Category: Football

Arsenal vs. Burnley: Will Wenger’s Men Prove Too Strong?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

If you’re a Burnley fan, or just a canny punter looking for a bargain bet, you may be prepping yourself for a tough match on Sunday. Heading to Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium is never fun for any team, so when you’re a relatively small club like Burnley, this sort of fixture is always going to be tough.

However, just before you hold your hands up in despair, it’s worth noting that Burnley’s record against the Gunners isn’t that bad. In fact, since the two clubs first locked horns in 1896, Burnley has won 38 games, drawn 21 and lost 48. The optimistic among you will have already spotted that these stats mean Burnley have come away with at least a point on more occasions than they haven’t.

Recent Results Mean More than History as a Whole

Now, it’s fair to say that most of the positive results were recorded a few years ago (quite a few in some cases) and in recent times the Clarets haven’t fared as well. In fact, the last five meetings between the two clubs have all gone Arsenal’s way. With this being the case, the question for all betting bods then becomes: can Burnley roll back the clock and produce a vintage performance on January 22, or will Arsenal reconfirm their modern superiority?

Before we answer that question, let’s take a quick look at the outright betting markets. As it stands, Arsenal will start the game as favourites according to Sun Bets. With the home side a commanding 2/11 and the visitors way out of town at 12/1, the odds would suggest this match is only going to go one way. However, despite the betting markets not favouring the northern side, Sean Dyche’s men are far from pushovers.

Burnley Have Pushed the Top Dogs on Numerous Occasions

Yes, Turf Moor has been something of a fortress and provided the majority of Burnley’s best performances this season, but the club’s away form hasn’t been terrible. In fact, over the last five games, Burnley has only lost twice to Tottenham away (2-1) and Manchester City away (2-1). Narrow losses to two of the top sides in the country on their home patches are nothing to be ashamed of.

Of course, prior form against top competition on the road doesn’t necessarily mean Dyche and his men can do the same against Arsenal. But, if we’re going to put our necks on the line, at least one goal for Burnley isn’t out of the question. Now, stopping the likes of Ozil and Giroud from scoring two or more won’t be easy, but the least we can expect is Burnley to bring the pressure.

Odds Favour Arsenal but there’s Value in Burnley

From a betting perspective, Paddy Power’s 4/9 on over 2.5 goals isn’t a bad shout, but Joey Barton to score anytime at 13/2 with Coral looks to be the value bet of the day. With a goal against Southampton in the side’s last Premier League outing, Barton proved that he’s not quite done with top flight football just yet.

Yes, there was a deflection on the free-kick, but his effort in the middle of the park throughout the game was impressive (especially at 34-years-old) and that could earn him an opportunity at the Emirates. However, if we accept Barton to score anytime as a punt with some value, then a “banker” bet for this match looks something like Arsenal to win 2-1. Sun Bets currently has that result priced at 17/2, while the similar (and possibly more likely) 2-0 is 11/2.

Overall, it’s hard to see passed Arsenal in this one. With a 4-0 win last time out against Swansea, Arsene Wenger’s men are certainly fighting hard for second place this season. This sort of form, combined with previous results and a clear gap in quality, should see Arsenal secure a comfortable win. The question, on this occasion, is by how many goals.

Stoke City vs. Man United: Can Stoke Stall Mourinho’s Machine?

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This Saturday sees Man United travel to the Bet365 Stadium, hoping that a win against Stoke will keep the dream of 4th place within reach.

Mid table giants

There really aren’t any surprises when looking back across Stoke’s last 10 or so league games. We can sketch out a rough pattern of taking points against teams around or lower than them in the table and being beaten by teams in the top 4. They’ve racked up victories against Sunderland, Watford and Burnley, drew against Southampton and Leicester, and lost their games with Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal. Having performed well and taken the necessary point in targeted matches against mid-table rivals, Stoke can be forgiven for coming up short against the bigger clubs.

However, assuming this pattern of losing against the bigger clubs will continue through the game against United could prove dangerous, as the games they lost were all played away. If we take a look at the head to head stats, Stoke hasn’t lost to United at home since 2013 and has managed to take at least a point in three out of the last four meetings, including a grabbing a draw at Old Trafford in October. I expect a tight and organised performance from Stoke in this game. Playing from the back, frustrating their opponents and grabbing goals where they can, Mark Hughes will be quietly confident in his team’s ability to take a point, maybe more.

