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HONG KONG RACING SATURDAY 21 February

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

Awesome Group racing last Sunday and what a finish in the G1 sprint when Gold-Fun got up in a very close go from Aerovelocity and Lucky Nine with Peniaphobia finishing a nice 4th. If you followed the selections we hit a very nice 1st 4 and depending which bookie you are with it paid over $5000.00. Nice. J. Keep tuned for more group racing as it is just around the corner in Hong Kong where we have sensational racing every week and it is punter friendly so just stick with the form guide and enjoy. The last four races do look good today if having a go and enjoy the excitement of Hong Kong racing.

Track and Conditions: Turf A+3 Course which will be rated as Good.

Expected Weather: Cloudy throughout the day with a few rain patches and mist. Top temperature of 20 Degrees. The wind will be from the east to south east up to 40 Km/h early but abating slightly to around the 30 Km/h mark as the day progresses. This may very well for the first time this season assist closers with a bit of a tail wind down the straight. But being partly a cross wind the conditions should make for a fairly good playing ground.

 

Best Bet: Race 8 No 2 Divine Calling

Best Value: Race 7 No 10 Ensuring

Exotic Races: Race No’s 7-8-9-10-11

Quaddie:-

Race 8: 2-4-5-3 Race 9: 1-5-10-3-9 Race 10: 2-14 Race 11: 12-13-14-1

 

Race 1: — Time: 4.30am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 5 Chin Chun

Value Selection: No 3 Peace Combination

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Unique Joyful and No 1 Wild Boy / No 8 Naughty Baby

Race Overview

Chin Chun goes around for the first time today and all three trials leading into this have been very good. Was scratched last October when was expected to begin his Hong Kong racing and was found to have a blood abnormality. Is very well breed and is expected to go beyond this class before too long. Can make a decent impact on debut.  Peace Combination just the two starts in Hong Kong and certainly showed improvement last start when he was just nosed out over the 1000m at Sha Tin . Up a touch in the weights but does look like he will be well suited over the extra ground today even from gate ten. Unique Joyful has not had the best of luck recently but does get a good chance today after coming up with another very nice draw in gate three. Can be a bit of a handful early on in his races but if he gets away ok does look to be value here as well.

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 2 Kids And Win

Selection: No 1 Enchanting Diamond

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Goldweiver and No 7 King Tai Sing

Race Overview

Kids And Win looks to have appreciated the drop back in class recently and came out with a nice win last start and as a result gets a nice rev up in the weights but he does get a 2 Lb claim as well and he does his retain his last start winning hoop. Ordinary Class Five though. Enchanting Diamond has done all his racing in Hong Kong at class four and dropped back to class five last start for the first time and in doing so carried top weight of 133lbs. Was only beaten by one length on that occasion and certainly showed improvement. Gets in with the same weight today but will need a bit of luck from a wide gate. However there should be enough pace to give him that chance today.

 

Race 3: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 4 Bear Rapper

Value Selection: No 5 Thor The Greatest

Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Fun Tapestry and No 2 How Speedy

Bear Rapper has never been very far away in all his races since arriving in Hong Kong and closed off very well from a wide gate last start and was not very far away in the wash up at all. Comes up with a nice draw today in gate four and I expect this will certainly help. Interesting to see a bit of hoop swapping going on here with Joao Moreira off Thor The Greatest and onto Bear Rapper and Brett Prebble off Bear Rapper and onto Thor The Greatest as they both certainly have appeal here although. Thor The Greatest has drawn wide but he has been very consistent this season. He will most likely try to cross early and if he gets in with cover he certainly has to come under consideration as well.

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 1600 —Class 4

Top Pick: No 11 Unicorn

Value Selection: No 2 D’Or Wongchoy

Exotic Inclusions: No 4 Heartwood and No 1 Fighting Boy / No 9 Grand Champion

Race Overview

Not a good form race here and I would be treading lightly in this one. Unicorn has only had the four starts in Hong Hong Kong and all have been over lesser distances than today. Gives the impression that he will certainly be well suited over the Sha Tin mile and although drawn wide he has Zac Purton in the saddle. If he steps up in distance as expected will go close here. D’Or  Wongchoy  Is dropping back to this class today for only the second time since arriving in Hong Kong. The last time he did so he won over this distance with a very similar weight. Will need a bit of luck in the running but should be able to get cover and if so is expected to be closing off well here as Heartwood should ensure a decent pace up front and has not been lucky enough to come up with a decent draw until today as he does come up with gate five here which will only suit his running style. Still looks weighted ok as he does get a nice seven Lb weight drop with his allowance which will see him trot around with 121Lbs on his back today. There is a possibility that he could very well sneak away with this if the pace up from is not too solid.

