Category: Golf

Ryder Cup Preview and Predictions

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Ryder Cup Preview

With no Tour golf to focus on the golfing World shifts its attention to the three day masterpiece that is The Ryder Cup.  The 2014 addition will be held at Gleneagles in Scotland, with many pundits asking whether the Americans can win their first Ryder Cup since 2008.  The answer to that question is, much like the result of the recent Scottish referendum on independence, likely to be ‘no’.

The Americans simply do not play good team golf. Phil Mickelson is an exceptional golfer but his Ryder Cup record is a poor 14 wins from 38 matches. Tiger’s record is similarly average – he’s won 13 of 33.  On the other hand the Europeans thrive in the pressure cooker.  Ian Poulter is the perfect example of passion.  His Ryder Cup record is impeccable – never having lost a point a singles match (12 wins and three losses in total).

Let’s look at both of The Ryder Cup teams:

Team USA

Captained by Tom Watson the team features a nice mix of Ryder Cup veterans (Mickelson, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson) and up and coming youngsters.  The youngsters in this group who have featured prominently in majors and tour golf this year may well provide the impetus the dour Americans desperately need.  Keegan Bradley, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth, and Rickie Fowler are all under 30 and should have the requisite enthusiasm based on their solid years and the fact that most of them have played recent golf in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

The one positive of the US side is that without home advantage viewers won’t have to put up with the aggressive chants of USA after every shot.

Team Europe

Paul McGinley leads a European team that is littered with top 20 golfers.  Rory McIlroy who is rightly the first player mentioned when it comes to discussing the European team is joined by Garcia, Stenson, Rose and Kaymer.  All of whom have played some exceptional golf at times this year.  Add to the mix Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood, and Rookie of the year nominee Victor Dubuisson and the European team will again be hard to topple.

On paper the Europeans look to have the advantage.  They ooze confidence and have historically found a way to use the home advantage and momentum to their benefit.

Predictions

Bet365 are offering a number of options on this weeks play.  Here’s where I would be focusing my attention.

Top Debutant – Debutants don’t always see a lot of action and Jordan Spieth is attracting the bulk of the money, but I wouldn’t look past Victor Dubuisson (9/2).  Three top 10s in the Match Play Championship, The Open and The PGA highlights his incredible season.

Top Combined Points Scorer – Picking one player from 24 when they’re effectively the best players in the World this year is no easy feat. Poulter’s record is incredible.  Rory is in fine form and has been driving the ball beautifully.  Furyk and Kuchar are incredibly solid and would make highly sought after teammates. Interesting I’m picking Sergio (8/1).  Although short odds, Sergio’s team record is strong he just plays singles poorly.  I’m backing him to turn it around.

Correct Points Score – Like predicting how many women Shane Warne has bedded, but lets’ try Europe to win the Ryder Cup 15-13 (15/2).

The Tour Championship and PGA Tour Review

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The culmination to the PGA Tour season is always a confusing affair. With all the talk about bubbles and projected standings it can get a little tricky working out whether your favourite player has the opportunity to win the coveted FedEx Cup, not to mention if they’ll even make it through to the next event.

Luckily, with Billy Horschel’s win in the season ending Tour Championship we don’t need to worry anymore. Instead we can look forward to the passion and prestige of the Ryder Cup, set to begin at Gleneagles on the 23rd of September.

But before we start predicting whether the USA can prevent a Europe three peat, let’s take a look at the Tour Championship and review the 2013-14 PGA Tour season. 

The Tour Championship 

Held at Eastlake in Georgia the final event of the season is played by only the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings and comes with an excellent purse of $8 million. (The FedEx Cup too comes with a $10 million bonus.)

The Eastlake course was the home of the legendary golfer Bobby Jones, and while none of the current field have reached his lofty heights (seven majors), two players playing pretty great golf of late were locked in a gripping final round battle.

Coming in to the final event at number 2 and number 4 in the FedEx Cup standings, Billy Horschel and Rory McIlroy could both get their hands on the FedEx Cup with a win. Paired together for the final day the two were expected to buck the trend of 4th round conservatism. However, with only Jim Furyk (and he hasn’t had a win since 2010) offering any real challenge the two could play match play of sorts – winner takes all. Rory’s challenged was effectively over on the sixth when he found water and when Horschel signed for a 12th consecutive round in the 60’s the double was his.

It was, on reflection, a wonderful achievement from a guy who started the playoffs in 69th position and before today was best known for being a bit of a hot head. Today’s win makes him a good pick for next year’s events and a sleeper for the majors.

The PGA Tour Season

It’s admittedly hard to think back to October 2013 when the season started, not because of too many gold rum and cokes, simply because of the sheer number of tournaments and the musical chair winner’s circle that the PGA Tour entails. Having said that there were some players and some moments that stood out.

