Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Elm Park stars in 310-1 treble for Betcirca

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Andrew Balding’s Elm Park is a top price 20-1 for next season’s Epsom Derby after making all to win the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster on Saturday.

The racecard had looked tricky beforehand with the soft ground and large fields but three of our four selections won at accumulative odds of 310-1. The first to come home in front was Code Red in the Listed Doncaster Stakes for William Muir.

I felt that the favourite Portamento might be vulnerable in the ground and had been impressed by Code Red’s four-length win in a minor race at Nottingham recently. Early odds of 11-1 were soon snapped up and he returned the 11-2 winner after catching the Godolphin runner inside the final furlong.

On a day when trainer Richard Fahey had four winners, it was his Emerahldz that let us down in the mile and half handicap, fading into seventh behind 14-1 stable companion Latenightrequest. The set-back proved to be temporary as our old friend Dungannon landed our 8-1 tip in the sprint against 18 rivals. I must have written as much about this gelding as I have about any flat racer in recent years and he gave us another pay day in beating Ajjaadd and Demora quite comfortably.

The final leg was his stable mate Elm Park, already a favourite of mine after tipping him successfully in his previous two races. He never looked in any trouble as he led from start to finish to beat Aloft and Celestial Path. The bookmakers quoted odds varying between 10-1 and 20-1 and I have to say that the latter is tempting.

As I mentioned in my Saturday preview, the Racing Post Trophy has a fine record for producing Derby winners with Reference Point, Authorized, Motivator, High Chaparral and Camelot the latest in a long line of dual winners. Kingston Hill won this race impressively a year ago and went on to finish second in the Derby before winning the St Leger for Roger Varian.

Elm Park does not look anything other than a middle distance horse in the making and I would be very surprised if Balding contemplated a tilt at the 2000 Guineas. I am happy to re-invest a little of Saturday’s profits on the colt for the Derby. Our 20-1 Melbourne Cup tip Mutual Regard is now a best price of 12-1 and we also have the Breeders’ Cup to look forward to.

Elm Park 2015 Epsom Derby @20-1 Ladbrokes

Newbury Saturday Preview

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UK punters are spoiled for choice on Saturday with top class flat racing action at Doncaster and Newbury plus excellent National Hunt cards at Chepstow and Aintree. The going is soft at Newbury and that is certain to be a key factor on a tricky-looking card.

The opening race only has six runners but you could make a case for each of them. Lexington Times is the form pick but he has not lived up to the form of his win in a Newmarket maiden in July. He won a race that contained no fewer than eight subsequent winners. They include the high-class Latharnach, Basateen and Snoano.

He ran well enough when third to Aktabantay at Sandown but could manage only eighth behind Bond’s Girl at Doncaster last time. It is difficult to know how good Not So Sleepy might be after he quickened away from She Is No Lady on his debut. The son of Beat Hollow travelled nicely throughout in the heavy ground and that could hold him in good stead here.

Battalion has been very disappointing this season and William Haggas is resorting to the cheek pieces after he threw away his chance in the September Stakes by hanging. I was amazed when punters wanted to be on this proven soft-ground horse here in May when the going was clearly too quick for him. He has his conditions on Saturday but he still has a point to prove.

His main danger could be the Epsom Derby fifth Red Galileo, the mount of Graham Lee. He has finished fast in second at Doncaster and Newmarket and is finally learning to settle in his races. I have been very impressed with Lee’s riding this season and he will be looking to arrive late on the scene. Red Galileo just gets the vote because he seems a bit more trustworthy than Battalion.

The two-year-old fillies’ race at 2.50 looks wide open. Shagah is the form horse here having finished close up in the May Hill behind Agnes Stewart. That filly did the form no harm when second in the Dubai Fillies’ Mile last week. Shagah was fourth behind Local Time earlier this month and it may be worth taking a chance with something less exposed.

Silver Rainbow and Muffri’Ha both won impressively on their second outing. They have very similar profiles in that they both tend to pull very hard but stormed clear once given the go-ahead. It won’t be so easy in this higher grade but Muffri’Ha’s win was on softer ground and she is the selection.

Not So Sleepy 1.50 @4-1 Paddy Power

Red Galileo 2.20 @11-2 Paddy Power

Muffri’Ha 2.50 @5-1 Bet365

Doncaster Saturday Preview

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It is Racing Post Trophy day at Doncaster on Saturday with Elm Park bidding to underline his claims for next season’s Derby.