Want-away Bojan Krkic has a hip injury and is in doubt for Saturday, alongside longer term injuries to Butland, Walters, Cameron and Ireland.

Improving United

United has been going from strength to strength since their terrible start to the season. Their draw against Liverpool last Sunday ended a 6 game winning streak that had seen them steadily close the gap that had emerged between them and the pack at the top of the table. The game against their bitter rivals was hard fought, and Mourinho can be forgiven for being frustrated by not taking 3 points in a game that saw one of Liverpool’s best defensive displays of the season so far. Should they beat Stoke, United will leapfrog Man City into 5th spot, and with a fraught and fraying City entertaining an ever improving Spurs in the 17:30 Saturday fixture, they very well might be keeping it.

As mentioned earlier, United don’t have the best recent record playing at Stoke, but this is a very capable squad in some of the best form they have had in the past few seasons. Bouncing back from the game against Liverpool in time to pip Pep is a prospect Mourinho will relish.

With no first team injuries to contend with, Mourinho will be able to pick freely from a fit squad. He will certainly be hoping for an improved performance from Paul Pogba, who has been heavily criticised for a poor display last weekend, particularly in defence. I expect United to dominate possessions and chances, constantly probing for weakness, and should they find any, it will come down to whether they can capitalise.

The value

My instinct here would be to back Under 2.5 goals (at 17/20 on Bet365). The bookies are giving this a very slight nod over Over 2.5. Only one out of the last 6 Stoke home games have finished with more than 2.5 goals and considering they will likely have their backs against the wall, I really don’t see a goal fest here. Man United Win & Under 2.5 at 13/5 is good value, as a 0:1 or 0:2 result seems fairly likely. If you fancy Stoke to get a result, William Hill has Double Chance Stoke or Draw at 11/10.

Can Liverpool End 27 Years of Pain?

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It was 1990 when Liverpool last tasted success by winning the league title. They have won numerous cups since then, including the Champions League, but haven’t won the league title. Their loyal fans have had to sit back and watch close rivals Manchester United override their previous record of 18 titles. Liverpool came agonisingly close several years ago under Brendan Rodgers but ultimately fell short. Jurgen Klopp is making their fans believe again and Liverpool has put in some stellar performances this season.

Chelsea is firm favourite to land the title and currently have a seven point lead over Liverpool and Tottenham. It is looking increasingly likely that both Manchester clubs have too much to do to overhaul Chelsea. Liverpool seems to be the best-placed team to catch the Blues should they suffer a blip.

Will Greed Costa Chelsea the Title?

This is why they will be keeping a close eye on events at Stamford Bridge and the saga surrounding Diego Costa. Chelsea has been heavily dependent on Costa and Hazard this season for their goals. If Diego Costa ultimately decides to go to China for a reported thirty million per season then Chelsea may struggle to score enough goals without him. Liverpool host Swansea City on Saturday in what is a must-win game for the Reds.

If they are ultimately to go on and win the title under Jurgen Klopp then these are certainly games where they need to pick up all three points. Swansea has struggled badly this season and has changed their manager again with Paul Clement now taking charge.

Swansea Simply Lack Quality

The fact of the matter is that Swansea City is not bottom of the Premium League for nothing. With just seventeen games of the season to go, they are going to struggle to survive the drop. They may be only one point from safety but they appear to lack quality. Opposing teams don’t fear them anymore. The one shining light for Swansea for their trip to Anfield is that Liverpool has hit inconsistent form since Christmas.

Liverpool is a best-priced 1-4 with Stan James and Coral but there is certainly no value in taking those odds. Stan James and Coral also go 11-2 on the draw while Swansea is a best-priced 14-1 with Bet365. Big odds always seem appealing but not at the risk of them taking too long to win. One bet that may appeal is the 19-20 from Bet365 for both teams to score.

There are three factors which point to this being a good bet. Firstly, as the home team, Liverpool is expected to score! Swansea needs to start picking up points very soon, and finally, Liverpool has been inconsistent of late. If Swansea City finds the net at Anfield then this bet looks a sure winner at almost even money.

