Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Ptit Zig fancied for Betfair Ascot Chase

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One of the most exciting prospects for the Cheltenham festival in March is the Paul Nicholls-trained Ptit Zig who is unbeaten in four starts over fences. He is set to line up in Saturday’s Betfair Ascot Chase after stable companion Al Ferof was ruled out through injury.

The sponsors put up Balder Succes as the 9-4 favourite on Tuesday with Ptit Zig at 11-4 but I don’t think that price will last long. Ptit Zig was long odds-on at Exeter and Warwick in November and won both races without any fuss. He was then upped in class to a Grade 2 at Ascot and dished out a nine-lengths beating to the odds-on Josses Hill.

The runner-up was surprisingly beaten last week in his Cheltenham prep but remains a serious chasing prospect. It was the superior speed on the flat which was particularly impressive about the winner, quickening clear after the last. Traffic Flude finished almost 30 lengths behind Ptit Zig but won readily at Plumpton on Monday.

Nicholls sent the son of Great Pretender to Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and he put Champagne West by six lengths. As at Ascot, Ptit Zig showed a good turn of foot from the last and his most likely target is the JLT Novices’ Chase at the festival.

Alan King’s Balder Succes was thought to be a likely contender for the Champion Chase at the start of the season but he suffered defeats on his first three starts. He was slightly disappointing when only fourth to Dodging Bullets in the Tingle Creek Chase in December. He was then beaten by Special Tiara at Kempton but bounced back to win on the same course in January.

Champagne Fever was a high class hurdler but has proved a little erratic over fences. He came close to winning the Arkle last season when just beaten on the nod by Western Warhorse. His only victory since was at Clonmel in November. He did not seem to get home when fourth to Silviniaco Conti at Kempton in the King George VI Chase and fell at Thurles last time. He looked beaten at the time with Don Cossack going on to win well.

Ma Filleule looked a very exciting prospect when winning at Aintree in April and shaped well when only a length and a half behind Sam Winner at the same course in December. The grey still holds a Gold Cup entry and may find one or two of these too quick here.

Ptit Zig 3.50 Ascot @11-4 Betfair

Bookies braced for McCoy factor

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A busy racing weekend was completely overshadowed when Champion jockey Tony McCoy announced that he would be retiring at the end of the season.

Although there had been rumours of McCoy hanging up his riding boots for some time, the media seemed to be taken completely off guard following the victory of Mr Mole in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. Most eyes had been on former two-mile champion chaser Sire de Grugy who had blotted his copybook when unseating Jamie Moore. Even the day’s feature race, the Betfair Hurdle, was run in a strangely subdued atmosphere as racing tried to absorb the news.

McCoy, or “AP” as he is widely known, will be crowned champion jockey for the 20th consecutive time at the end of the season. Considering the high risk nature of his job, that is nothing short of remarkable. He has had his share of injuries over the years but has kept coming back for more. He has been part and parcel of the National Hunt scene for so long that he is bound to be sorely missed.

In the meantime, the bookmakers are bracing themselves for a surge of support for McCoy’s mounts for the rest of the campaign. His win on Carlingford Lough on Sunday gave us a taste of what to expect if, and when, he boots home a winner at the Cheltenham festival and Aintree. His Hennessy win was a vintage McCoy ride, recovering from a mistake to drive back up to his rivals and grind out an unlikely victory.

Carlingford Lough has already been cut to as short at 8-1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup while he remains a more realistic 12-1 with William Hill. Shuttthefrontdoor is currently joint-favourite for the Grand National at 20-1. Trainer Jonjo O’Neill is planning on running him in the Gold Cup as well but Aintree is his number one target.

When McCoy ended his 15-year wait for a Grand National winner on Don’t Push It in 2010, bookmakers estimated that the champ had cost them around £50million. If Shutthefrontdoor gets to the National with McCoy in the saddle, he will almost certainly start favourite. Were he to end his career on such a high note, it would rate alongside the greatest racing memories like Dawn Run, Desert Orchid and Red Rum. It couldn’t possibly happen could it?

