Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Sandown Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The $300,000 Group 2 Sandown Guineas is one of six Group races that bring the Spring Racing Carnival to a close this weekend.

The Adelaide-based Lord Aspen is set to put his unbeaten record on the line for Mick Huxtable following his impressive victory in the Hilton Hotels and Resorts Stakes. That win stretched his winning run to four and Matthew Neilson will ride him from barrier six on Saturday.

He is still relatively inexperienced and connections are optimistic that there is still further improvement to come. Third home Ducal Castle re-opposes after finishing strongly but Neilson felt that the winner was dossing in front.

The favourite is Darren Weir’s Stratum Star who will break from barrier two in the hands of Kerrin McEvoy. The son of Stratum colt has been in the first three in all of his last six races and looked sure to win the Group 3 Carbine Stakes last time out. The race was run at a crawl and he virtually pulled his way to the front with two furlongs to go but was run out of it by Kermadec close home.

He had earlier won the Listed Yellowglen Vintage Stakes and Crown Lager Stakes and a faster pace on Saturday should suit him. The Godolphin-owned Careless stayed on into fifth place and has plenty ground to make up.

The David Hayes & Tom Dabernig duo of Zululand and Petrology have been done no favours by the draw. Zululand and Stephen Baster start from barrier 9 with Petrology (Nicholas Hall) widest of all in barrier 13. Petrology won the Listed TV Stakes on Crown Oaks Day from Chill Party but the form does not look the strongest on offer.

Paul Messara has been talking up the chances of the lightly-raced Rekindled Power after his easy win in a maiden race at Bendigo last time. He will start from barrier ten under Dwayne Dunn and is closely related to the smart Rekindled Interest. That horse won the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase and Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes as well as being placed in the Cox Plate. This race may just come a little too soon in Rekindled Power’s career but he looks a nice prospect.

Stratum Star is the form choice but Lord Aspen may just provide better value at around the 9-2 mark.

Lord Aspen @5.50 Sportsbet

Zipping Classic Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The last of the Melbourne Spring Carnival features take place at Sandown on Saturday including the $350,000 Group 2 Zipping Classic.

The race is named after the horse that dominated this race between 2007 and 2010, winning for four consecutive seasons for owner Lloyd Williams. His colours could be carried by three horses this weekend including Melbourne Cup disappointment Fawkner.

The seven-year-old had gone into the big race in fine form after being narrowly beaten by Adelaide in a blanket finish to the Cox Plate. That followed a game win in the Caulfield Stakes and connections were optimistic of a big run at Flemington. Fawkner failed to pick up in the home straight and faded into tenth place.

He could be joined by 2012 Melbourne Cup winner Green Moon who returns after a virus foiled his chance for a repeat victory. Sea Moon may also make the line-up for which entries were re-opened after only 13 were declared.

They include another Melbourne Cup runner in Andre Fabre’s Au Revoir. He was priced at 70-1 for the big race but he ran reasonably well considering his wide draw. He moved up quite comfortably to the leaders on the home turn before his effort petered out to finish eighth. His best form is all at a mile and a half so it may simply have been a combination of having to use too much early speed and failing to see out the trip. He will join Peter Moody after this race and be aimed at next month’s Hong Kong Vase.

Au Revoir races in the colours of OTI racing and will be joined in the field by Andrew Balding’s Lord Van Percy. Andrew Balding’s stayer was denied a last-ditch attempt to qualify for Flemington when lameness ruled him out of the Lexus Stakes on Derby Day. He is reported to be fully recovered and will try to improve on his fifth place in the Herbert Power Stakes last month.

Prince Of Penzance could not quite get the better of Le Roi in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth Stakes but may be asked to turn out again by trainer Darren Weir. Moonee Valley Cup fourth Epingle and SA Derby runner-up Scratchy Bottom are also among the entries along with the David Hayes and Tom Dabernig-trained Spillway.  He ran a good race when fourth to Happy Trails in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes last time.

Au Revoir @Bet365

Bangor-on-Dee Wednesday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s a very long time since I visited Bangor-on-Dee racecourse in Wales. It is not exactly regarded as a likely starting point for Cheltenham festival winners but there are some seriously good horses on show on Wednesday.

