Category: Football

City To Run Riot At The Stadium Of Light

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PREMIER League basement boys Sunderland faces a very tough test on Sunday when they host Man City at the Stadium of Light, and I don’t give the Black Cats much hope of moving off the bottom of the table in this one.

David Moye’s has a massive job on his hands to keep this Sunderland side in the top flight and with injuries piling up and other teams around them getting results I am not surprised that they are just 1.14 for the drop.

The home side is in free-fall after just one win in their last 11 matches, and there looks little to no chance that they can pull off an 11.00 surprise win with Bet365 against a City side that arrives here in rampant form.

Pep Guardiola’s side has finally hit their stride and is still going strong in three tournaments; last week’s 5-3 Champions League win over Monaco was the best match of the season so far, and with 11 wins from their last 15 matches, they will get the job done again at the weekend.

The bookies, however, are taking no chances and rate the visitors just 1.30 to close the gap on leaders Chelsea with a win, which might interest you if you are a big staking punter, but even though I do anticipate another City success, I will just be including them in my Premier League accumulator.

City has now scored at least two goals in their last EIGHT matches and against a Sunderland that have failed to score in FIVE of their last six games that bring a couple of alternative ways to get with City.

In two of the last three meetings in this fixture, City has won by a 4-1 margin and another easy afternoon is expected. I would take the visitors to cover the -1.5 on the Asian handicap which is 1.81 with BetVictor.

Also in SEVEN of the last eight clashes between the two, over 2.5 goals has been a winning bet, and with City more than capable of doing that on their own, that also looks appealing at the general quotes of 1.45 with most bookies.

Sergio Aguero has capitalised on regaining his place in the starting line-up due to the injury to Gabriel Jesus, and the Argentinian who scored twice in the win against Monaco and four in his last three starts against Sunderland looks an outstanding bet to open the goal scoring again in this latest meeting at 3.50 with BetVictor.

Watford Look for Redemption in Mid-Table Clash

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Southampton, fresh from their EFL final loss to Man United last Sunday, travel to Watford for this mid-table clash.

Watford

After a turbulent run of form over the festive period, leading some to ask whether they might be dragged into the relegation dogfight, Watford are looking all but safe with 31 points, 9 points clear of the zone. Walter Mazzarri will be looking to capitalise on a light February schedule of only 3 games, and a run of fixtures against Southampton, Palace and Sunderland in March to pick up the points needed to put any question of relegation to bed for the season. The Italian will also want to make amends for last Saturday’s somewhat disappointing result against West Ham, having led from 3 minutes in and against ten men, they went on to concede a goal and the win in the last quarter of the match.

The big news for Watford is new signing Mauro Zarate picking up a cruciate ligament injury, putting him out of action until August. They will also be without first choice keeper Costel Pantilimon, Nordin Amrabat, Roberto Pereyra. Daryl Janmaat and Christian Kabasele are both in doubt.

Southampton

A terrific performance against United in the EFL final last weekend saw the Saints come within 5 minutes of extra time, having brought the game back from 2:0 down, with a goal unfairly ruled out, Southampton will be justifiably devastated with the outcome. They will have to put the result out of their heads and concentrate on recreating some of their great play from the final for the game against Watford.

Sitting a point behind Watford, Southampton are 8 points above the relegation zone in 13th place, but having dropped out of every other competition they will be able to focus everything they have on their league finish; 14 points is an all but impossible gap between them and Everton in the Europa League spots. The EFL fixture brought some confusion to the scheduling, but they will likely have to play Arsenal, Tottenham and United again in the next month or so. Picking up 3 points in this game would be important insulation going into a tough run.

Claude Puel has a few long term injuries to contend with, Matthew Targett, Charlie Austin and Virgil Van Dijk all scheduled to return next month. Jeremy Pied and Alex McCarthy are both lacking match fitness after long absences.

The value

Looking at the head to head stats, there doesn’t seem to be much between the two. The corresponding fixture in August at St Mary’s ended 1:1. Last season saw them draw 0:0 and Southampton win 2:0 at home. You would have to go back to 2008 to see Watford beat Southampton.

Overall, I would be somewhat wary of picking a winner in this game and am instead looking to the goal markets. The last 5 Southampton games have seen over 2.5 goals, and 4/5 of Watford’s last premier league home games have seen both teams score. Bet 365 have BTTS at 19/20, and Bet Victor have Over 2.5 at 13/10, both of which seem to be good value.

Liverpool v Arsenal: Fans Yearn for Return of Past Glories

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It is a huge match historically with the two teams involved having contested some truly memorable games over the years, not least on the opening day of this season when Liverpool shocked the Gunners with a thrilling 4-3 victory at Emirates Stadium.

Who could forget Michael Thomas’ incredible last gasp winner for Arsenal at Anfield to clinch the title on goal difference from Liverpool back in 1989? Or Michael Owen’s late double to win the FA Cup for the Reds back in 2001? How about Andrey Arshavin’s stunning individual four goal salvo in a thrilling 4-4 draw at Anfield back in 2009?