Carlingford Lough – Cheltenham Gold Cup @12-1 William Hill

Shutthefrontdoor – Grand National @20-1 William Hill

Horse Racing Preview February 7th

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It’s all systems go for a cracking Newbury card on Saturday with the Betfair Hurdle supported by the reappearance of champion chaser Sire de Grugy.

We previewed the Betfair Hurdle last month and our ante-post selections have both made the final line-up. Activial (tipped at 10-1) has been trained for the race and I see no reason to desert him at this late stage. It could be argued that he is badly weighted with Calipto on novice form but I think the favourite has a few quirks and I’m prepared to oppose him.

Vasco Du Ronceray (tipped at 33-1) is currently showing at 75-1 on Betfair and seems virtually friendless in the market. Whether that is because Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride Sign Of A Victory I am not sure but Peter Carberry claims 3lbs and it wouldn’t be impossible for him to make the frame. There don’t seem to be any natural front-runners in the field so I can see the field packed up turning for home and there could be some hard-luck stories.

As expected, Vibrato Valtat has headed to Warwick for the Kingmaker Chase rather than take on Sire de Grugy in the Game Spirit. That leaves the improving Mr Mole as his most likely danger and even still looks a good price about the popular chestnut. Gary Moore obviously won’t have him at 100% for this but I’d be disappointed if he wasn’t fit enough to win. Hopefully he can take this and set up the three-way clash with Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets in the Champion Chase next month.

The Denman Chase is a tricky one with question marks against several of the runners. Houblon Des Obeaux ran a cracker in the Hennessy in November but has been beaten since while Taquin Du Seuil, Harry Topper and Double Ross have all been out of sorts. Unioniste is not quick by any stretch of the imagination while Coneygree has done nothing wrong since returning from injury. It may be between the pair with the Nicholls runner narrowly preferred.

Over at Warwick, Vibrato Valtat takes on the game front-runner Top Gamble in the Kingmaker Chase. The race is perfectly set up for the grey to get a nice lead through the race and challenge at the last. Glens Melody should be able to win the Mares’ Hurdle for a second consecutive year without Mischievous Miss in attendance. The Irish mare produced a great run at the Cheltenham festival behind Quevega and nothing else in the field can boast form at that level.

Vibrato Valtat 2.05 Warwick @6-5 Bet Victor

Unioniste 2.25 Newbury @4-1 Coral

Glens Melody 2.40 Warwick @Evens Bet365

Sire de Grugy 3.0 Newbury @10-11 Sky Bet

Activial 3.35 Newbury @10-1 ante-post

Vasco Du Ronceray @33-1 ante-post, 75-1 Betfair

Sha Tin Racing Sunday 7th February Tips

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HONG KONG RACING SUNDAY 7 February

SHA TIN

Hong Kong Wrap Up

Another great days racing coming up at Sha Tin today with the Group Three Centenary Vase Handicap over the 1800m. Certainly looks like a very exciting race even with the scratching of the top weight Military Attack. Designs On Rome now takes the place of favourite and has to be the one to beat on current form but he will be giving away a fair bit of weight to the rest of the field so today we will certainly see just how good he is. The last five races on the card today all look good and you can certainly expect some very competitive racing however Massive Move in race two does look extremely hard to hold out over the 1000m where they run down the grandstand side of the track which make for spectacular viewing and entertainment and he goes in as our best of the day. The best value is represented in Race 10 where No 1 Wonderful Moments is currently at each way odds. He has been racing in stronger company than he is today so if he carries the extra weight he but certainly appeals as a bit of value today.

Track and Conditions: Turf – C+3 Course with the exception of races 1-4-6 which will be on the All Weather Dirt Track. Track will be rated Good.

Expected Weather:  Mainly Cloudy and dry with sunny periods and a top temperature of 18 Degrees. Wind will be from the east to northeast gusting up to 30 Km/h which will create a head wind down the straight and assisting on paced runners but it should be a mainly fair playing ground just the same.