Perhaps the one most likely to be heading to Cheltenham in March is Alan King’s Chatez who is yet to jump a hurdle in public. This horse has always been a bit better than the average flat performer to emerge from King’s stables and he has been rubbing his hands for some time about his hurdling prospects. Even when winning the valuable Haydock Silver Bowl in the summer there was never any doubt that he would be hurdling this winter. He meets another useful flat performer in Top Of The Glas but there will be some long faces if he is beaten.

King could also be on the mark earlier in the day with Dundee who makes his chasing bow in the 1.30. He managed to win over hurdles on his last start, just getting the better of Askamore Darsi who re-opposes on marginally better terms. There should not be much between them but Dundee has always looked more of a chaser. Premier Portrait edged out Withoutdefavourite last time but that may have been a modest contest while the free-running Vujiyama unseated his rider at Ffos Las. He is feared most on this tighter track.

Across The Bay reappears for the first time since being carried across the course in the Grand National in April. He contests the Anne Duchess Of Westminster Memorial Handicap Chase at 2.00 along with better-fancied stable companion Operating. I am going to take a chance on the in-form Bob Ford despite a 12lbs rise in the weights. He won so easily at Chepstow that odds of around 5-1 are too tempting to ignore.

It was good to see Desert Recluse return to his best on his hurdling debut for Henry Oliver. The former Queen Mother’s Cup winner looks a natural despite not having previously jumped a hurdle in public at the age of seven. However, he must concede 7lbs to the useful bumper winner Knight Bachelor, trained by Warren Greatrex. His runners are jumping out of their skins at present so I’ll have to side with the four-year-old.

Finally, Clondaw Kaempfer won a top class handicap hurdle at Aintree in the spring and now tries to give weight all round on his seasonal debut. The favourite is Nicky Henderson’s Kentucky Hyden who was runner-up in the Triumph Hurdle. I am yet to be convinced that the Triumph was anything special this year and I think the top weight is the value here at 7-1.

Dundee 1.30 @6-1 Bet365

Bob Ford 2.00 @5-1 Paddy Power

Knight Bachelor 2.30 @2-1 Betfair

Clondaw Kaempfer 3.00 @7-1 Ladbrokes

Chatez 3.30 @5-6 Betfair

Greatwood Hurdle Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Greatwood Hurdle is the big betting race at Cheltenham on Sunday, for which the bookmakers have made Nicky Henderson’s Vaniteux the clear favourite.

Their odds are based on his excellent third behind Vautour in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the festival meeting in March. Many pundits consider Vautour a live prospect for the Champion Hurdle this season so it is easy to understand their reasoning.

It looked a good quality renewal of the Supreme with Josses Hill, a stable companion of Vaniteux, finishing in second and Irving and Gilgamboa among those well beaten. Henderson rates Vaniteux very highly but it may be worth remembering that he has only raced four times for Henderson and must carry top weight of 11st 12lb.

With the going certain to be testing, I would rather side with something at the other end of the handicap and Clondaw Warrior catches the eye. He is trained by Willie Mullins and won the November Handicap on the flat on his most recent start. That victory was off a mark 34lbs higher than his official rating when joining the Mullins stable.

He is yet to race over hurdles for his new stable but if he shows anything like the same improvement as he has displayed on the flat, he looks very leniently treated. Mullins has also declared Daneking but most bookmakers are offering non-runner/no bet on the race. He makes plenty of each-way appeal here at 8-1.

Jonjo O’Neill’s Goodwood Mirage tended to walk through his hurdles last season but showed more respect for them under a good ride from McCoy at Wetherby on his seasonal debut. He was useful on the flat but just seems too close to the top weight after a hefty 9lbs rise. Garde Le Victoire is also prone to clout a couple of flights and did so again when beaten by Hawk High at Aintree last time.

David Pipe relies on Imperial Cup winner Baltimore Rock but he is now 15lbs higher in the weights than when winning at Sandown. Pearl Swan was a promising novice for Paul Nicholls a couple of seasons ago but surely cannot overcome an absence of almost two years. His stable companion Katgary ran poorly at Aintree and will need to improve to figure here.

Vaniteux should run well but I am siding with Clondaw Warrior to make the weight tell in the closing stages and take the prize back to Ireland.

