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Sha Tin Preview 3rd May

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

HONG KONG RACING SUNDAY 3 May 1915

SHA TIN

The Champions Mile

Yet another sensation days racing at Sha Tin with the feature race being The Champions Mile. Certainly void of runners but it has been billed as the best miller in the world at current standings in “Able Friend” who has rose to an amazing ranking this season. Should be the one to beat once again as his form over this distance and up to 2000m is outstanding. However he comes up against the very talented “Luger” who won the Hong Kong Derby in very good fashion so he does have what you would expect to be a good test on his hands today. I do expect both going on the performances today will be racing in the UK when all the Group racing begins so it really is worth getting involved here and at least watching just how this race pans out. The last three races on the card also look very solid class races and will prove to be every entertaining. Have a great day and above all enjoy the card at Sha Tin.

 

Track and Conditions: Turf A+3 course and the track will be rated as good.

Expected Weather: Sunny Intervals with a few showers and a top temperature of 30 degrees so it will be on the humid side. Wind will be from the south to southwest at around the 20Km/h mark so there will be a slight tailwind down the straight which will only slightly assist closers but it should be a fairly even playing ground just the same.

 

Best Bet: Race 10 No 11 Lucky Year

Best Value: Race 11 No 4 Dashing Fellow

Best Exotic Races: Race No’s 9-10-11

Quaddie:-

Race 7: 1-3 Race 8: 1-10-3-6 Race 9: 11-1 Race 10: 3-4-5-10

 

Race 1: — Time: 4.30am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Griffin Race

Top Pick: No 3 Highland Hammers

Value Selection: No 6 Happy Chappy

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Super Dragon and No 2 Eastern Express

 

Race Overview

 

Highland Hammer stuck on well behind Happy Chappy last start over the 1000m.Both have trained on very well since that first start. They meet again today over the extra ground and both have widish gates but it is a small field. He should be improved by that first up run and I expect there should not be too much between the top four here. Happy Chappy recorded a very nice win first up from a draw which was wide so he appears to have a bit of talent. Goes over the extra ground today and comes up with another wide draw in gate 9 but looks to be a nice type and can go well once again in a small field.

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 9 Jun Hao

Value Selection: No 1 Best Jade Triumph

Exotic Inclusions: No 4 On The Way and No Fantasticlife

 

Race Overview

 

Jun Hao certainly looks close to a win going on his current performances this season. He has never been far away and ran a very nice close up 3rd last start over this distance. Always has good hoops in the saddle and today is no exception with Douglas Whyte back in the saddle. Retains the same weight as he has been carrying all season and comes up with the rails draw so he should get a nice trail in the running. Best Jade Triumph always seems to go well at this class and distance and since dropping back in class this time he has gone close on all occasions. No real difference in the weights today. Comes up with a nice draw and should be well placed in the running and he also retains the master of the weave in Brett Prebble in the saddle.

 

 

Race 3: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 1 Spitfire

Value Selection: No 10 Never Better

Exotic Inclusions: No 12 Peace Combination and No 8 Distinct Commander

 

Race Overview

 

Spitfire has never been far away recently since dropping back to this class and has not been over this distance since class three when he found it a bit much but at his class and from a very nice draw in gate 11 with Douglas Whyte in the saddle he has to come under strong consideration here. Never Better just the two starts in Hong Kong and does appear to be improving. Drops a touch in weight and comes up with a nice draw in gate 12 which is close in over this course. Retains regular hoop and would not have to improve too much to be a bit of a hope here in a fairly open race.

 

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 2 Happy Agility

Value Selection: No 9 Thewisardofoz

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Regency Darling and No 11 Fun Tapestry / No 13 Bernard’s Choice

 

Race Overview

 

Happy Agility just the one start in Hong Kong and won well on that occasion with a very nice on paced performance over this distance at this class an d as a result goes up in the weights but does still look ok as he carries 127Lbs first up and has to be a consideration today going on his last start. Drawn wide today but has the speed to offset that. Retains Zac Purton in the saddle and goes in as another good chance today. Thewizardofoz is currently at just on or around each way but by start time may be favourite with Joao Moreira in the saddle despite drawing gate 14. His trials have been excellent and if drawn in closer he would certainly be hard to beat on those results. However he has good natural speed and should be able to cross into a forward position just the same. On trial form he looks a very nice type.