 

Best Bet: Race 2 No 4 Massive Move

Best Value: Race 10 No 1 Wonderful Moments

Exotic Races: Race No’s 6-7-8-9-10

Quaddie:-

Race 7: 5-2 Race 8: 2-3-6-8-11 Race 9: 1-5 Race 10: 13-1-10-2

 

Race 1: — Time: 5.00am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 5 – AWT

Top Pick: No 9 Always Wonderful

Value Selection: No 2 Sledge Hammer

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Mighty Gains and No 1 Glorious Avenue

Race Overview

Always Wonderful Dropped back to this class late last season and switched to the AWT this season and did nothing at his first two go’s but turned it around last start when he ran a very good on paced third in a very similar class field. Would not have to improve too much on that effort to go close here. Has drawn well in gate four and will jump in a forward position today and should be in the finish at some point. Sledge Hammer last won over this distance on this surface and drops back to that class today. Drawn ok and does get the services on Joao Moreira in the saddle. May make the price a bit unders but has to go in as a good chance today.

 

Race 2: — Time: 5.30am GMT—Distance: 1000m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 4 Massive Move

Selection: No 13 Glory Horsie

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Top Bonus and No 6 Timely Arrived / No 8 Peace Combination

Race Overview

Massive Move certainly looks suited over this course today having came up with a very nice draw in gate 12 and does get his chance here. Looks in a treat at the weights and should be hard to run down. Glory Horsie does look the main pace influence in this race and with his light weight you would expect he should lead. May run a cheeky race at decent odds.

 

Race 3: — Time: 6.00am GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 10 Sparkling Sword

Value Selection: No 4 Secret Agent

Exotic Inclusions: No 11 Fire Starter and No 1 Hard Ball Get

Race Overview

Sparkling Sword still to win at this class but has gone very close on a few occasions. Dropped back to class five recently and picked up a race over this distance with 132Lbs on his back. Back up to class four and ran a fairly solid on paced race last start over this distance and was not far away on the post. Would not have to do too much more to break through here. Still nicely weighted and comes up with a nice barrier draw in gate three .Secret Agent has been bouncing up and down in class a bit lately but does look a bit of a chance here today after winning at this class recently. This looks about as far as he will get so will need a soft run but if so will certainly be in with a very good chance here.

 

Race 4: — Time: 6.30am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 4 – AWT

Top Pick: No 9 Horse Supremo

Value Selection: No 2 Confucius Elite

Exotic Inclusions: No 4 Easy Success and No 5 Star Of Wai Bo

Race Overview

Horse Supremo they have tried him on all tracks but looks best at home on the AWT and produced a nice run last start on the dirt after leading most of the way. Will most likely attempt the same tactics today and if not pressured too much may very well be the one to run down over the concluding stages. Confucius Elite Has been a very consistent runner over this season and there is no reason to doubt he will put in once again today. Weighted at his best but he does have his race day hoop in Max Guyon in the saddle and certainly has appeal in a race of this type.

 

Race 5: — Time: 7.00am GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 4

Top Pick: No 3 Supreme Profit

Value Selection: No 11 Elite Pride

Exotic Inclusions: No 5 Born To Win and No 4 Mac Row

Race Overview

Supreme Profit has been closing off extremely well recently and ran very well last start only missing by a very short margin. Only has to repeat that effort to give this a big shake. Drawn well and should get a nice trail in the running and gets Zac Purton in the saddle for the first time today as well. Elite Pride put in a nice effort two starts back over the 1400m then stepped up to the Mile last start and did not perform as expected but it does appear that he had excused on that occasion after losing a plate early in the running. Gets another chance today with a similar weight and they have thrown Joao Moreira in the saddle as well. Will be a bit of value if he stays at each way odds.

 

Race 6: — Time: 7.35am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3 – AWT

Top Pick: No 4 Startling Power

Value Selection: No 3 Dehere’s The Love

Exotic Inclusions: No 9 Hidden Value and No 12 Hit The Bid / No 7 Able Warrior

Race Overview

Startling Power all bar one run this season has been very consistent and after going up to this class two runs back he recorded a very nice win last start over this distance all be it with a very light weight. Gets a decent weight rise today but he does retain Joao Moreira as his pilot and this is not an overly strong Class three. The only query is the wide draw in gate 10. Dehere’s The Love was in sparkling form before going up to class three and was going well early on as well but the extra weight seems to have got him on an even playing field at the moment. however he does come up with a nice draw today in gate 4 which will certainly suite and may very well give this a very good shake.