Clondaw Warrior @8-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Paddy Power Gold Cup Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It’s the Open meeting at Cheltenham this weekend featuring two big betting races in The Paddy Power Gold Cup (Saturday) and The Greatwood Hurdle (Sunday).

The Paddy Power Gold Cup looks wide open with bookmakers going 7-1 the field. That brings in festival winner Present View who showed his well-being with a fine run in a hurdle race last month. A mistake at the last cost him victory that day but connections were more concerned with an injury picked up in the process. Fortunately it turned out to be no more than skin deep and he is reported back in great form ahead of Saturday’s race.

Last year’s first and second, John’s Spirit and Colour Squadron, return to do battle once again. There is no doubt that the runner-up was unlucky last year when finishing fast to be beaten only three-quarters of a length. He continued to run well in subsequent races but has not managed to get his head in front since 2011. That is hardly a great recommendation but I felt that he was very unlucky not to win at Newton Abbot last time out.

Tom O’Brien was a late replacement for Tony McCoy and decided to let Colour Squadron kick on a long way from home. He should have beaten Wonderful Charm at the weights but began to tie up in the closing stages and was pegged back on the run-in. I feel that he is good value at 12-1 for another big run in this race. He is 4lbs better off with last year’s winner Johns Spirit who recently won in good style. You have to respect Jonjo O’Neill’s horse but he is 17lbs higher than a year ago.

Oscar Whisky has won six times at Cheltenham in his career, all at or around this distance. He fell at the first fence at the festival and was beaten by Uxizandre at Aintree but is a classy horse and should go well. You just wonder whether he stayed over hurdles a little too long to fulfil his potential over fences and it would be a great effort to win this first time out.

Easter Meteor fell two out in this race last year but I’m not convinced that he was travelling well enough to trouble the first two.  He is now with David Pipe but has been put up 8lbs since so is not exactly a dark horse.  Buywise was let down by his jumping when fifth to Present View here in March but put in a clear round to slam Astracad by nine lengths next time. He defied a 6lbs rise at Ludlow but is up a further 6lbs on Saturday.

Colour Squadron @14-1 888Sport, Betway

¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

November Handicap Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The flat turf season finally comes to a close on Saturday with the November Handicap at Doncaster.

My record in this race was not great up until last year when William Haggas won it with Conduct (8-1). I wonder what ever happened to that horse? Saturday’s race looks the usual minefield of criss-crossing form lines with the possible exception of Luca Cumani’s Mount Logan.

I remember tipping this one last year in a two-year-old maiden and thinking that he looked like a stayer in the making. I was surprised when Cumani ran him in a Group 3 as a two-year-old but it did show that he must have thought something of him. He has been steady rather than spectacular this season, winning a couple of decent handicaps. He saved his best for his most recent outing when winning here in September. The handicapper has put him up 7lbs but he has the in-form Andrea Atzeni in the saddle and has avoided being drawn in the car park.

This race can be a real slog if conditions get really testing. The forecast is not that great for Thursday and Friday so we could see soft ground at the weekend. That would count against Peter Chapple-Hyam’s 40-1 Newmarket winner Farquhar who seems better on faster ground.

One piece of form that grabs my attention here is the victory of Latenightrequest at Haydock in September. Because Richard Fahey’s horse has gone on to win again here since, he faces a very stiff task at the weights with those that he beat at Haydock.

Alan Swinbank’s Dark Ruler is 15lbs better off for two lengths while runner-up Headline News and fourth-placed Kings Bayonet enjoy a similar weight pull. Headline News has since won at Newmarket while Dark Ruler won at Pontefract despite getting into traffic problems. The latter also has the advantage of having won on both of his previous visits here. If you fancy Dark Ruler it is impossible not to fancy Headline News too as he is 12lbs better off for a short-head.

Old Town Boy looked all out to win a competitive event at York last time and may be anchored by his 6lbs penalty. Rhombus was favourite for this a year ago and disappointed and never looked likely to stay the Cesarewitch distance. Communicator is having his third crack at this prize having finished runner-up in 2012 and fifth last year. He will probably run well again but is drawn 22.

Mount Logan @10-1 William Hill

Dark Ruler @22-1 Betfair

Headline News @16-1 Totesport

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4