 

Race 5: — Time: 6.35am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 4 Presidentparamount

Value Selection: No 12 Unique Happiest

Exotic Inclusions: No 6 Mofit and No 10 Ah Bo

Race Overview

Presidentparamount Only the four starts in Hong Kong and broke through for a nice win last start after stepping up to this distance for the first time. Closed off well on that occasion and retains Zac Purton in the saddle. Should get a nice trail in the running and is expected to go well once again today even with a bit of a weight rise. Unique Happiest did look to have a bit of a rough run last start and could have finished much closer but by the same token it was a very good run behind our top selection today. Would not have to find too much more to give this a decent shake all be it from gate twelve. Retains the master of the weive in Brett Prebble in the saddle as well.  Mofit has only had the four starts in Hong Kong and has certainly looked and performed much better when he went up to this distance. Drawn wide but has run very well from that gate previously and does retain his last start hoop.

 

Race 6: — Time: 7.05am GMT—Distance: 1200m —Class 3

Top Pick: No 10 Righteous

Value Selection: No 4 King Of Mangolia

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Shining Champion and No 1 Our Folks

Race Overview

Righteous Just the two starts in Hong Kong and he has won both which were over this distance at Sha Tin. Goes up to Class three today and as a result gets a very nice weight drop of 13 Lbs. Drawn well in gate four and retains Zac Purton in the saddle. Certainly has appeal as a winning chance here. King Of Mongolia has only had the one start in Hong Kong and that was over this distance at this class. Ran a fairly good on paced race on that occasion and should be further improved by that outing and he does come up with a very nice draw today in gate 2.

 

Race 7: — Time: 7.35am GMT—Distance: 2000m—Class- Three

Top Pick: No 2 Lucky Omens

Value Selection: No 10 Ensuring

Exotic Inclusions: No 4 Ambitious Champion and No 6 Industrialist Way / No 13 Rock The Tree

Race Overview

Lucky Omens has always performed so much better over this distance even though it is just the extra 200m on what he has run over when he dropped back in distance. Has won on two occasions over this distance and been placed on other occasions. However he has been hit with a decent weight rise as a result of those runs and does look weighted at his best today. Should be value on that form. Ensuring just the four starts in Hong Kong and has been working up in distance all the time. Worked home very well over the 1800m last start indicating that he may very well be ready for the extra ground over the 2000m today. Looks well weighted and is still  currently at each way odds which is appealing in a very open race. Rock The Tree does look like a bit of an outside chance here and can get into the finish with a bit of luck. Recently went back up to Class three after a couple of very nice performances at Class four all be it one was at Happy Valley. Should get a reasonable trail in the running and will trot around with 115Lbs on his back after the claim. May very well be nice value here and goes in as my BOLTER of the day.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.05am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 1

Top Pick: No 2 Divine Calling

Value Selection: No 4 Kabayan

Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Gurus Dream and No 3 Super Lifeline

Race Overview

Divine Calling does look like a very nice type and won first up in Hong Kong over this distance. Then put in a very nice effort over the mile at class 1 and repeated that form with another good performance at HKG1 over the same distance. Gets a bit of a touch up in the weights but by the same token he should handle it at this class. Does look a good chance in  a fairly competitive race. Kabayan has only had three starts at this class so far and if you look at the results and the weights he has been carrying it does appear that he should go very close today. He did go close last start over this distance at this class and only has two Lbs extra today which should see him perform well in a small field.

