Category: Horse Racing Tips

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Caulfield Cup 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The draw for Saturday’s Caulfield Cup has delivered a huge blow to the hopes of last year’s runner-up Dandino by pitching him into the outside barrier.

Craig Williams had been hopeful that the Melbourne Cup fifth would go one better at Caulfield this year with maximum confidence emanating from the Marco Botti stable. Dandino almost overcame a wide draw a year ago when flashing home in second from barrier 16 behind Fawkner. Everything has gone perfectly in his preparation but Williams will now have to ride the race of his life to get the seven-year-old home in front.

Craig Newitt faces a different set of problems aboard the stables other runner, Seismos. The son of Dalakhani beat Willing Foe by a neck in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes at Newbury last time out and he has drawn the one barrier. Newitt will have to decide whether to try to hold his position on the inside or tuck in behind and hope that he does not get shuffled too far back.

Japanese top weight Admire Rakti has fared much better with barrier eight but this looks like a prep run for the Melbourne Cup. The two favourites to take the $3 million prize on Saturday are Lucia Valentina (drawn 12) and the other Japanese hope Bande (drawn 10). Lucia Valentina’s claims are obvious after her win in the Turnbull Stakes but she was beaten on her only previous start at this distance.

She beat French import Lidari in that race and the runner-up has sneaked in on the withdrawal of My Ambivalent at the eleventh hour. A fine draw in barrier four has further boosted confidence in Luke Nolen’s mount who is a proven stayer. There was only a whisker between he and Brambles in that race but the latter is only a reserve and would be drawn wide if sneaking in.

Horses that fared less well in the draw include Sea Moon and The Offer, drawn 21 and 19 respectively. Christophe Lemaire rides Bande with the intention apparently to race from the front on the four-year-old. Bande was only a neck behind Admire Rakti in a Grade 2 race at Hanshin in March and is marginally better off at the weights.

The Japanese were extremely disappointed at the failure of their strong raid on the prestigious Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe and are aiming to restore some International pride with a big win in Australia.

Chris Waller saddles up four runners led by Metropolitan winner Junoob from gate 15. That draw may not be unsurmountable and he looks to have a better chance than Hawkspur (9), Moriarty (7) and Who Shot Thebarman (16).

Lidari @16.0 bet365

Bande @9.0 Sportsbet*

*Sportsbet special offer – money back as a free bet up to $100 on first bet if 2nd, 3rd or 4th

York Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

You can tell when the turf season is coming to a close when the races are being won by horses that were beaten by half the length of the street last time out! Old Town Boy was beaten 32 lengths last time while Miami Carousel was beaten 14 lengths when last of six, yet both were good enough to win at York on Friday!

The change in the going plays a big part and the ground remains soft ahead of Saturday’s card. The action gets under way at 1.50 with a mile handicap for three-year-olds. Empress Ali was a 20-1 shot when beating Master Of Finance at Chester last time and can confirm the form on 2lbs worse terms. She has already won on heavy ground and is hard to fault after being in the first two in each of her last four starts.

First Flight will be a popular choice in the second race after chasing home Air Pilot at Newbury in soft ground. Richard Hughes gave him a lot to do that day but he overhauled all bar the well handicapped winner and the handicapper has only pushed him up 2lbs. The winner was ante-post favourite for the Cambridgeshire but missed the cut so this looks a gilt-edged opportunity for the Godolphin horse.

Charming Thought has been taken out of the 2.55 race which could leave the way clear for Bond’s Girl to follow up her Doncaster victory. She had two lengths to spare over Mattmu that day and meets that rival on the same terms. Mattmu ran a fine race to beat all bar Limato at Redcar last week but there seems no obvious reason for him to reverse Doncaster form.

Finding the winner of the Coral Sprint Trophy at 3.30 may be rather like looking for a needle in a haystack! Twenty battle-hardened sprinters line up for the six-furlong dash including a fascinating re-match between Spinatrix and Supplicant, first and second at Ripon in September. They also meet on the same terms while Seeking Magic is allowed 2lbs for his half a length fourth. Ryan Tate also claims 3lbs off his back but he has no form on soft ground.

One who won’t mind the ground is Aetna who looked unlucky last time at Newmarket when third to Secret Hint. She appeared to stumble when starting her run and never really saw daylight until it was too late. A course and distance winner on soft ground in May, she is the selection.

Empress Ali 1.50 @6-1 Coral

First Flight 2.20 @4-1 Boyle Sports

Bond’s Girl 2.50 @4-1 Bet365

Aetna 3.30 @4-1 Ladbrokes

Newmarket Saturday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Cesarewitch day card at Newmarket looks like being a thorough test of stamina for punters as well as the horses! As well as the 32-runner marathon, the seven-race card also features a 24-runner mile and a half handicap.