 

Race 5: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 5 Joyful Moments

Value Selection: No 4 Young Ranger

Exotic Inclusions: No 12 Sparkling Sword and No 2 Asia Rising

 

Race Overview

 

Open affair here if you take out Joyful Moments who does look the form way to go here. Just the three starts in Hong Kong but all have been good being placed 2nd at his last two starts and his last run was over this distance at Sha Tin from a similar draw. He gets Joao Moreira in the saddle today which will most likely keep his odds under’s so if you fancy him I would be getting in early. Young Ranger dropped back to this class recently and ran a nice race last start over the 1400m when he went to the line well in running 3rd only 1/2 of a length from the winner. Has trained on well and looks a bit of a chance with Zac Purton in the saddle. Only query is the wide gate and the slow pace but Zac will most likely look to get across early and he does look to have the pace to do just that.  Sparkling Sword has not been very far away since going up to this class recently and with what is expected to be a slow paced race should lead and may very well run a cheeky race at nice odds here.

 

Race 6: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 10 Bear Pop

Value Selection: No 4 Winner St Paul

Exotic Inclusions: No 11 Master Viking and No 3 Jolly Spring / No 8 Unique Awesome.

 

Race Overview

 

Bear Pop was getting home well last start until being held up in the straight and gives the impression that he may be ready to put in a good race looking at that effort as he was only 1 3/4 of a length away in the wash up. Should be at nice each way odds and can run well against this field despite the wide gate. Winner St Paul just the five starts in Hong Kong and he has been consistent and continues to improve. Comes up with a nice gate today and Zac Purton jumps back on board for the first time since his first start which was a failure at Happy Valley when he ran all over the place. But has shown good form since which has all been at Sha Tin. Looks close to breaking through.

 

Race 7: — Time: 7.35am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 9 Charity Kingdom

Value Selection: No 3 Horse Of Fortune

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Red Dancer and No 7 Cheeky Too / No 1 Good Choice.

 

Race Overview

 

Charity Kingdom has been very consistent over the 1400m at his last three starts at this class and has been closing well on all those occasions. Goes up to the 1600m today and certainly looks like he will appreciate the extra ground today. Retains Zac Purton in the saddle and stays at a nice weight which will certainly help. Solid chance. Horse Of Fortune just the four starts in Hong Kong and the last two were over the Happy Valley mile where he put in decent efforts on both occasions. Comes up with a nice draw today and should once again enjoy a nice run just behind the speed near the rails. Does come across as a decent each way chance today.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.05am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Group One

Top Pick: No 1 Able Friend

Value Selection: No 3 Luger

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Dan Excel and No 4 Rewarding Hero

 

Race Overview

 

Only a six horse field but it is all class. Able Friend is certainly the star performer of the season in Hong Kong but I wasn’t completely taken by his last start performance even though he won well but it may have been due to the transition up and down to the 1400m then back to the mile. Did not seem to possess the same very quick turn of foot as he has shown previously but he is without doubt a class act and will be hard to keep out here. Is at the peak of his career and is without doubt a sensational race horse that deserves to have a crack at richer races in the UK. But he will not have it all his own way as Luger has gone from strength to strength since a few set backs earlier this season and has really shown his class. If all had gone well early this season I really did expect he would have gone to Dubai. He should be somewhere near the lead running into the straight and should be the one to run down however Dan Excel who has taken a bit of time to get going in his preparations looks to have been set for this as well and ran a very nice on paced 4th last start over this distance at HKG2 and may very well ensure a decent pace which will play into the hands of the other runners who like to finish hard with the exception of Secret Sham who may try to pinch the race if it is a slower pace than expected. Great race despite the small field and tactics will play a big part.

