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Melbourne Cup 2014 – Runner by Runner Guide

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Flemington Race 7 (3:00pm) Tuesday 4th November

Admire Rakti – 9

Clear favourite since winning the Caulfield Cup and carries only a 0.5kg penalty here. Classy Japanese raider who was fourth in the Japan Cup last year and has drawn perfectly in barrier 8.

Cavalryman – NON-RUNNER

Godolphin are still chasing that elusive first Cup victory and Cavalryman is not out of it despite being eight years of age. Won the Goodwood Cup in July and was fast enough to beat Hillstar at Newmarket over a mile and half previously.

Fawkner – 9

Consistent grey who won the Caulfield Stakes before finishing a short-neck second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Sixth last year and has a major chance of doing better here.

Red Cadeaux – 6

Veteran of three Melbourne Cups, finishing runner-up behind Dunaden in 2011 and Fiorente last year. His prep races have been poor this year and it will be a major shock if he can improve his record.

Protectionist – 8

Trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler and a big market mover following his fourth in the Caulfield Cup. Has not always been the easiest horse to train but has never been out of the first four and will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

Sea Moon – NON-RUNNER

A classy middle-distance performer in Europe and won the Herbert Power Stakes last year. Has been out of sorts in the build-up to the race will wear blinkers on Tuesday.

Seismos – 6

Regarded as the second string to the absent Dandino for Marco Botti and always struggling at Caulfield. Will need to hold his position early from barrier 1 if he is to have any chance.

Junoob – 7

Won the Group 1 Metropolitan for Chris Waller but did not enjoy a good run in the Caulfield Cup. Another with stamina concerns but perfectly drawn in barrier seven.

Royal Diamond – 7

Almost forgotten stable companion of Mutual Regard but the winner of the Irish St Leger in 2012 and a good performer in his own right. Has won on all types of ground but is unlikely to be improving at the age of eight.

Gatewood – 7

Was aimed at this race in 2012 but did not qualify and failed to settle in Australia subsequently. Has been revitalised by a return to John Gosden’s stable but drawn wide in barrier 22.

Mutual Regard – 9

Winner of the valuable Ebor handicap at York and a proven stayer with a touch of class. Has enjoyed a smooth preparation and is expected to go well for second season trainer Johnny Murtagh.

Who shot Thebarman – 6

One of three runners for Chris Waller and finished behind stable companion Junoob at Caulfield. Had previously won a Group 3 race here.

Willing Foe – 7

Beat Royal Diamond in the 2012 Ebor but has been lightly-raced since. Should get the trip but is regarded as Godolphin’s number two behind Cavalryman.

My Ambivalent – 6

A very ambitious raider from Roger Varian’s stable with no form beyond a mile and a half. Won the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes in Ireland last year but big stamina doubts.

Precedence – 5

Bart Cummings-trained nine-year-old having his fourth crack at the race. Started at 100-1 when ninth last year and will be a similar price this time.

Brambles – 7

One of two Peter Moody runners and has run some decent trials here and at Caulfield. May lack a turn of foot and a wide draw will not help his cause.

Mr O’Ceirin – 5

Not much to recommend this one, a doubtful stayer without a victory this season. Best effort when second to Moriarty at Eagle Farm in May.

Au Revoir – 6

Trained in France by Andre Fabre and ran a fair trial when third in the recent Moonee Valley Cup. Not the highest class raider from France in recent seasons and poorly drawn in barrier 23.

Lidari – 7

Stable companion of Brambles and a very similar profile. Tightly matched with that horse on form behind Lucia Valentina and Admire Rakti but has fared better in the draw in barrier 10.

Opinion – 6

Another entry for Chris Waller and struggling for form recently. Formerly with Sir Michael Stoute in England and ran well behind Junoob in the Metropolitan.

Araldo – 6

Only a length and a half behind Admire Rakti at Caulfield. Previously third to Junoob but connections will have been devastated to see him drawn widest of all in barrier 24.

Lucia Valentina – 8

Winner of the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes and third to Admire Rakti in the Caulfield Cup. Was ridden from off the pace that day and unproven over the distance but should get a good position from barrier 2.

Unchain My Heart – 4

Comfortably held by several of these on form and a serious contender for last place.

