Category: Horse Racing Tips

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It’s Top Hat and Tails for Victoria Derby Day

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

AAMI Victoria Derby was once hailed as the greatest day of racing on the Australian turf calendar but like any major sporting event, it doesn’t hurt to tweak with the product to keep it fresh and relevant. Sydney stole the march on the Victoria Racing Club when it created its new autumn showpiece, The Championships, but credit to the VRC for a timely reboot of Derby Day. It’s still Group racing from top to bottom but bolstered by the addition of the AUD $1 million Cantala (formerly Emirates) Stakes over a mile.

That makes it four Groups 1s for the day – along with the $1.5 million AAMI Victoria Derby, there’s the Coolmore Stud Stakes for the three-year-old sprinters and the weight-for-age Myer Stakes for the fillies and mares. The forecast looks perfect too, with fine and mild conditions, a track rated a good (4) and the rail in the true position.

Vase form again looks priceless

The Victoria Derby pre-dates the Melbourne Cup by six years making it one of the oldest races in the world. The Derby is always a tricky affair to cap. The 2500m is a distance over which the bulk of the field haven’t been previously tested. It’s also a race where the jockey factor is way higher than normal. The successful hoop not only has to nurse his or her charge through an arduous staying test, but other runners slipping off the pace on the long Flemington straight fall back at an alarming rate.

Given the short run to the first turn, inside barriers have a significant advantage. The top rated Sacred Elixir ($3.10 favourite with William Hill) endured an ugly ride from Damian Lane in the G2 Vase (2040m) last week at Moonee Valley but still won with half-a-length to spare and again looks hard to toss.

Look to the lightweights in G1 mile

While there are only a handful of legitimate contenders in the Derby, the former Emirates (now Cantala) Stakes is a lottery for the country’s best milers at handicap conditions chasing a first prize of AUD $1 million. Nine years ago, Nikita Beriman became the first female jockey to win a Group 1 race in Victoria when she took out the 2007 edition on $101 chance Tears I Cry. Indeed, outsiders have fared well in this race, with 11 winners at $15 or over.

This race is normally a benefit for backmarkers, but Flemington tends to favour on-speed runners early in Cup week. The United States ($6 with Ladbrokes) makes a logical favourite based on his win in the G2 Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley last week, but closely consider the chances of Seaburge. He flashed home to just miss out in the Caulfield Guineas and carries just 50.5kg from barrier 2 here.

3yo sprint among Cup week highlights

If it runs up to expectation, the Coolmore Stud Stakes could be the race of the week. A very impressive class of two-year-olds are showing every sign that they’ll carry their form into their three-year-old season. Only two of the 10 runners have experienced the Flemington ‘Straight Six’ prior, with Saracino and Archives filling the quinella in the G2 Danehill on September 10. But the quality of the rest can’t be dismissed, highlighted by Golden Slipper winner Capitalist and Blue Diamond victor Extreme Choice (the $3 favourite with William Hill).

The real eye-catcher is Star Turn, a $4.40 hope for Team Hawkes from barrier 4. The Star Witness colt rated off the charts in his G3 San Domenico (Rosehill) and G2 Schillaci (Caulfield) victories and should have beaten Astern in the G2 Runto Rose in between those wins. He profiles very nicely for the ultimate sprint test in Australian thoroughbred racing.

Key Tips for a Winning Betting Mindset

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Many sports bettors just aren’t looking at things from the right angle.

Unless you enter the world of sports betting in the right frame of mind, then you are almost destined to struggle achieving success. To make money betting on sports, you need to think differently, to adopt new ways of thinking, and sometimes even to be counter intuitive.

Mindset – The Foundation of Success

Your mindset is simply a way of thinking that determines your behaviour, your outlook and your mental attitude. For any given set of betting events and their different outcomes, i.e. wins, losses, setbacks, and mistake, your mindset is the factor determining how you will respond to them. It’s the middleman between the events that happen to you and your reactions to those events. Your mindset can help you to be successful in your sports betting, or it can be the barrier that’s keeping you in the stalls unable to get out of the gate.

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There are several important cogs in the wheel that contribute to a true winning mindset when it comes to sports betting:

1. Take personal responsibility for your betting performance and results

Think back to a time when you had a losing bet or had a bad betting day. Who or what was the cause of the result you got? The bookie? The exchange? The horse? The team? The computer you were using? The room you were in? The weather? The dog ate your homework…I mean your form guide?

No, that’s right. You must understand that you, and you alone, are responsible for your own results. Your betting outcomes are your own creation. It is easy to find some other cause for your poor performance. We can all create stories that shift the focus and lay blame on an outside source and complain about a good bet that still lost.