 

Race 7: — Time: 8.05am GMT—Distance: 1200m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 5 Eroico

Value Selection: No 2 Supreme Falcon

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Dining World and No 9 Ovett / No 7 Golden Deer

Race Overview

Eroico does look a bit above average but will have to work hard this time in from a wide gate and has a couple of more Lb’s to work with today as well but having said that he is a very improving type and would not have to improve too much to get away with this as well before he goes right up in the weights. Supreme Falcon does look weighted at his best now after recording some nice wins at this class. Most recently at Happy Valley but he also put two together early in the season over this distance at Sha Tin. Should enjoy a good run in transit and has to go in as a bit of value here.

 

Race 8: — Time: 8.35am GMT—Distance: 1800m—Class HKG3

The Centenary Vase

Top Pick: No 2 Designs On Rome

Value Selection: No 3 California Memory

Exotic Inclusions: No 6 Willie Cazals and No 8 Khaya and if hunting for a trifecta or 1st 4 then you can throw in No 11 Packing Llaregyb

Race Overview

Awesome race here and the weights are certainly spread out a fair bit so if Designs On Rome can go close then he is certainly a very good runner as he giving away a fair bit in weight today. With the scratching of Military Attack it does appear that Designs On Rome may very well have this race at his mercy. Won his last start at Group One over the 2000m and had been working up to that. Should still be in top fitness as his track work indicates and the drop back in distance should not be a problem. California Memory Going to throw a bit of value into the exotics here with this one. Always closes on most occasions as a result of being ridden back and even though he has not won for a while there is one key factor here and that is his weight. He raced on the pace two starts back and was only beaten by 3/4 of a length in a G2 over the 2000m then was beaten by 4 lengths in a G1 over the same distance last start in a race which developed into a sprint home and did not really suit. That race was at set weights and won be Designs On Rome goes up 5 lbs today where as California Memory go’s down 5 Lbs so there is a 10 Lb difference today and if one of the lighter weighted runners of which there are a few decide to take it up then he just may get the pace to suit and is certainly worth a look at current odds.

 

Race 9: — Time: 9.10pm GMT—Distance: 1600m—Class 3

Top Pick: No 1 Ishvara

Value Selection: No 5 Jun Huo

Exotic Inclusions: No 3 Red Dancer and No 2 Winning Instinct / No 6 Kerkeni

Race Overview

Ishvara has really shown that he is a very good type since arriving in Hong Kong and has been right on the job this season. Very hard to leave out here even though he has top weight today. If he wins today he will certainly progress to Group racing and that certainly looks a strong possibility. Drawn well in gate 3 and has Zac Purton in the saddle and this does look like one of Zac’s best chances today. Jun Huo only the three runs in Hong Kong and the first two were good and won over this distance two starts back. Put in a sub standard performance last start over the 1800m and the only explanation they could come up with was that he just did not appreciate the jump up in distance. Has trailed well since and is expected to perform much better today. In the absence of Brett Prebble he gets Douglas Whyte in the saddle so he loses nothing here. May pay to follow at decent odds here.

 

Race 10: — Time: 9.45pm GMT—Distance: 1400m—Class 2

Top Pick: No: 13 Pikachu

Value Selection: No 1 Wonderful Moments

Exotic Inclusions: No 10 Precision King and No 2 What You Dream

                                                         Race Overview         

Pikachu just the one start at this class and looks to have measured up after running a very nice third with 120Lbs on his back from a wide gate over this distance. Actually drops 4 Lbs today and comes up with a nice draw in gate five. Neil Callan is off him but looses nothing in Maxi Guyon in the saddle today. Wonderful Moments Is a very nice type and has been mixing it with better class runner’s lately in stronger company and comes up with a reasonable gate today and should be in the firing line once again. Up in the weights but if he carries it he will go very close here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Local Time 40-1 for 1000 Guineas after UAE romp

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Meydan provided flat racing fans with a taste of things to come this year with a top quality card on Thursday. The returning Dubai World Cup winner African Story failed to overcome his lengthy absence but there is no doubt who was the star of the show. Godolphin filly Local Time blew away the opposition in the UAE 1000 Guineas, winning by three and a quarter lengths.