Signoff – 6

Emphatically beat Big Memory to win the Lexus Stakes on Saturday and earn his place in the field. Shocking was the last horse to complete the Lexus/Melbourne Cup double in 2009.

Forecast

  1. Fawkner 10-1 Sportsbet
  2. Mutual Regard 10-1 Luxbet
  3. Admire Rakti 4-1 Tom Waterhouse
  4. Lucia Valentina 7-1 Sportingbet

Admire Rakti tops final 24 for Melbourne Cup

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Saturday’s Lexus Stakes saw the final pieces of the jigsaw fall into place for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup.

All but one of the runners involved still held an outside chance of making the final Cup field and it went to Signoff. Shocking proved that it is possible to win both races in 2009 and Maluckyday almost pulled it off when second to Americain the following year.

There were 38 stayers still in contention for a place for the $6.2 million Group 1 race on Saturday morning but the final 24 are now officially known and the draw was made on Saturday.

As expected, Japan’s Admire Rakti (barrier 8) will carry top weight of 58.5kg after his brilliant win in the Caulfield Cup. Connections had briefly considered bypassing the race in favour of the Japan Cup but a 0.5kg seems entirely justified. The seven-year-old jumped to the head of the market after that win, deposing the German stayer Protectionist who went into many notebooks when finishing well in fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. The Group 2 Prix Kergorlay winner will start from barrier 11 and is the mount of Ryan Moore.

Last year’s Caulfield Cup winner Fawkner (barrier 9) is also popular with punters and he remains solid in the market following his brave second to Adelaide in the Cox Plate. Ed Dunlop’s globetrotting Red Cadeaux (barrier 15) is back for a fourth run in the race while Godolphin are quietly confident that Cavalryman (drawn 3) and Willing Foe (17) both have great chances of ending their long wait to win the big race.

There has been steady support for Ireland’s Mutual Regard (drawn 12) in recent weeks. The Ebor winner is trained by former top jockey Johnny Murtagh who only hung up his riding boots last season. Damien Oliver has the ride on this one.

Marco Botti is forced to rely on Seismos (1) following the enforced withdrawal of Dandino while Murtagh also runs 2012 Irish St Leger winner Royal Diamond (6). The home team also have hopes with Chris Waller’s Metropolitan winner Junoob (7) and proven stayer Who Shot Thebarman (13). Confidence is also growing behind Lucia Valentina (barrier 2) who was third at Caulfield while Peter Moody saddles the consistent Lidari (10) and Brambles (21).

John Gosden’s Gatewood (22) gets into the field this year after returning to the UK following an unsuccessful spell in training in Australia. My Ambivalent (4) is unproven over the distance but is a classy middle-distance trained by Roger Varian while Andre Fabre’s Au Revoir (23) has sneaked in almost under the radar. The four-year-old son of Singspiel was third at Moonee Valley last week.

Ante-post tip: Mutual Regard at 20-1 (best price now 11.0 Sportsbet)

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Preview

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The star names may be missing but Saturday night at the Breeders’ Cup is always special and drama is virtually guaranteed.

The first realistic European interest is in the Filly & Mare Turf where Sir Michael Stoute’s Dank bids to win the race for the second successive year. She was in irresistible form this time last season but has only managed two moderate outings this term and she makes little appeal at odds of around 9-4. If anyone can get her back to her best it will be Stoute but I prefer to look elsewhere for value. The one that could spring a surprise is the front-running Dayatthespa who could get a soft lead with so many hold-up horses in the field.

Another horse that could go wire-to-wire is Reneesgotzip in the Turf Sprint. The mare was only just beaten by Mizdirection last year in this race and was third behind the same rival in 2012. Her build-up suggests that trainer Peter Miller has only had one race on his mind for the daughter of City Zip.

It’s a bold move by Aidan O’Brien to send over The Great War for the Juvenile Dirt but Todd Pletcher saddles two highly promising colts in Daredevil and Carpe Diem. There aren’t really any form lines to tie the two up so Carpe Diem’s proven ability to handle the surface gives him the nod.