 

Race 9: — Time: 8.40am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class – 2

Top Pick: No 1 Teofilo Calva

Value Selection: No 5 I’m In Charge

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Golden Deer and No 3 Bear Hero / No 9 Supreme Falcon

Race Overview

Another nice sprint race here. Teofilo Calva has only had the three starts in Hong Kong but all have been very good and does look a very good chance here even from a wide draw in gate eleven. Went close last start from a similar draw with the same weight  and retains Joeo Moreira in the saddle and has to be a very good chance today. I’m In Charge does look placed well here and has came up with a decent draw as well. Is back in class with a weight that still suites as well and has the master of the weive in Brett Prebble in the saddle. Expected to be over’s today and may very well be a bit of value here.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.15pm GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 2 Travel First

Value Selection: No 14 Soul Achiever

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Good Good View and No 8 Brilliant Dream

                                                         Race Overview         

Travel First Has only had the three runs in Hong Kong and all have been at this class and all have been good and been right on the job and never very far away. Has won over a similar distance in the UK prior to arrival in Hong Kong and does not have to improve too much to give this a real shake. Comes up with a nice draw in gate two and will most likely go to the front here. If he gets a soft run he will certainly be the one to run down despite being well weighted. Soul Achiever just the four starts in Hong Kong and does look to have certain potential as he has won two of those starts this season and one was over this distance all be it at class four. But he did go very close last start at this class after closing off from a long way back. Will most likely do the same today from gate ten but also drops an extra 2 Lbs and retains Joao Moreira in the saddle as well. Does look to have the ability to run very well today with this weight.

 

Race 11: — Time: 9.50pm GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 12 Super Talent

Value Selection: No 13 Dashing Fellow

Exotic Inclusions: No 14 Up And Coming and No 1 Big Four

 

                                                         Race Overview

Super Talent has produced some nice performances in Hong Kong since arriving here all be it at lesser class races but did however go up to this class last start and closed off extremely well .Drawn well today in gate 6 and has Douglas Whyte back in the saddle as well. Does look well weighted here and you would expect he will be in the finish at some point here. Dashing Fellow goes up to class three today after performing very consistent at class four and deserves a chance here. As a result he does drop 12 Lbs after his last start win which was over this distance. Joao Moreira has stuck with him which is a good sign and you would expect another very good performance today.      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Grand National 2015 ante-post update

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The weights were announced on Tuesday for the Aintree Grand National and there were no real surprises. As expected, Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Lord Windermere (11st 12lb) is at the top of the handicap alongside recent Irish Hennessy winner Carlingford Lough. Both horses are on target for the festival and I don’t expect either of them to line up at Liverpool.

Many Clouds is next on 11st 9lb and his participation will also depend on what happens at next month’s festival. Paul Nicholls is quite keen on the chances of Unioniste (11st 6lb) but he could end up shouldering top weight and really needs soft ground to show his best.

After Tony McCoy announced that he will be retiring at the end of the season, I highlighted the prospect of Shutthefrontdoor being the gamble of the race. Jonjo O’Neill’s Irish National winner was 20-1 at the time and has now been slashed to half those odds. If you did not get on early, I would not rush out to take the current odds.

Our other ante-post selections were Spring Heeled and Monbeg Dude (both tipped at 33-1). The former is likely to return to action this weekend at either Fairyhouse or Kempton. Connections have been avoiding running him so as to protect his handicap mark and he has been allocated 10st 12lb at Aintree. That looks a perfect racing weight and Jim Culloty will be happy to see him jump round safely in third or fourth this weekend.

I was not at all dismayed to see Monbeg Dude well beaten in the Haydock Grand National Trial on Saturday. He ran in the same race two years ago and came from another county to sneak into the frame. He is 2lbs better off than last year when finishing seventh in the big race and will know more about those big fences this time. Although his best form is on soft, it is not essential and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking any 33-1 that remains about him.

Pineau De Re and Balthazar King are back again after filling the first two places last year. The winner is up 8lbs but you’d have to expect that. I think that everything fell into place for him last season after that eye-catching run over hurdles at the festival. He will need to show something at the meeting again this year to warrant support.