Jimmy Walker dominated the early stages thanks to thee wins (at the Frys.com Open, the Sony Open, and the AT&T at Pebble Beach) and sat in pole position for the post-season events. Bubba Watson won twice including his second Masters title. Lots of Aussies enjoyed wins (Adam Scott, John Senden, Matt Jones, Jason Day, Steven Bowditch, Geoff Ogilvy, and as a nation they won the World Cup of Golf). Tiger spent most of season on the operating title, and Rory dominated every golf story in the latter part of the season, both for his golf and for the abrupt halt to his engagement.

Outside of the golf, Dustin Johnson had his ‘issues’. Adam Scott got married in secret and broke the hearts of a host of female fans. McIlroy’s dad, Gerry, got in on the action too by netting a huge payout from a ten-year-old bet, predicting his son would win an Open Championship.

Looking ahead to 2014-15 here are a few predictions:

  • Tiger won’t win a major. Rickie Fowler will.
  • Anthony Kim (remember him) will return to the game. But will be terrible.
  • More pros will throw away their anchored putters in preparation for the 2016 ban.

US PGA Championship 2014 Preview

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Jim Furyk did us proud at the British Open with a healthy each-way return at odds of 70-1. Dustin Johnson was also in the firing line at 40-1 until fading on the final day so what can we conjure up for this week’s US PGA Championship.

The 96th US PGA takes place at the dramatically named Valhalla with many scribes already prepared to hand a second major of the season to Rory McIlroy. Spain’s Sergio Garcia must be sick of the sight of McIlroy having been runner-up to him in the past two events. I am never keen on backing golfers at single figure prices unless it is a matchplay event so we must look elsewhere for some value.

A whole host of big names played well at The Bridgestone Invitational including Keegan Bradley (T4th), Justin Rose (T4th) and Rickie Fowler. Other significant contributions came from Graeme McDowell, Ryan Moore and Mark Leishman while Phil Mickelson (62) and Lee Westwood (63) ended the tournament in style.

The PGA has often produced an unexpected winner but Keegan Bradley hardly fits into that category these days. He won this event in 2011 and has since finished third and nineteenth. He has also produced good efforts at this year’s US Open and made the top twenty at the British Open.

The American challenge is likely to be strong with Furyk (top twenty in last four majors) and Fowler (top twenty in last three majors) also capable of featuring strongly this week. Unfortunately the bookmakers agree and they are both at much shorter odds than they were for Royal Liverpool. Furyk led by one going into the final round last year but was beaten by Jason Dufner. We could worse than invest some of our Open winnings at 40-1.

Lee Westwood has been poor this season and he has missed the cut in the last two majors. I cannot quite be convinced by a single round of 63. Instead, I am going to put up Graeme McDowell who has been in the top 15 in three of the last five PGA championships. He also played well last week and looks better each-way value.

Adam Scott could easily regain the world number one spot this week but that is reflected in his price and I’d sooner take a chance on his countryman Marc Leishman. He finished third at Bridgestone following a fine fifth place at the British Open and should give us a run for our money.

Keegan Bradley @33-1 Boylesports

Graeme McDowell @40-1 BetVictor

Jim Furyk @40-1 888Sport

Marc Leishman @50-1 Bet365

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5

British Open 2014 Preview

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Tiger Woods returns to action for the British Open at Royal Liverpool but gone are the days when he was automatic favourite. Those who have faith in the American’s powers of recovery can get 25-1 about him making a sensational comeback this week.

Despite positive vibes from the player, the fact remains that he has not won a major since 2008. It is surely going to take longer than even (in which he missed the cut) to recover his game after back surgery.

This time last year, Phil Mickelson’s supporters were happily playing up their winnings from the Scottish Open. He was only a peripheral figure there this time around despite a closing 65 and his overall form does not suggest another British Open triumph for “Lefty”. My tip for top American is Dustin Johnson who seems to have the knack of putting in a solid effort in this tournament every year.

In the last four seasons he has finished fourteenth, second, nine and thirty-second. OK, that last performance doesn’t take your breath away but he obviously does his research and does not just turn up expecting a flat calm day. He may even have won in 2011 but for a double-bogey at the 14th hole, allowing Darren Clarke to go on and win.

German sport is on the up after their World Cup success. Martin Kaymer turned the US Open into the most boring major tournament in living memory, such was his dominance. I’m not expecting him to do that at Royal Liverpool but 25-1 looks a good each-way price.

The best of the Australian challenge will surely come from Adam Scott. Two years ago he should have won this event comfortably but collapsed dramatically to hand the Claret Jug to Ernie Els. I think there was an element of embarrassment for the big South African in accepting the trophy. To Scott’s credit he came out and won the US Masters the following spring and is now one of the leading players in the world. He has made the top ten of three of the last six majors.

Jim Furyk who frequently pops up on the leaderboard at major championships, although he has only ever converted once. 70-1 will do for an each-way bet while you can get more than double that about Joost Luiten if you fancy a real long shot. After Holland’s heartbreak in the penalty shoot-out, let’s hope Luiten does not need to endure a play-off!