 

Race 9: — Time: 8.40pm GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 2

Top Pick: 1 Not Listenin’ Tome

Value Selection: No 10 Dane Patrol

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Looks Like A Cat and No 6 Jet wings

 

Race Overview

 

Good quality class two sprint here. Not Listenin’ Tome just the one start in Hong Kong and that was over this distance at HKG3 when he ran a very nice on paced race from a draw which was no help what so ever. Gomes up with a much better draw today in gate 11 which is much closer to the grandstand rail. Gets a big hit up in the weights today but he also has a senior hoop in the saddle in Douglas Whyte. Would like to see him over a bit more ground but just the same may have the class to go close here. Dane Patrol is a very under rated runner and has proven that this season with a very honest score card after winning on two occasions and placed in another two and never far away in his other starts. Has very good gate speed and will be in this for a long way.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.15pm GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3

Top Pick: No: 11 Lucky Year

Value Selection: No 1 Strathmore

Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Spicy Sure and No 8 Lucky Day / No 2 Righteous

 

                                                         Race Overview

                                                                       

Now this is a very solid Class Three and it is very very competitive but the way Lucky Year won at his first start in Hong Kong he certainly has to be the one to run down here. Up in class today but will trot around with just 115lbs on his back in retaining his last start hoop and a small claim. Comes up with another great draw in gate 2 and should get a very nice run in transit once again. Strathmore won well last start and going on his lead up form prior to that win he has to go in with another very good chance once again today. Certainly been hit hard with the weights but if he carries it he has to go close from a gun gate and Tommy Berry in the saddle. Weight the only issue here. Spicy Sure only the one run in Hong Kong but it was a very pleasing effort running second to Strathmore on that occasion and even though he was well beaten in the wash up there was a lot to like about that run. Comes up with another nice draw today in gate five and should be well placed in the running as a result of that. Overseas form indicates that he should go well at this class.

 

Race 11: — Time: 9.50pm GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 3

Top Pick: No: 3 Sky Hero

Value Selection: No 4 Dashing Fellow

Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Secret Command and No 10 Forever Accurate

 

                                                         Race Overview

                                                                       

Sky Hero only the four races in Hong Kong and all have been very good. Went up to this class and gave them a canning all be it with a light weight. Been hit up in the weights as a result of that run but does appear to have talent and should progress beyond this class if he continues to improve as he has been. Dashing Fellow has been on song all season as well and won well last start at this class and even though up in the weights as a result of that win he has to come under consideration on form alone.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Newmarket Sunday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Gleneagles (4-1) and Goldream (5-1) gave us a profit on the first day of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket. It is the fillies turn to take centre stage on Sunday with the 1000 Guineas, the Pretty Polly Stakes and the Dahlia Stakes.

Our regular readers will be hoping that Local Time gives us a good run having been tipped at 40-1 in the ante-post lists. She is a lot shorter than that now and should not mind the quicker ground judged by her action on dirt. The race does not look particularly strong, especially with O’Brien having taken out both Found and Together Forever.

There are a couple of almost impossible handicaps on the card starting with the 1.50. Lungarno Palace did us a favour at the recent Epsom meeting while Watersmeet has looked a much improved performer on the all-weather. Arab Dawn has attracted market support and looks the sort to develop into a decent handicapper this season, although you could make a case for a dozen of these.

Andre Fabre went close in the 2000 Guineas with Territories and sends over Fintry for the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes. It is interesting to see Clive Brittain’s Rizeena kept in training while Bragging looked a progressive filly last season for Sir Michael Stoute.

A sharp pin may be as good as anything in the sprint at 3.00 but I’m going to give Zanetto another try. He has looked very useful on occasions and was tried at Group 1 level by Andrew Balding last summer. I’m a bit worried by the draw after the way the Guineas panned out and Huntsmans Close could be worth a saver on this side of the track.

The Pretty Polly Stakes has produced the last two Oaks winners in Talent and Taghrooda. There certainly does not seem to be anything of that quality entered on Sunday. It isn’t that often that Dermot Weld sends one over so presumably Zannda will handle the quicker surface and could step up on her Leopardstown form.

The closing handicap is another puzzler with Muqtaser representing the Dissolution form from the Craven meeting. The first six home that day could have been covered with a large horse blanket so the form may be suspect. Her Majesty The Queen’s Mustard seemed to hang fire last time out so I’m going for Godolphin’s Global Force. He made all to win his maiden in good style and could be tough to peg back.

Arab Dawn 1.50 @12-1 Ladbrokes

Fintry 2.25 @2-1 Bet365

Huntsmans Close 3.00 @12-1 Bet365

Zanetto 3.00 @16-1 Coral

Local Time 3.40 @40-1* ante-post (now 16-1 generally)

Zannda 4.50 @3-1 Coral

Global Force 5.25 @9-2 Coral

Kentucky Derby Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Kentucky Derby is probably the most eagerly awaited race of the season in the United States. The first leg of the American Triple Crown could see a new star emerge and it is Bob Baffert who holds the aces with both first and second favourite.