Our Ante-post Portfolio;

Shutthefrontdoor @20-1 William Hill

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power

Sha Tin Racing Sunday 15th February Tips

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

Yet another exciting days racing in Hong Kong with not one but two Group One races today. The first over the sprint distance of 1200m in Race Seven and it does look to be a ripper of a race with the new and upper coming stars against the ones that do have the runs on the board. Peniaphobia just got up for us last start all be it dropping back to the 1000m from a draw which did not really suit. Back to a much more suitable distance today and will be getting home hard here. Does however look to have a fair few challengers against him today including Aerovelocity.

Gold – Fun is the interesting runner who is going over the sprint distance for the first time today but may very well be suited but will certainly know more after today’s race. Exceptional race with the likes of Smart Volatility and Lucky Nine in the field. It certainly looks like a very special sprint race.

Then we move on to the Hong Kong Classic Cup in race Nine which also looks to be a very special Group Race with a heap of very talented runners involved. Beauty Only is established and looks a very good chance and we also have the new and upper coming runners which include Redkirk Warrior-Giant Treasure and Contentment which do make it to be a very exciting race.

It does look like a great meet to get involved in and certainly have some fun with very good fields and the potential for nice exotics. Enjoy the day and enjoy what Sha Tin has to offer which is always a great day’s racing.

 

Track and Conditions: Turf – A- Course with the exception of races 3-5-8 which will be on the All Weather Dirt Track. Track will be rated Good to Firm on the turf and Fast on the AWT.

Expected Weather: Mainly cloudy with a top temperature of 17 degrees. Wind will be from the east to northeast gusting up to 30 to 40 Km/h so it will create a head wind down the straight which will favour on paced runners however closers will get their chance as well if making ground down the back straight. 

 

Best Bet: Race 5 No 3 Got Fly

Best Value: Race 10 No 2 Luger

Exotic Races: Race No’s 5-6-7-8-9

Quaddie:-

Race 7: 5-1-2-9-4 Race 8: 4-2-7 Race 9: 1-9-2-10 Race 10: 4-2-12-7

 

Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 5

Top Pick: No 4 Follow The Wind

Value Selection: No 5 Colourful Profit

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Jun Ju and No 3 Cool Pal

Race Overview

Very ordinary class five to begin the day here. Follow The Wind looks to have slightly better form than most and has not been too far away since dropping back to this class this season. Bit of an in between runner who has moved between lower class races with good results previously. May very well be a bit of a chance here once again as he does retain Douglas Whyte in the saddle. Colourful Profit may be a bit of an outside chance here if we get the right odds. His last two runs have not been good but having said that one was on the AWT and the other at Happy Valley . At his first run after dropping back to this class three starts back he ran very well at Sha Tin with Joao Moreira in the saddle. He has Joao back today and comes up with the gun draw in gate 1 and should be given every chance.

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1800m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 5 Sergeant Titanium

Selection: No 2 Percy Jackson

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Wealthy Fortune and No 1 Ambassadorship

Another race where we have to go over all runners as the form is a bit all over the place but let’s have a look at Sergeant Titanium who finally bounced into form last start with a nice on paced effort over the 1600m last start. Will most likely be ridden on the pace once again from a nice draw in gate 6 and Joao Moreira stays with him as well. May certainly pay to follow here.Percy Jackson is dropped back to this class for the first time last start and it did appear to make a decent impact. On that occasion he ran a very nice closing race from a mid field position so it does appear that he will handle the extra weight.  May be a bit wider today but may play into his hands if there is sufficient pace during the running. Wealthy Fortune has been bouncing up and down between this class and class three recently and may be worth a bit of an each way bet here as he ran well last start at this class over the 1600m. Up a touch in distance today and maybe a bit of value.

 

Race Overview

Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 2 Reborn To Win

Value Selection: No G One Bo Bo

Exotic Inclusions: No 4 Born To Win and No 10 Penny Lane / No 6 Gold Dragon

Reborn To Win was going along ok at class 3 this season without setting the world on fire but has dropped enough in the ratings to get back to class 4 today. Looks a bit of a chance here even with top weight as he should be well placed near the rails during the running. Should improve on latest run and put in a good sight. G-One Bo Bo was expected to improve with the step up in distance last start but did not get much room in the running and pulled up lame which may have been as a result of that running. Only had the three runs in Hong Kong and I am sure Joao would not be sticking with him today id he did not show potential.