We have previewed the Cesarewitch separately and are hoping for a run for our money from Suegioo and Rhombus. The preceding race is just as taxing to work out with all sorts of interwoven form lines. I am hoping that I have unearthed a well weighted horse in Andrew Balding’s Nabatean.

The son of Rock Of Gibraltar was having only his fourth start when staying on into fourth behind Battersea at Ascot in July. He had previously got off the mark in a Lingfield maiden and was given a lot to do by David Probert, moving up from last place approaching the home turn. He has a lengthy absence to overcome but is 16lbs better off with the winner for four and a half lengths. That ought to give him a decent chance and Hayley Turner has landed the ride with just 8st 1lb to carry.

I have plenty of respect for Luca Cumani’s Connecticut who looked set to complete a four-timer at York before finding the mile and three-quarters just beyond him. He is well worth an each-way bet in a wide open contest.

The same colours are carried by stable mate Bartholomew Fair on the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at 2.05. He beat an ordinary field at Yarmouth easily last time but I think this race could produce a shock with both Future Empire and Order Of St George looking suspect. Future Empire was just beaten at Sandown in the Solario Stakes but a good sized horse blanket would have covered the first four home.

Order Of St George looks a very edgy type, although he did win his maiden by a street. I think Hail Clodius could also be under-rated. He thrashed Fieldsman here last time out and that horse has won twice since.

Each-way betting could also be the order of the day in the Listed race at 2.40 with nineteen fillies and mares going to post. I am reluctant to pass over Blue Waltz after she bolted up at Doncaster last time but she still has to improve to win this and better value may be found with This Is The Day. She won only a modest Brighton handicap before defying a big hike in the weights at Haydock and she could surprise a few here. Albasharah is probably the form horse if she repeats her excellent run at Yarmouth when second to Hadaatha. The winner was only beaten half a length in a Group 1 at Longchamp last weekend.

Bartholomew Fair 2.05 (e/w) @9-1 Bet365

Hail Clodius (e/w) 2.05 @20-1 Paddy Power non-runner

Albasharah 2.40 @11-2 William Hill

This Is The Day (e/w) 2.40 @18-1 Bet Victor

Connecticut (e/w) 3.10  @10-1 Skybet

Nabatean (e/w) 3.10 @12-1 Paddy Power

Suegioo (e/w) 3.50 @18-1 Paddy Power

Rhombus (e/w) 3.50 @25-1 Coral

York Friday Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

York stages a seven-race card on Friday with the going now officially soft after the midweek rain. There is a real end of season feel to the flat racing now with large fields as trainers try to get a run out of their horses before the winter sets in.

Acolyte looks as though he has the potential to be more than a 78 rated horse in the opening nursery for Roger Charlton. He finished third to the Group 2 winner Elm Park on his debut at Newbury before winning nicely at Kempton and he looks weighted to get us off to a winning start in the 2.00. The danger may come from The Wispe who was given a typically patient ride by Graham Lee last time out and sneaks in a the foot of the handicap.

The second race is a real cavalry charge with twenty runners over five furlongs. Bogart should go close under Amy Ryan after his excellent run at Ayr but I am siding with Long Awaited for David Barron. His “long suffering” supporters have been waiting for him to land a big sprint for some time but the omens were good at Haydock last time out when he stayed on well into fourth place and the yard are firing on all cylinders.

GM Hopkins looks very progressive for John Gosden and bids to defy a 9lbs rise in the weights in the featured mile handicap at 3.00. The horse was very impressive in a much tougher race at Newmarket last time out and will handle the soft ground without any problem. He certainly looks the least exposed in this field and can make it four wins on the bounce.

Kings Bayonet has been a good servant to the Alan King stable in the familiar Ponsonby colours and can land the 4.05 race under Hayley Turner. He was forced to switch around horses last time when a close fourth at Haydock and he is not the quickest animal in training. The danger is probably Emerahldz for Richard Fahey who has been very consistent all season.

Finally, Shouranour can provide the in-form David O’Meara with another winner in the closing apprentice handicap at 5.10. He got off the mark in fine style at Ayr last time over a mile but was pulling a cart with a furlong to travel and the drop back in trip won’t trouble him. The 9lbs rise in the handicap is more of a concern but he looks the pick of four runners in the race for the local trainer.