The teams have certainly created some wonderful memories for the fans in recent times, but this coming Saturday’s clash isn’t a battle for the title as it was on that breathtaking night back in May 1989. It is instead a battle for a top four finish, and even that isn’t guaranteed with both clubs facing stern competition from Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester’s City and United, not to mention title shoe-ins, Chelsea. Arsenal is currently as short as 8/11 with BetVictor to finish in the Champions League qualifying places, while Liverpool is longer odds at 11/10 to secure that all-important lucrative top four finish.

Title Dreams Must Wait Another Year At Least

It’s now 27 long years since Liverpool were last crowned champions of England. Reds supporters have had to watch in anguish as Sir Alex Ferguson’s United overhauled their English record of 18 titles before his retirement in 2013. Arsenal too has been suffering something of a title drought of late. Just ask their increasingly disgruntled fans, whose patience with long-serving manager Arsène Wenger is starting to wear thin.

While Liverpool supporters have had to get used to no longer being the kings of England and Europe they once were in the 70s and 80s and are undoubtedly concerned with their club’s tepid start to 2017, they are willing to give manager Jürgen Klopp time to build a squad to implement his ideas and tactics.

Arsenal’s last title triumph came back in 2004, courtesy of The Invincibles vintage. It has been an agonising wait for another title for the club’s supporters and one which shows little sign of ending soon. They have become used to hearing lines about paying off the stadium as excuses for not spending the big bucks and have grown tired of being labelled as happy with a top four finish and Champions League qualification.

Top Four The Only Target

Arsenal currently lies fourth in the table, 14 points adrift of leaders Chelsea, while Liverpool is a further place and point behind following their capitulation to reigning champions Leicester on Monday evening. Having played a match more than their North London opponents too, Saturday evening’s clash at Anfield is a must win for Klopp’s men and Boyle Sports price them at 23/20 to do just that. Arsenal meanwhile, who are almost certainly out of the Champions League following their crushing 5-1 first leg defeat at Bayern Munich, have only the FA Cup and a top-four position to play for. Bet365 among others quote them as long as 13/5 to inflict only a second home league defeat upon their hosts.

In the last eight league meetings between the two teams, 30 goals have been plundered while this season alone they have conceded 61 goals between them whilst burying 109 goals at the right end of the park. With both defences looking leaky, to say the least with an emphasis seemingly more on a ‘we’ll score more goals than you‘ philosophy, goals look assured this weekend and you can get a tempting 2/1 on there being over 3.5 match goals with William Hill.

The first goalscorer markets as always provide great profit possibilities with Sadio Mané, top goalscorer for the Reds with 11 and his Arsenal counterpart Alexis Sánchez, who has 17 goals to his name thus far, both a massive 6/1 with bookmakers including Ladbrokes and Coral to notch that all-important first goal.

Saturday evening’s match should provide great entertainment based on previous encounters between the two teams. It will also give a strong indication as to which of the two giants of English football will achieve a Champions League qualifying berth next season.

Can United Surge into the Top Four?

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Manchester United certainly seem to be picking up momentum. Their recent unbeaten run seems to prove that. While they could have played better in the EFL Cup final on Sunday, a trophy will certainly have boosted confidence at Old Trafford. Roy Keane has recently commented on how he feels United haven’t made progress from last season. This is clearly wrong and is probably biased based on his bitter departure from the club.

United look well placed to reach the top four. Liverpool is looking like a team low in confidence. Their 3-1 loss at Leicester opens the door for United to move above them. United are only 2pts behind Arsenal. Apart from Chelsea, it is clear that United are playing the best football in the league at the moment.

Bournemouth are in Trouble

United host Bournemouth on Saturday in what looks like an easy three points for the Reds. Eddie Howe has got a big job on his hands to try to arrest the slide that his team have suffered in recent weeks. Bournemouth is now only 4pts above the drop zone. Recent good results for the bottom clubs have closed the gap on them even more.

Bournemouth was very poor in their 6-3 thrashing at Everton. They are still awaiting their first win of 2017. The rot seemed to set in when they capitulated from a 3-0 lead at home to Arsenal to draw 3-3. That result came on the 3rd of January and they haven’t played well since.

These are clearly troubled times and Bournemouth badly needs to start winning soon. That is unlikely to happen as Jose Mourinho now has further trophies in his sight as well as getting into the top four. Ibrahimovic and Pogba are really starting to play well and United look like a really fluent team. It is going to take either a very good side or a very lucky side to beat United at the moment.

Finding the Best Value Bets

The basic fact is that United are highly likely to win this match. Bournemouth is woeful at the moment. The odds of 1-4 for a United victory from SkyBet don’t really fire the imagination. Neither does picking up a string of losing bets backing the draw or Bournemouth to cause an upset.

The value seems to be in finding alternate bets. BetFred is a best-priced 4-5 for United to be ahead at half time and full time. This is by far the best value of all the bets that are on offer. Jose Mourinho will expect and demand a reaction from their EFL Cup final win where United was mediocre for large periods of the game. That is likely to happen against Eddie Howes’ boys and expect United to start quickly and on the front foot.