The race, formerly known as the Futurity Stakes, has been a great guide to the classics over the years. The history of the race is littered with names like Reference Point, Authorized, Motivator, High Chaparral and Camelot. The last two on that list were trained by Aidan O’Brien who also saddled St Nicholas Abbey to win this race. He is represented by Jacobean and Aloft, neither of who appear to have sufficient form to win this.

Jacobean ran on to take second on his debut while Aloft won narrowly at Newmarket. Andrew Balding’s Elm Park has 9lbs in hand on official figures following his win in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes. Things did not go entirely smoothly that day as he was bumped leaving the stalls and looked in trouble two furlongs out. Perhaps the ground was a little quick for him and he has already shown that he can handle the soft when powering home at Newbury. Having tipped him at Salisbury and Newmarket, I cannot desert him here.

The going was very testing on Friday with some two-year-olds stopping to almost a walk in the early maiden races. Andrew Balding could also be on target in the sprint with our old friend Dungannon. He helped us out at Ascot last time when winning by a short-head in similar ground and he bids to win this race for the second year in succession.

He is only 1lb higher in the ratings and my main concern is his low draw. The runners may favour the stands side if the going becomes too testing and that would leave Dungannon on wrong side.

More favourably drawn is South African import Counter Ridge, trained by Marco Botti. She almost belied of odds of 66-1 when runner-up here last month and is a bit of an unknown quantity if you’re looking for a lively outsider.

I will also be looking for some each-way value in the 2.10 race. Portamento won an egg-and-spoon race last time and looks vulnerable. Nothing went right for Manofmanytalents last time out at York and he did well to finish as close as he did behind Mattmu. However, I am not entirely convinced that he will like this ground and will side with easy Nottingham winner Code Red.

Knife Point has solid form in the mile and a quarter handicap for Hugo Palmer. He finished fourth to shock winner Farquhar at Newmarket but it is anybody’s guess whether he will handle the ground. That won’t be a concern for Emerahldz who has won on heavy at Beverley for Richard Fahey.

Code Red 2.10 @11-1 BetVictor

Emerahldz 2.40 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Dungannon 3.15 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Elm Park 3.50 @15-8 Bet365

Melbourne Cup Update

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The final field is gradually taking shape for the Melbourne Cup and the favourite Admire Rakti has been given the go-ahead despite picking up a 0.5kg penalty for winning the Caulfield Cup. Owner Riichi Kondo had warned that he may divert the horse to the Japan Cup if he received a penalty but those fears were allayed on Tuesday.

The last horse to successfully carry 58.5kg in the race was Think Big in 1975. Only Kingston Town in 1982 and Vintage Crop in 1995 have managed to carry such a large weight into a place since then. Connections cannot really complain as this is the lowest penalty given to the Caulfield Cup winner since Ming Dynasty in 1980.

Godolphin’s quest for a first Melbourne Cup success has been well documented and they have finished runner-up three times. This year’s hopes rest with the veteran Cavalryman and last year’s Ebor winner Willing Foe, both trained by Saeed bin Suroor.

Cavalryman could do no better than twelfth in 2012 but he has seemed better than ever this season. Craig Williams will take the ride on him with James McDonald partnering Willing Foe. A notable European absentee is Marco Botti’s Dandino who finished fifth last year. He missed his intended run in the Caulfield Cup through lameness and has not recovered in time to take his place. The stable will now rely on Seismos who was well beaten at Caulfield.

In last week’s Caulfield Cup Review we picked out Mutual Regard as the best of the European challengers and Damien Oliver has been booked for the ride. The Irish-trained gelding has not run since winning the valuable Ebor Handicap at York in the summer but runs well fresh and could provide former top jockey Johnny Murtagh with the biggest win of his fledgling training career.

The Group 3 Geelong Cup proved a farcical affair with a stop-go gallop but it eventually went to Caravan Rolls On, formerly trained by Peter Chapple-Hyam in England. Now with Danny O’Brien, he is very unlikely to get into the race at Flemington. Connections are hoping that he receives a 2kg penalty to boost his chances of sneaking in.

Junoob will still take his chance in the Cup despite finishing only seventh at Caulfield. He was pushed up early on to try to overcome a wide draw but ending up racing wide and did well to plug on into seventh place. Trainer Chris Waller is still chasing a first win in the great race.