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1650m – AWT—Class 5

Top Pick: No 5 Happy Moments

Value Selection: No 7 Good Fit

Exotic Inclusions: No 1 Expedite and No 2 Imperial Concorde

Race Overview

Happy Moments Has not done much since arriving in Hong Kong other than recently when he went over to the AWT and showed quick improvement with the exception of his second last start. Recorded a nice win last start on the dirt and may very well be worth the follow with Joao Moreira retaining the ride today. Good Fit recorded a nice win at this class last start at his first go on the AWT over the 1800m. Back to the AWT mile today. Is expected to be well positioned in the running here and still looks well weighted. If he has adapted to the AWT as it looks like he has is certainly worth consideration here. 

 

Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 2000m—Class 2

Top Pick: No 3 Got Fly

Value Selection: No 2 Wayfoong Express

Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Ashkiyr and No 10 Tableaux

Race Overview

Got Fly has really got going all be it with just the three starts in Kong Kong and does look to have plenty of potential. Worked into the race well last start and recorded a nice win. Looks to be in the same position today and should have a very nice trial in the running after coming up with gate 5. Has won over this distance in France prior to arriving in Hong Kong and does look to have talent and suited over this distance today. Wayfoong Express goes around at class two for the first time today. Lightly raced this season as was found to be lame two starts back but did put in a very nice effort last start at HKG3 over the 1800m. Was closing well on that occasion and does not look to bad at the weights with 128Lbs and is certainly in this today.

 

Race 6: — Time: 7.30am GMT—Distance: 1650m – AWT—Class 3

Top Pick: No 5 Goldland Dancer

Value Selection: No 3 Horse Aplenty

Exotic Inclusions: No 8 Scimitar and No 10 Axiom

Race Overview

Goldland Dancer does prefer this surface and ran a very nice 4th last start over this distance on this surface. Did not get away well on that occasion and made up a lot of ground in the running even though he was wide on most occasions from a wide gate. Comes up with a much better draw today in gate four and if he jumps on terms he should be well placed in the running and is expected to be in the finish here. Horse Aplenty has shown that he is much better suited on this surface this season and the distance does look to suite. Fairly even on paced effort last start and should take a similar approach today after coming up with a nice draw in gate 5. Look for improvement here.

 

Race 7: — Time: 8.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class- Hong Kong Group One

Top Pick: No 5 Peniaphobia

Value Selection: No 1 Gold – Fun

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Aerovelocity and No 9 Smart Volatility / No 4 Lucky Nine

Race Overview

Peniaphobia is certainly the new kid on the block and came hard to get up last start from an unsuitable gate over the 1000m. Looks even better suited over the 1200m and has came up with a nice draw in gate three. Will be powering home over the concluding stages. Gold – Fun has not been over this distance even prior to arrival in Hong Kong but what he does possess is good gate speed and good early speed. Has found things a bit out of place over the mile recently but that has also been at the hands of Able Friend but not just that as he has certainly found it hard to go with them lately and may very well be worth a go over this distance as it would appear that they have him ready to go here. Appeals as value. Aerovelocity Has certainly been firing lately and for a fair while now with the exception of his 2nd last start when he had excused after being bumped from pillar to post. Comes up with another great draw in gate 5 today and at set weights and Zac Purton as the pilot certainly appeals as another good chance today in a very good field.

Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 4 Radiant Bunny

Value Selection: No 2 Charter Legend

Exotic Inclusions: No 7 Travel Renyi and No 1 Berlini / No 13 Ultimate Glory

Race Overview

Radiant Bunny had good form in Queensland before coming to Hong Kong and his last two runs here suggests that he will not be far away from a win at this class. Went to the line very solid last start over this distance and is only up 1Lb on that effort and gets Zac Puton in the saddle for the first time. You would expect he really should be in the finish here. Chater Legend Only the two runs in Hong Kong and did go really well last start over this distance. Carrys a similar weight today and should be fitter for recent racing. Would not have to improve too much to be an each way chance here.  Travel Renyi goes up in distance today but certainly gived the impression that he is looking for this trip as he has been closing very well over the 1200m. Comes up with a nice draw in gate three and has Joao Moreira in the saddle. Interesting to see that his last start hoop in Douglas Whyte in off him today and onto Berlini a bit of a chance even though he has drawn wide.