American Pharoah was made hot favourite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last season only to miss the race through injury. He was an impressive winner of the Grade 1 FrontRunner Stakes in September and the third horse, Texas Red, went on to take the glory at Santa Anita.

He reappeared at Oaklawn in March and swept to an easy six and a quarter length victory followed by an effortless win in the Arkansas Derby. His stable companion Dortmund is an enormous colt by Big Brown and is unbeaten after six races. He got the better of Firing Line by a head in December and repeated the performance in the Grade 3 Robert Lewis Stakes. He made all to win by four and a quarter lengths last time in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and it will be interesting to see how he handles this big field.

Todd Pletcher runs three here with Breeders’ Cup runner-up Carpe Diem looking the most likely. He has won both of his races this season impressively, winning the Blue Grass Stakes by three lengths last time out. Stable companion Materiality is unbeaten after three races and showed good form to beat Upstart in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Firing Line won the Group 3 Sunland Derby last time out, a thoroughly deserved success after two fine tussles with the mighty Dortmund. He is priced at 12-1 under Gary Stevens while Baffert’s horse is around 7-2 so there could be some each-way value there.

Backing Meydan form here is something of a risk but Mick de Kock’s Mubtaahij could also be worth supporting at decent odds. The son of Dubawi was unlucky to be beaten in the UAE 2000 Guineas but made no mistake last time when bolting clear in the UAE Derby to win by eight lengths. Christophe Soumillon takes the ride on him.

This looks a really competitive renewal and there is bound to be a furious pace. The draw could be a concern for American Pharoah’s supporters but he looks a straight-forward ride and is the one to beat.

Tips

American Pharoah @3-1 Paddy Power

Mubtaahij @12-1 Ladbrokes (each-way)

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Newmarket Saturday Preview

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Last week we previewed the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and came down on the side of Gleneagles at 9-4. Surprisingly, Aidan O’Brien’s colt can be backed at 7-2 with Paddy Power on the eve of the first classic of the 2015 season.

Highland Reel has been diverted to the French Guineas having drifted to 50-1 on Betfair prior to the announcement from Ballydoyle. Stable companion Ol Man River has come from nowhere to be third favourite at around 6-1. We shall keep faith with the proven two-year-old form of Gleneagles and hope that the market moves are wide of the mark.

There is also a fine supporting card and Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore can get favourite backers off to a good start with Top Tug. He is very lightly raced and matches the profile of previous winners of this race for the powerful Newmarket yard.

The Palace House Sprint does not look particularly strong this year and it may be worth taking a chance on Goldream to successfully step up in class. He was tough and consistent last season for Robert Cowell who is an expert with sprinters. There is a very disappointing turnout for the Jockey Club Cup with Telescope facing only three rivals.

He is top class on his day, as he showed when running away with the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. He won’t be at his peak for his seasonal debut and Pether’s Moon is the one most likely to give him a race on Saturday.

Henry Candy was a relieved man when Limato came out and won at Ascot in midweek. He sends out another potentially top class sprinter in the 4.20 with the unbeaten Twilight Son. He won both of his races as a two-year-old, including a victory over Desert Force. Richard Hannon’s horse came out and won well at Newbury but now finds himself 11lbs worse off with Twilight Son. Candy’s charge only just got up to win at Thirsk but was trapped at the back of the field with two furlongs to run and did well to make up the ground.

Azmaam was very unlucky at the Craven meeting and can reverse form with Rocky Rider in the 4.55 while Godolphin’s Greatest Journey looks the value bet in the closing race. He was only just denied by Cape Clear Island last time and could be even more effective over this two furlongs shorter trip.

Top Tug 2.00 @9-2 William Hill

Goldream 2.30 @6-1 Betfred

Telescope 3.05 @4-7 Stan James

Gleneagles 3.45 @7-2 Paddy Power

Twilight Son 4.20 @13-8 Betfair

Azmaam 4.55 @7-2 Paddy Power

Greatest Journey 5.30 @6-1 Paddy Power

Punchestown Festival – Friday Preview

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There are two Grade 1 races on Friday at Punchestown and Willie Mullins looks set to win them both. He saddles the Cheltenham first and second in the Champion Hurdle and has four entries in the Champion Novice event.

