Category: Horse Racing Tips

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BetVictor Gold Cup Opens Cheltenham Jumps Season

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

We’re heading to Gloucestershire and the iconic Cheltenham course for the weekend’s highlight and the first meeting of the new jumps season – the Grade 3 BetVictor Gold Cup. To be run on the Old Course over a distance of 2m 4½f (4124 metres), it dates back to 1960 and was known as the Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase until last year. It’s appropriate that in the week of Remembrance Day that there’s racing at Cheltenham as the venue served as a busy Great War hospital a century ago.

Graveyard for favourites

This is a race where, history shows, it’s best to steer clear of the market leaders. Irish trainer Jonjo O’Neill has high hopes for More Of That for next year’s Cheltenham festival, and the 4-1 pick will need to live up to that billing to end a seven-year drought for favourites. The last to triumph was Tranquil Sea (2009), and he is the only favourite to win in the past decade. Long Run (2010) and Present View (2014) placed in third.

Seven is the lucky number

Experience also counts in this early season chase. Six of the past 10 winners have been seven-year-olds with Caid Du Berlais (2014) the most recent to buck that trend as a five-year-old. No four-year-old has ever won this race so last week’s Wincanton winner Frodon has a tough task ahead. Not surprisingly, horses that are stepping up through the ratings are likely to impress this early in their prep. The key ratings numbers are 139-148, into which just seven of this year’s 19 runners qualify. Al Ferof (2012) was the last to fall outside this range (159).

Star power behind our pick

Although not ticking the age requirement, the value surrounding French gelding As De Mee is hard to ignore. Part-owned by actress Dame Judi Dench, the Paul Nicholls-trained six-year-old is into 8-1 joint second favourite behind stablemate Frodon and More Of That (both at 5-1). As De Mee was placed in Grade 1 novice chases last season and opened his winning account over fences in a Beginners’ Chase at Fontwell last month. The handicapper has generously left him alone on a very attractive mark of 139. Based on his second to More Of That here this time last year, he’s entitled to have a major say.

Spring Hits The Suburbs for Zipping Classic Day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

For the bulk of the year, horse racing is a constant on the Australian wagering landscape and it only comes to the fore in the public arena for a handful of weeks. That list doesn’t include Sandown Cup/Zipping Classic Day but this is a meeting that firmly belongs as part of Melbourne’s Spring Racing Carnival.

Situated in the heart of the city’s ever-expanding south-eastern suburbs, Sandown consists of two courses (Lakeside and Hillside) with the latter hosting this marquee meeting. Unlike its three ‘big brothers’ closer to the city, barriers aren’t a major issue and history shows that the track exhibits few signs of bias. But fitness is a major factor as the home straight features an uphill stretch that tests the mettle of both horses and jockeys. The big x-factor this year is the weather – thunderstorms and rain are forecast late on Friday evening before fine conditions return on Saturday afternoon.

Race against time for trainers

The day’s feature is the AUD $300,000 weight-for-age Quayclean Zipping Classic (2400m). It’s a race that pre-dates the track (which opened in 1965) by almost 80 years. Formerly known as the Williamstown Cup, it was shifted to Sandown and renamed the Zipping Classic in 2011 in honour of the horse that won the race in four successive years (2007-2010) for Lloyd Williams.

The owner of Melbourne Cup winner Almandin had planned to start up to four horses but will be without a runner in the eight-horse field. Five of those are backing up from the Melbourne Cup including surprise favourite Who Shot Thebarman. It’s an intriguing race as the bulk of the field are stepping back in distance to the mile-and-a-half, so it’s a challenge for trainers to freshen-up their charges less than a fortnight after the Melbourne Cup.

Orange looks the sweetest

One of the formlines that has again been franked throughout the Melbourne spring is the remarkable success of the internationals second-up. Three Zipping Classic entrants tick that box but the one that appeals is Big Orange. The six-year-old gelding is on his second trip Down Under, and he has a pair of impressive Melbourne Cup runs under his belt – fifth in 2015 and 10th this year.

However, those races were starkly different, with this year’s Cup run a staggering 18 lengths faster than last year’s relative dawdle. Jockey Jamie Spencer was caught out by that surprise pace this year but Damian Lane, who takes the ride here won’t hesitate to go forward in this field. The other two Cup runners rise sharply in weight, but Big Orange carries only 3kg extra. His run in the G2 Princess of Wales Stakes at Newmarket in July showed he can run a very sharp and quick 2400m.

