithful into raptures. The Gunners were run ragged in the opening exchanges and were indebted to the Uruguayan’s wayward finishing as they held on before striking late in the final quarter of the game.

With Arsene Wenger’s men benefiting from home advantage this time out, the bookies are predicting a far smoother ride at the Emirates, with Arsenal priced as 13/10 favourites with Betfair ahead of PSG at 12/5 with Sky Bet. The draw, meanwhile, is available at a best price of 9/4 from Unibet, indicating that despite their slightly more favourable odds, Wednesday night’s game should largely be an evenly-matched affair.

One statistic that does stand out, however, is the fact that Arsenal has conceded in each of their last three games in all competitions, with this making 138.com’s price of 10/13 on both teams finding the back of the net seem an easy way to make money. Should these odds not appeal, you can double both teams scoring with the result, with Betfair offering 7/5 on Arsenal emerging victorious and 9/2 on PSG doing the same.

Attack! Attack! Attack!

With both sides able to field a glittering array of attacking talent, it seems fairly safe to assume that the game is unlikely to finish goalless – and the current trends in this year’s competition indicate that there may be some value to be had when betting on the time that the first goal will be scored at the Emirates.

In the two games in which they’ve conceded in Group A, Arsenal has gone behind in both the 1st and 12th minutes, while in their remaining two games they’ve opened the scoring in the 7th and 12th minute against Basel and Ludogorets respectively. It is therefore somewhat surprising to see William Hill decide that a goal in the opening 1-15 minutes is an odds-against proposition at 21/10, with this offering some potential value.

Arsenal’s current run of three games without a clean sheet also makes it strange to see 1-0 to the home side being touted as the most likely scoreline by Coral and Boyle Sports at 15/2. Given what we already know about the Gunners’ defensive frailty in the competition this year, a 2-1 victory therefore, looks more appealing at 33/4 with 138.com, and you can also get 39/4 on the visitors winning by the same scoreline.

 

 

Goals Look Certain at Parkhead

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CELTIC face one of the toughest challenges in world football on Wednesday night when they host the mighty Barcelona at Parkhead in Champions League Group C.

The Scottish champions will need every one of the 61,000 passionate sell-out crowd to play their part in this one and become “The Bhoys” 12th man; it has worked before with them beating the five-times European champions in 2012, but this time around it’s very difficult to make any case for a shock win.

The two sides met at the Camp Nou in September and Celtic was very lucky to come away with just a 7-0 hammering. There is simply too much of a gulf between these two sides, something which is highlighted by the bookies’ odds for the game.

Barca are just 1.30 to bounce back to winning ways after their 3-1 defeat in their last Champions League match at Man City, and it’s impossible to look past them, but I personally couldn’t back them at those very short prices.

The Catalan giants were held to a goalless draw against Malaga on Sunday to let odds-on backers down, and with key players returning in Glasgow they should win this, but the weekend disappointments might still be fresh in some punters minds.

Celtic are a massive 12.00 with Bet365 for the win and even though they are running away with their domestic title again and held City to a 3-3 draw at Parkhead, they won’t be getting anything from this one.

The match prices look spot on offering very little value, and the best way to profit is to get with goals.

In Celtic’s four group C matches 17 goals have been scored, and it’s a similar story over in Barcelona with 18 goals featured in their four matches; over 2.5 goals looks the banker bet, but again it’s a very short price at the 1.50 with Coral. Over 3.5 goals in the game looks a better play for smaller punters at a more generous 2.25.

Despite Barcelona offering an incredible goal threat from all over the pitch but mainly from their front three of Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi, they are always vulnerable to concede, and both teams to score “yes” looks another nice bet at 1.91 with William Hills.

With goals expected and obviously an away win more than likely, instead of playing the 1.30 on a Barcelona win, it might pay to look at some nice correct-score bets. I like 3-1 and 4-1 for the visitors at 11.0 and 17.0 which pays 6.60 coupled.

UEFA Champions League: Will City Clinch a Knockout Place?

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Manchester City reached the semi-finals of the Champions League last season without Pep Guardiola. They will surely expect the same again with him at the helm. City currently lead Borussia Monchengladbach by 3pts going into their pivotal tie with the Germans at Borussia-Park. The odds heavily favour City despite this seemingly tough away fixture.

Poor Recent form Hampers Borussia

Borussia Monchengladbach has been in poor form of late. Recent league defeats in the Bundesliga against Hertha Berlin and more recently FC Cologne at home has left them struggling in the bottom half of the table. The Germans know that nothing short of a win against City will be good enough. That fact will surely play into City’s hands.

City, on the other hand, has just had a morale boosting league win. They have dropped valuable points recently in the league with several drawn games. The late winner that gave them a 2-1 win away to Crystal Palace on Saturday was badly needed. The big plus for Guardiola from that game was the presence of Yaya Toure.

Will Toure Play on Wednesday

There is no doubt that Yaya Toure is one of the best players in the Premier League when he is fully fit and on his “A” game. If Guardiola gets a fully fit Toure back into his squad playing regularly then it will seem like signing a new player. Toure hadn’t played since August before Saturday’s game at Palace. The look on Guardiola’s face at the final whistle was that of a man that knew Toure would make a big difference to their season.