Leicester Face Mané Troubles Ahead

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Just over a year ago, Jamie Vardy terrorised Liverpool and scored a true contender for goal of the season, in a 2-0 win for Leicester at the King Power Stadium. The incredible volleyed shot which flew past Simon Mignolet was just one of many manifestations of the miracle that was Leicester’s title-winning 2015/16 campaign.

Today, the situation could not be more different. Only a miracle of similar magnitude can now stop Leicester from becoming the first relegated champions since 1938. The odds of that particular event unfolding grow ever shorter, with 15/8 ( Paddy Power) now the best price.

Meanwhile, Liverpool Football Club is far from the meek outfit that finished eighth last term. For all their inexplicable inconsistencies, Jürgen Klopp’s men remain well on course for a top-four finish. They also boast what may be the most hell-raising attacking skills in the entire league – when in form.

A Foxic Mess

Eliminated from the F.A Cup by Millwall – and on current form, soon to be eliminated from the Champions League – the party has not only died but transmogrified into a wake. Even back in August, nobody expected much of Leicester, but the statistics are nothing short of appalling for Claudio Ranieri’s flailing Foxes.

In the last six league games, his Leicester charges have conceded no less than 12 goals. Worse yet, they have done so without once finding the back of the net in response. Where a standard 1X2 bet is concerned, the only worthwhile option for bettors is to delve into the handicap markets.

Given Leicester’s plight, all bookmakers have slashed the typical odds for a Liverpool handicap over bottom half opposition. Subsequently, Paddy Power is offering a market-best 9/2 on a Liverpool win, with a handicap of –2 against.

Sadio the Superstar to Enjoy Glut

Overall, this year has begun disastrously for the Reds by their own lofty standards. However, much of the recently-arrested winless run can be attributed to Sadio Mané’s international duties at AFCON 2017.

Liverpool’s most recent game, against fellow Champions League chasers Tottenham, is a case in hand. In his first Anfield start since returning from Gabon, Mané was in inspired form. Within the first eighteen minutes, he netted a double blast which demonstrated his lethal combination of pace and shooting prowess.

If Ranieri has conjured the courage to watch footage from that game, then many sleepless nights will have followed. On Monday, a red-hot Mané’s personal opponents are likely to be Marc Albrighton and Wilifred Ndidi. Bluntly put, the latter has proven to be a sorry excuse of a replacement for N’Golo Kante. However, Albrighton also bears much responsibility and remains badly out of form.

If backing Mané to be the first goalscorer on Monday night, bettors can enjoy odds of 5/1 across at most respected bookmakers. For those of a braver disposition, William Hill is also offering 8/1 on Mané to score two or more goals against a hapless Leicester side.

Riot running reds to begin strongly

Above all else, it was Liverpool’s transformed attitude from the first whistle, against Tottenham, which resonated most deeply in the last round of the Premier League.

If a usually well-drilled side like Tottenham can fold in such an alarming manner, then logic dictates that Leicester will do likewise. As such, Sky Bet’s specialist first-half market is currently offering tempting odds of 10/3 on Liverpool to score two or more goals in the opening 45 minutes.

Ultimately, it is only a question of how many the Reds will win by. The official Betcirca prediction for this match is Leicester 0-3 Liverpool, which is available at 12/1 with Bet 365.

Sunderland Simply Must Start Winning

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David Moyes is a man under pressure. Sunderland is rooted to the bottom of the Premier League with only thirteen games to go. The arrival of Moyes at the Stadium of Light was seen as a move that would bring solidity to Sunderland. The reality has been much different. A procession of near misses in recent seasons with regards to relegation has taken its toll.

Whether the blame is with Moyes or with the Sunderland board is unclear. It has been slightly surprising to see Moyes still in a job in February. The demand to stay in the Premier League has never been higher. A creditable goalless draw with Tottenham and a 4-0 thumping of Crystal Palace were deceiving.

Is Sunderland Good Enough?

This is a big question? They were humiliated at home to Southampton with most of their crowd leaving early. With several relegation candidates picking up points recently, Sunderland is clearly under pressure. If they don’t begin to pick up points soon, it is tough to see David Moyes surviving until the end of the season.

Sunderland travels to Everton in what appears to be a really challenging encounter. Everton is clearly the best team in the Premier League outside of the top six. Ronald Koeman has done a fantastic job of pulling them together. They work to a really solid system that suits them. What Sunderland need is a couple of easier fixtures. Goodison Park certainly isn’t on that list.

Can we Back Sunderland to win?

Sunderland is a best priced 13/2 with SkyBET but even at those odds, it is difficult to see them winning. Sunderland just looks so poor at the moment. Everton is currently 2/5 with William Hill and that is almost like buying money.

The Black Cats are still in the hunt for survival and are only two points adrift of the safety zone. It is this that has kept David Moyes in a job. If that gap increases to five points or more then we can expect the board to take action. Bet365 are a best priced 17/4 for the draw and that is a good bet too.

So the decision is whether to bet on the draw or the home win? The better option is the home win. Sunderland simply doesn’t appear to be capable of getting a result against a top seven side away from home. Their 0-0 draw with Tottenham was misleading. The look of despair on Moyes’ face during their display against Southampton said it all. That was the look of a man who knew his team are in trouble.