Know that this is perfectly fine, and is likely to happen a lot. But instead of spitting the dummy and throwing away your bankroll in a tantrum, accept this as an opportunity for you to grow and learn what types of bets you should perhaps avoid in the future.

2. Becoming a Master of Betting

A mastery approach makes personal growth your number one priority. It allows you to make mistakes while focusing on a process of continual learning and development.

When you adopt a mastery approach, betting becomes a series of chances to improve, to develop new skills and understanding. Feedback from each bet and each day is important to development, and those with a mastery approach see feedback as an opportunity to learn, develop and improve performance.

A true master watches his own performance, and pays little attention to others or their opinions. They are always willing to accept responsibility for any outcome that they influenced, good or bad.

3. Embrace Risk and Come to Terms with Uncertainty

Sports betting is a risk taking endeavour, it is how you are rewarded, and if you want to be successful, then being able to embrace risk is key.

Don’t be afraid of risk. As a sports bettor, you are at the core a risk taker. Welcome risk, just as you will welcome the rewards that accompany it.

Sporting events are never a “sure thing”, and uncertainty is not an easy concept to deal with. Most of us fear the unknown, but would we really want to know what’s going to happen all the time, or would that remove the whole point, diluting the challenge, and the joy of the rewards?

Understand that you will never know for sure what is going to happen next, and in fact you don’t actually need to in order to be successful and profitable. Some sports bettors are addressing uncertainty and randomness by moving more towards sports trading approaches, backing and laying, trading in and out, taking profits at pre-chosen prices and not just waiting for the final outcome.

4. Focus on Managing Risk Not Picking Winners

A common misconception is that the primary focus should be on picking winners. However, to enjoy long term success in betting, you’ll need to shift your focus to managing your risk, and controlling losses rather than just on picking as many winners as possible. This leaves you open to continual learning that keeps you in the game, and enables you to improve your betting skills and become more profitable over time. Join Unibet today for the best tips to reduce your risk and start betting with a matched bonus up to $300.

5. Bet for Profits Not Fun

It might sound like a foreign concept, but some people like to bet just for ‘fun’. Ask yourself if your goal is having a bit of fun or to make some money?

Those who make bets for fun and excitement are less disciplined and more casual with their wagers as opposed to bettors that are looking to make a profit. So, if you’re looking to make a living from sports betting, you need to approach it as a business, and bet only for profit, never for the thrill and excitement of the punt! Focus on the flawless execution of your betting strategy.

6. Don’t Look for the Quick Buck

If making money from your sports betting is the objective, then take a big picture approach to your wagers and think long term. As with the tortoise and the hare, slow and steady wins the race. This might seem difficult to accept, particularly in today’s age of instant gratification and fast food, but it really is the only way you will survive over the long haul and become a successful sports bettor.

7. Enjoy Small Wins

When you’re a new bettor, any victory feels like Christmas! But over time, small wins just don’t give you the same adrenaline rush and satisfaction that you once got as a less experienced bettor. Don’t make the mistake of throwing more cash on certain games simply because you want to cash in big!

Many successful sports betters achieve their results by having multiple small wins that outweigh their small losses. They are risk managers. They enjoy the process of winning and get their buzz from seeing their bank balance grow over time, and not from one-off short term quick fixes.

8. Respect Your Bankroll

Money can have emotional and psychological effects on people and the decisions they make. How you think about money can affect how you bet and the outcomes you get.

Manage your betting bankroll as if your life depended on it. Don’t bet big in an effort to recoup a handful of losses in one fell swoop and don’t ‘over-bet’ what you know logically that you can’t afford to lose. Respect your money, and always remember that if you take care of your bankroll, long term it will take care of you too. Get off to a flying start with Sportsbet, enjoy a matched bonus bet up to a massive $501! Click here to Join today.

9. Believe you can be a winner

Do you believe it is possible to win at sports betting? At the end of the day, it’s all about the mindset. If you believe you can be successful at sports betting, then you are half way there.

Like a successful athlete, you’ve got to believe in yourself and your ability to emerge with the win. Plus, don’t forget that the availability and accessibility of information and data today has significantly increased to give you an extra edge.

Why not take the opportunity to exercise your winning mindset this Emirates Stakes Day at Ladbrokes. You’ll find more information, data and analysis available about Spring Carnival than at any other time of the year. So, take advantage of the insight available to you, put some our nine keys to the test, and see if you come out ahead at the end of the Carnival.