Acolyte 2.00 @7-2 Betfair

Long Awaited 2.30 @12-1 Bet365

GM Hopkins 3.00 @5-2 Ladbrokes

Kings Bayonet 4.05 @8-1 Ladbrokes

Shouranour 5.10 @13-2 BetVictor

Cesarewitch 2014 Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

The Cesarewitch Handicap at Newmarket always used to be one of my favourite races of the season. Back in the 1980’s it was not too difficult to find the winner with the likes of Popsi’s Joy, Halsbury, Mountain Lodge, Kayudee, Nomadic Way and Double Dutch all well fancied.

The same cannot be said of the most recent winners. First we had jump trainers monopolising the race such as Messrs Pipe, Hobbs and Henderson. That last four winners needed Mystic Meg with Aaim To Prosper winning twice (16-1 and 66-1) along with Never Can Tell (25-1) and Scatter Dice (66-1). Could we be in for a third successive “double carpet” winner this year?

Not according to the bookmakers who are running scared from Irish raider Quick Jack. The high-class hurdler won at Galway in July when hooded for the first time. It was not exactly the kind of race where you can rely on the form too much but the third horse was only just beaten at Ascot recently. By my calculations the horse has been raised 9lbs but there seems to be plenty of confidence behind him. If you have managed to get on at a double-figure price you should be well pleased but he is less tempting at around 6-1.

Big Easy and Ray Ward are next in the betting. The former was a staying on second in the trial race here last month but finished only 21st a year ago and has not won since scoring over three miles at Cheltenham in April last year. Ray Ward was behind Big Easy last time and was beaten by Teak at Goodwood in July. You have to go back just as far for his last victory. Teak followed up by winning over an extended three miles at Plumpton!

Maid In Rio bolted up at Ascot in July off a mark of 93 but is now 10lbs higher and has looked laboured in her last three races. Earth Amber was quietly fancied here a year ago and only beat one horse home. Her form varies from second in a Group 3 on the flat to second in a maiden hurdle at Fakenham!

I’ve been very impressed with Cam Hardie this season and he teams up with the progressive Rhombus for Ismael Mohammed. He carries only a 4lb penalty for his win at Newbury, a race in which he gave his rivals a good six lengths start. Waterclock was second here last year and is lower in the weights, unfortunately so low that he may not even get into the final line-up.

Big weights are not necessarily a bar to success in this race so Suegioo should not be discarded with 9st 8lb. Marco Botti’s gelding stayed on well at Doncaster last month behind Stomachion and should give Martin Harley a good ride.

Rhombus @25-1 Coral

Suegioo @18-1 Paddy Power

Each-way ¼ odds, 1,2,3,4,5 non-runner – no bet

Caulfield Guineas Preview

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

It is Guineas weekend at Caulfield and the big race is preceded by the Thousand Guineas on Saturday.

The Melbourne Racing Club’s decision to move the Group 1 Thousand Guineas to the Saturday is looking questionable after only eleven runners were declared. The option for runners from the Flight Stakes to run here has been virtually removed with only a week between races.

The favourite here is Go Indy Go, winner of last season’s Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick. Lumosty won her maiden race by nine lengths and has been all the rage this week with Craig Williams on board. Bring Me The Maid looks well drawn in barrier four and Peter Moody is hoping for an improved display in first-time blinkers after the filly flopped in the Guineas Prelude.

The winner that day was Afleet Esprit who could provide Damien Oliver with a sixth Thousand Guineas victory. David Hayes and Tom Dabernig’s star filly has only been out of the frame once in six starts and looks better value than the favourite.

Rich Enuff is the one horse that punters want to know in the Caulfield Guineas and his price has contracted to around 5-4 despite a wide draw. The son of Written Tycoon has not been prevented from winning in his last two starts by a similar disadvantage and has plenty of speed from the gate.

Gai Waterhouse has been quite bullish about the prospects of Almalad this week but she must have been disheartened to learn of his draw on the wide outside in stall 13. Almalad has chalked up victories in the J.J. Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm and the Bill Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley. Waterhouse is confident that he will prove good enough to take his chance in the Cox Plate but he will need to run a big race on Saturday to win from his draw.

Looks Like The Cat has finished runner-up to Rich Enuff on his last two starts and should run his usual game race but the one I think that could cause an upset is Shooting To Win. He was very impressive when beating Scissor Kick by three lengths in the Group 2 Stan Fox Stakes last time out. Barrier eight puts him on the inside of the fancied horses and he should be able to stay clear of trouble.

Shooting To Win (Caulfield Guineas) @7.50 Sportsbet

Afleet Esprit (Thousand Guineas) @6.0 Sportsbet