 

Race 9: — Time: 9.10pm GMT—Distance: 1800m—Class – Hong Kong Group One

Top Pick: No 1 Beauty Only

Value Selection: No 9 Redkirk Warrior

Exotic Inclusions: No 2 Giant Treasure and No 10 Contentment

Race Overview

At set weights over the mile Beauty Only gobbled them up last start. Has the same weight today but is going over the extra 200m in ground for the first time but the way he won last start may very well take to this distance as well. Drawn well and should get a nice trail in the running. Retains his usual hoop in Neil Callan and only has to be somewhere near his last start to give this a big shake. Redkirk Warrior Can stay and has won over the 2000m prior to arrival in Hong Kong and should get further as his career progresses. Very nice win over the Sha Tin mile last start. Sat handy and finished off very well. Drawn wide today but should be able to work into it with the extra 200m today. Retains Joao Moreira in the saddle and should go close here with natural progression.

Race 10: — Time: 9.45pm GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 2

Top Pick: No 4 Appinati

Value Selection: No 2 Luger

Exotic Inclusions: No 12 High and Mighty and No 7 Romantic Touch and if going after the trifecta or a 1st 4 I would be adding No’3 What You Dream and No 5 Full Talent.

                                                         Race Overview         

 Appinati has only had the four starts in Hong Kong and already started at HKG1 last start and ran a very nice race finishing 4th in the wash up. Should be well placed in the running today and even drops 1 Lb in the weights which is a bit out of place as he is back to class two today after such a nice run last start. However this is a very good field and he will have to make his chances. Tommy Berry is back in town and has the mount today which is a very nice positive as well. Luger looked like he was going on to bigger and better things before this season where he has hit a couple of issues which can happen to high performance race horses. Was found to have an irregular heart beat 2 starts back and was found to have a temperature before running last start and as a result was scratched. Trialled well since and if ready to go which trials indicate he is does appear as a good chance here. Drawn well in gate three and if he gets a good trail as expected will certainly be in the frame here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Horse Racing Preview February 14th

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Plenty of top quality horse racing action in the UK this weekend from Haydock and Ascot including several Cheltenham and Aintree contenders.

Ptit Zig has been one of the best novice chasers of the season so far and Paul Nicholls is pitching him in against more experienced rivals in the Betfair Ascot Chase. As we suggested in midweek, 11-4 did not last long but 9-4 still looks a decent price for a horse that has hardly put a foot wrong all season. He has won at Ascot before and there is no reason to desert him at this stage.

The pressure will be on Lizzie Kelly in the opening novice event where she rides impressive Lanzarote Hurdle winner Tea For Two. He won that so easily that his trainer is thinking in terms of taking on the best novices at Cheltenham next month and a victory on Saturday would secure his place. I was disappointed with Arpege D’Alene last time out and expect Miss Kelly to complete the hat-trick.

I’m also keen on the chances of Otago Trail later in the card for Venetia Williams. He destroyed his rivals last time out and is clearly well above average. He could take his chance in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle if he comes through tomorrow’s test with flying colours.

Over at Haydock, I expect to see Top Notch win comfortably in a bitterly disappointing renewal of the Victor Ludorum Hurdle at 1.45. Top Notch races in the same colours as Triumph favourite Peace And Co so it would be no surprise if Nicky Henderson elected to save him for Aintree instead. We put up Benbens earlier in the week at 10-1 and he is still available at 9-1 for the Grand National Trial. I was tempted to support Monbeg Dude but I’m put off by how far he got behind here in 2013. I’m sure he will run a good trial for Aintree nonetheless.

The three-mile hurdle looks wide open but it may be worth taking a chance on Bygones Sovereign at 10-1. He won by 28 lengths at Newbury last time when he stole a march on his rivals. I’d be surprised if the other jockeys allow him so much rope this time but he still races off 10st despite a 13lbs rise in the handicap.

The most popular double of the day has to be Tea For Two and Teaforthree. I was surprised how easily the 2013 National runner-up won over two and a half miles last time and he looked full of himself. I’d expect him to follow up in the last at Haydock.