Cup at Qewy’s mercy

There are only two 3200-metre races on the Melbourne Spring Carnival calendar – the Melbourne Cup and the Listed $150,000 Ladbrokes Sandown Cup. A field of 10 has accepted for the Sandown Cup with Melbourne Cup winning jockey Kerrin McEvoy again linking with Godolphin’s English trainer Charlie Appleby aboard Qewy.

McEvoy has already won the Bendigo Cup and Lexus Stakes on Appleby-trained horses this spring and reunites with Qewy on which he won the Geelong Cup last month. The stayer went on to finish fourth in the Melbourne Cup when ridden by Craig Williams. Appleby’s assistant James Ferguson said Qewy had come through the Melbourne Cup well and was in fantastic shape for Saturday, where he’ll start a $2.20 favourite with Ladbrokes. He’ll be up on the speed and looks the best bet on the card.

Wounded Punters Ready To Strike Back On Stakes Day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Most punters duly handed back their profits from the first two days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival on Oaks Day after both red-hot favourites were beaten. The victory of the Lasqueti Spirit in the Crown Oaks was particularly cutting – it’s not every day that a $101 maiden wins a Group 1 race worth AUD $1 million!

So it’s onwards and upwards for what is arguably the best day of the carnival highlighted by a new-look AUD $2,000,000 Group 1 Emirates Stakes (2000m) and the AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Darley Classic (1000m). The Flemington track has raced evenly across the previous three meetings but the usual trend of on-pace to run-on bias appears to have shifted this year, with horses on the speed dominating on Oaks Day. The track should remain in the good 3-4 range with a warm Friday forecast for Melbourne and only light showers on Saturday morning.

New era for Emirates Stakes

The Emirates Stakes that was once the highlight of the carnival finale is no more. Instead, the L.K.S. MacKinnon Stakes (previously run on Derby Day dating back to 1869) has been reshaped into a new era Emirates Stakes. The MacKinnon Stakes was once a key lead-up race to the Melbourne Cup, with 14 winners going on to repeat three days later.

However, the most recent winner of both races was Rogan Josh in 1999, and the relevance of the MacKinnon in the overall Cup picture has waned over the past decade. This reinvention of the MacKinnon shapes up as a cracking race – a weight-for-age field just a couple of notches below that of a Cox Plate line-up. Indeed, 10 of the past 12 winners of the MacKinnon contested the Cox Plate at their previous start with Gailo Chop the latest to successfully back-up. Dual Cox Plate winner Winx has been sent to the paddock leaving a tight market.

French raider poised for G1 triumph

Recent history shows that international runners making their second Australian start during the Melbourne spring have an outstanding record. Side Glance (2013) and Gailo Chop (2015) followed this formline in the MacKinnon, and French entire Vadamos looks an excellent chance of emulating that feat. His run in the Cox Plate was full of merit – working into a howling gale from the moment the gates opened, he was still pouring on the pressure at the 800m-mark and finished a gallant fourth behind Winx, Hartnell and Yankee Rose, rating more than 120.

The 2000 metres of the Emirates Stakes sits right in the middle of his preferred distance range, he’s drawn perfectly in barrier 7, and should be ridden a touch more patiently by Damien Oliver. He’s just shaded by The United States ($4.00) in the market and still looks a steal at $4.60 with William Hill.

Sydney sprinter to upset local hopes

The day’s other feature began life in 1960 as the Craven ‘A’ Stakes in a less “enlightened” time! The nation’s best sprinters dominate the honour roll including Buffering, Black Caviar (twice), Miss Andretti, Dance Hero and Takeover Target. This year’s field may not have the superstar factor but it’s an extraordinarily even field with up to nine legitimate challengers in a field of 12. The market can’t separate the top four – Fell Swoop ($6), Our Boy Malachi ($6), Lankan Rupee ($6.50) and The Quarterback ($6.50).

The straight races have been a bit of a lottery this week, so it’s worth looking past the obvious. Exciting Sydneysider Spieth has won five of his eight career starts including his past four in a row. Crucially, he’s had a run down the Straight Six, winning an 1100m handicap back in June. The $9 with Ladbrokes looks terrific value in such an even field.

It’s All About The Fillies On Crown Oaks Day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

A huge Melbourne Cup Day crowd is almost a given due to the city’s public holiday on the first Tuesday of November. But there’s no gazetted day off on the Thursday of the Melbourne Cup Carnival week. In 2004, that didn’t stop a staggering number of 110,677 racegoers turning out to watch the VRC Oaks.