Just remember that success in sports betting is possible; you may be able to achieve it yourself, but it will take time and effort, it will take a professional approach, and it will take discipline. To start becoming a winning bettor, sign up here with William Hill and enjoy a bonus bet equal to your first deposit up to $500!

Melbourne Cup Carnival an Event for Everyone

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

For the hardcore punters, Melbourne’s Spring Racing Carnival is a three-month long festival of black-type racing and a celebration of the champions of the Australasian turf. But for the majority of those with just a passing interest in the sport of kings, the four days of the Melbourne Cup Carnival at Flemington are about as long as their attention span (and funds) will stretch.

It’s not hard to see where the Victoria Racing Club (VRC) focusses its energies either, with nary a mention or image of a thoroughbred racehorse on their homepage. But despite interest waning over the past decade (attendances have dropped about 25 per cent in that period, down from a staggering 418,069 in 2006), this four-day festival is, for the bulk of the Australian population, the only time they’ll pick up a form guide each year.

WFA feature highlights carnival finale

The structure of the Melbourne Cup Carnival has changed little in recent history – AAMI Victoria Derby on the first Saturday (October 29 this year), Emirates Melbourne Cup Day on the first Tuesday in November, Crown Oaks Day on Thursday (November 3) and Emirates Stakes Day on the final Saturday (November 5).

But in a significant change this year, the Emirates Stakes has been shifted to Derby Day and renamed the Cantala Stakes (it remains a Group 1 race over 1600m). Confusingly, the VRC have shifted the L.K.S. MacKinnon Stakes from Derby Day to the final day, and have renamed it the Emirates Stakes! It remains a weight-for-age race over 2000 metres although prizemoney has been boosted to AUD $2 million. It was hoped that dual Cox Plate winner Winx would run, but she’s been sent to the paddock after last Saturday’s remarkable win.

An appropriate arena for racing royalty

In stark contrast to the tight and tricky Moonee Valley layout around which Winx again smashed her rivals, Flemington is all about space. The course proper is just over 2300m and features one tight corner just after the winning post, and a sweeping turn from the 1300m mark until the start of the home straight around 500m from home.

Uniquely, all races up to 1200m are run down Flemington’s famous ‘Straight Six’, culminating in the AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Darley Classic on the final day of the carnival. It’s quite a sight (and a racecaller’s nightmare) to see runners spread right across the track in search of the best ground. The Melbourne Cup combines both courses, starting at the 1000m mark before runners complete a full circuit of the main track to complete the most famous 3200 metres in the sport.

155 years on, it’s still that race that stops a nation

The highlight of the week is, of course, the AUD $6 million Emirates Melbourne Cup. One of the world’s great handicap contests, the Melbourne Cup is also much more than a horse race – it’s a revered sporting, social and cultural event, that continues to play a significant role in defining Australia’s national identity.

Scores of TAB and picnic race meetings across the nation (almost 50 this year), along with thousands of office parties and BBQs on Melbourne Cup Day help define the event as the race that truly stops the nation. At second acceptances on Monday, 32 horses remain in contention for one of the 24 starting positions. Hartnell, which finished eight lengths second to Winx in Saturday’s Cox Plate, is the $4.60 favourite with William Hill ahead of Caulfield Cup winner Jameka ($6.50). Saturday’s Lexus Stakes is the last chance to earn a guaranteed start.

Weather Set To Turn 2016 Cox Plate Upside Down

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

There’s an old adage in Melbourne relating to the city’s infamous changeable weather: “If you don’t like it, just wait five minutes”. Unfortunately, that’s the case on Cox Plate Eve as a bright and mild Thursday gives way to strong winds and heavy rain (up to 25 millimetres), progressing to hail by Saturday! It’s a nightmare scenario for the Moonee Valley Racing Club with 18 races scheduled on their track in a 24-hour period and for the Cox Plate betting. The track started Friday rated a good (3) but the heavens are expected to open in the early afternoon leading to likely downgrades as the day progresses. The rail will start tonight’s Manikato Stakes meeting in the true position.

Watch and learn

The changeable conditions are also not ideal for punters, but it’s not all doom and gloom. The rail will be moved out for the Cox Plate card (probably three metres) leaving a fresh alley along the fence. In the second half of both meetings, jockeys will be looking for the best racing surface – no matter how wide that may be. So the track will probably favour on-pace runners early, with the backmarkers steadily improving their strike rate as the races tick by. Similarly, inside barrier draws from the chute starts of the 1200m (the Manikato Stakes) and 2040m (Cox Plate) are not going to provide the advantage riders would normally expect.