Telescope looks to have everything in his favour in the Turf as he should relish the quicker surface. It has taken some smart animals to lower his colours this season, notably Noble Mission and Taghrooda. Flintshire looks the man threat to Telescope on form after his fine run in the Arc but I am not convinced that he wants it quite as quick as this. The O’Brien team must be disappointed that Magician didn’t make the line-up this year due to injury and I’m siding with his conqueror Hardest Core to upset the Europeans.

Toronado falls into a similar category as Telescope in that he should find things in his favour and has much the best form in the race. He has had a light campaign so should not fail through fitness but his odds are not tempting and I’m going to have a little on The Aga Khan’s Veda. She looked like winning last time but may just have blown up in the closing stages and could have been primed for this race. She was second in the French 1000 Guineas in the spring and is entitled to go well.

The Classic features the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont and yet neither California Chrome nor Tonalist start favourite. That honour goes to Shared Belief who is unbeaten and comfortably beat UK hope Toast Of New York previously. I liked the way Tonalist travelled last time and he makes more appeal at 6-1 in what should be a thrilling finale.

Dayatthespa (Filly & Mare Turf) @9-1 Paddy Power

Reneesgotzip (Turf Sprint) @11-2 Coral

Carpe Diem (Juvenile Dirt) @7-2 Coral

Hardest Core (Turf) @11-1 BetVictor

Veda (Mile) @10-1 Bet365

Tonalist (Classic) @6-1 Coral

Myer Classic Preview

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The last of four Group 1 races at Flemington on Saturday is the $500,000 Myer Classic with a maximum field of 16 headed by Sweet Idea.

Gai Waterhouse trains the tough daughter of Snitzel who refused to be passed in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield last time. Although that was only a Group 2, it does look the best form on offer here and several of her vanquished rivals are back for another crack at her here.

The bookmakers have installed Tristarc fourth May’s Dream as the favourite to gain her revenge. She came from well off the pace and was forced to run wide into the straight but never looked like landing a blow. Darren Weir trains the filly who won the Australasian Oaks and will start from barrier 11 while Sweet Idea is in the inside berth. That seems to set up a similar scenario to Caulfield with Sweet Idea likely to play “catch me if you can”.

Tommy Berry will try to make every post a winning one on the four-year-old who already has two Group 2 races under her belt. She came close to Group 1 success when runner-up in the Memsie Stakes and fourth in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes.

Chris Waller’s Catkins was beaten by her stablemate Red Tracer in this race last year but looks well held on third in the Tristarc. Damien Oliver has the ride on the daughter of Dubawi who had a perfect position to launch a challenge that day and there cannot have been any real excuses.

Girl Guide finished in second place and had a good sight of the leader from a long way out without being able to close her down. The Robert Smerdon-trained Politeness finished well to take fourth and connections are convinced that she will improve with a more even gallop. The unplaced Diamond Drille and Enquare will struggle to get involved in the finish but the one that caught my eye was Girl In Flight.

The grey does not have particularly inspiring form figures but ran on well in the home straight under hands and heels. She was always running into a pocket and could arguably have finished third with a clear passage. Kerrin McEvoy takes the ride on her but she has received a terrible draw in barrier 17. She is showing at around 40-1 on the Tote as a result and could be one for a little each-way on the day.

Solicit has fared much better in barrier five for local trainers Matthew Ellerton and Simon Zahra. She got no run at all in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap and is better judged on her second to Dear Demi in the Group 2 Stocks Stakes at Moonee Valley.

Sweet Idea @6.50 Sportsbet

Girl In Flight @21.0 Bet365 Non runner

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

Coolmore Stud Stakes Preview

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The Group 1 action at Flemington on Saturday begins with the Coolmore Stud Stakes in which Rich Enuff bids to regain the winning thread after his narrow defeat in the Caulfield Guineas.

Ken Key’s son of Written Tycoon was just run down in the closing stages by Shooting To Win after making most of the running over 1600m. The colt won his first three races in great style this spring including the Group 2 Danehill Stakes over 1200m. He was stepped up to 1400m next time in the Guineas Prelude and recorded another impressive victory but there were still a few concerns about the extended trip at Caulfield.