Mullins has dominated the Grade 1 races all week and opposition to his star hurdlers has dried up here. There are only two rivals to Faugheen and Arctic Fire and both look well out of the depth. Faugheen only had a length and a half to spare over his stable companion at Cheltenham but had the race won a long way from the finish.

Ruby Walsh is one of the finest judges of pace in the jockeys’ room and he made sure that the Champion Hurdle did not turn into a crawl. Arctic Fire was held up in the rear and ran on past beaten horses to finish second. That was a fine effort and he looked set to go one better at Aintree when taking a crashing fall at the last flight. Fortunately, both he and Walsh escaped relatively unscathed. Walsh will once again look to dictate matters here with Paul Townend presumably trying to keep closer tabs on the favourite. The outcome will probably be the same as at the festival.

Mullins and Walsh then team up for Nichols Canyon in a much more competitive Champion Novice Hurdle. The former John Gosden inmate is one of four Mullins-trained runners here, although he looks much the best on form.

He was classy enough to finish second in a Group 3 on the flat and his only defeats over hurdles can be excused. He unseated his rider at Leopardstown in December and refused to settle when finishing third at Cheltenham. He was always cantering over his rivals at Aintree before easing to a four and a half length win over Parlour Games. That shows that his Cheltenham form was all wrong and he is the one to beat on Friday.

The pick of his stable companions may be Outlander who was well beaten when runner-up to Shaneshill at Fairyhouse. He had previously finished sixth at Cheltenham and has ground to make up on Nichols Canyon on that evidence. Sempre Medici was a creditable sixth in the County Hurdle before winning Grade 2 at Fairyhouse over two miles. He is unproven over this trip while Alpha Des Obeaux could emerge as the biggest danger.

The Mouse Morris-trained gelding was second to Supreme Hurdle winner Douvan here in January and looked booked for the runner-up spot at Aintree when falling at the last. Thistlecrack went on to win the race and finished a close second here earlier in the week.

Nichols Canyon @10-11 Skybet

Punchestown Festival – Thursday Preview

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Willie Mullins has dominated the Grade 1 races at the Punchestown Festival this week and he will be hoping to continue the trend on Thursday.

He has three runners in the World Series Hurdle at 5.30 led by former Champion hurdler Hurricane Fly. The gelding has been a phenomenon over two miles and has won 26 of his 40 races. At the age of eleven, he battled on to finish third to his stable companion Faugheen at Cheltenham and his appetite for racing seems as strong as ever.

It is a bold move by Mullins to try the eleven-year-old at this three-mile trip for the first time. He has won over two and a half miles but that was way back in 2010 so this really is a step into the unknown.

Last year’s Champion hurdler Jezki relinquished his crown this season but bounced back to win at Aintree. That was over two and a half miles, although he may well have finished second but for the last flight tumble of Arctic Fire. Mark Walsh takes over in the saddle to replace the retired Tony McCoy and the gelding has not always been the easiest horse to settle.

With the market leaders not guaranteed to stay, the value bet could be Tony Martin’s Dedigout. He has won his last three races at Gowran Park, Navan and Fairyhouse and will not be found wanting for stamina. He would certainly appreciate a shower of rain but is worth supporting at the early 7-1 on offer with Paddy Power.

The star of the show on Thursday is undoubtedly Un De Sceaux who was a most impressive winner of the Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham. He would still be unbeaten but for a fall at Thurles and he has hardly put a foot wrong since. He had six lengths to spare over God’s Own at Prestbury Park and is already a hot favourite for next season’s Champion Chase.

Official ratings give him upwards of 18lbs in hand of his rivals on Thursday and, given a clear round, he should chalk up another Grade 1 success. The best bet on the card at Redcar has to be Godolphin’s Bow And Arrow who won by a staggering 13 lengths at Thirsk last week. He turns out quickly under a 6lbs penalty and is certain to go up considerably more once he has been re-assessed.

Dedigout 5.30 Punchestown @7-1 Paddy Power

Bow And Arrow 3.25 Redcar @4-5 Betfair