City cannot afford any slip-ups on Wednesday. They will surely want to qualify for the knockout stage before they host Celtic in the final game. There is another factor at work too. City beat Barcelona 3-1 in their previous group game. That only puts them 2pts behind the Spaniards. So they will not want to miss out on a Barcelona slip up and not claim top spot in the group.

Qualification is Key

The big goal for City though is to qualify for the knockout stages. A defeat in Germany would put that in doubt. Bet365 are quoting City at 4/5 against Borussia which seems fair. Borussia is 16/5 and the draw is 11/4. Manchester City has the players to pick the Germans apart, who must surely press for the win.

Guardiola’s team dominated the Germans in the home leg and the gulf in class was obvious. It will be a huge result for Monchengladbach to get all three points from this tie. Realistically they are probably fighting Celtic for the third place spot and a Europa League place after Christmas.

The Germans will probably secure that anyway seeing as Celtic face Barcelona and then a trip to City in their remaining fixtures. It is worth repeating, though, that the return of Yaya Toure could be the pivotal point for Manchester City this season both in the league and in Europe.

Sporting Lisbon vs. Real Madrid: Will Injury Issues Hurt Real?

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Real Madrid might be firing on all cylinders in La Liga this season, but the Spanish side’s form in the Champions League has been far from vintage. With two wins and two draws, one of which was against bottom of Group E Legia Warsaw, Real Madrid are currently second in the table behind Dortmund.

Although Zinedine Zidane’s men have yet to taste defeat in La Liga or the Champions League this season, they’ve certainly been tested. In fact, the last time Real squared-off against Sporting Lisbon, the players found themselves on the back foot for much of the game.

Despite playing at home, the current champions were unable to find a break against Sporting in the first half and eventually fell behind within three minutes of the restart. Thanks to some solid forward pressure by the likes of Gelson Martins and Bas Dost, Sporting finally got their reward courtesy of Cesar.

Defensive Frailties Cost Real

A series of defensive blunders from Luka Modric and Sergio Ramos gave the visitors the break they’d been searching for and they didn’t waste their opportunity. Unfortunately, Real’s attacking prowess was always there in the background and, despite being under the cosh, two late strikes from Cristiano Ronaldo and Alvaro Morata stole a victory from the jaws of defeat.

Although the record books will show that Real Madrid won the match, the details certainly don’t reflect well on a side looking to defend its Champions League title. So why did Zidane’s men struggle? One thing’s for sure, it wasn’t for a lack of opportunities. According to the stats, Real had 15 shots during the game; 11 of which were inside the box. The problem, however, is that just three of those were on target.

That kind of strike-to-target ratio is simply not good enough in the Champions League. Indeed, when you consider that Sporting had seven shots on target and an accuracy rating of 66.7%, it’s easy to see how they almost nicked the game with a single goal.

Of course, all the blame doesn’t sit with the frontline. Sporting’s goal came as the result of a defensive error and, throughout the game, it didn’t look as though Ramos, Marcelo and Daniel Carvajal were working in unison. In fact, this defensive frailty was also evident during Real’s 3-3 draw with Legia Warsaw.

Odds Favour Madrid but Dynamics Could Help Sporting

This time around, the bookmakers aren’t predicting any major upsets. However, given the last match was so tight, this could be a mistake. Sun Bets currently has the home side as the 4/1 outsiders while Madrid is coming in at 3/5. Paddy Power’s team are equally pessimistic about Sporting’s chances with identical odds on a home win and 8/15 on the visitors taking all three points.

What appears to be missing from the analysis here is Real’s propensity to make mistakes at the back. While it’s true that Sporting have only managed four goals in four games, Jorge Jesus’ men have shown they’re capable of some tough forward pressure. Moreover, we already know that Cesar and Dost are more than capable of capitalising on defensive mistakes.

It’s also worth noting that Real will be heading into the match after what promises to be a tough derby game against Atletico Madrid. As is the case in any derby game, passion can often give rise to some crunching tackles and unexpected knocks. If that proves to be the case, Real could be in for a tough night on November 22.

With Morata diagnosed with a grade 2 muscle injury to his hamstring following international duty, Madrid can’t afford to lose any more players before their next Champions League match. Indeed, if Morata isn’t at full fitness, it could turn this match into a real slugfest. Although a Sporting win might be too much of a stretch, there could be some value in a draw. Coral is currently offering 3/1 on that result and, if Morata misses the game, there’s certainly a chance this could happen.

There’s Value in a Repeat

Of course, if you feel that Real will still have too much for Sporting and you want to get a little more specific, a score cast could be profitable. As we know, Madrid can score, but they can also concede. With this in mind, another 2-1 prediction in favour of the visitors could see you earn 7/1 on your stake at Coral.

On paper, this game should see Real Madrid clinch another three points. However, given the previous game and the current injury issues, things may not go to plan when the Spanish giants travel to Lisbon on November 22.