Contender on the drift

Such has been the anticipation of the head-to-head showdown between Winx and Hartnell in the AUD $3,000,000 William Hill Cox Plate that the race could be run down Swanston Street and people would still pack the route. The money has flowed to Winx over the past 24 hours, with her price into $1.80 from $1.95 with William Hill. Hartnell has been an alarming drifter from $3.00 to $3.60. To the naked eye, punters clearly thought the lead Godolphin contender could threaten the superstar mare’s 12-race winning streak. After all, he smashed a Turnbull field in which subsequent Caulfield Cup Jameka finished a distant runner-up. Does that put him on equal footing with Winx?

Winx, and say no more

In short, no. Taking a close look at the respective benchmark ratings, Hartnell’s numbers have been basically static over the past two seasons. He’s a very good horse, but his form hasn’t shown any marked improvement this prep. Neither has Winx, but her rating in the 2015 Cox Plate was simply staggering. She hasn’t been seriously tested this campaign, but still managed to defeat a dual G1 winner Black Hart Bart in the Caulfield Stakes without being shifted out of third gear. The weather and state of the track create fresh x-factors but on paper, Winx looks a clear two lengths better than Hartnell (and the rest) so $1.80 is worth serious consideration.

Looking outside the obvious

With such extreme conditions now more than likely, an upset has to be considered. The French runner Vadamos may have been a contender, but his inside draw is far from ideal and he’ll put on the speed with Hartnell and Black Heart Bart, which will set them up to be swamped. The three-year-old filly Yankee Rose carries just 47.5kg but she’s untried on a genuine wet surface and still races somewhat greenly. The contender now coming into play is Kris Lee’s six-year-old mare Lucia Valentina. She won the Sydney equivalent of the Cox Plate (the Queens Elizabeth Stakes) in the autumn, loves the wet and has been drawn out of trouble in nine of 10.

Irish duck eyes Gold Cup

The other highlight of the day is the AUD $300,000 Group 2 Antler Luggage Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m. The relevance of this race to the Melbourne Cup had waned in recent years until a then-virtually unknown gelding Prince Of Penzance emerged victorious in 2014, a year before his historic win in the Melbourne Cup. The $4.20 for Gallante with William Hill looks an absolute gift. The Irish-bred six-year-old gelding for Team Williams cruised home in the Sydney Cup (3200m) in the autumn and finished behind only Jameka in the G3 Naturalism (2000m) a month ago at Caulfield. And he’s a perfect two for two on heavy going!

Dream Clash Highlights Stellar Cox Plate Weekend

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

All three of Melbourne’s metropolitan racing clubs are vastly different but the quirkiest of the lot is the one tucked away in the memorably named north-western suburb of Moonee Ponds. Despite several threats to its existence over the years (mostly due to the vast value of its land), the Moonee Valley Racing Club remains a vibrant part of the nation’s thoroughbred landscape for two major reasons – its annual summer night racing program, and its most famous race, the W.S. Cox Plate. For the purists, this is the most anticipated event of Melbourne’s spring carnival – 2040 metres around the tricky Valley layout at weight-for-age conditions. And after a few lean years in terms of quality, the 2016 edition is shaping up as one of the greatest ever.

Tight and tricky

But to join the likes of Kingston Town, Bonecrusher, Better Loosen Up, Might And Power, Sunline, Northerly and So You Think, Cox Plate contenders must first conquer one of the most idiosyncratic racecourses on the planet. From above, it looks pretty standard with four turns but there are almost no straight runs so runners race on an almost-continuous curve until they reach a home straight that comprises just 173 metres. However, there’s a stack on camber on the turns, so horses that can maintain a high cruising speed perform well here. It’s like a NASCAR super speedway for thoroughbreds. On-pace runners are generally favoured, but a horse with a short, sharp sprint can win from six- or seven-wide!

“That’s the way it’s gonna be, little darling”

The Valley’s eccentric features don’t end there. The main grandstand is very close to the track, giving the venue a stadium feel similar to that of Happy Valley in Hong Kong. The meeting is run over two days, with the AUD $1,000,000 Group 1 Manikato Stakes highlighting Friday night’s card ahead of the Cox Plate meeting on Saturday. That’s 18 races in a 24-hour period. Another unique tradition that has become a fixture prior to the Cox Plate is a stirring rendition of The Horses by former Aussie 70s heartthrob Daryl Braithwaite. It’s quite an experience to hear 25,000 well-refreshed racegoers screaming along Karaoke-style, but the sing-a-long has also spooked more than a few Cox Plate runners through the years.