Tea For Two 1.30 Ascot @4-7 Bet365

Benbens 2.55 Haydock @10-1*

Bygones Sovereign 3.25 Haydock @10-1 Bet365

Ptit Zig 3.50 Ascot @11-4*

Otago Trail 4.20 Ascot @5-4 William Hill

Teaforthree 5.05 Haydock @4-6 Betfair

*Ante-post

Haydock Grand National Trial Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Betfred Grand National Trial at Haydock is the big betting race this weekend. It has not always lived up to its billing with trainers reluctant to give their National horses a hard race in testing ground ahead of the Aintree marathon.

One horse that definitely has Aintree as his main objective is Monbeg Dude, seventh behind Pineau de Re in April. He ran in this race two years ago when coming from a different county to finish third behind Well Refreshed. The going was heavy that day and he carried 10st 12lb. On Saturday he is set to race off 11st 11lb and the conditions may well be similar if the forecast rain arrives.

On the plus side, he has run two excellent National trials this season when fourth in the Hennessy at Newbury and fourth in the Welsh National at Chepstow. The latter race often holds the key here and four of the first five are entered this weekend. Benvolio carried our each-way support and was unlucky to be beaten on the nod by Emperor’s Choice after a real battle over the final few fences.

Glenquest has looked set to spring a 33-1 shock when leading between the last two but the Irish challenger just got weary on the run-in and hung away to his left. He has not raced since but cannot be discounted off only a 4lbs higher mark. The stable landed a nice gamble with Yes Tom at Ayr in midweek and Glenquest won’t mind how deep the ground gets.

Benbens is another who is at his best when the mud is flying and he ran a super race at the last meeting here when just failing to catch Samstown. He looks a hard ride and Ryan Hatch will have to earn his fee. More importantly, Hatch claims 5lbs which means Benbens is 10lbs better off with Samstown for a neck and has an extra half mile to travel. Providing that race did not take too much out of him, he is going to be difficult to keep out of the frame.

Lucinda Russell won this race in consecutive seasons with Silver By Nature and could run Lie Forrit. He was a good hurdler a few years ago and has gradually improved over fences. Rigadin de Beauchene won this last year but has pulled up on all three subsequent starts.

Benbens @10-1 Betfair

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

UAE 2000 Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Most of us are pre-occupied with the run up to the Cheltenham festival at the moment but Sheikh Mohammed is already assessing his classic hopes for the new flat season. The brilliant success of Local Time in the UAE 1000 Guineas is going to be hard to top in the colt’s equivalent on Thursday but a decent field has been assembled.

South African trainer Mike de Kock has dominated this race in previous seasons and is double-handed as he goes for a sixth victory. His colts finished first and second in the trial race last month with Mubtaahij storming five lengths clear of Ajwad.

De Kock has revealed that jockey Christophe Soumillon has chosen to ride Ajwad in preference here with Pat Dobbs aboard Mubtaahij. I have watched the race closely and, try as I might, cannot find any reason why Mubtaahij won’t beat Ajwad again on Thursday. Both colts broke well and travelled nicely at the head of the field before Mubtaahij stretched clear in the straight.

If there was an unlucky horse it was Godolphin’s Maftool who was slowly away and ran on steadily to finish third. The betting suggests that he will make a race of it this time but he still needs to improve. He did win a Group 3 at Newmarket in September but it wasn’t a particularly strong race and he appeared to have his limitations exposed in the Dewhurst. He was no match for Belardo that day, finishing fifth of the six runner field. I also felt that Maftool tended to hang fire a little in the closing stages, although that may have been due to his exertions in trying to make up the lost ground.

The Godolphin colt finished second to Richard Hannon’s Burnt Sugar over six furlongs at Kempton prior to his Newmarket win. The winner is yet to win beyond that distance and Maftool should have his measure. Godolphin are also represented by Zephuros who finished fourth in the trial without ever really threatening. He ran well enough when fifth to Mastermind at the last meeting here but it would be a surprise if he were to prove good enough.

Padlock was even further back in sixth place in the trial with Unorthodox finishing eighth. Mubtaahij can show himself to be a smart colt and land a sixth UAE 2000 Guineas for his trainer.

Tip

Mubtaahij 3.55 Meydan @7-4 Betfair