Over the past dozen years, the crowd numbers have almost halved for Ladies Day, but more than 60,000 will still head out to Flemington this year – many of who will still be sending an SMS to the boss lamenting the misfortune at being struck down so suddenly by illness! As a race day, it pales somewhat compared to the other three days of Australia’s ultimate racing festival. The AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Crown Oaks (2500m) for the three-year-old fillies is the main event, supported by a pair of Group 3 races and a handful of Listed events.

Star power rules in day’s feature

The oldest fillies’ classic in Australia, the VRC Oaks was first contested in 1861. The presence of the names of some of the winners from those early days is slightly dubious as the 1864, 1868, 1870 and 1877 editions featured only two runners. Initially run over 12 furlongs, the distance was changed to 2400m with the introduction of metrics in racing in 1972, before becoming a 2500m race the following year to provide a longer run out of the straight before the first turn.

With the fillies untried at this distance, history shows that star quality is often enough to carry winners over the line as shown by the presence of Light Fingers, Surround, Rose Of Kingston, Research and Miss Finland on the honour roll. Short-price favourites are common in the Oaks, and that’s the case this year with Yankee Rose almost prohibitively priced at $1.65 (with Ladbrokes).

Yankee Rose dominates the market

That’s not to say she won’t be a worthy winner after a roller coaster ride alongside her trainer David Vandyke. The All-American filly was terrible in trackwork heading into this prep, and after finishing sixth in the G1 Golden Rose at Rosehill in September, connections feared she would never deliver on her immense promise. But she bounced back to be just pipped in the G1 Flight Stakes before winning the G1 Champion Stakes (200m) at Randwick.

Yankee Rose then turned in a stunning run to place third behind Winx and Hartnell in the Cox Plate to smash her rating through the 110-barrier. Vandyke, who recently shifted his base from Sydney to Queensland’s Sunshine Coast, has overcome drug and alcohol demons of his own, so they make a resilient pair deserving of more G1 success. Gate 13 isn’t ideal, but she simply wins.

It’s the day for the greys

There may not be much value in the Crown Oaks, but a couple of others on the card appeal at more generous prices. The third of the day is one of the most unique races on the Australian turf calendar. The Subzero Handicap (1400m) is a benchmark 90 affair reserved exclusively for greys! The superbly-named #4 Murt The Flirt ($4.60 with William Hill) won last time out at Caulfield and is drawn/weighted better than his main challengers, Sydney pair Rock Forthe Ladies and Onerous.

The Listed Mumm Stakes (1000m) also looks an intriguing affair with the return of injury-prone Terravista as he takes on the low-flying Hellbent from the all-conquering Darren Weir stable. The sprint fields have been heading for the outside fence this week, so the wide draw (12) is ideal for Hellbent. Take any price in the black for him to make it three in a row.

Melbourne Cup To Remain On Home Soil

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The “race that stops a nation” might sound clichéd, but it’s pretty close to the mark. At 3pm AEDT tomorrow (Tuesday), Australians across the expanse of the continent will stop work and either watch or listen to the AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup from Flemington in Melbourne. Even the most blasé will be quietly cheering on their Melbourne Cup betting pick from the office sweep, or the horse with a quirky name or wearing their favourite colours.

For those hoping to combine the day with the real thing, there are a staggering 42 TAB or picnic meetings scheduled – from Ascot to Alice Springs, Mount Isa to Morphettville and everywhere in between. Racing is big business in Sydney, but Royal Randwick’s biggest crowd of the year is Melbourne Cup Day. Meanwhile, the Flemington Lawn on the first Tuesday in November is one of the few places that you are likely to witness someone dressed as a horse watching the horses go by – it’s a day where anything goes trackside.
A Melbourne Cup deserves Melbourne weather

An iconic Melbourne day deserves some of the city’s unpredictable weather, with the forecast for a cool and clear morning giving way to afternoon showers with winds up to 20km/h. The latter is a major factor at Flemington – the wind sweeps up along the Maribyrnong River from nearby Port Phillip Bay. Astute jockeys know where it’s important to find cover from the wind, which was a huge factor here on Turnbull Stakes day.

There’s only been minimal rainfall since Derby Day so the track should again fall into the good (4) range and there’s unlikely to be an upgrade if it stays cool. The track raced very evenly on Saturday, so it isn’t terribly relevant that the rail remains in the true position. It also remains a day where it’s bloody tough to find a winner – the smallest fields contain 14 runners with the bulk closer to capacity.

Massive public money a boon for punters

The Melbourne Cup is unlike any other race of the year for serious punters. Public money floods into the betting pools like no other day, and the bookies are more than happy to let them get on. The favourites are almost always under the odds (as is the case with the top two, Hartnell and Jameka, this year) but there’s a stack of value on the rest of the genuine contenders.