Andreas Wohler’s German stayer Protectionist is still all the rage after his eye-catching run into fourth in the Herbert Power Stakes. Ryan Moore has the ride on the Group 2 winner and will be hoping for better luck than he has experienced on Mount Athos (2012) and Dandino last year. The market could get a further shake-up after Fawkner runs in the Cox Plate on Saturday.

*Ante-post Mutual Regard 20-1 Paddy Power

Manikato Stakes Preview

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As well as the Cox Plate, Moonee Valley also stages the $1million Manikato Stakes this weekend with twelve horses set to go to post on Friday evening. The race looks like a virtual re-run of the Moir Stakes with the first four home back in action.

The seven-year-old Buffering beat Lankan Rupee by a short-head with Rebel Dane the same distance away in third. Angelic Light was just three-quarters of a length away in fourth in a blanket finish.

Trainer Robert Heathcote expressed his satisfaction at the draw on Tuesday with Buffering in barrier four while his main market rivals are on his outside. Lankan Rupee will break from barrier nine with Terravista in seven. Terravista was a comfortable two length winner of the Group 2 The Shorts  last time out but is taking a rise in class. He also came from off the pace last time so it will be interesting to see if he can get to a fast-starter like Buffering.

The bookmakers surprisingly make Terravista the early favourite with Lankan Rupee also preferred to Buffering in the early exchanges. Lankan Rupee was heralded as the next big Aussie superstar after winning three Group 1 races on the bounce. He beat Rebel Dane and Buffering with some ease in the TJ Smith Stakes but has struggled to recapture that form.

He was a 1-5 favourite on his return from a lengthy absence when beaten by Angelic Light here in September. That defeat was blamed on being a little ring-rusty and he was confidently expected to atone last time. Craig Newitt appeared comfortable tracking Buffering into the home turn, taking a peek to his outside to see where any possible danger might come from. Once let down, he did not find the acceleration that had been expected and it was Rebel Dane that finished the stronger in third.

Connections were boosted by a brilliant track gallop at Caulfield on Saturday morning but a wide draw must be a concern. He broke from Buffering’s inside last time but allowed the winner to take the lead. Heathcote does not believe that even Lankan Rupee has the pace to cross Buffering but Newitt will be under pressure to play his cards earlier this time. Rebel Dane must again have solid place claims but he does not get his head in front very often these days. He is drawn alongside Buffering and Craig Williams will try not to give him too much rope.

Buffering @6.00 Sportsbet*

*Sportsbet Special Offer – stakes refunded on your first bet on Manikato Stakes if your horse finishes second (up to $100)

Cox Plate Preview

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The $3million Group 1 Cox Plate takes place at Moonee Valley Racecourse this Saturday. Sportsbet are repeating their generous Caulfield Cup offer of refunding stakes if your horse finishes 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the big race.

The favourite is the Robert Hickmott-trained Fawkner who looks to have drawn nicely in barrier four. He is bidding to become the first seven-year-old to win the race since Makybe Diva in 2005, coincidentally from the same stall. Racing in the familiar Lloyd Williams colours, the son of Reset claimed the Caulfield Cup last year when holding off the fast finishing Dandino.

He chalked up another Group 1 victory when beating Criterion in the Caulfield Stakes last time out. That was over the same distance as Saturday’s race and he has to be respected. The form of the Caulfield Stakes is often a good guide here and the first five are all in the field.

Side Glance has been a good money-spinner for the Andrew Balding stable and set a leisurely pace before quickening up turning for home. Fawkner always had him in his sights and held off the late run of Criterion with Sacred Falls catching the eye in fourth. Zac Purton may have ridden a fine race in the Caulfield Cup but he did not cover himself in glory on Sacred Falls. He was well out of his ground on the turn for home and will surely keep closer to the pace on Saturday. Barrier nine is not ideal but he must go well.

The biggest sufferer in the draw was Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide who is in the thirteen stall. He won the Group 1 Secretariat Stakes at Arlington and ran well when third to Ectot in France last time. He looked unlucky that day but the winner did not advertise the form in the Arc and it is going to take a mighty effort to win from the outside.

Sacred Falls is trained by Chris Waller who also saddles Foreteller and Royal Descent. Foreteller looks held having finished eighth at Caulfield while Royal Descent has finished runner-up in her last four races. She is partnered by Glen Boss from barrier three and should run her usual game race. Fawkner and Sacred Falls look the big two here with Adelaide’s chances depending on how he copes with his wide berth.

Sacred Falls @6.00 Sportsbet*

*Special bet – stakes refunded up to a maximum $100 if 2nd, 3rd or 4th