Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Victoria Derby Preview

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The $1.5million Victoria Derby has attracted a maximum field at Flemington on Saturday but that has not stopped punters piling in to back the Gai Waterhouse-trained Hampton Court.

Waterhouse trained the winner of this race back in 1995 with Nothin’ Leica Dane and Hampton Court has followed a very similar route. Both horses won the Group 1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick prior to coming here and the Melbourne Cup winning trainer is typically bullish about his prospects.

His victory over First Seal and Sweynesse certainly reads well with the latter running a decent race to finish eighth behind Adelaide in the Cox Plate last weekend. Hampton Court is by Redoute’s Choice and this will be a new trip for him. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy will also have to plot a passage through this large field from barrier eleven. McEvoy has never ridden a Victoria Derby winner and this will be his first ride on Hampton Court so there are reasons for opposing the short-priced favourite.

Damien Oliver has won this race four times and will fancy his chances aboard Preferment from barrier 6. The colt is still a maiden after six races but Chris Waller has fitted the blinkers for Saturday following his narrow defeat by Nozomi in the Geelong Classic.

One of the best trials for this race was the Group 2 Moonee Valley Vase won by Moonovermanhattan. Craig Newitt faces a similar problem to McEvoy from barrier twelve but his mount overcame a wide draw to win last time and likes to be up with the pace. He was always tracking the leaders in the Vase and kept on well up the straight. He should confirm placings with the New-Zealand trained Atmosphere who was a length and three-quarters away in second but the unlucky horse was Bondeiger.

Danny O’Brien trains the War Pass colt who was shuffled back early on in the Vase. He attempted to make up ground turning for home but was almost brought to a standstill on the bend when colliding with a rival. It was to his credit that he stayed on again to be beaten only four lengths in seventh place. He is drawn in barrier 1 with Atmosphere in barrier 4 and I fancy his chances of turning the tables on that one.

Bondeiger had won his previous two starts and has been well supported this week in anticipation of a bold showing. I think it will be difficult to keep Moonovermanhattan out of the frame despite his draw and both he and Bondeiger represent good each-way chances against the favourite.

Moonovermanhattan @8-1 Ladbrokes

Bondeiger @9-1 Bet365

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4

Breeders’ Cup Friday Preview

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The Breeders’ Cup starts at Santa Anita on Friday with four Grade 1 races. The meeting has come in for some criticism this year for its failure to attract the big names, although injury and retirement have contributed to that. Rather like the recent Champions’ Day at Ascot, the meeting is sure to provide some excellent racing even if it is unlikely to be the stuff of legends.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is the first of the big events and there is every reason to anticipate a European-trained winner here. The favourite is Wesley Ward’s Hootenanny who has already plundered the UK to take a Royal Ascot prize. He has since been beaten in France in very soft ground and now steps up to a mile for the first time.

He has the best form on show but I have reservation about him over this trip and am siding with the Charles Hills-trained Commemorative. This attractive colt has won a couple of races the hard way, battling away to win his maiden at Doncaster before making all at Newmarket. The form of his most recent success has taken a knock with the runner-up running poorly since but Commemorative strikes me as the sort to keep a bit to himself.

Charles Hills won at this meeting a year ago with the sadly ill-fated Chriselliam and it would great for him to go back and do it again this year. Aidan O’Brien’s War Envoy is also entitled to respect having finished within a length of the winner in a Group 1 in France last time. Aktabantay was not far behind for Hugo Palmer but it was one of those messy races where they finish in a heap and I’m not convinced by the form.

The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile looks booked for Goldencents for the second year running. He recently broke a track record over seven furlongs and was also beaten a nose over six. His form looks better than anything his rivals can offer here in a disappointing renewal.

Wesley Ward also has a good chance in the Juvenile Fillies Turf with Sunset Glow. UK racing fans may remember this filly chasing home Cursory Glance at Royal Ascot and she has gone on to win twice at Del Mar. Osaila was hugely favoured by the race conditions when winning one of those obscenely rewarded sales races last time but has a few lengths to make up on Sunset Glow.

The Distaff brings down the curtain on day 1 for the Breeders’ Cup races and I like the chances of Bob Baffert’s Tiz Midnight here at an each-way price. She has to improve to beat Close Hatches but that one ran a shocker last time when beaten at 1-5 so I’ll take a chance on the more lightly-raced filly.

Commemorative 9.25 @10-1 Ladbrokes

Goldencents 10.05 @5-4 Bet365

Sunset Glow 10.50 @100-30 Skybet

Tiz Midnight 11.35 @10-1 Betfair

Mackinnon Stakes Preview

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There are four Group 1 races on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday including the $1million Mackinnon Stakes.