He is a naturally free-running colt and Michael Rodd had trouble settling him in the Guineas. He used up a lot of energy early in the race and did not quite last home. Rich Enuff has drawn barrier 10 but that is not a problem on the straight course. Barriers 8 and 9 have been the most successful in this race in the past and the only slight concern is whether the Guineas has left its mark on Rich Enuff. There has been no sign of it in his work which has been described as brilliant by connections. His form is outstanding and he is the one to beat here.

Gerald Ryan’s Rubick won the Group 2 Schillaci Stakes last time out and will start from barrier one under Kerrin McEvoy. John O’Shea’s Godolphin filly Earthquake is in the next barrier with James McDonald in the saddle. She is one of three fillies in the race and is yet to finish out of the money in eight starts. The famous blue colours will also be carried by Ghibellines.

Chris Waller’s Brazen Beau could be a danger having finished runner-up in the Group 1 J.J. Atkins Stakes. He then finished fifth in the Danehill so will have to improve to reverse the form with Rich Enuff. Earthquake is joined by Eloping and Bring Me The Maid as the fairer sex attempt to upset the boys in the sprinting division.

Eloping was third in the Group 2 McEwen Stakes behind Angelic Light and Lankan Rupee. She has since won the Group 3 Champagne Stakes and Listed Blue Sapphire Stakes and starts from barrier 12 under Stephen Baster. The dark horse of the race could be Joseph Pride’s Kuro who has won his last four races in Sydney. These included the Listed Brian Crowley Stakes but this is a step up in class.

Craig Williams rides Scissor Kick, trained by Paul Messara. He is tough and consistent and finished runner-up in the Group 1 Golden Rose over 1400m but is equally effective over this trip. He could be the each-way value but Rich Enuff looks the one to be on.

Rich Enuff @3.20 Ladbrokes

Lexus Stakes Preview

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Saturday’s Group 3 Lexus Stakes is the last chance for horses to book their place in the line-up for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. The race carries automatic qualification for the winner and all bar one of the runners still hold an entry in the big race.

Andrew Balding was forced to withdraw Side Glance from the Mackinnon Stakes with an injury but could still pick up a nice prize with Lord Van Percy. The four-year-old made his Australian debut in the Herbert Power Stakes earlier this month when he was a staying-on fifth behind Big Memory.

Kerrin McEvoy had his first ride on the gelding that day and he will have learned a great deal from the race. Lord Van Percy pulled hard early on and then had to switch wide into the home turn to make his run. He never looked like troubling the leaders but was only a length and a quarter behind Protectionist at the line. That horse was all the rage for the Melbourne Cup afterwards.

Big Memory held off Signoff by half a length and most pundits expect the form to be reversed here. That is down to Big Memory’s penalty plus the fact that he made no impression in the Caulfield Cup. To be fair, Tony McEvoy’s runner had a terrible draw that day and will find it much easier to get into a rhythm here.

Lord Van Percy, formerly “Van Percy” but renamed to race in Australia, has always been a decent handicapper in the UK. As a three-year-old he travelled well into his races but didn’t always find as much off the bridle as expected. He has raced in a hood for most of his career but seems more resilient this season, battling on well to beat Havana Cooler for a decent prize at Goodwood.

He followed that with a terrific run in the Ebor Handicap when second to Mutual Regard. The winner is a strong Irish fancy for Tuesday’s Cup and Lord Van Percy could well give the form a boost on Saturday. Lord Van Percy is part-owned by OTI Racing who almost won the Melbourne Cup with Luca Cumani’s Bauer in 2008.

Signoff also ran well in the Group 3 David Jones Cup and was under pressure a long way out in the Herbert Power. I just feel that McEvoy will be able to keep his mount closer to the pace this time and use his turn of foot to good effect.

Another horse familiar to UK racing fans is Caravan Rolls On who used to be in the care of Peter Chapple-Hyam. He won the Group 3 Geelong Cup last week but is still not certain of a place in Tuesday’s field so has one more crack at it on Saturday. Craig Williams has been booked to ride the seven-year-old who will start from barrier one. Shocking achieved the Lexus/Melbourne Cup double in 2009 but it is certainly a tall order.

Lord Van Percy @7-1 Bet365 Non-runner

Caravan Rolls On @9-1 Sportsbet