The Bookies Have Got it Wrong at the Etihad

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IT’S a huge match at the Etihad this weekend involving faltering giants Manchester City and fast improving Tottenham Hotspur.

This is as big as it gets for both sides as defeat for the home side would virtually see them unthinkably out of the title race in January, and a win for Spurs will see them as major title contenders if they aren’t already.

On the evidence of what we’ve seen in recent weeks, I am staggered by the prices on offer with the bookies.

City was dreadful in last weeks 4-0 hammering at Goodison Park at the hands of Everton, a defeat which was the biggest ever handed to manager Pep Guardiola, and I just can’t fathom why they are just 2.20 to bounce back with a win at the weekend.

Questionable Guardiola Moves vs. Pochettino’s Young Guns

Guardiola, despite his glowing CV, really hasn’t got to grips with the Premier League at all and his decision to dump England goalkeeper Joe Hart out of the Etihad in favour of Claudio Bravo looks more and more bizarre each and every week.

The former Barcelona and Bayern Munich manager looks a shadow of the suave and confident coach that rocked into Manchester in the summer, and I believe he’s got big problems making the Champions League, yet alone win the title.

Mauricio Pochettino is for me the best coach in the Premier League and his young Tottenham side are getting better and better each week and why they are 3.60 to win this match with Bet365 is anyone’s guess.

The Londoners are in superb form and scoring goals for fun having won their last SEVEN matches and scoring 21 goals in the process; with them also boasting a rock-solid defence, they are crying out to be backed at the prices on offer to add more misery to Pep.

Previous Form

When the two met in October the Spurs came out comfortable winners 2-0, which was only the second time in the last 11 matches between the two where over 2.5 goals wasn’t a winner. With so much at stake, especially for the home side, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score look good at 1.75 and 1.62 respectively.

It’s no surprise that Tottenham’s form has been on the up since the return of England international Harry Kane from injury, and after a hat-trick last week the Hurri-Kane is a good bet at 6.00 with Paddy Power to upstage Sergio Aguero in the goal scoring race with the opener in a match that promises goals.

Man United vs. Liverpool: Will United Make a Comeback?

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Man United vs. Liverpool is a proverbial titans clash, and one of the most hotly contested derby matches in world football looks set to be another screamer on January 15. Heading into the match, Liverpool is certainly the form team. However, despite four places separating them in the Premier League, the gulf between the two teams might not be as wide as some would think.

In overall terms, Liverpool is currently outpacing their Premier League rivals with 44 points to 39. Now, as any football aficionado will tell you, a six-point gap after 20 games might as well be 60 points when you’re fighting for the title. With the top teams barely losing more than a handful of games each season, hoping to secure two wins while your closest rival slips twice are almost futile.

Of course, overcoming a six-point gap is not impossible, it’s just improbable. Just how improbable? Well, according to Sun Bets experts, the chances of United overtaking Liverpool and the rest of the top five is 16/1. In contrast, Jurgen Klopp’s men are currently the 9/2 second-favourites for the title behind Chelsea (3/4).

It’s Closer than You Think

So, if United’s chances of closing the gap are just improbable and not impossible, it also stands to reason that they have a chance of winning on Sunday. Before we break down the best bets, let’s take a quick look at the numbers. Yes, Liverpool has opened up a sizeable points gap. But, when you look at the individual numbers, United isn’t that far off the pace.

Liverpool’s 13 wins aren’t drastically better than United’s 11. Similarly, United’s three losses are only one more than Liverpool’s two. In fact, when we look at goals against, United actually have the upper hand with 19 against vs. 23 against. OK, so what does this tell us? Well, the first thing to note is that things aren’t as bad at United as people may have first assumed.

Thanks to an unfortunate combination of past achievements, current expectations and sensationalist media coverage, United’s drop in form over the last season or so has been characterised as disastrous. While it’s fair to say it’s a far cry from the Ferguson glory days, it’s also true that it’s not a disaster.

In fact, if we accept this fact and remove our emotions from the situation, it quickly becomes clear that United has a chance in this match. Moreover, when we factor in that this match will take place at Old Trafford, it seems any initial assumptions that this will be a comfortable win for Liverpool seem to fade away.