A year ago Andrew Balding’s Side Glance claimed the prize with a gutsy run, holding off Dear Demi by three-quarters of a length. The seven-year-old is rapidly becoming as well-known in Australia as he is in the UK after finishing third in the Caulfield Stakes and fourth in last week’s Cox Plate.

His run in the Cox Plate was typical in that he kept battling on when looking certain to be swamped by those finishing in behind. At the line he was barely half a length behind Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide on the wide outside. Included in a group of eight that crossed the line within a length were Foreteller, Happy Trails and Criterion.

You could make a case for each of them but the draw has favoured Side Glance (barrier 7) while Foreteller (10) and Happy Trails (13) must come from his outside. Criterion finished second in the Caulfield Stakes but I’m not sure that barrier one will suit him. He seems to hit a flat spot in his races before running on again and he may find himself trapped on the inner. Foreteller kept responding to pressure and has to be a contender if he can get a good position from the starting gate.

He’s Your Man is bidding for a hat-trick after winning the  Kingston Town Stakes and the Epsom Handicap. The six-year-old will break from barrier five and is an obvious threat while Caulfield Cup runner-up Rising Romance will also be popular with punters.

Jamie Spencer is at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup this weekend so the ride on Side Glance goes to Craig Williams. He won the Mackinnon Stakes on Alcopop in 2012 and there is no better judge of pace around Flemington.

I would have fancied Roger Varian’s Farraaj to run a big race with a low draw but he is on the wide outside in barrier 15. Adelaide managed to overcome a similar handicap last week but Farraaj is much more of a free-running type and won’t be ideally suited by dropping in behind.

Mick Channon did well with Amralah to win nice races at Newbury and Haydock and he now makes his Australian debut for Robert Hickmott. His Haydock win over Hillstar reads well after the runner-up won the Grade 1 Canadian International Stakes at Woodbine. The Melbourne Cup was his intended target but he is yet to prove that he stays that distance.

Foreteller @11.0 Sportsbet

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3

*Side Glance was withdrawn through injury

Lingfield Thursday Preview

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Nabatean kept our noses in front at Nottingham on Wednesday and the flat racing switches to the all-weather tomorrow for a valuable card at Lingfield.

My regular followers will know that I am always keen on Newmarket maiden form but the 1.20 sets a bit of a poser with two promising with form from HQ. William Haggas saddles Sharqeyih, second to 50-1 shot Irish Rookie on her debut in a big field. She stayed on well without being given a hard time and is a nicely-bred daughter of Shamardal.

The big danger is Marco Botti’s Alfajer, equally promising when touched off by John Gosden’s Lady Correspondent. The race has split into two divisions and I would quite happily have backed them both if they hadn’t landed in the same heat! I may be clutching at straws here but Colorada finished closer to Alfajer on her debut than she did to Sharqeyih so I am going to side with the Haggas filly.

The longest race of the day is the Listed River Eden Fillies’ Stakes at 3.20 over a mile and five furlongs. Godolphin won it last year with Speckled who is back for another try but the money has been pouring on stable companion Hidden Gold. I watched the latter when she was thrashed by Rocket Ship at Pontefract in August and I would not have considered her for a race like this at the time. However, she went from last to first under hands and heels here last time out and has clearly improved.

Kikonga has been slightly disappointing this season and was beaten here a year ago while Tamasha is taking a big step up in class after winning easily at Salisbury. It may be one of those occasions when it is wise to follow the money.

Andrew Balding has provided this column with four winners in as many days and bids to extend the sequence with Intransigent. He won a shade cosily in a very valuable race at Ascot at the start of the month and meets disappointing favourite Prince’s Trust on 2lbs better terms here. He did put in one moderate run at Goodwood but has a touch of class about him and the stable are flying at present.

I have looked at the form for the Fleur De Lys Fillies’ Stakes inside out and upside down but cannot form a strong opinion. Water Hole comes out best on official figures but this is her sixth race in a reasonably short period. Dutch Rose was unlucky last time out but all of her wins have been at seven furlongs while Gifted Girl wouldn’t be out of it with the blinkers left off. She may be the best value in a really tricky race.

Sharqeyih 1.20 @10-9 Betfair

Gifted Girl 2.50 @12-1 Bet365

Hidden Gold 3.29 @9-4 Ladbrokes

Intransigent 3.50 @3-1 Bet365

Nottingham Wednesday Preview

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Betcirca followers got off to a flying start at Windsor on Tuesday with Navigate (4-7), Magic Dancer (10-11) and Geordan Murphy (100-30).  So Noble brought the winning streak to an end with a disappointing run but we move on to Nottingham on Wednesday and I’ve picked out three on the card.