Adam Scott @16-1 Bet365

Martin Kaymer @25-1 Ladbrokes

Dustin Johnson @40-1 William Hill

Jim Furyk @70-1 BetVictor

Joost Luiten @150-1 888Sport, Unibet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5

 

US Masters 2014 Preview

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The 78th US Masters kicks off the majors’ season in the world of golf at Augusta National this week. There is no Tiger Woods as the American is awaiting surgery on his injured back so Phil Mickelson has the opportunity to draw level with his fourth green jacket.

“Lefty” has not been at his best so far this season and I’ve always managed to catch him at the wrong time in the past. He is a brilliant player when he is in the zone but odds of 14-1 aren’t enough to tempt me. Keep an eye on him though as he may play moderately for a couple of rounds but still mount a late challenge.

Lots of people fancy Jason Day this week but he has also suffered an interrupted preparation. He was testing his peculiar brain theories in this event 12 months ago. I have no idea whether he still employs the same system but whatever he did last year worked wonders. In the end it was Australian Adam Scott who emerged victorious, gaining quick compensation for his collapse at the British Open.

Scott does not look far off his best and prepares himself for the majors rather like a racehorse geared to the biggest races. He can start off our portfolio at 12-1. The US PGA Tour has been throwing up its fair share of shock winners and I’m going to put up Harris English as a long shot. He’s been making his way steadily up the rankings and made a hole-in-one at the 12th in practice this week! How he would love to do that in the tournament proper.

Patrick Reed and Jimmy Walker are others likely to appear on the leaderboard during the week along with Jordan Spieth who appears utterly fearless. With English available at 66-1 and Spieth at 55-1, they are worth a flutter to make the top six. Five of the last six major championships have been won by golfers who had not previously won a major.

Amazingly, Sergio Garcia still comes into that category. He has an unbelievable 18 top ten finishes in majors including three times here, his best being fourth in 2004. He’s certainly playing well enough but the bookmakers aren’t taking too many chances at 20-1.

Henrik Stenson could win his first major this year after a sensational 2013 on both sides of the pond. Understandably he has struggled to pick up the pace so far this season but you wouldn’t want to rule him out. My final selection is going to be Zach Johnson who won here back in 2007. He also had a brilliant season last time and is ticking over nicely ahead of the first major of the season.

Zach Johnson at 35-1 Paddy Power

Adam Scott at 12-1 Paddy Power

Harris English at 66-1 Bet Victor

Jordan Spieth at 55-1 William Hill

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5,6

US PGA Championship Preview

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The US PGA Championship is not only the last major of the season; it is also last in terms of importance. A major is a major and that’s not to decry any golfer who has won it in the past. I’m sure that Lee Westwood or Luke Donald would happily put their name to it right now! The Masters has its own special brand of golf on the manicured greens with the flowery backdrop, the British Open is the oldest and best and the Americans are entitled to their own US Open…but the PGA?

If I were to ask anyone but a complete golfing anorak who won the PGA in 2002 and 2009 I very much doubt many of you would know? The answers are Rich Beem and YE Yang. Enough said.

Of course, such scepticism carries little weight with the bookmakers who have all the usual suspects priced up at the top of the market. Tiger Woods is entrenched in his role as automatic favourite and is even shorter after strolling around Firestone at the weekend. Phil Mickelson is second favourite after scooping the Scottish and British Opens on a profitable little stopover in the UK. By the way, his tax bill was a cool £900,000 for that weekend alone!

I have already previewed the event in some depth at golfbettingtip.com and have selected five against the field. With the bookies paying ¼ the odds down to sixth place and Woods very short at 4-1 there could still be some each-way value in the long shots.

The last winner at this year’s venue of Oak Hill was Shaun Micheel in 2003. He was 169th in the rankings at the time. That victory elevated him into the top 50 but where is he ten years on? Well, think of a number and double it…337! With that in mind, I’m going to have a bit of fun with some long shots and hope that one of them can sneak into the frame.

First up is last year’ Open champion Ernie Els. He didn’t do too badly defending his title but 26th place never really raised any hopes of victory. The reason he is worth a flutter here is that he finished 5th at Oak Hill in 2003 so he knows better than most what to expect this week. He is surely overpriced at 90-1.

My second choice is AT & T winner Bill Haas. He played well at Firestone last week to finish tied for seventh place. His form is slightly erratic with a mixture of top ten finishes and missed cuts but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see his name on the leaderboard at some stage.

My third selection is less of a long shot having put together a sequence of tied 2nd, tied 6th (Open) and tied 4th. Zach Johnson had his moments at Muirfield and is clearly in fine form. He is playing like one of the top six golfers in the world and 55-1 is surely on the generous side.

Finally, Australian Jason Day has yet to win this year but has hauled in $2.7million! Nice work if you can get it! At the Masters he was trying some kind of weird brain gadget but I’m not sure what his state of mind is at the moment. If he’s tuned it into the most valuable tournaments of the year he’s not doing a bad job.

Ernie Els 90-1 Paddy Power, 112-1 Betfair
Bill Haas 66-1 Paddy Power
Zach Johnson 55-1 Youwin
Jason Day 50-1 Paddy Power, 55-1 Betfair