The blanket media coverage and myriad expert opinions make it tough to stay objective, and as Prince Of Penzance showed in 2015, history can count for nothing depending on the circumstances of the day. But it would surprise if the winner did not emerge from this quartet – #9 Almoonqith ($31 with William Hill), #11 Grand Marshal ($34), #12 Jameka ($7.50) and #17 Almandin ($11). The Caulfield Cup winner Jameka just might turn out be in the class of Makybe Diva but can’t be seriously entertained at such a short quote.

Waller to end his Cup drought

Instead, Grand Marshal looks the bulletproof pick. Trainer Chris Waller presides over the dominant stable in the country, but the nation’s biggest prize has so far eluded him. He left Flemington gutted after Preferment fell short last year, but was buoyant after his Moonee Valley Cup (2500m) quinella of Grand Marshal and Who Shot Thebarman. His seven-year-old gelding also won the Sydney Cup (3200m) over the stablemate in the autumn, and he’s had a generously spaced prep heading into his grand final. Notably, Grand Marshal missed his planned lead-up run in the Geelong Cup due to administrative oversight, which will make a nice headline for the local sub-editors should he pinch the ultimate prize in Australian racing. Good luck punters!

Field Locked In For 2016 Melbourne Cup

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

From the moment that correct weight is announced for the final race on Victoria Derby Day, the focus shifts immediately to Tuesday’s AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup (3200m). The field was finalised today after Oceanographer, one of Godolphin’s five runners in the race, won the G3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) today.

The field of 24 runners again underlines the international interest in the world’s richest handicap race, which will be run at Flemington on Tuesday at 3pm. Just one locally bred horse, Caulfield Cup winner and second favourite Jameka ($7.50 with William Hill), will take its place in the field. A total of 10 internationally-trained runners have earned a spot in the field (eight from Europe and one each from Japan and New Zealand), with the remainder bred overseas but trained locally. So, where is the value to be found in the 2016 Melbourne Cup betting markets?

Payne’s legacy looms large

Cup Day is a wonderfully unique day on the Australian sporting calendar. It’s a public holiday in Melbourne, so the celebrations stretch will beyond the confines of the Flemington track. TAB outlets are packed as soon as their doors open, as once-a-year punters scour the form guide in search of the ultimate return for their annual flutter.

Those numbers are also likely to be bolstered after last year’s fairytale victory of Prince Of Penzance. Rated a 150-1 outsider, the six-year-old gelding scored in a massive upset. It also marked the first time a female jockey, Michelle Payne, had ridden a Cup winner. Payne’s profile now sits alongside those of the nation’s greatest sporting heroes. Katelyn Mallyon will be hoping to emulate Payne’s achievement on Assign this year.

Prince took the reign

The victory of Prince Of Penzance flew in the face of several long established trends, as the Melbourne Cup is a bloody tough race to win. Primarily, he was unproven at 3200 metres, but Payne made the most of a rails run after Frankie Dettori (on runner-up Max Dynamite) wiped out one-quarter of the field with an ill-timed shift at the 350m-mark, which earned him a fine and a one-month suspension. It’s a combination of factors that generally add up to just a handful of Cup runners having any hope of victory – the ability to run out a strong 3200 metres on firm going under handicap conditions. Some are weighted ideally, some have great staying ability and others love a hard track, but the combination proves a death knell for the bulk of the international contenders.

The winning formula

But having eliminated those without a genuine chance (the marathon trip from Europe, a long break between runs, weight, barrier and questionable Northern Hemisphere form are other impediments worth consideration), there are some proven filters to run through the remaining contenders to devise a list of potential winners. In the 24 editions of the Melbourne Cup since 1991, 17 winners had returned a career-best rating at their previous start. This tells us that the horse has been given the best possible preparation and is in the best form of his or her career. A short campaign in the autumn carnivals (in Australia or New Zealand) also suits Melbourne Cup runners. This factor has produced seven winners in the past 16 years.

First-up drought to end?

Normally, it’s worth steering clear of the international runners that have not had a previous run in Australia. Since 1993, when Vintage Crop won for Ireland, there have been more than 80 international starters entered in the Cup without a previous run in Australia. A handful has come extraordinarily close to victory but records show they all fell short. It’s actually a very weak Cup field that will again feature just a handful of winning chances – they include the Japanese runner Curren Mirotic, Wicklow Brave (barrier 24 and Dettori aboard aren’t ideal), Bondi Beach, Almoonqith (but must be ridden aggressively) and, at a stretch, Exospheric and Hartnell. Watch for our late mail update on Cup Eve.