Galloping grey looks special

Named in honour of the superstar sprinter which won this race (then known as the Freeway Stakes) twice and the William Reid Stakes on an unprecedented five successive occasions (1979-1983), the 2016 edition of the Manikato Stakes has attracted a field of 11, including triple winner Buffering, the world’s highest rated sprinter Chautauqua (a $2.20 favourite with William Hill) and 2015 Golden Slipper winner Capitalist (a clear second pick at $6.00). An inside draw is valuable from the 1200m start at the Valley, and the Hawkes team came up trumps with barrier 1 for their eye-catching grey/bay 6yo gelding. The 1000m of the Moir was a bit sharp for him first-up, but seven of his 12 wins have come at this distance, and he’s going to be mighty hard to toss.

Winx v Hartnell, or can another surprise?

Speaking of gun runs, 2015 Cox Plate winner Winx has landed in barrier 3 for the $3,000,000 William Hill Cox Plate. She should find a terrific spot in transit with French contender Vadamos and lightweight hope Yankee Rose drawn on her inside. Punters have become accustomed to Winx starting deep in the red, but the 5yo mare is a surprisingly generous $1.95 with William Hill to secure her 13th successive win. That’s due to the presence of Hartnell ($3.00), with the Godolphin gelding drawing barrier 7 of 10 for the WFA championship of Australasia. He smashed the field in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington two weeks ago, defeating Jameka by 3.25 lengths. That same mare cruised to victory by a similar margin in last week’s Caulfield Cup!

Caulfield Cup Silverware Heading Abroad Once Again?

Posted on by Online Betting Pro

Barely a decade ago, Caulfield Cup Day was, how should we put this delicately, unpleasant. The Melbourne Racing Club would pack the course tighter than a camel’s backside in a sandstorm. In 2005, more than 50,000 sardines crammed into the Heath to watch Railings win the Caulfield Cup. But the public’s taste for over-priced and over-crowded racedays has waned since those halcyon days of the 2000s so barely 30,000 will watch Saturday’s $3,000,000 BMW Caulfield Cup on track. That means we’re likely to be spared that priceless experience of mile-long bar/tote queues behind thousands of private school kids in dodgy suits with even dodgier IDs.

Aussie thoroughbred royalty

There’s still one place that’s assured to be packed to capacity on Caulfield Cup Day – the barriers for the day’s feature. With the scratching of Fanatic, De Little Engine has earned a call-up to ensure an 18-horse field. The richest 2400m handicap in the world was first run in 1879 when won by Newminster. The honour roll reads like a hall of fame list – from Rising Fast, Tulloch and Galilee to Ming Dynasty, Might And Power and Northerly. Just 11 horses have taken out the Caulfield-Melbourne Cups double in the same year (last achieved in 2001 by Ethereal) while only seven horses have won the race twice.

Dunaden and dusted

The media mercilessly hype the presence of the international runners in town for the Melbourne Cup. History shows that those horses have an abysmal record without a first-up run in Australia, but it’s a much different story when they have their debut run at the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup. Four genuine international runners – Taufan’s Melody (1998), All The Good (2008), Dunaden (2012) and Admire Ratki (2014) – have all shown that it’s possible to win this race without a previous start Down Under. Indeed, the victory of Dunaden stands out as arguably the greatest in the race’s history. A year after he won the Melbourne Cup, Dunaden became the first horse to win the Caulfield Cup from wider than barrier 15 (starting from gate 18), and the first to win after being allotted the top weight at acceptances (58kg).

Taking on the favourite

It’s virtually impossible to draw an accurate speedmap for this year’s Cup, but it certainly looms as a year where the visitors could pinch another win. Jameka (gate 13) is an easing $4.00 favourite with Ladbrokes and she leads a fairly lacklustre bunch of local contenders. The 4yo mare’s only win at this distance was her plodding effort on a bog track in last year’s VRC Oaks. She looked terrific when second to Hartnell in the Turnbull (2000m) after crushing the G3 Naturalism (2000m) field at Caulfield two back. However, barrier 13 is a tricky alley, and Nicholas Hall may struggle to have her better than three-out in the running. She’s a clear top pick among the Aussies but unders at 3-1.

Scottish the one to beat

The money has started to trickle in the direction of Scottish, but it’s likely to be more of a flood closer to the jump. The Irish-bred 5yo gelding for Charlie Appleby and the Godolphin team should be closer to the speed than the bulk of his UK rivals. He has been to 2400m before with the highlight a 1.5-length second to Highland Reel, with five lengths back to third. All four of his wins have been on firm ground, and he’ll get a good (3-4)run with mild conditions forecast for Melbourne over the next 48 hours. Metropolitan winner Sir John Hawkwood offers the best value at $15 (William Hill).