Odds Favour United

If nothing else, Man United vs. Liverpool will be a close, competitive match. In fact, the bookmakers seem to agree. Despite the Premier League table, recent form and fan fever suggesting Liverpool is primed to clinch the latest derby match, the odds tell a different story. For those wanting the best outright price in the current conditions, William Hill is offering 11/4 on Liverpool and 23/20 on United.

A tenner on the former at that price would return you £37.50, while the same on the latter would give you £21.50. Of course, with the gap between the two teams being tighter than many would assume, a draw could also be on the cards this weekend. Coral’s odds makers are offering 9/4 on a stalemate, as is William Hill. For a touch more value, Sun Bets will give you 23/10 on a draw, which means £10 could be worth £33.

Look for the Sensational Comeback

However, with this match promising to deliver on all fronts, it seems wise to look beyond the outrights and towards some specifics. Both teams to score at 3/4 with Sun Bets looks a strong, if not fairly uninspiring shout.

For our money, though, United to win from behind looks a tasty proposition. There’s no doubt Liverpool is going to travel to Manchester with the bit between their teeth. Recent form and Premier League superiority will allow Klopp’s men to come out firing, and if likes of Firmino can start strong, an early goal is a distinct possibility.

However, with United on a run of five wins and the home crowd backing them, a comeback will always be likely. Yes, it could end in a draw, but with odds of 10/1 on United coming from behind to win, it seems that it’s worth taking a punt on the more outlandish outcome.

Whatever the result, Man United vs. Liverpool will be another high-octane match. But, if you’re looking for a cheeky punt, a few quid on United to steal the show should give you a few more reasons to smile come the final whistle.

City Facing Massive Test of Title Credentials at Goodison

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Manchester City will travel to Goodison Park to face Everton on Sunday afternoon intent on maintaining their title challenge in the wake of Chelsea’s 2-0 loss to Tottenham in their last Premier League fixture.

The league leaders defeat at White Hart Lane ended a run of 13 straight league victories and reopened the door for the likes of City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United in their quest to challenge for the title. City is currently still available at 7/1 with Coral to claim a fifth league title in Pep Guardiola’s maiden season in charge.

City aiming to reduce seven-point deficit

With fourth-placed City still trailing Chelsea by seven points, Guardiola will be desperate for his team to take all three points back to Manchester. Toffees boss Ronald Koeman, meanwhile, will hope his players can sustain the club’s challenge for a top six finish and possible European football next season with a win to better the 1-1 draw they achieved in Manchester back in October.

City will go into the match without midfielder Fernandinho who received his marching orders for the second time this season in City’s hard-fought 2-1 victory over Burnley at the Etihad last time out. Ilkay Gundogan is the only other player likely to miss out for City while Everton will have to make do without injured duo Maarten Stekelenburg and summer signing Yannick Bolasie.

No easy task for Guardiola’s men

Guardiola’s men lost 1-0 to title rivals Liverpool on their last trip to Merseyside on New Year’s Eve, their third defeat on the road this season, while Everton boasts an impressive home record with just a solitary defeat, also to neighbours Liverpool to blot their copybook.

The hosts’ good home form and City’s seven victories on the road suggest this will be a close encounter. Last weekend saw Everton exit the FA Cup at the first hurdle following defeat to Champions Leicester while City made a huge statement of intent hammering West Ham 5-0 in East London to progress to the next round of the famous old cup.

On the back of these results, the bookmakers seem less agreeable to Everton’s chances of denting City’s title charge and place them at a very generous 10/3 to claim the win with bet365 amongst others. The visitors, on the other hand, are priced as short as 4/5 with the same bookmaker to escape Merseyside with all three points.

Goals fest on the cards?

Everton has notched 15 goals in their 10 home league matches so far this season, while City has scored an impressive 22 goals in just 10 matches away from home thus far. With City’s defence looking far from comfortable protecting Claudio Bravo’s goal, however, the odds of both teams scoring is a modest 8/13 with Ladbrokes which suggests the bookies are anticipating goals.

Big money returns could be yielded from a punt on who gets that all important first goal. Everton’s main man Romelu Lukaku and City’s forward sensation Sergio Aguero have both helped themselves to 11 goals in the league so far, which makes odds from Skybet of 11/2 for the Belgian and 3/1 for the Argentine to open the scoring on Sunday extremely tempting.