The first one that catches my eye is Storm The Stars for William Haggas in the two-year-old maiden at 3.00. He was second at Newmarket on his debut to Aloft and that looks high-class form after Aidan O’Brien’s colt finished second in the Racing Post Trophy at the weekend.

It is true that five horses finished within a length in the Newmarket race but the form should easily be good enough to win a maiden at Nottingham. The main danger could come from John Gosden’s unraced Golden Horn a son of Cape Cross. His dam never raced and Storm The Stars has experience on his side.

The handicap at 3.30 is fascinating, if only because it sees two unbeaten colts pitched in after just one race. Lightning Spear won a Kempton maiden over a year ago but trainer Olly Stevens has been unable to get him back on the track. I know that he has missed some ambitious entries in recent weeks so he is presumably regarded as more than an 85-rated horse at home.

As tempting as he is, the 426-day lay-off puts me off just enough to side with John Gosden’s Dubai Star. He made his debut at Pontefract with Robert Havlin on board while William Buick partnered stable companion and hot favourite Fallen In Line. Buick was pushing the head off his mount after a couple of furlongs while Havlin cruised along behind the leaders before easing clear to win by six lengths.

The form of the race isn’t worth the paper that it is written on but he could do no more than win and is rated 84 for his handicap debut. He clearly handles softer ground and is race-fit so gets the vote over Lightning Spear.

The third selection is Andrew Balding’s Nabatean in the staying handicap at 4.00. The Balding team have done us a few favours recently and this one looks like making up into a decent stayer next season. He was racing after a lengthy absence when fifth in a very competitive handicap at Newmarket last time. He was confidently backed that day and it looks like he will be popular with punters again on Wednesday.

Storm The Stars 3.00 @4-7 Betfair

Dubai Star 3.30 @5-2 BetVictor

Nabatean 4.00 @3-1 Bet365

Windsor Tuesday Preview

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A very nice 310-1 treble at Doncaster on Saturday courtesy of Code Red (11-1), Dungannon (8-1) and Elm Park (15-8). I hope that you were on but what happened to Emerahldz? Isn’t it just typical that Richard Fahey won the race with his second string.

Flat racing is doing its best to delay the onset of winter with the Breeders’ Cup later this week and I shall be previewing the big races in detail. In the meantime they are still racing on the level at Windsor and Tuesday’s card looks promising for favourite backers.

The action kicks off at 1.00 and Martyn Meade’s Navigate looks likely to go off at odds-on here. He ran a good race at York last time in a much better race won by Mutamakkin and had chief rival Nortron about five lengths behind in sixth. Andrew Balding’s runner was making his debut so should improve but Navigate was travelling like a winner at the furlong pole and should appreciate the shorter trip here.

Magic Dancer looks like another solid favourite in the second race. He is a son of Norse Dancer who some of you may remember was third in the 2000 Guineas and fourth in the Derby. I backed him each-way for the Derby and he looked as though he was sure to get placed but the trip just caught him out. Magic Dancer was beaten a nose on his debut but I am not quite sure how. I have watched the video several times and every time he looks like he’s won it.

We cannot desert the Balding stable after his Saturday double and Geordan Murphy was laughing at the opposition when winning here last time out. He could be let in lightly with a rating of 75 and has most to fear from Meade’s Solo Hunter. He also looked like he’d won at Chepstow last time but the photo finish revealed otherwise. Remind me never to bet on photo finishes!

In the 2.30 I am told that So Noble is still ahead of the handicapper with a 6lbs penalty. He did win with his ears pricked last time so there should be more in the locker. The danger has to be that man Fahey again with Rangi Chase who won easily in similar ground at Pontefract.

If we have put the blight on the favourites, my final selection of the day is for another course and distance winner in Dalgig. David Pipe will be bringing out his big guns for the new jumps season shortly but saddled an eight-length flat winner at Newbury at the weekend. Dalgig won easily last time and has a hood on here to prevent him from star-gazing in the closing stages. He’s actually lower in the weights if you take Mikey Ennis’s 7lbs claim into account and 8-1 was too good to miss.

Navigate 1.00 @4-6 Betfair

Magic Dancer 1.30 @10-11 Betfair

Geordan Murphy 2.00 @5-2 Bet Victor

So Noble 2.30 @13-8 Bet365

Dalgig 3.30 @8-1 Ladbrokes