The race was billed as a re-match between Local Time and Ad Idem after the pair had been separated by just a short-head in the trial two weeks’ ago. Ad Idem, trained by Mick de Kock, set out in front but was always travelling too keenly in the hands of Paul Hanagan. James Doyle sat in his slipstream before moving upsides with other three furlongs to run.

It was already obvious that Local Time was going much the better and she strode clear to win impressively. Stable companion Good Place ran on well to take second with Ad Idem dropping right away to finish last. A year ago I was very keen on the chances of Ihtimal for the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket after a similar performance. She went on to win the UAE Oaks by a record margin before finishing third at Newmarket.

Could Local Time be in that class? She was officially rated only 89 after beating Astrelle in the Oh So Sharp Stakes in October (coincidentally a race won by subsequent Guineas winner Miss France in 2013), a rating revised to 99 after her trial victory. I would imagine this latest win puts her up to around 106. The current 1000 Guineas favourite is Aidan O’Brien’s Found who was third to Cursory Glance (112) in the Moyglare Stud Stakes before winning impressively in France. In terms of the ratings, Local Time is a lively outsider but the bookmakers quotes vary from 16-1 with Stan James to 40-1 with 888sport.

The problem for ante-post backers is guessing Godolphin’s plans for the filly. It seems very likely that she will follow Ihtimal by running in the UAE Oaks before a decision is made regarding Newmarket. If she wins well there, she could run in the UAE Derby or the Guineas. Godolphin may even be tempted to run her in the Kentucky Oaks, given her improved form on dirt.

African Story was always going to be up against it in the Al Maktoum Challenge after almost a year off the track. He never threatened to get involved, eventually finishing seventh behind Frankyfourfingers and Prince Bishop.

Local Time 1000 Guineas @40-1 888Sport, 32Red

Spring Heeled value at 33-1 for Grand National

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The all-weather racing may help to keep business ticking over in the betting shops but it’s no substitute for action on the turf. The recent cold snap has been eating into the fixture list but it does free up some time to look further ahead.

The entries for the 2015 Grand National were announced today with 98 horses taking the first step towards adding their names to the Aintree Hall of Fame. Pineau De Re already has his name etched into the history books after his great victory last season. Unfortunately I was not among his supporters as I was not entirely convinced that finishing third in a hurdle race at Cheltenham was an ideal prep race.

Dr Richard Newland knew better and he is adopting a similar policy this year. The horse has failed to sparkle in his first two outings but may bid to get on the comeback trail at Devon this weekend. Jonjo O’Neill’s Shutthefrontdoor has been among the market leaders since winning the Irish National but is now being challenged for favouritism by Unioniste.

I have a lot of time for the Paul Nicholls-trained grey but I just wonder if he has ruined his handicap mark with that win at Sandown last month. He has gone up 11lbs for that victory to 159 and he could even end up with top weight. Many Clouds (165) has been given an entry but I would imagine he would only run here if he was an early faller in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

I fancy Monbeg Dude to run a big race this year after finishing seventh on his first attempt. I regarded him as something of a mud lark after his Welsh National success but he proved he is better than that by winning a decent prize at Cheltenham on good ground. He has run two super trials at Newbury and Chepstow and is unlikely to do too much between now and Aintree.

The other one that catches my eye is the Irish hope Spring Heeled. Apart from being very appropriately named, he won the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in March when holding of Cause Of Causes. He was a fair fifth in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown and his only run since was when fourth in the Galway Plate in the summer. Jim Culloty is no mug and he will have been protecting Spring Heeled’s handicap mark before the weights come out. I cannot see his mark going much above 150 which will give him a good racing weight.

Spring Heeled @33-1 Paddy Power

Monbeg Dude @33-1 Paddy Power

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4